Jose Bautista is having a really sloooow start |

Through 20 games, Jose Bautista is not reminding anyone of the player who terrorized AL pitchers the past two seasons. I was wondering whether any other players coming off a season like Bautista’s had had such a slow start the following year. And, if they did, was that slow start a harbinger of a really down year?

Let’s find out.

Here’s the list of players with a season like Bautista’s in 2011 – 502 PA, .300 BA, .600 SLG, 125 BB, and an OPS+ of 200 or less.

Rk	Player	Year	BA	SLG	BB	OPS+	PA	Age	Tm	HR	RBI	SO	OBP	OPS	Pos
1	Jose Bautista	2011	.302	.608	132	181	655	30	TOR	43	103	111	.447	1.056	*95/D
2	Todd Helton	2004	.347	.620	127	165	683	30	COL	32	96	72	.469	1.088	*3
3	Jason Giambi	2001	.342	.660	129	198	671	30	OAK	38	120	83	.477	1.137	*3D
4	Jason Giambi	2000	.333	.647	137	187	664	29	OAK	43	137	96	.476	1.123	*3D
5	Chipper Jones	1999	.319	.633	126	168	701	27	ATL	45	110	94	.441	1.074	*5/6
6	Barry Bonds	1998	.303	.609	130	178	697	33	SFG	37	122	92	.438	1.047	*7
7	Gary Sheffield	1996	.314	.624	142	189	677	27	FLA	42	120	66	.465	1.090	*9
8	Barry Bonds	1996	.308	.615	151	188	675	31	SFG	42	129	76	.461	1.076	*7/8
9	Frank Thomas	1995	.308	.606	136	179	647	27	CHW	40	111	74	.454	1.061	*3D
10	Ralph Kiner	1951	.309	.627	137	185	670	28	PIT	42	109	57	.452	1.079	*73
11	Ted Williams	1949	.343	.650	162	191	730	30	BOS	43	159	48	.490	1.141	*7
12	Ted Williams	1948	.369	.615	126	189	638	29	BOS	25	127	41	.497	1.112	*7
13	Lou Gehrig	1937	.351	.643	127	176	700	34	NYY	37	159	49	.473	1.116	*3
14	Lou Gehrig	1936	.354	.696	130	190	719	33	NYY	49	152	46	.478	1.174	*3

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/28/2012.

And, here’s how these players fared in their teams’ first 20 games of the following season.

Rk	Year	Player		PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SF	IBB	HBP	GDP
1	2012	Jose Bautista	Ind. Games	91	71	13	1	0	3	9	16	11	.183	.341	.324	.665	2	2	2	3
2	2005	Todd Helton	Ind. Games	88	72	19	5	0	1	9	15	6	.264	.398	.375	.773	0	2	1	3
3	2002	Jason Giambi	Ind. Games	89	76	20	3	0	4	10	10	21	.263	.371	.461	.831	0	1	3	5
4	2001	Jason Giambi	Ind. Games	88	66	27	7	0	6	17	20	11	.409	.557	.788	1.345	0	6	2	0
5	2000	Chipper Jones	Ind. Games	84	75	22	4	0	4	14	8	5	.293	.357	.507	.864	1	2	0	3
6	1999	Barry Bonds	Ind. Games	52	41	15	6	0	4	12	11	4	.366	.500	.805	1.305	0	3	0	2
7	1997	Gary Sheffield	Ind. Games	86	59	15	4	0	3	6	22	12	.254	.477	.475	.951	1	3	4	1
8	1997	Barry Bonds	Ind. Games	84	57	14	0	2	2	10	23	6	.246	.464	.421	.885	2	5	2	0
9	1996	Frank Thomas	Ind. Games	97	79	30	6	0	7	19	16	11	.380	.474	.722	1.196	2	4	0	4
10	1952	Ralph Kiner	Ind. Games	85	68	17	4	0	2	8	16	10	.250	.400	.397	.797	0	1	1	1
11	1950	Ted Williams	Ind. Games	62	48	17	2	0	7	21	14	3	.354	.500	.833	1.333	0	0	0	3
12	1949	Ted Williams	Ind. Games	97	76	24	2	0	7	26	20	10	.316	.464	.618	1.082	0	2	1	4
13	1938	Lou Gehrig	Ind. Games	87	68	15	5	1	2	9	17	11	.221	.391	.412	.803	0	0	2
14	1937	Lou Gehrig	Ind. Games	89	80	21	8	0	1	12	9	9	.263	.337	.400	.737	0	0	0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/28/2012.

So, there’s a mix of starts here, but Bautista’s certainly looks to be the worst. The colors are rough indicators of cold (blue), warm (orange) and hot (red) starts.

For full year totals for that following season, here’s what we have.

Rk	Player	Year	OPS+	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
2	Todd Helton	2005	144	31	COL	144	626	509	92	163	45	2	20	79	106	80	.320	.445	.534	.979	*3
3	Jason Giambi	2002	172	31	NYY	155	689	560	120	176	34	1	41	122	109	112	.314	.435	.598	1.034	*3D
4	Jason Giambi	2001	198	30	OAK	154	671	520	109	178	47	2	38	120	129	83	.342	.477	.660	1.137	*3D
5	Chipper Jones	2000	141	28	ATL	156	686	579	118	180	38	1	36	111	95	64	.311	.404	.566	.970	*5/6
6	Barry Bonds	1999	155	34	SFG	102	434	355	91	93	20	2	34	83	73	62	.262	.389	.617	1.006	*7/D
7	Gary Sheffield	1997	134	28	FLA	135	582	444	86	111	22	1	21	71	121	79	.250	.424	.446	.870	*9/D
8	Barry Bonds	1997	170	32	SFG	159	690	532	123	155	26	5	40	101	145	87	.291	.446	.585	1.031	*7
9	Frank Thomas	1996	178	28	CHW	141	649	527	110	184	26	0	40	134	109	70	.349	.459	.626	1.085	*3
10	Ralph Kiner	1952	141	29	PIT	149	633	516	90	126	17	2	37	87	110	77	.244	.384	.500	.884	*7
11	Ted Williams	1950	167	31	BOS	89	416	334	82	106	24	1	28	97	82	21	.317	.452	.647	1.099	*7
12	Ted Williams	1949	191	30	BOS	155	730	566	150	194	39	3	43	159	162	48	.343	.490	.650	1.141	*7
13	Lou Gehrig	1938	132	35	NYY	157	689	576	115	170	32	6	29	114	107	75	.295	.410	.523	.932	*3
14	Lou Gehrig	1937	176	34	NYY	157	700	569	138	200	37	9	37	159	127	49	.351	.473	.643	1.116	*3

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/30/2012.

So, no really bad seasons here. However, among those players with the coldest starts, only Gehrig in 1937 turned in a season over 144 OPS+. Conversely, among players with warm or hot starts, only Chipper Jones (2000) and Gary Sheffield (1997) turned in a season under 144 OPS+.

Among players with a hot start, all had outstanding seasons, particularly Giambi (2001) and Williams (1949) with league-leading totals in multiple offensive categories. That Williams season is the only time a player has had 150 or more runs, walks and RBIs. Bonds (1999) and Williams (1950) in this group were both slowed by injury but still turned in OPS+ scores higher than all of the players with cold starts.

Based on past experience, then, it would seem Bautista will probably have a good season, though probably not as dominating as his past two. Differing opinions, anyone?

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joeyogi

11 years ago

doug

fantastic post. love your site and work.

thanks

Hartvig

I wrote a long comment about this on a previous post about Bautista & Pujols and then erased it because I was at least partially contradicting myself in it. Looking at Bautista’s numbers, it seems to me that beginning in the second half of last year that teams are really starting to pitch around him- his walks are about the same or a little higher but his strike outs are up quite a bit and his power numbers are down. I’m guessing that as long as all Toronto has to hit behind him are Lind and Encarnacion that no one… Read more »

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Doug

Reply to Hartvig

Bautista definitely cooled off the second part of last year, but his walk rate this year are about the same as his overall rate last year, and his strikeouts are at a lower rate this year. So, even if he doesn’t get much good to hit, should continue to draw lots of walks.

John’s point below (comment #3) about his far below normal BABIP this year is probably most relevant and something that should correct itself.

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John Autin

I’ve already expressed (in a reply to Neil L.) my confidence that Bautista will produce. He’s not striking out, he’s taking his walks. The main factor in his numbers is a .179 BAbip, which is about 100 points below his prior career average.

There might be some subtler problem, but without having seen him yet, I wouldn’t know.

Doug, I’m curious about one of the criteria for your comparison group. Why did you cap the OPS+ at 200?

Reply to John Autin

Great point John about his low BABIP. A number that low will correct itself, assuming Bautista doesn’t get totally out of sorts. I haven’t seen a lot of Bautista this year (3 or 4 games), but he doesn’t look as relaxed as he looked last year (especially early last year). He takes massively hard cuts, but did so more smoothly last year – his swing this year seems a little rushed, with too much lunge in it. I capped the comparison group at 200 OPS+ to find seasons similar to Bautista’s 2011 season. There are actually 23 seasons meeting the… Read more »

MikeD

The good news for Bautista is everyone on that list went on to excellent hitting seasons despite their slow starts. Helton, Kiner and Gehrig(’38) had the next lowest OPS’s after Bautista. I was thinking Lou Gehrig’s 1938 season was a good match in that he also had a very low BA in April (absurdly low for him at .221), but was still generating walks. Yet perhaps that’s not the most comforting comparison as I go off on a bit of a tangent. But for a few PAs in 1939, Gehrig’s last full season in the majors was 1938. Although Gehrig… Read more »

Mike L

Reply to MikeD

Mike D, I wonder if Gehrig would have been able to stay out of the war in some capacity. His parents were German immigrants, and that might have been dicey, even given his advanced age. More likely the Army would have have found some role for him.

RetroRob

Reply to Mike L

Mike L, regarding Gehrig, WWII and his German ancestry, you bring up a good point and it was one I wanted to touch on, but my posting was already way too long, especially considering I started out to write about Bautista! It’s an interesting question, but one which is basically impossible to answer without getting into the mind and soul of Lou Gehrig, because I don’t think there was a great chance of him being drafted initially. He would have had to made the decision to enlist at the age of 38. While some may not be aware of this,… Read more »

Reply to RetroRob

…MikeD. Should have updated my log in.

Lawrence Azrin

From what I remember reading about Gehrig’s 1938, he struggled in spring training and in April (splits of .116/.333/.186), then got back to form the rest of the year. Someone has hypothesized that his body was subconciously adjusting to the changes brought on by the very beginning of ALS.

As for WWII, there’s no guarantee that he would’ve still been a productive regular at 38/39.. There’s been plenty of great players almost as good as him, whose careers as regulars ended at 35/36.

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Lawrence, that’s quite possible. I have also read that his fatigue hit him at such levels in 1938 that it was originally believed that he had a gall bladder infection. I read a bit more on his 1938 season this evening and it’s a little clearer to me that he was being impacted that year by ALS, but not enough to prevent him from playing. A non athlete might not have noticed any signs, but as a professional athlete he was pushing his body harder than most, probably why he was having some early fatigue problems since ALS impacts the… Read more »

bstar

It is always fun to wonder where Lou Gehrig would have ended up on the all-time HR list, although I think him exceeding Babe Ruth’s 714 total would have been a very tough task indeed. Let’s assume that, disease-free, Gehrig hit as many HR in his age-35 season as he did in his age-34 year(37), eight more than his actual 29 total in ’38. That would have given him 501 HR thru age 35, but there have been twelve other players in history to exceed that total by that age, with Alex Rodriguez at 629 the clear leader here. Babe… Read more »

Reply to bstar

Agreed with you on the HRs. He would have had to maintain the high HR pace. Could he have averaged 32 HRs a year through age 40? Maybe, but even that “only” takes him to Willie Mays territory, and then he’d have to play another couple seasons and hit another 55 HRs to break it. It doesn’t seem likely unless he could have added in a couple more upper-40s HR seasons like he had in ’34 and ’36, before beginning a more gradual decline. Odds are against it, but Gehrig wasn’t a normal baseball player up until ALS, which is… Read more »

Another factor that would have been working against him would have been the ball used during the war. Between 1942 and 1945 only 3 guys hit as many as 30 home runs and another 20 guys hit as many as 20- and the majority of those hit between 20 and 22. It’s hard to imagine even a healthy 40 year old Lou Gehrig hitting more than guys like Johnny Mize or Mel Ott.

Joseph

The difference between most of the players on the list and Bautista is that Bautista has had 1.5 seasons of really outstanding baseball, the way I see it. Last year he faded badly in the second half of the season: 12 HR’s, a .257 average, and .896 OPS compared to 31 HR’s, .334, and 1.170. In 2010 he came out of 6 years where he average an OPS+ of about 91. He’s going to be one of those stories about having a brief flash of greatness and then burned out. He’s already 31–many of the greats have started to slow… Read more »

Joseph,

I have a hunch you may be right about Bautista. Players with late peaks don’t tend to sustain them for long (if I’m remembering correctly a study Bill James did on age and performance levels).

Neil L.

Joseph, as an observer in the Toronto market, my worst fear is that you are right about Jose Bautista and his celestial 1.5 seasons. However, what a 1.5-year run it was, if it is over. And, unlike, Brady Anderson and others, I don’t believe his sudden power surge was substance-fueled. I do disagree with you, respectfully, that his slow start this year and poor second half last year are age-related. His physical conditioning and work out regimen, from all reports, are as good as ever. Jose Bautista’s swing, if you look at video, is as vicious as ever …. he… Read more »