Texas is Scorching Hot (just in case you hadn’t noticed) |

With its win yesterday, Texas became just the 41st team since 1918 to start a season with 13 or more wins in its first 16 games. What might this hot start presage for the rest of the Rangers’ season?

I’ll take a look at that question after the jump.

So, here are the teams winning 13 of their first 16 games. Note that the stats and links to individual games are for the team wins ONLY.

Rk	Tm	Year	W	L		PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	OAK	1981	15	1	Ind. Games	574	504	131	19	4	15	73	57	81	.260	.338	.403	.741
2	NYG	1918	15	1	Ind. Games	591	522	168	31	11	3	90	34	42	.322	.372	.441	.813
3	MIL	1987	15	1	Ind. Games	604	528	163	36	1	24	102	57	100	.309	.380	.517	.897
4	DET	1984	15	1	Ind. Games	596	518	155	27	6	18	89	66	81	.299	.382	.479	.861
5	SFG	2003	14	2	Ind. Games	565	477	130	22	2	20	80	74	86	.273	.372	.453	.825
6	CLE	1966	14	2	Ind. Games	518	451	121	13	5	9	43	50	67	.268	.342	.379	.721
7	BRO	1955	14	2	Ind. Games	552	463	127	28	3	23	84	69	63	.274	.377	.497	.874
8	TEX	2012	13	3	Ind. Games	527	473	149	24	2	24	84	41	80	.315	.371	.526	.898
9	STL	1931	13	3	Ind. Games	516	467	138	34	11	3	70	34	31	.296	.347	.435	.782
10	STL	1941	13	3	Ind. Games	541	478	150	22	5	13	74	44	40	.314	.374	.462	.836
11	STL	1982	13	3	Ind. Games	536	464	145	27	6	10	76	57	78	.313	.388	.461	.849
12	SFG	1997	13	3	Ind. Games	489	406	108	22	4	11	60	69	89	.266	.369	.421	.790
13	SEA	2002	13	3	Ind. Games	538	466	156	34	2	14	94	51	76	.335	.398	.506	.904
14	SDP	1998	13	3	Ind. Games	497	436	115	25	1	17	78	46	61	.264	.333	.443	.775
15	PIT	1937	13	3	Ind. Games	534	474	130	23	12	2	63	51	46	.274	.347	.386	.733
16	PIT	1921	13	3	Ind. Games	508	447	137	32	14	3	74	40	35	.306	.362	.461	.823
17	PIT	1992	13	3	Ind. Games	498	423	112	14	7	10	70	62	56	.265	.361	.402	.763
18	OAK	1978	13	3	Ind. Games	505	441	123	13	6	11	48	43	74	.279	.351	.410	.761
19	NYY	1949	13	3	Ind. Games	492	425	116	16	5	11	64	60	43	.273	.366	.412	.777
20	NYY	1987	13	3	Ind. Games	502	433	125	26	3	14	75	62	70	.289	.377	.460	.837
21	NYY	2003	13	3	Ind. Games	535	461	144	33	0	30	93	59	76	.312	.396	.579	.975
22	NYY	1926	13	3	Ind. Games	512	438	149	25	12	12	93	46	49	.340	.408	.534	.942
23	NYM	1986	13	3	Ind. Games	523	455	136	29	3	15	79	52	75	.299	.368	.475	.842
24	NYG	1938	13	3	Ind. Games	511	455	143	22	3	17	76	39	28	.314	.372	.488	.860
25	NYG	1922	13	3	Ind. Games	553	473	171	31	9	11	97	58	36	.362	.434	.535	.968
26	NYG	1924	13	3	Ind. Games	524	453	138	21	5	7	69	50	42	.305	.380	.419	.799
27	MLN	1957	13	3	Ind. Games	522	463	135	23	6	20	73	42	57	.292	.354	.497	.850
28	MIN	2001	13	3	Ind. Games	510	443	130	32	7	16	81	48	59	.293	.363	.506	.869
29	LAD	1977	13	3	Ind. Games	530	451	134	28	4	23	91	62	72	.297	.379	.530	.909
30	LAD	1981	13	3	Ind. Games	483	432	117	21	5	6	47	35	70	.271	.324	.384	.708
31	KCR	2003	13	3	Ind. Games	511	445	133	33	1	17	71	48	71	.299	.375	.492	.868
32	CLE	1988	13	3	Ind. Games	477	430	116	17	4	9	63	39	73	.270	.334	.391	.725
33	CLE	1942	13	3	Ind. Games	501	451	134	28	9	7	68	41	27	.297	.360	.446	.805
34	CIN	1990	13	3	Ind. Games	545	464	147	21	4	15	81	61	77	.317	.394	.476	.870
35	BRO	1942	13	3	Ind. Games	532	466	131	29	0	8	82	56	44	.281	.359	.395	.754
36	BOS	1946	13	3	Ind. Games	538	453	131	24	6	12	80	76	67	.289	.395	.448	.843
37	BAL	1966	13	3	Ind. Games	528	460	120	23	2	23	69	51	81	.261	.337	.470	.806
38	ATL	1982	13	3	Ind. Games	500	418	114	24	5	10	59	66	58	.273	.371	.426	.797
39	ATL	1997	13	3	Ind. Games	527	464	156	23	7	11	84	47	74	.336	.395	.487	.882
40	ATL	1983	13	3	Ind. Games	487	423	132	19	3	15	64	53	58	.312	.388	.478	.865
41	ATL	1994	13	3	Ind. Games	540	479	145	22	3	22	80	42	80	.303	.356	.499	.855

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/23/2012.

Of the 39 teams before this year (I’m omitting Atlanta in 1994 with no playoffs that year), 23 reached the playoffs, including 17 pennant winners and 11 WS winners. Prior to 1969 and the introduction of multiple playoff rounds, there are 17 teams on the list, including 9 pennant winners and 6 WS champs.

Let’s put all that in a table.

	1918-1968	1969-2011	1918-2011
Seasons	846	1168	2014	Team seasons in period
13+ Wins	17	23	40	Number of teams starting 13-3 or better
13+ Win %	2.01%	1.97%	1.99%	Percent of teams starting 13-3 or better
Playoff Chance	12.06%	20.67%	17.05%	Nominal Chance to Make Playoffs (based on no. of teams)
Made Playoffs	9	14	23	Number of 13+ Win teams making playoffs
Won Pennant	9	8	17	Number of 13+ Win teams winning pennant
Won WS	6	5	11	Number of 13+ Win temas winning WS
Playoff %	52.9%	63.6%	57.5%	% of 13+ Win teams making playoffs
Pennant %	52.9%	36.4%	42.5%	% of 13+ Win teams winning pennant
World Series %	35.3%	22.7%	27.5%	% of 13+ Win teams winning WS
Playoff Factor	4.39	3.08	3.37	Times More Likely to Make Playoffs for 13+ Win teams
Pennant Factor	–	14.29%	14.29%	Improved Pennant Win Chance for 13+ Win teams
WS Factor	33.33%	25.00%	29.41%	Improved WS Win Chance for 13+ Win teams

Clearly, starting 13-3 is not a fluke.

Teams doing so are more than 3 times as likely to make the playoffs than the nominal chance to do so based on number of teams.
Once in the playoffs, 13 win teams since 1969 are 14% more likely than their opponents to win the pennant.
Having won a pennant, 13 win teams are 29% more likely than their opponents to win the WS.

Of the 17 teams who started 13-3 and didn’t make the playoffs

9 finished .550 or better (Brooklyn finished .675 in 1942), and only 4 did not finish above .500
12 finished 2nd or 3rd, and 12 finished 10 or fewer game out of first
Two teams started 13-3 in a season and neither made the playoffs in 1942 (Cleveland and Brooklyn) and 1987 (Yankees and Milwaukee)
Cleveland has started 13-3 or better 3 times (1942, 1966, 1988) and failed to finish above .500 each time
Oakland started 13-3 in 1978, but then went 56-90 (.384) the rest of the way

All things considered, I’m liking the Rangers chances to become three-peat AL champions. And, perhaps the third time will be their World Series charm in 2012.

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Ted B

12 years ago

Suppose they lose the world series again, how many teams have lost three starit world series, other than the 1911-1913 NYG and 1907-1909 DET?

MikeD

Reply to Ted B

Looks like it’s time for a new team to join that list. It’s been just about 100 years.

bstar

Not many teams have lost two consecutive World Series either. The Rangers are only the eighth team to do this. Here’s the others:

1991-92 Atlanta Braves
1977-78 LA Dodgers
1963-64 NY Yankees
1952-53 Brooklyn Dodgers
1936-37 NY Giants
1923-24 NY Giants
1921-22 NY Yankees

Oddly, 4 of these other 7 lost to the same team in consecutive years:

77-78 Dodgers-lost to NY Yankees
52-53 Dodgers-lost to NY Yankees
36-37 Giants-lost to NY Yankees
21-22 Yankees-lost to NY Giants

Author

Doug

Reply to bstar

Also, 1921-23 was the only time the same two teams (Giants and Yankees) contested the World Series in 3 straight seasons.

Reply to Doug

I suppose if the Rangers want to draw encouragement after losing their first two World Series appearances, they are in the same territory as the New York Yankees who also lost their first two appearances in 1921-22, before winning on their third try in ’23, their first of 27 world championships and forty pennants over an approximately 90 year period.

My guess is the Rangers will not be doing as well, and indeed will have a difficult getting back for a third straight year. It’s a different game.

11 years ago

The Brooklyn Dodgers and New York Yankees contested 4 of the 5 World Series between 1952-56, with only the ’54 NY Giants-Cleveland series being the exception. NYY would win 3 of the 4 Yanks-Dodgers contests, but 3 of the 4 went to a deciding seventh game.

Jameson

Interesting post, Doug. Any chance you could break it down to 1918-1968, 1969-1993, 1995-2011? I would like to see the difference with the added playoff spots, although I suppose you could try accounting for the difference with each expansion and there’s probably a limit to how far you want to take this.

Reply to Jameson

Interesting you should ask, because, yes, there’s quite a difference.

1969-1993, 14 teams, 9 playoffs, 6 pennants, 5 WS
1995-2011, 8 teams, 5 playoffs, 2 pennants, 0 WS

birtelcom

I’m curious (1) how many games over .500 these teams finished, collectively, when you look at their full season performances, and (2) whether that shows these teams, collectively, played much better than .500 the rest of the way after their hot first 16 games.

Reply to birtelcom

The group collectively played .583 for these seasons. That’s a bit better than 94-68 for a 162 game season, or 81-65 after a 13-3 start.

The best record was Boston in 1946 at 104-50 (.675). The worst was Oakland in 1978 at 69-93 (.426).

Editor

If I’ve run the binomial distribution function in Excel correctly, the chances of a coin toss coming up heads 13 or more times out of 16 is 1.0635%. With 2,044 team seasons over the period 1918-2012, that probability would suggest that even if all teams had been exactly even in talent every season, there would still have been about 22 cases in which a team started the season with 13 or more wins in its first 16 games.

Suppose you can roughly correlate that with the results here. We had about 2% of teams starting this well, about twice as many as predicted by chance.

A bit more than half made the playoffs, so perhaps the other non-playoff half was the half that had the hot start by chance.