Pitchers who earn their losses

Posted Monday, May 28th, 2012 at 7:14 pm by Doug

A familiar television advertisement from years ago featured the actor John Houseman as pitch man for the investment firm Smith Barney. The tag line had Houseman solemnly intoning ”Smith Barney makes money the old-fashioned way – they earn it!”.

In this post, I’ll look at pitchers who, apart from their run support, earn their losses, and can thank their defense for helping out with their wins.

Here are pitchers who did not allow an unearned run over an entire season (min. 162 IP).

Rk	Player	Year	WHIP	ER	R	IP	Age	Tm	G	GS	CG	SHO	W	L	W-L%	H	BB	SO	ERA	ERA+	HR
1	Francisco Liriano	2010	1.263	77	77	191.2	26	MIN	31	31	0	0	14	10	.583	184	58	201	3.62	112	9
2	Roy Oswalt	2009	1.241	83	83	181.1	31	HOU	30	30	3	0	8	6	.571	183	42	138	4.12	100	19
3	Scott Baker	2008	1.178	66	66	172.1	26	MIN	28	28	0	0	11	4	.733	161	42	141	3.45	122	20
4	Daisuke Matsuzaka	2007	1.324	100	100	204.2	26	BOS	32	32	1	0	15	12	.556	191	80	201	4.40	108	25
5	Curt Schilling	2006	1.216	90	90	204.0	39	BOS	31	31	0	0	15	7	.682	220	28	183	3.97	120	28
6	Joel Pineiro	2005	1.481	118	118	189.0	26	SEA	30	30	2	0	7	11	.389	224	56	107	5.62	75	23
7	Kelvim Escobar	2004	1.286	91	91	208.1	28	ANA	33	33	0	0	11	12	.478	192	76	191	3.93	113	21
8	Omar Olivares	1992	1.279	84	84	197.0	24	STL	32	30	1	0	9	9	.500	189	63	124	3.84	89	20
9	Frank Tanana	1990	1.452	104	104	176.1	36	DET	34	29	1	0	9	8	.529	190	66	114	5.31	75	25
10	Rick Sutcliffe	1988	1.336	97	97	226.0	32	CHC	32	32	12	2	13	14	.481	232	70	144	3.86	94	18
11	Dick Ruthven	1976	1.436	112	112	240.1	25	ATL	36	36	8	4	14	17	.452	255	90	142	4.19	90	14
12	Dennis Ribant	1967	1.314	78	78	172.0	25	PIT	38	22	2	0	9	8	.529	186	40	75	4.08	82	16
13	Ted Wilks	1944	1.069	61	61	207.2	28	STL	36	21	16	4	17	4	.810	173	49	70	2.64	135	12

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/15/2012.

I was actually surprised there were as many of these seasons as there are. The frequency prior to the last decade was more what I was expecting. My hunch is that these seasons have become more frequent with the demise of the complete game and the unabated increase in strikeouts - ergo, the longer a pitcher stays in a game and the more balls in play there are, the more chance there will be for an error and an unearned run. Which makes Ted Wilks 1944 season quite remarkable - 16 complete games and just 70 strikeouts (although he did have that league-leading WHIP). I was thinking he also had a makeshift, wartime defense behind him, except that isn’t true. Other than rookie Emil Verban at 2B (an “experienced” rookie at 28), every Cardinal regular was a holdover from the previous season (and, except for outfielder Danny Ditwhiler, for at least two previous seasons). But, I digress.

The other thing that popped out at me was that overall this was a pretty average (or even mediocre) group of seasons – median ERA+ of 100, 5 seasons of 90 or below, 4 of 110 or above. Also, aside from Wilks and a couple of others, a pretty healthy dose of runners on base (only 4 of 13 with WHIP below 1.25) - the formula cited conventionally for putting pressure on the defense and thus inducing errors.

Going to 95% of runs allowed are earned (up to ~5 unearned runs allowed), these are the pitchers with the most seasons.

Rk		Yrs	From	To	Age
1	Curt Schilling	7	1998	2006	31-39	Ind. Seasons
2	Jamie Moyer	6	1997	2009	34-46	Ind. Seasons
3	Steve Trachsel	5	1998	2006	27-35	Ind. Seasons
4	Eric Milton	5	1998	2005	22-29	Ind. Seasons
5	David Wells	5	1996	2005	33-42	Ind. Seasons
6	Cole Hamels	4	2007	2011	23-27	Ind. Seasons
7	Ted Lilly	4	2004	2011	28-35	Ind. Seasons
8	Jarrod Washburn	4	2002	2009	27-34	Ind. Seasons
9	Mike Mussina	4	1992	2000	23-31	Ind. Seasons
10	Greg Maddux	4	1992	2007	26-41	Ind. Seasons
11	Luis Tiant	4	1973	1978	32-37	Ind. Seasons
12	Preacher Roe	4	1945	1951	29-35	Ind. Seasons

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/16/2012.

Obviously, heavily tilted to pitchers of the past 20 years with much reduced numbers of complete games and also much higher strikeout rates resulting in fewer balls in play. Among the 29 pitchers with 3 such seasons are: Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Jered Weaver, Matt Cain, Jeff Francis, Derek Lowe, Livan Hernandez, Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Al Leiter, Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Kevin Appier, Tom Browning, Rick Sutcliffe, Tom Seaver, Don Sutton and Jim Palmer. Actually, that’s most of those 29 pitchers – as you can tell, preponderantly name pitchers.

For a career (min. 1000 IP), here are the retired players whose unearned runs are less than 6% of their runs allowed.

Rk	Player	IP	ER	R	From	To	Age	G	GS	CG	SHO	W	L	W-L%	H	BB	SO	ERA	ERA+	HR
1	Curt Schilling	3261.0	1253	1318	1988	2007	21-40	569	436	83	20	216	146	.597	2998	711	3116	3.46	127	347
2	Woody Williams	2216.1	1031	1096	1993	2007	26-40	424	330	10	2	132	116	.532	2217	711	1480	4.19	103	309
3	Jarrod Washburn	1863.2	848	900	1998	2009	23-34	312	300	9	4	107	109	.495	1855	569	1103	4.10	108	240
4	Jose Lima	1567.2	917	972	1994	2006	21-33	348	235	9	1	89	102	.466	1783	393	980	5.26	85	267
5	Rick Helling	1526.1	793	842	1994	2006	23-35	301	234	10	4	93	81	.534	1540	562	1058	4.68	101	247
6	Jim Deshaies	1525.0	702	743	1984	1995	24-35	257	253	15	6	84	95	.469	1434	575	951	4.14	91	179
7	Orlando Hernandez	1314.2	604	641	1998	2007	32-41	219	211	9	2	90	65	.581	1181	479	1086	4.13	110	177
8	Arthur Rhodes	1187.2	538	560	1991	2011	21-41	900	61	5	3	87	70	.554	1033	516	1152	4.08	109	126
9	Adam Eaton	1178.2	647	688	2000	2009	22-31	209	201	3	0	71	68	.511	1253	448	855	4.94	84	167

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/20/2012.

So, every player is from the past 30 years, and most are of the low-CG and high-K style prevalent in that period.

Going to a higher threshold for the 1961-90 period, here are are the retired players (min. 1000 IP) whose career unearned runs are less than 8% of their runs allowed.

Rk	Player	IP	ER	R	From	To	Age	G	GS	CG	SHO	W	L	W-L%	H	BB	SO	ERA	ERA+	HR
1	Dennis Eckersley	2815.1	1091	1181	1975	1990	20-35	604	361	100	20	169	140	.547	2625	659	1938	3.49	116	291
2	Mike Flanagan	2637.0	1142	1240	1975	1990	23-38	420	403	101	19	165	136	.548	2672	842	1419	3.90	100	242
3	Scott McGregor	2140.2	949	1031	1976	1988	22-34	356	309	83	23	138	108	.561	2245	518	904	3.99	98	235
4	Rick Sutcliffe	2130.0	906	984	1976	1990	20-34	357	296	64	16	133	105	.559	2010	856	1412	3.83	103	178
5	Kevin Gross	1469.1	656	712	1983	1990	22-29	265	221	29	11	80	90	.471	1447	583	996	4.02	93	133
6	Mike Smithson	1356.1	690	745	1982	1989	27-34	240	204	41	6	76	86	.469	1473	383	731	4.58	92	168
7	Joey Jay	1132.1	492	534	1961	1966	25-30	195	158	49	11	75	67	.528	1092	407	727	3.91	97	120
8	Don Aase	1109.1	468	503	1977	1990	22-35	448	91	22	5	66	60	.524	1085	457	641	3.80	104	89
9	Sammy Ellis	1004.0	463	503	1962	1969	21-28	229	140	35	3	63	58	.521	967	378	677	4.15	88	118

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/28/2012.

The first four names on the list are generally well-regarded pitchers though, aside from Eckersley, do not have impressive ERA+ scores during this period.

Similarly, for the 1941-60 period, pitchers with career unearned runs of less than 9% of runs allowed (only the highlighted four were less than the 1961-90 8% threshold).

Rk	Player	IP	ER	R	From	To	Age	G	GS	CG	SHO	W	L	W-L%	H	BB	SO	ERA	ERA+	HR
1	Preacher Roe	1911.2	726	795	1944	1954	28-38	332	261	101	17	127	84	.602	1901	502	955	3.42	117	199
2	Herm Wehmeier	1803.0	961	1044	1945	1958	18-31	361	240	79	9	92	108	.460	1806	852	794	4.80	84	210
3	Carl Erskine	1718.2	763	830	1948	1959	21-32	335	216	71	14	122	78	.610	1637	646	981	4.00	101	199
4	Jim Wilson	1539.0	686	743	1945	1958	23-36	257	217	75	19	86	89	.491	1479	608	692	4.01	94	151
5	Tiny Bonham	1451.2	507	556	1941	1949	27-35	219	181	100	18	94	69	.577	1418	274	441	3.14	116	113
6	Bob Turley	1443.0	552	592	1951	1960	20-29	241	198	74	22	92	66	.582	1111	891	1070	3.44	107	110
7	Billy Hoeft	1402.0	637	685	1952	1960	20-28	279	182	71	16	77	83	.481	1421	522	835	4.09	97	138
8	Red Munger	1228.2	523	574	1943	1956	24-37	273	161	54	13	77	56	.579	1243	500	564	3.83	103	85
9	Hal Brown	1147.2	499	546	1951	1960	26-35	254	135	32	7	61	55	.526	1136	299	501	3.91	98	112
10	Paul Foytack	1094.1	495	539	1953	1960	22-29	215	144	52	6	60	63	.488	994	481	630	4.07	99	116
11	Billy Loes	1075.2	460	503	1950	1960	20-30	290	121	39	8	74	58	.561	1021	382	590	3.85	101	105
12	Carl Scheib	1070.2	581	634	1943	1954	16-27	267	107	47	6	45	65	.409	1130	493	290	4.88	85	99
13	Brooks Lawrence	1040.2	491	539	1954	1960	29-35	275	127	42	5	69	62	.527	1034	385	481	4.25	96	110

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/28/2012.

A fairly unimpressive assortment of pitchers, with only 2 of 13 with an ERA+ above 110, and two others (Wehmeier, Scheib) with attrocious scores of 85 or less.

For 1920-40, these are pitchers with career unearned runs less than 12% of runs allowed. Only the highlighted two were less than 10%, and none were below the 1941-60 threshold of 9%.

Rk	Player	IP	ER	R	From	To	Age	G	GS	CG	SHO	W	L	W-L%	H	BB	SO	ERA	ERA+	HR
1	General Crowder	2344.1	1072	1204	1926	1936	27-37	402	292	150	16	167	115	.592	2453	800	799	4.12	105	137
2	Ed Brandt	2268.1	974	1084	1928	1938	23-33	378	279	150	18	121	146	.453	2342	778	877	3.86	100	134
3	Syl Johnson	2165.2	977	1099	1922	1940	21-39	542	209	82	11	112	117	.489	2290	488	920	4.06	105	172
4	Bullet Joe Bush	1725.2	761	863	1920	1928	27-35	270	215	129	13	118	94	.557	1777	687	631	3.97	103	79
5	Tex Carleton	1607.1	698	770	1932	1940	25-33	293	202	91	16	100	76	.568	1630	561	808	3.91	100	105
6	Johnny Allen	1545.0	636	715	1932	1940	27-35	244	199	99	15	117	53	.688	1449	595	900	3.70	119	69
7	Oral Hildebrand	1430.2	692	781	1931	1940	24-33	258	182	80	9	83	78	.516	1490	623	527	4.35	108	99
8	Ted Blankenship	1330.2	634	719	1922	1930	21-29	241	156	73	8	77	79	.494	1462	489	378	4.29	94	63
9	Schoolboy Rowe	1295.2	580	649	1933	1940	23-30	216	166	88	16	96	56	.632	1357	368	601	4.03	113	85
10	Jack Knott	1261.0	702	795	1933	1940	26-33	275	151	47	4	67	81	.453	1441	524	397	5.01	97	112
11	Bob Feller	1105.1	392	440	1936	1940	17-21	161	135	89	10	82	41	.667	865	621	973	3.19	140	44
12	Johnny Marcum	1099.1	569	630	1933	1939	23-29	195	132	69	8	65	63	.508	1269	344	392	4.66	102	90
13	Bill Dietrich	1041.1	582	661	1933	1940	23-30	215	117	44	8	53	65	.449	1113	540	387	5.03	92	79

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/28/2012.

As a group, mostly a nondescript set of hurlers, with only 3 of 13 with ERA+ above 110. Players’ equipment and field conditions probably contributed a bit to higher error rates in this period.

Finally, for the 1901-19 period, here are pitchers with unearned runs of less than 22% of runs allowed, almost double the threshold of the 1920-40 period. Only the highlighted pitchers were below 20%.

Rk	Player	IP	ER	R	From	To	Age	G	GS	CG	SHO	W	L	W-L%	H	BB	SO	ERA	ERA+	HR
1	Babe Adams	2064.2	570	725	1906	1919	24-37	308	247	148	30	131	95	.580	1848	326	790	2.48	120	35
2	Bob Harmon	2054.0	761	957	1909	1918	21-30	321	240	143	15	107	133	.446	1966	762	634	3.33	90	44
3	Dick Rudolph	1923.1	548	699	1910	1919	22-31	253	222	167	26	116	97	.545	1817	362	756	2.56	107	29
4	Ray Caldwell	1857.1	620	746	1910	1919	22-31	272	214	160	19	108	104	.509	1644	626	850	3.00	101	43
5	George Suggs	1652.0	571	720	1908	1915	25-32	245	185	115	16	99	91	.521	1722	355	588	3.11	103	40
6	Dave Davenport	1537.0	501	641	1914	1919	24-29	259	186	96	18	73	83	.468	1399	521	719	2.93	101	22
7	Pol Perritt	1430.0	457	583	1912	1919	20-27	239	174	93	23	89	78	.533	1372	377	532	2.88	94	41
8	Erskine Mayer	1427.0	469	600	1912	1919	22-29	245	164	93	12	91	70	.565	1415	345	482	2.96	99	43
9	Al Demaree	1424.0	439	556	1912	1919	27-34	232	173	84	15	80	72	.526	1350	337	514	2.77	100	34
10	Gene Packard	1410.1	472	602	1912	1919	24-31	248	153	86	15	85	69	.552	1393	356	488	3.01	99	28
11	Bob Shawkey	1324.1	390	479	1913	1919	22-28	218	150	98	18	89	67	.571	1132	453	572	2.65	108	24
12	Jim Shaw	1323.2	401	513	1913	1919	19-25	234	157	79	17	72	80	.474	1102	584	675	2.73	105	14
13	Stan Coveleski	1148.1	302	376	1912	1919	22-29	176	132	86	17	82	53	.607	1014	292	423	2.37	129	13
14	Bernie Boland	1017.2	340	406	1915	1919	23-27	198	110	58	10	67	47	.588	868	390	354	3.01	96	11

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/28/2012.

Unearned runs are much more prominent in this period with few strikeouts, a lot of balls in play, and also lots of small-ball plays (bunts, hit-and-runs, steals) that test defenses and induce errors. Again, players’ equipment and field conditions may also have played a sizable factor in contributing to errors. As a whole, this group of pitchers are arguably the best of any of the career lists.

One initial surprise for me is how many lesser quality pitchers made these lists. But, on second thought, maybe that isn’t such a surprise. After all, poor pitchers can surrender runs quite readily, without any assistance from the defense. Also, they’re more likely to get yanked early, reducing the chances of errors behind them. Conversely, better pitchers will surrender fewer runs in total, so any unearned runs they allow will represent a higher percentage of runs than for lesser hurlers.

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25 Comments

1

e pluribus munu says:

May 28, 2012 at 10:32 pm

Doug, This is a fascinating post, and one I’ll want to study more. The relationship between the ER:R ratio and pitching quality is something I’ve been interested in for many years – a couple of weeks ago I raised in a post of yours on relievers and Richard Chester provided interesting information on pichers with 500+ IP whose ratio approached one. (The undistinguished Gabe White was #1 on the list.) I’ve always thought of the question in terms of how much poor pitching was concealed by the limits of ERA – obviously a pitcher who allows no unearned runs beyond what ERA indicates has done better by that measure than one who allows unearned runs too (as game scores take into account), but only assuming the ERAs are identical. You’re looking from a different angle, and the lack of obvious relationship between pitching quality and the ratio is a surprise.

One statement you make doesn’t seem quite right. I’m not sure why diminished CGs would be relevant in a season record. The runs are scored in IP, and there’s no data I know of that indicate more errors occur late in a game (although that may be the case). If one pitcher starts 35 games and averages 6 innings, while another starts 30 games and averages 7, I don’t see any reason to expect more unearned runs from the second – both have pitched 210 innings, and each inning has the same chance of errors. Perhaps you could argue that BIP increases in a starter’s late innings, but that would, I think, increase earned and unearned runs at similar rates . . .

Reply
- 5
  
  Doug says:
  
  May 29, 2012 at 1:10 am
  
  My point about CGs is that a pitcher who has a lot of CGs may have more difficulty avoiding unearned runs because he’ll have a greater chance of errors occuring behind him, whereas a pitcher who only pitches 6 or 7 innings without an unearned run can “escape” possible future damage by being relieved.
  
  As for when in a game errors occur, I don’t have any data but I strongly suspect there are more errors later in games. I think this because most pitchers perform better the 1st and 2nd time through a lineup than in later turns. The less effective a pitcher becomes, the more baserunners there are and thus, more opportunity for errors.
  
  Reply
  - 9
    
    brp says:
    
    May 29, 2012 at 12:24 pm
    
    I actually doubt this given the continued use of “defensive replacements” late in games. That should even out any increase in chances based on a starter’s reduced effectiveness later in a game.
    
    Reply
    - 10
      
      Doug says:
      
      May 29, 2012 at 1:02 pm
      
      Not sure if it would even things out, but might mitigate to some degree. Of course, defensive replacements most often enter very late in games, usually after the starter has been relieved – so that scenario wouldn’t really have any bearing on this point.
      
      Intersting to indulge in a bit of educated speculation, but would be better to find out when in games errors occur more frequently – but I’m not aware of where that data could be found.
      
      Another thought about CG is more basic. In past years, top starters with lots of CGs would get to 300 IP in a season or even well past that mark, and many would get to 250 IP. Today it seems exceptional if a starter gets to 250 IP, and even 200 IP is now seen as a high-water mark for many starters. Quite apart from anything else, that change in ptcher usage will make it easier for today’s pitchers to allow fewer unearned runs in a season.
      
      Reply
      - 11
        
        e pluribus munu says:
        
        May 29, 2012 at 1:06 pm
        
        Doug, I think the problem remains: it makes it easier to allow fewer total runs – and, I suppose, to finish a season with zero unearned runs – but I don’t see how it would otherwise affect the ratio of earned to total runs.
      - 13
        
        Doug says:
        
        May 29, 2012 at 1:29 pm
        
        epm,
        
        Agree that the ratio wouldn’t change if errors (and unearned runs) were equally likely at any point in the game. But, if those things happened more frequently later in games, then having more innings later in games would increase the unearned to total runs ratio.
        
        I don’t have any data to support the notion that errors occur more frequently later in games, but I’ve provided my rationale for that supposition.
2

kds says:

May 28, 2012 at 10:39 pm

1) The date limits chop up careers, we have Feller, but only from 1936-1940 when he was one of the greatest K pitchers in history up to that time. But not the rest of his long career.

2) Errors doesn’t say much about the quality of defense. The number of plays made is much more important than only one of the ways to not make the play. And probably not the most numerous. (Jeter makes few errors, and gets to a lot fewer balls than the average SS. Number of balls he doesn’t field is much greater than the errors he avoids.)

3) There are many more errors per 100 ground balls than there are per 100 fly balls. This method may have just selected fly ball pitchers. (There may be a correlation between those who throw high fastballs getting lots of Ks and fly balls.

Reply
- 6
  
  Doug says:
  
  May 29, 2012 at 1:19 am
  
  To be sure, kds. This is just a quick look, and lots of different directions for further study.
  
  As to your point about balls in play, I agree entirely. Which is why I emphasized that the rapid increase in strikeouts (as well as a rapid increase in HR) in the past 30 years has coincided with fewer unearned runs and, most likely, with fewer errors. That being said, unearned runs do require errors, so plays not made due to range deficiency are only a secondary factor in an analysis of unearned runs, due to their contribution to increased baserunners.
  
  Reply
3

Hartvig says:

May 29, 2012 at 12:50 am

I expected to see the great fielding Orioles teams of the late 60′s & 70′s represented somewhere on these lists and I wasn’t disappointed. I plan on coming back tomorrow when I’m had a bit of shuteye and giving this article the attention it deserves. Great stuff

Reply
4

MikeD says:

May 29, 2012 at 1:08 am

Seems likely that higher strikeouts adds to the trend, and possibly less complete games, but I’m not sure about that one. I’ll have to think about that a bit more.

One other contributing factor might be improved defense through better equipment, better fields, better lighting.

Reply
- 7
  
  Doug says:
  
  May 29, 2012 at 1:21 am
  
  Agree that better equipment and playing conditions make for better defense and reduced errors. See my reply #5 above for my thinking on complete games.
  
  Reply
  - 18
    
    MikeD says:
    
    May 30, 2012 at 1:50 am
    
    I did take a look, including the responses. I can see where a pitcher tossing 200 innings today might have a better statistical chance of making it through the season without allowing an unearned run than a pitcher tossing 300 innings. I can’t prove it, but it seems to make sense to at least consider it as a contributing factor.
    
    Reply
8

Steven says:

May 29, 2012 at 3:34 am

Dennis Ribant: The Mets’leader in single-season wins (11 in 1966) until Seaver came along-the next year.

Reply
- 14
  
  Doug says:
  
  May 29, 2012 at 1:49 pm
  
  Ribant (11-9) and Bob Shaw (11-10) in that ’66 season (the Mets 5th) were the first Mets starters with a .500 W-L% in 15+ decisions. The Mets shrewdly dealt Ribant with his perceived value up after that “big” ’66 season (114 ERA+), acquiring Don Cardwell from the Pirates. Cardwell provided 62 starts with a 106 ERA+ for the next 3 seasons,though he could only manage a 20-32 mark in that time.
  
  Ribant had one 82 ERA+ season in Pittsburgh (the season he allowed no unearned runs), then finished out his career as a reliever with 4 different teams over 2 seasons. In all, Ribant pitched for 6 teams in a 6-year career of 149 games.
  
  Reply
12

JDV says:

May 29, 2012 at 1:26 pm

Very interesting post. One comment on your introductory remarks that included, ” pitchers who…can thank their defense for helping out with their wins”. While there’s certainly truth to this, good pitching and good defense are symbiotic. A pitcher, whose defense missed a play, can help them (and himself) out with a key K or GIDP. Every guy who makes an error hopes the team can get out of that inning without it costing a run(s), and they definitely appreciate a pitcher who can bear down (or appear to do so) to work out of the jam.

Reply
- 15
  
  no statistician but says:
  
  May 29, 2012 at 7:13 pm
  
  JDV: I agree entirely.
  
  A seldom mentioned skill nowadays is the pick-off. In the 1950′s, Whitey Ford was so adept at picking runners off that they simply gave up trying to steal, or when they did try they were usually mowed down. Look at Ford’s steals vs. attempts: 19 vs 51 from 1950 through 1964 plus 60 picked runners. The 10 steals he gave up in 1965 and 1966 are due mostly to the fact that Elston Howard’s arm gave out and the word got around. Up till then Berra and Howard were good at nailing runners, yeah, but when Whitey was on the mound they were sensational. Why? Because the runners hesitated the nanosecond necessary to make sure the ball was going to the plate rather than first base.
  
  My point, as usual, comes late: baseball isn’t about stats but about play and players, how they perform, especially under duress. A man gets on base? All right—what do you do about it?
  
  Reply
  - 19
    
    Lawrence Azrin says:
    
    May 30, 2012 at 12:20 pm
    
    I recall reading that in the deadball era, there was a pitcher whose pickoff move was so good (Nick Altrock? Doc White?) that sometimes he would deliberately walk a batter so that he could pick a runner off of first base.
    
    I know this sounds like a “tall tale”, has anyone else read of this?
    
    Checking B-R, pitcher’s pickoffs have been tracked only since 1948. I do not see them listed in the Pitching Leaderboards – does anyone know the career leader is?
    
    Reply
    - 20
      
      no statistician but says:
      
      May 30, 2012 at 5:38 pm
      
      Checking a few obvious suspects by trial and error: Warren Spahn 87 in the 4800+ innings we know about ( 2+ years prior to 1948 not covered), Nolan Ryan 66 in 5300+ innings, Whitey Ford 64 in 3100+ innings. No one else I could find had over 47. Per inning pitched, Ford is way ahead .0206 to .0181 for Spahn.
      
      Spahn’s stolen base stats for those years: 77 vs 67 caught. In my post above I mistook caught stealing for attempts for Ford, so he was even more dominant: 19 steals, 51 caught, through 1964. To career’s end: 29 steals, 55 caught.
      
      His move was phenomenal: I remember it even now after 50 years—only from the TV view, but that might have been better. You literally could not tell until he released the ball which way it was going.
      
      Reply
      - 21
        
        Richard Chester says:
        
        May 30, 2012 at 5:47 pm
        
        Andy Pettite has 101 pickoffs. With 3083 IP his ratio is 0.0328.
      - 22
        
        no statistician but says:
        
        May 30, 2012 at 7:07 pm
        
        RC:
        
        Outstanding!
        
        Never thought to look at Pettite.
      - 23
        
        MikeD says:
        
        May 30, 2012 at 7:19 pm
        
        Pettitte, darn it, Pettitte. Two sets of double T’s!
        
        Just think of Double D’s, but with T’s. : -)
        
        Seriously, Pettitte has an exceptional pickoff move, although I saw some data that he’s more middle of the pack on steal attempts. In other words, he doesn’t shut the running game down entirely as a few other pitchers do. Of course, that’s why he gets so many pickoffs. Runners think they can read his move, and like the moth to the flame, they get nailed.
        
        For some reason I’m thinking Mark Buehrle rates very high in limiting steal attempts, which is a very different stat than pickoffs.
      - 24
        
        no statistician but says:
        
        May 30, 2012 at 11:36 pm
        
        MikeD:
        
        Actually, Burle—Joke?— looks like the real deal. To date, Mark Buehrle:
        
        Pickoffs—86 in 2500+ innings. 50 stolen base allowed, 68 caught stealing.
        
        In 2003 and 2007 only five steals attempted, and generally low every year.
        
        All these guys are lefties, of course, and that’s an advantage, but, to go back to my original point @#15, they make the most of their talents to minimize the chances of the opposition in a way that is statistically hard to measure. How do you make an accounting of a stolen base that isn’t attempted, a runner who holds at second who would have gone to third if he wasn’t staying close? A broken hit-and-run, a putout at second on a bunt attempt, a double play that would have only been a forceout if the runner had gotten a better lead?
      - 25
        
        no statistician but says:
        
        May 31, 2012 at 1:14 pm
        
        The last update?
        
        Steve Carlton. Of course.
        
        163 pickoffs in 5200+ innings. 314 SBs, 226 CS.
        
        So more like Pettitte than Ford and Buehrle, in an era of many base-stealing attempts, meaning more foolish runners, I’d guess.
16

Brendan says:

May 29, 2012 at 10:59 pm

On equipment and field conditions contributing to errors:
One relevant “field condition” is that approximately 10 years ago (I don’t remember exactly when) protective fencing was installed in front of all MLB dugouts. This innovation has probably had the dual effect of reducing the number of infield errors and reducing their impact. In short, far fewer batters wind up on second base as a result of an infielder overthrowing first base. It seems to me that this one change might have had a substantial effect on the number of unearned runs scored.

Reply
- 17
  
  Doug says:
  
  May 30, 2012 at 1:18 am
  
  Good thought, Brendan.
  
  I heard on the YES telecast tonight that Oakland still doesn’t have railings in front of their dugouts, possibly because the dugouts are so far from the field it wouldn’t make a difference.
  Regardless, though, that could be a way to test your theory.
  
  Reply

High Heat Stats

Pitchers who earn their losses

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