Baseball’s Game of Thrones: Dynastic Succession

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In my first post, earlier today, I pointed out that the Yankees led the majors in regular season wins over the five-year periods from 2007 through 2011, 2006 through 2010 and 2005 through 2009 — with exactly the same number of total wins over each of those five-year periods. One can look at the full sequence of such five-year periods through baseball history, and by doing so look at which team, at the end of each season, was at that moment the “Best Team of the Past Five Years”.

This method gives a look at which team was most consistently around the top of major league baseball during various eras. After the jump, you’ll see a full list, beginning with 2011 and going back to the beginning of the 20th Century, showing for each year the team that had the best overall record over the five then-most-recent regular seasons. So, for example, when the list below shows the Yankees as the “Best Team of the Past Five Years” in every season from 2004 through 2011, that means the Yanks had the best five-season record overall during each of the following five-year periods: 2000 to 2004, 2001 to 2005, 2002 to 2006, 2003 to 2007, 2004 to 2008, 2005 to 2009, 2006 to 2010 and 2007 to 2011.

With that introduction, here’s a summary of which team has held the “Best Team of the Past Five Years” crown after each season, going back to the beginning of the 20th century:

Yankees, 2004 through 2011
Braves, 2003
Yankees, 2002
Braves, 1994 through 2001
Blue Jays, 1993
A’s, 1991 and 1992
Mets, 1988 through 1990
Tigers, 1985 through 1987
Orioles, 1981 through 1984
Yankees, 1980
Reds, 1975 through 1979
Orioles, 1969 through 1974
Giants, 1968
White Sox, 1967
Dodgers, 1966
Yankees, 1950 through 1965
Cardinals, 1944 through 1949
Yankees, 1934 through 1943
A’s, 1929 through 1933
Yankees, 1927 and 1928
Giants, 1925 and 1926
Yankees, 1923 and 1924
Giants, 1921 and 1922
White Sox, 1919 and 1920
Red Sox, 1916 through 1918
Giants, 1915
A’s 1913 and 1914
Cubs, 1907 through 1912
Pirates, 1905 and 1906

The string of dominance by the Yankees on this list since 2004 is actually in danger of being broken this coming season. Overall over the past four seasons – 2008 through 2011 – the Yankees and Phillies are in an exact tie, each with an overall record over those four regular seasons of 384 wins and 264 losses (.593 winning percentage). Whichever of those two teams emerges from 2012 with the better regular season record will likely hold the 2012 crown as the top team of the past five years.

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TheGoof

12 years ago

Interesting how the only two teams not to win a pennant in that stretch had back-to-back appearances on this list, Chicago 1967 and SF 1968.

Dr. Remulak

12 years ago

The Yankees stretch of 16 straight years of 5-year leadership is a record unlikely to be broken. As good as the Yankees current run has been, they are only halfway to the mark set by the Yanks in the 1950-1965 stretch.

Doug

12 years ago

Interesting stuff, birtelcom. Dynastic dominance used to correlate fairly well with World Series rings, but since expansion, that pattern has broken down. Having to win more than one post-season series is no doubt a factor. Yankees, 2004 through 2011 – 1 for 8 Braves, 2003 – nope Yankees, 2002 – nope Braves, 1994 through 2001 – 1 for 8 Blue Jays, 1993 – batting 1.000 A’s, 1991 and 1992 – 0 for 2 Mets, 1988 through 1990 – 0 for 2 Tigers, 1985 through 1987 – 0 for 4 Orioles, 1981 through 1984 – 0 for 4 Yankees, 1980 –… Read more »

oneblankspace

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Who won the Series in 1983?

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to oneblankspace

Right you are. Make it one for those Orioles.

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

I think you noted the issue when you wrote “some of these teams did have championships in the years immediately preceding.” The Yankees 2002 ranking comprises 1998-2002, when they won three championships, yet 2002 was passed the peak of that dynasty run (although more on that in a second). I suspect there would be a higher liklihood of the best-five-year record happening after the peak when those teams have already accomplished their best records. It certainly wouldn’t happen at the start. I believe Bill James did an analysis that showed teams’ period of greatness, no matter how that was defined,… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to MikeD

Well, I’m a Braves nut but you’d surprised at how many Braves fans are out there and don’t consider their run a “dynasty”. Believe it or not, after 1999, there was a lot of anti-Bobby Cox bias among Braves fans, as if it was his fault they couldn’t win more than one World Series. I think their 14 straight division titles is a record that won’t be touched for a very, very long time, across all professional sports. You’ve got to give Cox tons of credit for doing it that many years in a row, especially near the end of… Read more »

Dr. Doom

12 years ago

This is probably one of my favorite posts ever on this site, birtelcom. Awesome, AWESOME work. ’63-’67 ChiSox! Who knew? Actually, @Doug, those ’67 Sox were closer than you’re giving them credit for. Entering that famed last weekend, they were still in contention (although they did finish 3 games out). I was once at an event featuring Harmon Killebrew, and he said that he always considered the ’67 team to be about as good as the Twins’ pennant winners of that era. Possibly the oddest thing for me involves the 2002 Yanks. They won the AL every year from 1998-2003,… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Goodness those ’67 Sox could pitch!
Team era+ of 123.
Second best were the Twins at 111.

They had eight pitchers with an era+ of at least 122.
That’s with a minimum of 41 innings, that 41 guy being rookie Cisco Carlos.
September callup with a 0.87 era, including a 10-inning shutout.

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

And, on the subject of era+, Pedro Martinez had 5 of the top 16 seasons since 1920, including #1.

Clemens had 3
Maddux, 2 (#2 and 3)

One each from:
Gibson
Gooden
Grove
K Brown
Guidry
Greinke

(that’s alotta G-men)

Dr. Doom

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Guidry’s and Greinke’s and, of course, Gibson’s appearances on this list are the most impressive, I would say, simply because of how much easier it is to have a high ERA+ when the run environment is higher, as it makes the numerator higher. I mean, they’re all fabulous seasons, but Pedro was 3.17 better than the league in 2000. It would’ve been awfully difficult for Bob Gibson to be 3.17 R better than the league in 1968 when then league ERA was 2.99. The point is, it’s probably not all that surprising that the biggest seasons come in the biggest… Read more »

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

I suggested something similar the other day that the top pitchers may have suffered a bit of ERA+ compression during low-offense times such at the 1960s, making it a little bit more difficult for the best pitchers to distance themselves from the pack.

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birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

The math is well beyond me, but very smart people who study this stuff have concluded that in fact the bias of ERA+ is just the opposite, that the contribution to team wins by top pitchers in very low run-scoring environments is actually over-rated by ERA+ as compared to the contribution of top pitchers in high run-scoring environments:http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/moving-beyond-era/

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Birtelcom, yes, that would actually make sense. If Pedro Martinez was pitching in 1968 in Chavez Ravine he’s still going to by unhittable, but his ERA+ will not be as high. Bob Gibson in 1968 had a 1.12 ERA, yet still was credited with nine losses.

It’s better to be a dominant pitcher in a high-scoring environment.

Our statements don’t disagree.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Well, Mike, birtelcom’s article actually says that we are “undervaluing” Pedro and Maddux’s recent dominant years, even despite the two of them putting up 4 of the 10 best ERA+ seasons of all-time. ERA+ already suggests these four seasons are better than Gibson in ’68, but the article suggests the actual gap in value to their respective teams may be even wider than we thought.

Editor

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

In a recent post, Cisco Carlos was identified as the pitcher with the most IP (41.2) in a season in which he allowed ZERO extra-base hits. His streak ended on a Yastrzemski HR in his first start of 1968.

A longer in-season streak (50.1 innings) was achieved by Tom Murphy of the Angels in 1968, also in his rookie season.

oneblankspace

12 years ago

And then in 1969, the Cubs came close for the first time in a long time, and everybody in the western suburbs became Cub fans.

The other years the Sox led the 5-year totals they had 2 pennants under their belts. They won one of the Series and probably could have won the other if they had wanted to.

AlbaNate

12 years ago

Birtelcom–could you do this for worst team over five year periods?

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to AlbaNate

Are you a fan of one of these bad teams looking for punishment? : -)

AlbaNate

12 years ago

Reply to MikeD

Yes. My team didn’t do well on B’s list, but I suspect they’ll be a champ on the one I’ve suggested.

🙁

kzuke

12 years ago

Reply to AlbaNate

…or perhaps a five-year rolling run differential dynasty? Nice post btw

PhilM

12 years ago

Reply to kzuke

I’ve got the annual run differential data for each team, since it’s instrumental to my Z/root team quality calculation — I’ll see what I can come up with sometime today.

PhilM

12 years ago

Reply to kzuke

Here we go. Of course, pure run differential isn’t the be-all and end-all, which is why the Rockies ruled 1993-1997. The standardized differential is a better measure, and maybe I’ll run those numbers next. From To Team Diff 1901 1905 NYG 486 1902 1906 NYG 304 1903 1907 CHW 211 1904 1908 PHI 272 1905 1909 DET 263 1906 1910 BOS 317 1907 1911 PHA 189 1908 1912 BOS 204 1909 1913 WAS 311 1910 1914 BSN 315 1911 1915 BSN 359 1912 1916 BSN 257 1913 1917 CHW 202 1914 1918 CLE 228 1915 1919 CIN 245 1916 1920… Read more »

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birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to PhilM

I’m not quite sure what these numbers represent. For the 5-season period 2007 to 2011, I get (using b-ref’s “Situational Records” tool) the following total regular season differentials between runs scored and runs allowed:
Yanks 791
Red Sox 709
Phillies 617
Angels 294
Braves 291
Rays/Dodgers 236

PhilM

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

No, I’m wrong: I was using difference between years (1901 minus 1905, for instance). I’ll have fixed numbers in a moment.

PhilM

12 years ago

Reply to kzuke

Sorry about that — I had picked up some formulas without looking at them that closely. Here are the correct teams, in five-year intervals since 1901-1905. For those where the five-year Z/root (standardized run differential adjusted for league size) is different, I listed that team as well. This more like it: From To Team Diff Z/root Team Diff Z/root 1901 – 1905 PIT 962 .429 1902 – 1906 PIT 873 .389 1903 – 1907 CHC 911 .420 1904 – 1908 CHC 978 .456 1905 – 1909 CHC 1141 .525 1906 – 1910 CHC 1129 .565 1907 – 1911 CHC 955… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to PhilM

Good to see an analysis that confirms the awsomeness of the Tinkers to Evers to Chance Cubs. Their differentials in 1905-09 and 1906-10 are amongst the very highest ever, all the more impressive considering this was in the middle of the deadball era.

Hub Kid

12 years ago

Very interesting post, birtelcom. I love this kind of stuff. The ranked lists of “most pennants”, “most World Series championships”, “most wins” all are depressing for non-Yankees fans, but this is a bit more interesting, and I don’t think Yankees fans can say that there is any anti-Yankees bias in it, since they get the most of these runs. The “rolling five year” concept is a bit hard for me to get my head around, but that doesn’t mean i don’t find it interesting and useful. I guess it means there is sort of a two tier process, and the… Read more »

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Andy

12 years ago

I love the title of this post…best one I have seen on this blog in pretty much forever.

Dr. Doom

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

Actually, I was not even sure it beat the “Y Robot” title from this morning, but then I haven’t read/watched Game of Thrones, so while I get the reference, it just doesn’t mean as much, I guess.

James Smyth

12 years ago

Great post. Interesting that the Giants have it for 64-68 given that the Cardinals won three pennants during that five-year stretch.

SF won 457 games and thanks in part to a sub-.500 1965, STL only totaled 454.