Pitching More By Pitching Less

John’s post here Monday, discussing Roy Halladay’s chances of reaching 300 wins, had me thinking about Doc’s well-known ability to pitch deep into games, racking up a lot of innings pitched in the process.  Here’s one example.  Most games of at least 9 innings pitched, 2005-2011: Halladay 49, Cliff Lee 27, Sabathia 22, Chris Carpenter 20.

Perhaps having pitched so many innings affects Halladay’s chances to continue to pitch at a high level at the later stages of his career?  Of course, being able to pitch so many innings in a game has helped Halladay win so many games in the first place, as the deeper a starter goes into the game the more likely he is to get the decision.  But set that aside, as  I was focused not on the past benefits of his innings numbers but on the possible future effect of his high number of innings pitched.    With that in mind I wanted to check how many innings Doc had actually racked up, compared to his contemporaries.   But thinking about  that I realized  I should also, and perhaps even more importantly, check how many pitches he had thrown, as that seemed as if it might be more relevant than his innings pitched.  My findings are after the jump.

Over the period 2000 through 2011, Halladay has pitched almost exactly the same number of regular season innings (2,368) as C.C. Sabathia (2,364).  But over that same period Doc has thrown 34,375 compared to 37,026 thrown by Sabathia.  That’s almost a full season’s worth of pitches that C.C. has tossed that Doc has not needed to toss to get the same number outs over the same period of time.   Might that make some difference in the relative probability of success of these two pitchers in the late stages of their careers?  Does each pitcher, with his own unique style of windup, delivery and release, have a maximum career number of pitches to throw before his arm falls off, or at least begins a steady decline in its ability to master batters?  I don’t know, but it’s something to consider.   In any event,  I can give you some facts about innings pitched and pitches thrown that might be useful or interesting:

Roy Halladay has thrown the fourth-most innings of any pitcher since 2000, but over the same period has thrown the eighth-most pitches.

Since 2000, 124 pitchers have pitched at least 1,000 regular season innings.  Of those 124 guys, here are the five men who threw the fewest pitches per inning over that period:

Greg Maddux 13.37
Jon Lieber 14.41
Roy Halladay 14.52
David Wells 14.61
Carlos Silva 14.78

Of the 124 guys with 1,000+ IP since 2000, the five highest pitches-per-inning guys:

Scott Kazmir 17.77
Oliver Perez 17.63
Al Leiter 17.57
Glendon Rusch 17.29
Gil Meche 17.25

The average pitches per inning over the period 2000-2011, among the 124 guys with 1,000 IP over that period, was 15.88 pitches per inning.  C.C. Sabathia was close to, though a bit better than, that average, at 15.66.

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Andrew
Andrew
12 years ago

That Maddux stat is pretty insane – more than a 1 pitch difference over the second place guy. And this wasn’t even in his prime – I remember him tossing 80 & 90 pitch complete games in the 90s. When you paint the corners the way he did…

Andrew
Andrew
12 years ago
Reply to  Andrew

Yeah, here we go – CG, 1 ER on 5 hits, no walks – 76 pitches, 63 strikes

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN199707221.shtml

bstar
bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  Andrew

Here’s another one: Greg Maddux v. Mike Morgan on August 20, 1995. Maddux beats Cardinals with CG 2 hit shutout on 88 pitches, Morgan gives up 1 ER, 6 hits on 84 pitches in 8 innings. Time of game? 1:50. Also, Steve Avery must have been a quick worker also(I should remember that but don’t) as he also logged two games under 2 hours that year.

Mike L
Mike L
12 years ago

Interesting post. Maddux was really a one-off as a starter-he and the older Mariano oddly resemble each other, even though Rivera strikes out more-a lot of ball movement that made you either swing and miss or make poor contact. Rusch and Meche were sub 100 ERA+ pitchers who nonetheless got a fair number of starts (but didn’t really have an out pitch). Leiter was actually fairly good but had control issues when he was younger-and lost just enough velocity when he aged that he had a hard time putting people away.

Dr. Remulak
Dr. Remulak
12 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Game 5, 2000 WS, Sojo bounces one through the middle on Leiter’s 142nd pitch. Yankees 4, Mets 2.

bstar
bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Wow, Mike, a Maddux/Mariano comp. I’d never heard of that. Makes sense, though. I never thought there would ever be anyone like Maddux; perhaps Halladay might be his best comp as a starter, as far as the pinpoint control and low BB rates go.

MadDog
MadDog
12 years ago

We tend to count pitches as though they are all the same. In fact, pitches from the stretch, pitches beyond 15 in an inning, pitches beyond (say) 90 in a game, are all much more taxing than a pitch from the windup to the inning’s second or third hitter. I’ll bet the latter kind of pitch is a much higher percentage of Halliday’s or Maddux’s pitches than for a nibbler like Leiter.

Evil Squirrel
12 years ago
Reply to  MadDog

I have often wondered why only “game pitches” are really considered when evaluating the amount of wear and tear on a pitchers arm. I realize they aren’t quite up to the same level of stress as throwing a pitch in a game situation, but pitchers throw quite a number of pitches just warming up in the bullpen prior to the game, and then they get 8 warmup pitches prior to the start of each inning. Over the course of a year, a 200 inning starter is going to throw about 1600 warmup tosses! Or maybe it just all evens out… Read more »

Hartvig
Hartvig
12 years ago
Reply to  MadDog

I suspect that you are right plus I would also consider the time factor. I think that pitchers who don’t dawdle around on the mound between pitches spend a fair bit less time on the mound over the course of the season and that, particularly as the season progresses and those 100 degree summer nights roll around, can also be a pretty big factor. Put high pitch count + pitching from the stretch + long innings/games together and I suspect you have a much more reliable indicator of injury probability than say complete games or innings pitched or even batters… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
12 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

I agree. We need to remember that these guys come is all sizes and body types, with all different ranges of motion, recovery times, quantities of fast twitch fibers as opposed to slow twitch, windup and arm action and arm slots. Some of them are really graceful and effortless in their delivery, some (like Oswalt) are compact but violent as they move towards the plate. A lot of the really large guys take time to get their mechanics right (and their control), so they are often less successful early on but have the physical endurance to pitch longer.

Doug
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

“A lot of the really large guys take time to get their mechanics right (and their control), so they are often less successful early on but have the physical endurance to pitch longer.”

Exhibit A is Randy Johnson. Through Age 28:
49-48, 3.95, 5.7 BB/9, 1.5 K/BB, 101 ERA+, 7.5 WAR

bstar
bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  Hartvig

Not dawdling on the mound reportedly helps improve your defense’s concentration levels too, ala Maddux and Mark Buerhle.

bstar
bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  MadDog

Madddog, love the moniker. Is that a Maddux homage? I go by Maddogisgod on a Braves blog.

bstar
bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Sorry, misspelled your name. Bill Madlock also had the nickname “Mad Dog”.

Christopher
Christopher
12 years ago

If you had asked me cold, I would have expected pitchers who register a large number of strikeouts to throw more pitches per game. Whenever I see a pitcher strike out the side, I am impressed but always think that it will limit there time in the game because they had to throw so much. And yet, there is Maddux who is something like 10th all time in strike outs throwing fewer ptches per inning than the average (or even above average) pitchers. For that matter, Halladay is not exactly bad at getting strikeouts. So have I been wrong all… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
12 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Well said, birtelcom. I’m surprised no one has mentioned Red Barrett yet – {edited down from the Baseball Almanac} Fewest Pitches By A Single Pitcher In A Complete Game – Red Barrett Fifty-Eight Pitch Complete Game | August 10, 1944 at Crosley Field: “It was on August 10th of that year, playing his former team, that Barrett made history. He threw not only the shortest night game in history at one hour and fifteen minutes, but also the complete game with the fewest pitches ever. Barrett needed only fifty-eight pitches to shutout the Reds 2-0 with only two hits and… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
12 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

Red Barrett also had a 20 win season, and no other season with a winning record (with more than 2 decisions).

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
12 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Maybe we could try to create a new catch-phrase, calling a low pitch-count complete game a “Red Barrett”? Yeah, I know, lame.

On the other extreme, I wonder what the pitch counts were in the famous 26 inning 1-1 tie on May 1st, 1920, where both Leon Cadore and Joe Oeschger pitched the entire game. A wikipedia article on pitch counts estimates 345 and 319 pitches, respectively. Talk about ignoring the pitch count limits!

MikeD
MikeD
12 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

An hour fifteen? I’m not going to be happy if I go to a baseball game in it’s only 1:15! I’m not even into my second beer by then.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
12 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

As a Red Sox fan, it often felt like it took Jonathan Papelbon that long (1:15) just to pitch the ninth inning.

MikeD
MikeD
12 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

This got me to thinking what was the quickest game I attended. I’m pretty sure this is it. I was at this game, which lasted just about two hours. There was nothing memorable about the game beyond it was fast and I remember commenting on that to a friend, and it had to be among the handful of best games Scott Erickson ever pitched. Shane Mack hit a HR (so did Puckett), and Mack was on my fantasy team.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA199106240.shtml

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

Aithough a game of 1:15 today sounds ridiculously fast today it was not quite the case in 1944. I made a quick check and in the AL that year there was not a single 9-inning game that lasted more than 3 hours. The great majority of games were under 2:30 with about half being less than 2:00. Here are the longest and shortest 9-inning games by time for each team. Team…..Longest…..Shortest Det…….2:43……..1:19 Bos…….2:32……..1:17 Was…….2:40……..1:17 StL…….2:35……..1:17 Pha…….2:30……..1:17 NYY…….2:57……..1:26 Cle…….2:57……..1:25 CWS…….2:40……..1:19 Also because of WWII players may have made a subconscious effort to speed up night games to reduce the amount of… Read more »

MikeD
MikeD
12 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

Thanks, Richard. Interesting. To state the obvious, there must be a strong link between average runs per game and length of game. Second likely cause for longer games is higher use of the bullpen.

Where does game-length data exist in B-R?

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

Reply to post 29.
Game times are listed on a team’s Results Page. I access it by clicking on Boxscores, then select a year and then a team. You can sort the times in ascending and descending order.

bstar
bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

Oh, thanks, I forgot about the ascending/descending option. I was using my eyes to scan down every time of game listed on the “Schedule and results” page.

Doug
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

Since 2000, there have been only three 9-inning games (actually 8 1/2 innings) where each starter went the distance while also throwing under 100 pitches. Incidentally, all of these games completed in under 2 hours.

Fausto Carmona vs. Armando Galarraga
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/DET/DET201006020.shtml

Zack Greinke vs. Roy Halladay
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TOR200505100.shtml

Kevin Brown vs. Curt Schilling
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ARI/ARI200104100.shtml

Doug
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

For the 124 pitchers, I’ve calculated ratios of Pit/BF and BF/IP and created rankings for each.

The table is here.

Combining the two measures yields this top 10 in pitch-count efficiency. Basically, the same guys with the order changed slightly.
1. Greg Maddux
2 .Roy Halladay
3. Jon Lieber
4. John Smoltz
5. Tim Hudson
6. Brad Radke
7. Chris Carpenter
8. Roy Oswalt
9. David Wells
10. Mark Mulder

charliewatts
charliewatts
12 years ago

Funny how three of the top 5 pitch throwers since 2000 were on the Mets (Leiter, Rusch, Perez), and one of the others was supposed to (Kazmir). And two of them (Leiter, Rusch) pitched that way into the 2000 World Series!

Doc_Irysch
Doc_Irysch
12 years ago

You often hear that one of the main keys to pitching is first pitch strike. It would be interesting to see if the percentage of first pitch strikes these high inning/low pitch count guys have compared to others and if numbers match the advice.

Josh
Josh
12 years ago

This reminds me of a post Beyond the Box Score did on pitches saved.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/5/8/2157405/pitches-saved-since-1988-or-greg-maddux-is-a-wizard