Going Home … or Not

This post is about two players who had unusual run scoring accomplishments in 2011.

Curtis Granderson joined a short list of players since 1961 whose runs scored were more than half their times on base. Conversely, Casey Kotchman joined an even shorter list of players who failed to score over 80% of the time they reached base. That’s quite a range.

Here’s the first list. These are players in qualifying seasons since 1961 scoring more than half the time they reach base.

Rk Player Year OPS+ R TOBwe Age Tm G PA H HR BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Curtis Granderson 2011 138 136 252 30 NYY 156 691 153 41 85 169 25 10 .262 .364 .552 .916 *8/D
2 Carlos Beltran 2006 150 127 252 29 NYM 140 617 140 41 95 99 18 3 .275 .388 .594 .982 *8/D
3 David Dellucci 2005 126 97 192 31 TEX 128 518 109 29 76 121 5 3 .251 .367 .513 .879 *D7/89
4 Jose Valentin 2004 92 73 145 34 CHW 125 504 97 30 43 139 8 6 .216 .287 .473 .760 *6/D
5 Alfonso Soriano 2002 129 128 254 26 NYY 156 741 209 39 23 157 41 13 .300 .332 .547 .880 *4/D
6 Ivan Rodriguez 1999 125 116 231 27 TEX 144 630 199 35 24 64 25 12 .332 .356 .558 .914 *2/D
7 Alex Rodriguez 1999 134 110 213 23 SEA 129 572 143 42 56 109 21 7 .285 .357 .586 .943 *6
8 Steve Finley 1997 110 101 196 32 SDP 143 615 146 28 43 92 15 3 .261 .313 .475 .788 *8
9 Jim Edmonds 1995 129 120 219 25 CAL 141 620 162 33 51 130 1 4 .290 .352 .536 .888 *8
10 Kirk Gibson 1994 129 71 140 37 DET 98 382 91 23 42 69 4 5 .276 .358 .548 .906 *D89
11 Eric Davis 1987 155 120 232 25 CIN 129 562 139 37 84 134 50 6 .293 .399 .593 .991 *8/7
12 Rickey Henderson 1985 157 146 281 26 NYY 143 654 172 24 99 65 80 10 .314 .419 .516 .934 *8/7D
13 Tony Armas 1984 121 107 212 30 BOS 157 679 171 43 32 156 1 3 .268 .300 .531 .831 *8D/9
14 Robin Yount 1980 130 121 220 24 MIL 143 647 179 23 26 67 20 5 .293 .321 .519 .840 *6/D
15 Willie Wilson 1979 106 113 225 23 KCR 154 640 185 6 28 92 83 12 .315 .351 .420 .771 *78/9D
16 Zoilo Versalles 1965 115 126 240 25 MIN 160 728 182 19 41 122 27 5 .273 .319 .462 .781 *6
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/13/2012.
 

Granderson has the 3rd highest rate of these 16 players, at 54%, behind only Robin Yount and Jim Edmonds. Yount’s 55% is one of only 13 seasons at that level since 1901 (the last time prior to Yount was Joe DiMaggio in 1936). Notice also the last two entries on the list where the player’s runs scored was higher than his OPS+, two of 78 times this happened in the period with OPS+ of 100 or more.

Some surprises:

  • Pudge Rodriguez, although this was young Pudge and he did steal 25 bases in this season
  • A 37 year-old Kirk Gibson, with all his battle scars
  • Armas, Edmonds, Delucci, Valentin, Gibson – all with single digit stolen bases
  • Willie Wilson making the list with only 6 home runs, while everyone else was mashing (to some degree)

Not a surprise:

  • Lots of high slugging percentages, indicating lots of doubles and triples to go with the healthy home run totals (always easier to score from second)
  • Not many walks and lots of strikeouts – limits times reaching base and only getting to first

Now for the other end of the spectrum. Same period and scoring less than 20% of the time reaching base.

 
Rk Player Year OPS+ R TOBwe Age Tm G PA H HR BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Casey Kotchman 2011 128 44 221 28 TBR 146 563 153 10 48 66 2 .306 .378 .422 .800 *3
2 Yadier Molina 2010 84 34 177 27 STL 136 521 122 6 42 51 8 .262 .329 .342 .671 *2/3
3 Rey Ordonez 2001 67 31 156 30 NYM 149 505 114 3 34 43 3 .247 .299 .336 .635 *6
4 Jose Oquendo 1990 85 38 194 26 STL 156 553 118 1 74 46 1 .252 .350 .316 .666 *4/6
5 Jose Oquendo 1988 102 36 184 24 STL 148 518 125 7 52 40 4 .277 .350 .350 .700 4563/98721
6 Milt May 1981 118 20 138 30 SFG 97 354 98 2 34 29 1 .310 .376 .383 .759 *2
7 Mario Guerrero 1978 87 27 169 28 OAK 143 546 139 3 15 35 0 .275 .302 .345 .647 *6
8 Fred Kendall 1976 77 30 159 27 SDP 146 505 112 2 36 42 1 .246 .302 .296 .598 *2
9 Leo Cardenas 1972 70 25 168 33 CAL 150 602 123 6 35 73 1 .223 .272 .283 .555 *6
10 Ollie Brown 1971 107 36 193 27 SDP 145 542 132 9 52 74 3 .273 .346 .362 .707 *9/8
11 Tom Haller 1968 128 37 187 31 LAD 144 534 135 4 46 76 1 .285 .345 .388 .733 *2
12 Ron Hansen 1967 95 35 188 29 CHW 157 575 116 8 64 51 0 .233 .317 .321 .638 *6
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/13/2012.

Kotchman really stands out on this list. Only guy slugging over .400 and tied with Tom Haller for highest OPS+. Unlike Haller, though, Kotchman wasn’t playing in 1968 for the lowest run-scoring team (with 470) in the league. So, what happened?

Looking at the Rays batting order, Kotchman batted in lots of different spots, but seems to have had Upton hitting behind him most often, especially in the latter part of the season. Upton had a respectable 81 RBI and scored (albeit as a much faster runner) almost twice as often as Kotchman, even with an OBP almost 50 points lower. So, something of a mystery why Kotchman couldn’t score more often.

As for the rest of the list, not many surprises. Several catchers, no speed or power (most slugging percentages are very close to or even lower than OBPs), so not many opportunities to reach base in scoring position. Milt May had the lowest run scoring rate at 14.5%, despite having the highest BA and second highest OBP in this group.

Finally, if you’re wondering why I started at 1961, here are the numbers for each group for 1901 to 1960.

  • Over 50% – 100 times, only twice after 1948
  • Under 20% – 53 times, only once after 1943

Evidently, quite different dynamics pre-expansion and post-expansion. So, will take a look in a future post at what was happening in the old days.

 

 

 

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Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
12 years ago

Amazing post, Doug. You’re a great addition to the HHS team. I knew of Granderson’s success at run-scoring, though I didn’t quite realize just how historic it was. But as for Kotchman – ouch. I had no idea. Nice job!

Mike L
Mike L
12 years ago

Nice post, Doug. Looking at the chart, all I can say is that Granderson and friends must have run to the score.

MikeD
MikeD
12 years ago

The other thing that leaps out here is speed. A high percentage of the guys on the first list have 20 or more SBs, with Carlon Beltran just missing one season with 18. Not a single player on the bottom list had a single season reaching double digits in SBs, and collectively only had 25. Looking at the top list, even some of the low SB guys like Gibson and Edmonds were known as good baserunners. The act of stealing a base helps, but it probably indicates the obvious, which is players with speed have a better chance of scoring… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
12 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

I guess that Tony Armas would be the “Exception that proves the rule”. Here’s a guy with a lousy OBA, not a base stealer, not even a very good baserunner,but somehow he’s 5th in the 1984 AL in runs scored with 107.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
12 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

Also meant to add to #8 above:

He did hit 43 HR,but most sluggers of his sort don’t score a lot off runs. As I recall, Armas usually batted 4th, with Easler/ Buckner 5th and 6th (or reversed), then Gedman – decent RBI guys, but it doesn’t look like they had great RBI years in 1984. I guess it’ll remain a mystery.

Paul E
Paul E
12 years ago

Kotchman scores at about a 29% clip for his career. Apparently, he doesn’t run real well with less than 20 SB in his entire professional career. Supposedly, a good glove; however, I imagine if a first baseman doesn’t hit 20 HR’s, and doesn’t run well, management tells the public that he’s a slick fielder…..

Paul E
Paul E
12 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug:
Good point. A guy who hits like Kotchman would have to do an awful lot of fielding to make up for the lack of power and, in his case, foot speed.
Incredibly, despite his obvious lack of foot speed, he was a 1st round pick — out of high school, no less. It just seems teams are always picking “toolsy” athletes early, hoping for a bigger upside.
Interesting subject and great research

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

In all fairness, baseball players are incredibly hard to project. Just looking at the year that Kotchman was drafted, he went 13th out of 44 1st round picks. His career WAR (6.0) is underwhelming but it’s actually 7th best of the 1st round picks that year. 18 never made the majors, another 8 made the majors but produced negative WAR, another 5 produced less than 1.0 WAR. This is true of any year that you look at. Most 1st round picks never have any success in the majors. And it gets worse in the later rounds. For example in the… Read more »

Jimbo
Jimbo
12 years ago

Eric Davis 1987 = Incredible.

Paul E
Paul E
12 years ago
Reply to  Jimbo

Reds came to Philly for a weekend in May 1987. Davis went 9 for 13 with 5 Homers and 13 RBI in three games

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

I well remember his torrid start in ’87. After seeming to come out of nowhere in ’86, Davis opened ’87 with a 23-game stretch of .411 BA, 12 HRs, 27 Runs, 23 RBI (including that Phillly series), and the Reds were in first place at 17-8 (he missed 2 games). He looked like he could be the best player of his generation. Not quite. Remember how good the ’92 Dodgers were going to be, when Davis joined his pal Darryl Strawberry? (LA had won 93 games the year before but lost the division on the final weekend, dropping 2 of… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

A friend was a neighbor of Len Dykstra in his Phila days. Dykstra told him that when the Dodgers came to town the entire batting cage discussion between Strawberry and Davis was, “where we going after the game?”

T-Bone
T-Bone
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

The third member of that trio was Chris Brown, Giants 3b Who had 2 pretty good first full seasons and then was out of Baseball 3 years later. All three of these guys were friends and went to school together. All three had potential, to different levels maybe, and didn’t fulfill that potential. Chris Brown died of burns after a suspicious house fire at age 45.

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  T-Bone

Interesting Chris Brown tangent: There’s nothing in the record of his 6 minor-league years on the way up that gave the slightest indication that he was capable of those first 2 years (125 OPS+ in about 1,000 PAs). He was absolutely average to below-average in all 4 levels.

He did have a .319 BAbip in those 2 years, which he was utterly unable to sustain; his BAbip was .262 thereafter, though his 650 PAs isn’t enough to draw strong conclusions, and he was never really healthy then either.

Tristram12
Tristram12
12 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

That weekend was against the Phils, and I watched every game. I still believe that Eric Davis, for that brief period of time, was the best player ever. It was unbelievable.

nightfly
12 years ago
Reply to  Jimbo

Such a beast through the second half of the 80’s. He broke in full-time at 24 with that insane 27 hr – 80 sb year, dominated until he turned 30, but couldn’t stay healthy. I looked up his 162 game averages, and they are eye-popping. A healthy Eric Davis, based on his 162 game averages and an earlier full-time spot, could have reached 450 homers and 550 steals – and one HoF plaque. (Over 10,000 PA, he was on pace for 2326 hits, 459 hr, and 568 sb.) He and Darryl Strawberry are the great what-if hitters of my teen… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
12 years ago
Reply to  nightfly

I know he’s a somewhat different different type of hitter – more BA, less walks- but Davis reminded me of Fred Lynn. They both had long careers as mostly CFers, and when they did play they were usually good to excellent, and sometimes awesome, but almost every year they got hurt and missed a good chunk of games, almost never playing an entire season. I think that the 162-game averages for players like Davis and Lynn are very deceptive. Davis’ 162-game averages for HR, runs, and RBI are 28, 93, and 93. He exceeded this in an actual season only… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago

Doug:

Isn’t it possible that Kotchman was erased from the basepaths by force-outs more more often than he forced out other players?

kds
kds
12 years ago

I don’t suppose there is any easy way to find out if he was the runner on first when the batter GDP’s an excessive number of times? A little surprised not to see Big Hurt on the low % list, all the complaints I heard about him clogging the bases when he was in Toronto. But I guess that scoring has dropped and the 20% level is more likely to not be reached when r/g is lower.

Ed
Ed
12 years ago

Kotchman also had problems driving in runs last year. I wonder how his combined R/RBI total ranks for guys with a similar OPS+ (128) in full time play?

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Thanks Doug. I took a look at the 3 players you mentioned – Schang, Grady, and Cuccinello and they all had a lot fewer plate appearances than Kotchman. So I tightened up the criteria and used R<=49, RBI= 120, PAs>= 502. I dropped the slugging percentage criteria since that’s a bit redundant with OPS+. I got exactly 3 names. Bill Rariden in 1915 in the Federal League. Nick Etten in 1942. And Kotchman. Etten has by far the fewest combined Rs/RBIs with only 78 (37 runs, 41 RBIs). BTW, including the slugging percentage criteria means that Kotchman is the only… Read more »

bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

very interesting stuff, guys.

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Oops….that should obviously read R<=49, RBIs= 120, PAs>= 502. I swear that’s what I typed the first time.

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Okay very weird, I’m typing one thing but something else is showing up in my comment. Must have something to do with the symbols. So I’ll try this one more time.

Runs and RBIs are less than or equal to 49.
OPS+ is greater than or equal to 120.
PAs are greater than or equal to 502.

Those are the criteria I used which yielded the three names of Rariden, Etten and Kotchman.

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

BTW, between OPS+ 100 and 119, there have been 23 seasons in which a player scored and drove in 49 or fewer runs. At OPS+ of 99 and below, it’s been down 235 times.

Hartvig
Hartvig
12 years ago

Great stuff. My only “complaint” is that you’ve already addressed every issue that come to mind for me to comment on.

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago

Just for fun, here’s the first list, ordered by the player’s R/G as a percentage of his team’s R/G: (1) Rickey Henderson, 1985 NYY, 19.6% (2) Eric Davis, 1987 CIN, 19.2% (3) Carlos Beltran, 2006 NYM, 17.6% (4) Zoilo Versalles, 1965 MIN, 16.9% (5) Robin Yount, 1980 MIL, 16.9% (6) Curtis Granderson, 2011 NYY, 16.3% (7) Alex Rodriguez, 1999 SEA, 16.1% (8) Jim Edmonds, 1995 CAL, 15.4% (9) Alfonso Soriano, 2002 NYY, 14.7% (10) Steve Finley, 1997 SDP, 14.4% (11) David Dellucci, 2005 TEX, 14.2% (12) Willie Wilson, 1979 KCR, 14% (13) Ivan Rodriguez, 1999 TEX, 13.8% (14) Tony Armas,… Read more »

birtelcom
Editor
12 years ago

Very interesting post, Doug. Got my research juices flowing. Here are the guys with highest career ratio of runs to times on base (min. 3,000 career PAs)(only guys who debuted in the majors in 1901 or later):
1. Red Rolfe, 48.81%
2. Jack Smith 47.23%
3. Pepper Martin 46.93%
4. Earle Combs 46.46%
5. Joe DiMaggio 45.45%
6. Gerald Williams 45.36%
7. Curtis Granderson 45.12%

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

I’ll state the obvious: Gerald Williams is a pretty big shock on that list. He had only medium power and was an inefficient base stealer. He did play in a high-scoring era, but he played for a mix of teams; he tallied only 125 runs with the Yankees, and the 2000-01 Rays (for whom he led off) were last in AL scoring.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Tommy Leach debuted in 1898 but for his playing years after 1900 his percentage was 45.26%.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
12 years ago

David Dellucci is another what-if kinda player. .995 ops at age 23 in AA, taken by Arizona in the expansion draft. Had an uneven rookie season, not showing a lot of power but leading the league in triples. The Diamondbacks chose to spend big – get veterans – win now, though. And it worked. in 2000 their outfielders were Luis Gonzales (31) Steve Finley (34) Tony Womack (29) Bernard Gilkey (32) They won 100 games, and Dellucci played a part… as a pinch hitter. Strange to see a young (in service time) player put in that role, but he excelled.… Read more »

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Nice report on Dellucci … but I still think that PHing him in that spot was the best thing Torre did all night.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Yeah, you’re probably right.
Though I wish he had sent Wells out there with his back spasms to just step into a pitch.

brp
brp
12 years ago

That second list makes me wonder why Oquendo was qualified to be a 3rd base coach. Clearly he didn’t have much experience rounding it as a player…

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  brp

Don’t blame Oquendo. Both those Cardinals teams were next-to-last in NL scoring (3.57 and 3.70 R/G), plus Whitey had him in the bottom of the order.

Tmckelv
Tmckelv
12 years ago

The much overlooked 1994 Kirk Gibson season is on here. Nice.

Also, 2 of my early 1970’s San Diego Padres make the bottom list (Ollie Brown and Fred Kendall).

birtelcom
Editor
12 years ago

Bruce Benedict, who played for the Braves through their bad years in the late 1970s and through all of the 1980s, but retired too soon for Atlanta’s great years in the ’90s, actually had a full career, over 3,000 PAs, while scoring less than 20% of his times on base. He’s the only player in MLB history to do that with 3,000 PAs or more. Four other guys, all catchers, had careers scoring under 20% of times on base with between 1,500 and 3,000 career PAs: Mike LaValliere, Chris Cannizzaro, Ron Hodges and Jeff Torborg. None of these guys made… Read more »

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Well it makes sense. The five catchers that Britelcom mentioned all had three things in common: 1) they were catchers = slow, 2) they hit very few home runs = couldn’t drive themselves in, 3) they batted low in the batting order, mostly 7th or 8th so they had the pitcher coming up soon afterwards. Lombardi on the other hand, mostly hit 5th and 6th, and had the power to drive himself home via homeruns. Which brings me to a point I wanted to make….wouldn’t it make more sense to do these charts with runs scored via homeruns subtracted out?… Read more »

birtelcom
birtelcom
12 years ago
Reply to  Doug

If you thought major league run scoring was ridiculous in the steroids era, then what to think about 1930? The average runs per team per game in 1999-2000 was about 5.1 runs. In 1930 the average was over 5.5.

TheGoof
TheGoof
12 years ago

The only guy on the top chart who played for a pennant winner was Zoilo. Wow.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
12 years ago
Reply to  TheGoof

Tommy Harper also scored 126 runs in 1965 (same as Zoilo), leading the NL. He just missed this list, {126 runs/262 times on base}. Harper only scored 100+ runs one other time, in 1970.

Interesting player – as Bill James said, Harper could do a number of things well, but he never did them all at the same time.

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

That 1965 Reds offense has to rank as one of the best ever and possibly the most balanced ever. They scored 5.1 runs a game against a league average of 4.0. That’s a 27.5% difference. For comparisons sake, the famed ’27 Yankees scored 29% more than the league average. The ’65 Reds had 9 players with 300+ plate appearances. All of them had an OPS+ of 100 or greater, but none was higher than 151. If you drop the criteria to 100 plate appearances, they’re 11 for 11 in players with OPS+ about 100. You have to go to Jimmie… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

1965 wasn’t even Harper’s best year, that was 1970. It looks like his runs scored in 1965 were the result of all those plate appearances (745 – 2nd), and all those good hitters coming up behind him. Everything else about his season is decent but doesn’t jump out at you – .340 OBA, 166 hits, 78 walks, 49 XBH, 35 SB.

Frank Crosetti is one of those with the {120 runs>, >.340 OBP} combo in 1937; he had a season similar to Harper’s in that he scored 127 runs with a .340 OBP, but a 73 OPS+(!).

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

And two years later, in 1939, Crosetti scored over 100 runs with an OPB of .315. So he’s also one of only 19 players to score over 100 runs with an OBP below .320. He also scored over 100 runs in 1936 and 1938, but those two years his OPB was above .380!

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

BTW, only two players have scored over 100 runs with an OBP below .300. Hughie Critz (.292) in 1930 and Jimmy Rollins (.296) in 2009. Tony Armas did it with an OPB of exactly .300 (displayed in Doug’s first chart).

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
12 years ago

#48/ Ed –
Crosetti was at “the right place at the right time”. He was on the field for 23 World Series, winning 17 (7 as player, 10 as coach – coached the Yankees from 1949-68).

Red Rolfe had a similar type of offensive profle at a somewhat higher level, scoring loads of runs for the Yankees with numbers that looked decent, but not oustanding.