Matt Kemp Is Off to One of the Best Power Starts Ever
Led by their marquee slugger Matt Kemp, the Dodgers have the best record in baseball 10 games into the season. Kemp’s 6 HR place him among the top 10 seasons all-time for HR in the first 10 team games of the season.
After the jump, I’ll look at what those fast power starts portended for the players’ seasons.
Here’s the list of seasons with the most HR in the first 10 games of a team’s season. Note that the stats shown are for only the games in which the player homered. The # Matching column indicates how many of those games each player had.
| Rk | Player | Year | #Matching | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR 6 | RBI | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luis Gonzalez | 2001 | 7 | Ind. Games | 32 | 31 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 1 | 6 | .387 | .406 | 1.258 | 1.664 |
| 2 | Mike Schmidt | 1976 | 6 | Ind. Games | 28 | 26 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 6 | .385 | .429 | 1.423 | 1.852 |
| 3 | Alex Rodriguez | 2007 | 6 | Ind. Games | 30 | 24 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 6 | 5 | .375 | .500 | 1.292 | 1.792 |
| 4 | Chris Shelton | 2006 | 5 | Ind. Games | 22 | 20 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 3 | .600 | .636 | 1.750 | 2.386 |
| 5 | Larry Walker | 1997 | 5 | Ind. Games | 23 | 19 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 5 | .579 | .652 | 1.789 | 2.442 |
| 6 | Dave Kingman | 1976 | 5 | Ind. Games | 24 | 23 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 6 | .391 | .417 | 1.391 | 1.808 |
| 7 | Willie Mays | 1964 | 6 | Ind. Games | 26 | 23 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 0 | .522 | .577 | 1.435 | 2.012 |
| 8 | Johnny Mize | 1947 | 5 | Ind. Games | 21 | 18 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 0 | .444 | .524 | 1.611 | 2.135 |
| 9 | Matt Kemp | 2012 | 5 | Ind. Games | 23 | 19 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 1 | .526 | .609 | 1.474 | 2.082 |
| 10 | Chase Utley | 2010 | 5 | Ind. Games | 24 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 3 | .421 | .542 | 1.368 | 1.910 |
| 11 | Nelson Cruz | 2010 | 6 | Ind. Games | 26 | 24 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 5 | .417 | .462 | 1.292 | 1.753 |
| 12 | Lance Berkman | 2006 | 5 | Ind. Games | 24 | 19 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 4 | 2 | .474 | .542 | 1.421 | 1.963 |
| 13 | Travis Hafner | 2006 | 5 | Ind. Games | 24 | 18 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 1 | .667 | .750 | 1.722 | 2.472 |
| 14 | Jim Thome | 2006 | 6 | Ind. Games | 26 | 20 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 3 | .450 | .577 | 1.450 | 2.027 |
| 15 | Miguel Cabrera | 2004 | 5 | Ind. Games | 21 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 3 | .421 | .476 | 1.368 | 1.845 |
| 16 | Jermaine Dye | 2004 | 5 | Ind. Games | 21 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 5 | .333 | .333 | 1.238 | 1.571 |
| 17 | Larry Walker | 2001 | 6 | Ind. Games | 26 | 24 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 4 | .458 | .462 | 1.292 | 1.753 |
| 18 | Jeromy Burnitz | 1998 | 5 | Ind. Games | 23 | 16 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 7 | 3 | .563 | .696 | 1.750 | 2.446 |
| 19 | Ken Griffey | 1997 | 5 | Ind. Games | 24 | 19 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 3 | .474 | .583 | 1.474 | 2.057 |
| 20 | Dante Bichette | 1994 | 5 | Ind. Games | 25 | 23 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 3 | .565 | .600 | 1.565 | 2.165 |
| 21 | Carlos Delgado | 1994 | 5 | Ind. Games | 23 | 18 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 6 | .444 | .565 | 1.444 | 2.010 |
| 22 | Kevin Mitchell | 1991 | 5 | Ind. Games | 20 | 16 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 1 | .563 | .650 | 1.688 | 2.338 |
| 23 | Dale Murphy | 1985 | 6 | Ind. Games | 25 | 23 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 1 | .478 | .520 | 1.348 | 1.868 |
| 24 | Jim Presley | 1985 | 6 | Ind. Games | 23 | 20 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 3 | .500 | .522 | 1.500 | 2.022 |
| 25 | Tony Armas | 1981 | 5 | Ind. Games | 22 | 20 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 3 | .500 | .545 | 1.450 | 1.995 |
| 26 | Fred Lynn | 1979 | 5 | Ind. Games | 24 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 1 | .368 | .500 | 1.316 | 1.816 |
| 27 | Reggie Jackson | 1974 | 4 | Ind. Games | 18 | 17 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 2 | .647 | .667 | 1.824 | 2.490 |
| 28 | Graig Nettles | 1974 | 4 | Ind. Games | 19 | 17 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 4 | .471 | .526 | 1.529 | 2.056 |
| 29 | Jim Wynn | 1973 | 5 | Ind. Games | 25 | 24 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 6 | .458 | .480 | 1.292 | 1.772 |
| 30 | Willie Stargell | 1971 | 4 | Ind. Games | 19 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 4 | .529 | .579 | 1.588 | 2.167 |
| 31 | Willie McCovey | 1969 | 5 | Ind. Games | 21 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 0 | .529 | .619 | 1.765 | 2.384 |
| 32 | Wally Moon | 1961 | 5 | Ind. Games | 19 | 16 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 3 | .563 | .611 | 1.688 | 2.299 |
| 33 | Ken Boyer | 1960 | 5 | Ind. Games | 22 | 17 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 2 | .529 | .591 | 1.765 | 2.356 |
| 34 | Don Demeter | 1959 | 4 | Ind. Games | 19 | 17 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 3 | .588 | .588 | 1.706 | 2.294 |
| 35 | Eddie Mathews | 1959 | 5 | Ind. Games | 24 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 2 | .381 | .458 | 1.286 | 1.744 |
| 36 | Eddie Mathews | 1953 | 4 | Ind. Games | 19 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 1 | .500 | .579 | 1.688 | 2.266 |
| 37 | Ken Keltner | 1948 | 4 | Ind. Games | 21 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 3 | .350 | .381 | 1.250 | 1.631 |
| 38 | Bill Terry | 1932 | 4 | Ind. Games | 23 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 3 | 1 | .450 | .522 | 1.450 | 1.972 |
| 39 | Gabby Hartnett | 1925 | 5 | Ind. Games | 21 | 19 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 0 | .474 | .524 | 1.474 | 1.997 |
And, here’s how those seasons turned out, sorted by bWAR.
| Player | OPS+ | bWAR | Year | Tm | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | HR | RBI | BA | OBP | SLG |
| Willie Mays | 172 | 10.2 | 1964 | SFG | 157 | 665 | 578 | 121 | 171 | 21 | 47 | 111 | 0.296 | 0.383 | 0.607 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 176 | 9.9 | 2007 | NYY | 158 | 708 | 583 | 143 | 183 | 31 | 54 | 156 | 0.314 | 0.422 | 0.645 |
| Ken Griffey | 165 | 9.4 | 1997 | SEA | 157 | 704 | 608 | 125 | 185 | 34 | 56 | 147 | 0.304 | 0.382 | 0.646 |
| Larry Walker | 178 | 9.0 | 1997 | COL | 153 | 664 | 568 | 143 | 208 | 46 | 49 | 130 | 0.366 | 0.452 | 0.720 |
| Willie McCovey | 209 | 8.9 | 1969 | SFG | 149 | 623 | 491 | 101 | 157 | 26 | 45 | 126 | 0.320 | 0.453 | 0.656 |
| Eddie Mathews | 171 | 8.9 | 1953 | MLN | 157 | 681 | 579 | 110 | 175 | 31 | 47 | 135 | 0.302 | 0.406 | 0.627 |
| Mike Schmidt | 150 | 8.5 | 1976 | PHI | 160 | 705 | 584 | 112 | 153 | 31 | 38 | 107 | 0.262 | 0.376 | 0.524 |
| Fred Lynn | 176 | 8.4 | 1979 | BOS | 147 | 622 | 531 | 116 | 177 | 42 | 39 | 122 | 0.333 | 0.423 | 0.637 |
| Willie Stargell | 185 | 8.1 | 1971 | PIT | 141 | 606 | 511 | 104 | 151 | 26 | 48 | 125 | 0.295 | 0.398 | 0.628 |
| Eddie Mathews | 167 | 7.8 | 1959 | MLN | 148 | 682 | 594 | 118 | 182 | 16 | 46 | 114 | 0.306 | 0.390 | 0.593 |
| Luis Gonzalez | 174 | 7.6 | 2001 | ARI | 162 | 728 | 609 | 128 | 198 | 36 | 57 | 142 | 0.325 | 0.429 | 0.688 |
| Bill Terry | 156 | 7.6 | 1932 | NYG | 154 | 677 | 643 | 124 | 225 | 42 | 28 | 117 | 0.350 | 0.382 | 0.580 |
| Larry Walker | 160 | 7.4 | 2001 | COL | 142 | 601 | 497 | 107 | 174 | 35 | 38 | 123 | 0.350 | 0.449 | 0.662 |
| Johnny Mize | 156 | 7.3 | 1947 | NYG | 154 | 664 | 586 | 137 | 177 | 26 | 51 | 138 | 0.302 | 0.384 | 0.614 |
| Reggie Jackson | 166 | 6.7 | 1974 | OAK | 148 | 604 | 506 | 90 | 146 | 25 | 29 | 93 | 0.289 | 0.391 | 0.514 |
| Ken Keltner | 146 | 6.2 | 1948 | CLE | 153 | 656 | 558 | 91 | 166 | 24 | 31 | 119 | 0.297 | 0.395 | 0.522 |
| Ken Boyer | 143 | 6.2 | 1960 | STL | 151 | 616 | 552 | 95 | 168 | 26 | 32 | 97 | 0.304 | 0.370 | 0.562 |
| Travis Hafner | 181 | 5.9 | 2006 | CLE | 129 | 564 | 454 | 100 | 140 | 31 | 42 | 117 | 0.308 | 0.439 | 0.659 |
| Lance Berkman | 163 | 5.3 | 2006 | HOU | 152 | 646 | 536 | 95 | 169 | 29 | 45 | 136 | 0.315 | 0.420 | 0.621 |
| Dale Murphy | 152 | 5.3 | 1985 | ATL | 162 | 712 | 616 | 118 | 185 | 32 | 37 | 111 | 0.300 | 0.388 | 0.539 |
| Jim Thome | 155 | 4.6 | 2006 | CHW | 143 | 610 | 490 | 108 | 141 | 26 | 42 | 109 | 0.288 | 0.416 | 0.598 |
| Chase Utley | 123 | 4.6 | 2010 | PHI | 115 | 511 | 425 | 75 | 117 | 20 | 16 | 65 | 0.275 | 0.387 | 0.445 |
| Nelson Cruz | 146 | 4.3 | 2010 | TEX | 108 | 445 | 399 | 60 | 127 | 31 | 22 | 78 | 0.318 | 0.374 | 0.576 |
| Graig Nettles | 107 | 4.2 | 1974 | NYY | 155 | 638 | 566 | 74 | 139 | 21 | 22 | 75 | 0.246 | 0.316 | 0.403 |
| Tony Armas | 125 | 4.1 | 1981 | OAK | 109 | 462 | 440 | 51 | 115 | 24 | 22 | 76 | 0.261 | 0.294 | 0.480 |
| Wally Moon | 141 | 3.4 | 1961 | LAD | 134 | 561 | 463 | 79 | 152 | 25 | 17 | 88 | 0.328 | 0.434 | 0.505 |
| Jeromy Burnitz | 118 | 3.3 | 1998 | MIL | 161 | 691 | 609 | 92 | 160 | 28 | 38 | 125 | 0.263 | 0.339 | 0.499 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 130 | 3.1 | 2004 | FLA | 160 | 685 | 603 | 101 | 177 | 31 | 33 | 112 | 0.294 | 0.366 | 0.512 |
| Dave Kingman | 128 | 2.9 | 1976 | NYM | 123 | 510 | 474 | 70 | 113 | 14 | 37 | 86 | 0.238 | 0.286 | 0.506 |
| Jim Wynn | 107 | 2.9 | 1973 | HOU | 139 | 581 | 481 | 90 | 106 | 14 | 20 | 55 | 0.220 | 0.347 | 0.395 |
| Gabby Hartnett | 126 | 2.6 | 1925 | CHC | 117 | 443 | 398 | 61 | 115 | 28 | 24 | 67 | 0.289 | 0.351 | 0.555 |
| Kevin Mitchell | 141 | 2.5 | 1991 | SFG | 113 | 423 | 371 | 52 | 95 | 13 | 27 | 69 | 0.256 | 0.338 | 0.515 |
| Jim Presley | 118 | 1.9 | 1985 | SEA | 155 | 625 | 570 | 71 | 157 | 33 | 28 | 84 | 0.275 | 0.324 | 0.484 |
| Chris Shelton | 106 | 1.6 | 2006 | DET | 115 | 412 | 373 | 50 | 102 | 16 | 16 | 47 | 0.273 | 0.340 | 0.466 |
| Jermaine Dye | 105 | 1.6 | 2004 | OAK | 137 | 590 | 532 | 87 | 141 | 29 | 23 | 80 | 0.265 | 0.329 | 0.464 |
| Don Demeter | 86 | 0.9 | 1959 | LAD | 139 | 401 | 371 | 55 | 95 | 11 | 18 | 70 | 0.256 | 0.294 | 0.437 |
| Dante Bichette | 111 | 0.3 | 1994 | COL | 116 | 509 | 484 | 74 | 147 | 33 | 27 | 95 | 0.304 | 0.334 | 0.548 |
| Carlos Delgado | 103 | -0.7 | 1994 | TOR | 43 | 159 | 130 | 17 | 28 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 0.215 | 0.352 | 0.438 |
So, not unsurprisingly, the better players did better for the whole season. Nevertheless, it is a bit surprising to me how consistently strong those seasons were, and therefore how reliable a predictor the 10 game performance appears to be.
Here are the distribution moments.
| bWAR | OPS+ | HR | RBI | SLG | |
| Maximum | 10.2 | 209 | 57 | 156 | 0.720 |
| Top Quartile | 7.95 | 169 | 45 | 125 | 0.628 |
| Median | 5.3 | 148 | 35 | 110 | 0.552 |
| Mean | 5.3 | 145 | 34 | 102 | 0.554 |
| Bottom Quartile | 2.9 | 121 | 23.5 | 77 | 0.492 |
| Minimum | -0.7 | 86 | 9 | 24 | 0.395 |
Some notes:
- Over half of these seasons are among the players’ top 3 in OPS+
- Best OPS+ season: Willie McCovey, Travis Hafner, Larry Walker, Alex Rodriguez, Fred Lynn, Luis Gonzalez, Ken Keltner, Nelson Cruz, Ken Boyer, Wally Moon, Jim Presley
- 2nd or 3rd best OPS+ season: Willie Stargell, Eddie Matthews, Reggie Jackson, Ken Griffey, Lance Berkman, Larry Walker, Bill Terry, Dale Murphy, Tony Armas, Chris Shelton
- These players appeared in at least 90% of their team’s games in 24 of the 38 seasons, and in 75% of games in 33 of the 38 seasons.
- Delgado’s 6 HR came in career games 3 through 11. Dino Restelli leads with 6 HR in the first 10 games of a career followed by Delgado and six others with 5 HR.
So, starting strong right out of the gate does seem to correlate well with great players, a great season and staying healthy.
I don’t know about you but I’m expecting a big season from Matt Kemp (not that I wouldn’t have expected this anyway).
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Major drawback – the stats listed here all seem to be just for the games in which a player hit a HR through his first ten games, instead of all ten games. I clicked on Kemp’s name, and all of his 2012 counting stats (except HR) are less than on his B-R page.
First tip-off: 10 full games should normally lead to about 40 PA and 35 AB. All these players are short of that.
Good observation, Lawrence. That is P-I, though.
I’ll add an advisory to that effect.
I have to admit I didn’t catch that so those OPS numbers were pretty eye-popping. Funny thing is I DID notice how few strikeouts some of the players had and even looked to see how many plate appearances there were for several. Even so, quite a start he is off to. I would say that barring injury it’s a pretty safe bet that he will exceed that 5.3 WAR that seems to be the mid-point by a fair margin.
The second sentence of the third paragragh (just to the right of the photo) states that the stats are only for the games in which the player homered.
I remember Carlos Delgado’s tear in 1994. He had been a huge prospect and was making the jump from AA. But within a month he was at .215 and was sent back down…prematurely, I think. Granted they had Olerud (1B) and Molitor (DH), but Delgado was playing LF, and they went the rest of the way platooning Mike Huff and Darnell Coles out there. Delgado spent the rest of ’94 and most of ’95 crushing AAA pitching before sticking with the Jays in ’96. Losing those two seasons almost certainly kept him from 500 HR…probably 525.
In his first 12 starts of ’94, Delgado had 8 HRs … and 5 singles.
When you wrote about Delgado being a rookie it brought Chris Shelton to mind- I missed him on my first look at the list. Whoever had him in the fantasy league I was in at the time was trying desperately to trade him to me before he cooled off- the asking price started off on something of the order of even up for Barry Bonds (or something almost equally ridiculous) and then started dropping more and more as the weeks passed. If he ever did manage to move him it must have been for pretty much market value and it wasn’t to me.
A Marquis is a nobleman ranked below a Duke and above an Earl. Since we have no such in the US I don’t think Kemp qualifies. A marquee is a roofed covering over the front door, often with signage space as at a theater. A marquee name is a name up for advertising. Kemp clearly qualifies to have his name up in lights.
Duly noted and corrected.
Actually, there have been Dukes in baseball, the most famous one a former Dodger hero who had a 10 game start in 1955 similar to Kemp’s.
4 HR, 13 RBI, 10 BB, .361/.500/.778
Delgado was being converted from a catcher and his play in LF left a lot to be desired. BR has him at a seasonal pace of -33 runs defensively. He was sent down as much to learn a position where the Jays could use him as anything. They finally moved Olerud to make room for him at first a couple years later
That plus he stopped hitting. After hitting his 8th homerun on April 19, Delgado went 15-82 with 2 doubles and 1 home run before being sent down. He got another chance in early ’95 and went 4-26 with 1 double and 1 homerun and was sent down again.