Seven Strikeouts: The New Normal |

It has been widely noted that some of the trends associated with the immediate post-baseball-strike period (1995 through the early years of the 21st century) have abated over the last few seasons. Home runs and run scoring are both down from their peak, as are walks and hits.

Average home runs per team per game 2000: 1.17
Average home runs per team per game 2011: 0.94

Average runs per team per game 2000: 5.14
Average runs per team per game 2011: 4.28

Average hits per team per game 2000: 9.31
Average hits per team per game 2011: 8.70

Average walks per team per game 2000: 3.75
Average walks per team per game 2011: 3.09

But one stat that was also historically high in the heavy run-scoring period that peaked around 10 years ago has continued to climb ever higher. That’s strikeouts. More details after the jump.

Even though hits, homers, runs and walks were occurring at near all-time highs in the majors in the late 90s-early 2000s, strikeouts were also very high. The full season average for strikeouts per team per game went over 6.5 for the first time in major league history in 1997. Over the four-year period 1998-2001, the overall Ks per game average across the majors continued to be high, averaging 6.52 over that four-year period. But since then, K’s have not ebbed in parallel with hits, walks, runs and homers. The all-time record for the highest MLB-wide strikeout per game rate has been broken every year for the last four years in a row. The four highest MLB-wide averages for a season in history:

2008: 6.77
2009: 6.91
2010: 7.06
2011: 7.10

At this point it is routine, rather than a surprise, when each new season brings another all-time record for most strikeouts across the majors. To put that 7.10 Ks per game number for 2011 in perspective, note that the overall average for all regular season games across the entire hundred seasons from 1900 through 1999 was 4.35 Ks per game.

Indeed, the general upward trend in strikeouts has been going on more or less steadily in MLB for 90 years. Every decade since the 1920s, except for the 1970s (when the mounds were lowered and the AL replaced flailing pitchers with the DH) has seen more Ks per game in the majors than the decade before:

Average Strikeouts Per Team Per Game, MLB Regular Season
1920-1929: 2.81
1930-1939: 3.32
1940-1949: 3.55
1950-1959: 4.40
1960-1969: 5.70
1970-1979: 5.15
1980-1989: 5.34
1990-1999: 6.14
2000-2009: 6.56
2010-2011: 7.08

In moderation, strikeouts can be a fun part of the game for fans. But I wonder whether the ever-lengthening parade of Ks is becoming a bit much. With home runs declining, maybe hitters should be adjusting strategies to make more contact and get the ball in play. The sport is baseball after all, not “swingball”, “strikeball” or “missball”. More action on the field of play, more running around on the bases, more testing of defensive prowess, and a bit less of the chess match between pitcher and hitter (as compelling as that can be), might be desirable from the spectator’s point of view.

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Tmckelv

12 years ago

I would think there would be more of a correlation between Walk Rates and K Rates, since both require a number of pitches. As more players have adopted the
“take more pitches” approach (not fearing the strikeout), theoretically the walk-rate should also be increasing instead of decreasing. I guess pitcher’s are “giving in” a little more often in full counts.

“But I wonder whether the ever-lengthening parade of Ks is becoming a bit much.”

At least the the K/Game rates can max out at roughly 27, whereas the H/HR/R stats during the offensive peaks seemed limitless. 🙂

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John Autin

Reply to Tmckelv

I think there are at least two different things going on with hitters that lead to more strikeouts, only one of which correlates with more walks.

Working deep counts tends to cause more of both Ks and BBs. But swinging for the fences increases Ks without increasing BBs; in fact, it may cause a small reduction in BBs, as swings-and-misses replace some 2-strike foul balls (a small portion of which would have ended in walks).

Brent

Reply to John Autin

I am not sure I agree with the premise that swinging for the fences doesn’t lead to more walks because not all missed swings are equal. Sure, the one with 2 strikes always leads to a strike out. But what of the 2-0 swing and miss and the 3-1 swing and miss? Seems to me that the Adam Dunns and Jack Custs of the world could end up swinging and missing early in the count and then walk more than let’s say Ichiro who doesn’t miss that fat 2-0 pitch and hits it somewhere.

Voomo Zanzibar

K/Game does not have to max out at 27.
With PB/WP, you can have infinite K.

Evil Squirrel

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

LOL

Extra innings allows for (theoretically) infinite K’s as well…

Max

I see this more as the removal of the stigma of striking out. Back in the “good old days” striking out was seen as the worst possible thing that could happen. With two strikes, you choked up, you had to make contact. Now, that strategy has been replaced by the more grip-it-and-rip-it ideal. Plus, situational hitting and working counts have added to the strike out parade. Runner on first, one out, used to be you would try to hit behind the runner. Now, they want you to stay out of the double play and swing away. Players are also taught… Read more »

Reply to Max

Max — My gut sense agreed with you, but the numbers on B-R refute us both.

B-R has pitch breakdowns only since 1988. That year, strikeouts looking accounted for 26% of all Ks. That figure reached a high of 29% in 1997-98, but started to creep back down in ’99, and by 2002 it was down to 26%. It remained steady for a few years, then started down again, to 25% in 2006-10 and finally reaching a low of 24% last year.

Jeff Allen

I’m actually working on normalizing K rates for batters, much as Raphy did for pitchers last month. What I’m exploring is the ratio of PA/K. I don’t have my worksheet available right now, so I don’t have the numbers, but over the last decade, it’s been pretty steady at just about 1 strikeout every 5 PA. Along the way, I’m discovering serious issues with the Lahman database. Least of which is the fact that PA are not tracked (can be approximated with H+BB+HBP+SF+SH). But strikeout data is completely absent for 1897-1910. I’m able to pull it from B-R, but it… Read more »

Reply to Jeff Allen

Average over the last 10 years is actually 5.8 PA/K. It’s been in a steady decline since the period 1974-1983.

Jeff — I understood what you meant by saying that the rate of PA/K has been in a steady decline, but it still sounds funky. I hope I’m not a scold, but when talking about strikeout frequency, it seems clearer to use terms such as SO%, so that “increase” means more Ks and “decrease” means fewer Ks.

Hartvig

It seems obvious (to me, at least) that there are many players who could benefit from taking the “just make contact” approach and instead swing for the fences. Michael Bourn has struck out as much as 140 times in a season. Brett Gardner’s 194 strikeouts over the past 2 seasons have translated into 12 home runs. Drew Stubbs in Cincinnati whiffed 205 times last year and produced 15 homers. And yet Juan Pierre has managed to hold a starting outfield job for 11 years and has been paid $55 million dollars in that time. Tony Gwynn was a first ballot… Read more »

Mark in Sydney

Reply to Hartvig

Isn’t this just saying that OPS/OPS+ is key? Yet it seems, after a couple of decades of harping on the subject by forums such as this, the Establishment still doesn’t believe it is true. HR, RBI and average are still big three and most folk believe this to be true. So long as this holds, and as long as Ks remain a key stat for pitchers, then we are likely to see this stat continuing to rise. I wonder what the 2000-now K rates for the so-called Moneyball teams (As, Marlins, Twins, Jays) are like compared to the big market… Read more »