From the beginning of the 2008 season through last night’s ninth-inning win, the Tampa Bay Rays have a .571 winning percentage in regular season games (388 wins, 291 losses). That’s the third best record in the majors over that period, behind the Yankees (.590) and the Phillies (.585).
To maintain at least a .571 record for the period 2008 through the full 2012 season, the Rays would have to finish with at least 95 wins this season, which is tough but possible. They did won 97 games in ’08 and 96 games in 2010, and they are already at 20 wins in 31 games for the 2012 season, the second-best record in the majors at the moment. As discussed after the jump, that .571 level over five seasons of play is an unusual level of sustained success for a franchise created after 1960.
Of the thirty franchises in the major leagues, fourteen began play after 1960 (the others date back to at 1901 or earlier). It is has been relatively rare for a post-1960 franchise to sustain a full five-season period of winning at a rate of .571 or better, as now seems within the Rays’ reach for the 2008-2012 period. Here’s a list of post-1960 franchises that have had full five-season periods with a winning percentage of .571 or better:
Royals 1976-1980 (.575 winning percentage over that five-year period)
Mets 1984-1988 (.604), 1985-1989 (.600), 1986-1990 (.592)
Mariners 1999-2003 (.583)
Angels 2004-2008 (.580), 2005-2009 (.586)
The Royals of 1976-1980 were managed for the fist four years by Whitey Herzog, but it was Jim Frey who finally took them to the World Series in 1980. Kansas City didn’t win its only world championship until later, 1985, though a number of the stars from those late 70’s teams were still around for the 1985 World Series win : George Brett, Frank White, Willie Wilson, Hal McRae, Dan Quisenberry.
The Mets of 1984-1990 were managed throughout by Davey Johnson and won one world championship, in 1986.
The Mariners of 1999-2003 were manged by Lou Piniella, except for the last year of the sequence, when Bob Melvin was at the helm. The Mariners of ’99-’03, like every other Mariners team, fell short of getting to the World Series.
The Angels of 2004-2009 were managed by Mike Scioscia, who took over the club in 2000 and has been running them ever since. Who were the managers of the Angels in 1999, just before Scioscia arrived? For most of that 1999 season the manager was Terry Collins, now running the Mets, and for the last 29 games of that 1999 season the Angels manager was Joe Maddon, the Rays’ manager since 2006. The Angels and Scioscia won their world championship in 2002, before the string of consistent multi-season excellence that began in 2004. The Angels dropped to 77 wins in their post-championship season of 2003, and despite the sustained regular season success of 2004-2009, have not managed to get back to the World Series since ’02.
Other post-1960 franchises have won world championships, but without sustaining regular season success at the .571 level for five seasons. Toronto won back -to-back championships in 1992 and 1993, and they had the best regular season in the majors over the five-year period from 1989 to 1993, but that was with a .564 winning percentage. Arizona won a world championship in just its fourth season of its existence, during a five-year period (from its second through its sixth year of play) in which the D-backs’ regular season record was a very solid .567, just short of Tampa’s current 2008-2012 level of .571. And the Marlins have won two world championships (1997 and 2003) but have never had even one single regular season with a winning percentage as high as .571.
Can Tampa keep up their extended period of baseball excellence? And will they cash it in with a world championship at some point?
