Putting the ball in play – Anti-TTO specialists
HHS reader Paul E recently identified that Adam Dunn is on pace to obliterate the record for the highest season total of strikeouts and walks, believed to be Mark McGwire‘s 317 (162 BB, 155 SO) in 1998, one of only a handful of seasons above 300. Dunn, though, is currently on pace for 133 BB and 260 SO, perilously close to the 400 mark.
Strikeouts and walks are two of the TTOs (three true outcomes – HRs are the third), so named because a batter’s PA does NOT result in a batted ball being put into play (at least not so that the defense can do anything about it). McGwire’s total in 1998 for all of the TTOs was 387, a mark that Dunn, barring injury, is certainly likely to challenge, if not surpass.
But, what about the opposite end of the spectrum – which hitters have accumulated the lowest TTO totals? I’ll take a look after the jump.
Here are the seasons (min. 502 PA) since 1901 with 15 or fewer of each of the TTOs.
| Rk | Player | Year | HR | SO | BB | PA | Age | Tm | Lg | G | R | H | 2B | RBI | Pos | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Woody Jensen | 1935 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 104 | 657 | 27 | PIT | NL | 143 | 97 | 203 | 28 | 62 | .324 | .344 | .429 | .773 | *7/9 |
| 2 | Stuffy McInnis | 1924 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 83 | 611 | 33 | BSN | NL | 146 | 57 | 169 | 23 | 59 | .291 | .311 | .360 | .671 | *3 |
| 3 | Stuffy McInnis | 1922 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 84 | 582 | 31 | CLE | AL | 142 | 58 | 164 | 28 | 78 | .305 | .325 | .389 | .715 | *3 |
| 4 | Irish Meusel | 1919 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 115 | 548 | 26 | PHI | NL | 135 | 65 | 159 | 26 | 59 | .305 | .327 | .411 | .738 | 798 |
| 5 | Lave Cross | 1904 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 113 | 639 | 38 | PHA | AL | 155 | 73 | 176 | 31 | 71 | .290 | .310 | .379 | .689 | *5 |
| 6 | Charlie Hickman | 1902 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 158 | 564 | 26 | TOT | AL | 130 | 74 | 193 | 36 | 110 | .361 | .387 | .539 | .926 | *37/41 |
So, Stuffy McInnis looks to be our winner, with TTO totals of 21 and 22 (followed closely by Lave Cross at 23) to go with predictably poor OPS+ scores below 85. But, look at those other seasons – pretty decent OPS+, especially for Charlie Hickman, whose 1902 season included leading the AL in hits and total bases, 2nd in HR and RBI, and 3rd in OPS+ and WAR (but not good enough for the Boston Americans, who sold Hickman to Cleveland in early June).
Of course, none of those seasons has come in the past 75 years, so let’s adjust our parameters a touch. Here are the players since 1925 with 15 or fewer HRs and 20 or fewer walks and strikeouts.
| Rk | Player | Year | HR | SO | BB | PA | Age | Tm | Lg | G | R | H | 2B | RBI | Pos | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Don Mueller | 1955 | 8 | 12 | 19 | 90 | 640 | 28 | NYG | NL | 147 | 67 | 185 | 21 | 83 | .306 | .326 | .393 | .720 | *9 |
| 2 | Don Mueller | 1953 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 96 | 502 | 26 | NYG | NL | 131 | 56 | 160 | 12 | 60 | .333 | .360 | .404 | .764 | *97 |
| 3 | Emil Verban | 1945 | 0 | 15 | 19 | 77 | 635 | 29 | STL | NL | 155 | 59 | 166 | 22 | 72 | .278 | .304 | .342 | .645 | *4 |
| 4 | Emil Verban | 1944 | 0 | 14 | 19 | 62 | 538 | 28 | STL | NL | 146 | 51 | 128 | 14 | 43 | .257 | .287 | .293 | .580 | *4 |
| 5 | Frank McCormick | 1938 | 5 | 17 | 18 | 113 | 671 | 27 | CIN | NL | 151 | 89 | 209 | 40 | 106 | .327 | .348 | .425 | .773 | *3 |
| 6 | Buddy Hassett | 1937 | 1 | 19 | 20 | 94 | 595 | 25 | BRO | NL | 137 | 71 | 169 | 31 | 53 | .304 | .334 | .387 | .721 | *3/879 |
| 7 | Woody Jensen | 1936 | 10 | 19 | 16 | 88 | 731 | 28 | PIT | NL | 153 | 98 | 197 | 34 | 58 | .283 | .305 | .404 | .709 | *7/8 |
| 8 | Woody Jensen | 1935 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 104 | 657 | 27 | PIT | NL | 143 | 97 | 203 | 28 | 62 | .324 | .344 | .429 | .773 | *7/9 |
| 9 | Homer Summa | 1928 | 3 | 15 | 20 | 78 | 549 | 29 | CLE | AL | 134 | 60 | 143 | 26 | 57 | .284 | .319 | .365 | .684 | *9 |
| 10 | Bing Miller | 1925 | 10 | 14 | 19 | 106 | 525 | 30 | PHA | AL | 124 | 78 | 151 | 29 | 81 | .319 | .355 | .485 | .841 | *973 |
We’ve added a few more seasons, but still none in the past 50 years. Take a look at Woody Jensen’s 1936 season and his league-leading 731 PAs. Adding his 6 HBPs to his TTO totals, he put the ball in play 680 times, but apparently not with great effect (even with 197 hits) as evidenced by his 88 OPS+. In fact, only Frank McCormick’s 1938 season with 113 OPS+ and a league-leading 209 hits looks worth writing home about.
Another tweak of our selection criteria. Here are seasons since 1950 with 15 or fewer HR and 25 or fewer walks and strikeouts.
| Rk | Player | Year | HR | SO | BB | PA | Age | Tm | Lg | G | R | H | 2B | RBI | Pos | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ozzie Guillen | 1997 | 4 | 24 | 22 | 62 | 527 | 33 | CHW | AL | 142 | 59 | 120 | 21 | 52 | .245 | .275 | .337 | .612 | *6 |
| 2 | Felix Fermin | 1993 | 2 | 14 | 24 | 67 | 514 | 29 | CLE | AL | 140 | 48 | 126 | 16 | 45 | .263 | .303 | .317 | .619 | *6 |
| 3 | Tim Foli | 1982 | 3 | 22 | 14 | 60 | 528 | 31 | CAL | AL | 150 | 46 | 121 | 14 | 56 | .252 | .273 | .308 | .581 | *6/45 |
| 4 | Tim Foli | 1980 | 3 | 23 | 19 | 72 | 540 | 29 | PIT | NL | 127 | 61 | 131 | 22 | 38 | .265 | .296 | .327 | .623 | *6 |
| 5 | Glenn Beckert | 1972 | 3 | 17 | 23 | 77 | 510 | 31 | CHC | NL | 120 | 51 | 128 | 22 | 43 | .270 | .304 | .344 | .648 | *4 |
| 6 | Glenn Beckert | 1971 | 2 | 24 | 24 | 108 | 570 | 30 | CHC | NL | 131 | 80 | 181 | 18 | 42 | .342 | .367 | .406 | .773 | *4 |
| 7 | Glenn Beckert | 1969 | 1 | 24 | 24 | 78 | 582 | 28 | CHC | NL | 131 | 69 | 158 | 22 | 37 | .291 | .325 | .341 | .666 | *4 |
| 8 | Felipe Alou | 1969 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 86 | 509 | 34 | ATL | NL | 123 | 54 | 134 | 13 | 32 | .282 | .319 | .345 | .663 | *89/7 |
| 9 | Bobby Richardson | 1963 | 3 | 22 | 25 | 76 | 668 | 27 | NYY | AL | 151 | 72 | 167 | 20 | 48 | .265 | .294 | .330 | .624 | *4 |
| 10 | Vic Power | 1963 | 10 | 24 | 22 | 88 | 578 | 35 | MIN | AL | 138 | 65 | 146 | 28 | 52 | .270 | .297 | .384 | .682 | *34/5 |
| 11 | Nellie Fox | 1963 | 2 | 17 | 24 | 72 | 582 | 35 | CHW | AL | 137 | 54 | 140 | 19 | 42 | .260 | .299 | .306 | .605 | *4 |
| 12 | Vic Power | 1960 | 10 | 20 | 24 | 93 | 624 | 32 | CLE | AL | 147 | 69 | 167 | 26 | 84 | .288 | .313 | .395 | .707 | *3/65 |
| 13 | Vic Power | 1956 | 14 | 16 | 24 | 107 | 559 | 28 | KCA | AL | 127 | 77 | 164 | 21 | 63 | .309 | .340 | .447 | .787 | *34/7 |
| 14 | Don Mueller | 1955 | 8 | 12 | 19 | 90 | 640 | 28 | NYG | NL | 147 | 67 | 185 | 21 | 83 | .306 | .326 | .393 | .720 | *9 |
| 15 | Don Mueller | 1954 | 4 | 17 | 22 | 109 | 657 | 27 | NYG | NL | 153 | 90 | 212 | 35 | 71 | .342 | .363 | .444 | .807 | *9 |
| 16 | Don Mueller | 1953 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 96 | 502 | 26 | NYG | NL | 131 | 56 | 160 | 12 | 60 | .333 | .360 | .404 | .764 | *97 |
The seasons just get worse. Only 3 seasons over 100 OPS+, and to do that you have to hit .342 or show some pop with 14 HR.
But, we’re still looking for recent years. Here are the players since 1987 with 15 or fewer HRs and 30 or fewer walks and strikeouts.
| Rk | Player | Year | HR | SO | BB | PA | Age | Tm | Lg | G | R | H | 2B | RBI | Pos | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeff Keppinger | 2008 | 3 | 24 | 30 | 71 | 502 | 28 | CIN | NL | 121 | 45 | 122 | 24 | 43 | .266 | .310 | .346 | .657 | *65/43 |
| 2 | A.J. Pierzynski | 2004 | 11 | 27 | 19 | 86 | 510 | 27 | SFG | NL | 131 | 45 | 128 | 28 | 77 | .272 | .319 | .410 | .729 | *2 |
| 3 | Ozzie Guillen | 1997 | 4 | 24 | 22 | 62 | 527 | 33 | CHW | AL | 142 | 59 | 120 | 21 | 52 | .245 | .275 | .337 | .612 | *6 |
| 4 | Gary Disarcina | 1997 | 4 | 29 | 17 | 54 | 583 | 29 | ANA | AL | 154 | 52 | 135 | 28 | 47 | .246 | .271 | .326 | .597 | *6 |
| 5 | Ozzie Guillen | 1996 | 4 | 27 | 10 | 64 | 528 | 32 | CHW | AL | 150 | 62 | 131 | 24 | 45 | .263 | .273 | .367 | .640 | *6/7 |
| 6 | Carlos Baerga | 1996 | 12 | 27 | 21 | 72 | 544 | 27 | TOT | ML | 126 | 59 | 129 | 28 | 66 | .254 | .293 | .381 | .674 | *43/5 |
| 7 | Brian Harper | 1993 | 12 | 29 | 29 | 107 | 573 | 33 | MIN | AL | 147 | 52 | 161 | 26 | 73 | .304 | .347 | .425 | .772 | *2/D |
| 8 | Felix Fermin | 1993 | 2 | 14 | 24 | 67 | 514 | 29 | CLE | AL | 140 | 48 | 126 | 16 | 45 | .263 | .303 | .317 | .619 | *6 |
| 9 | Jose Lind | 1992 | 0 | 29 | 26 | 55 | 507 | 28 | PIT | NL | 135 | 38 | 110 | 14 | 39 | .235 | .275 | .269 | .544 | *4 |
| 10 | Brian Harper | 1992 | 9 | 22 | 26 | 109 | 546 | 32 | MIN | AL | 140 | 58 | 154 | 25 | 73 | .307 | .343 | .410 | .753 | *2/D |
| 11 | Brian Harper | 1990 | 6 | 27 | 19 | 107 | 509 | 30 | MIN | AL | 134 | 61 | 141 | 42 | 54 | .294 | .328 | .432 | .760 | *2D/53 |
Looks like Brian Harper is the only player who can be consistently successful (or, at least, above average) hitting this way.
And, for our lifetime achievement awards, here are the players with the most 15-30-30 TTO seasons.
Some new names, including a few HOFers. So, while not recommended, a select few can succeed with this approach to hitting.
Finally, I was curious how low l would have to go in PAs to get a season with single digits in all TTOs.
| Rk | Player | PA | HR | SO | BB | Year | Age | Tm | Lg | G | R | H | 2B | RBI | Pos | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ossee Schrecongost | 376 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 105 | 1902 | 27 | TOT | AL | 97 | 50 | 117 | 17 | 52 | .327 | .345 | .402 | .747 | *23/8 |
| 2 | Emil Verban | 363 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 73 | 1949 | 33 | CHC | NL | 98 | 38 | 99 | 11 | 22 | .289 | .309 | .327 | .635 | *4 |
| 3 | Malachi Kittridge | 283 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 70 | 1904 | 34 | WSH | AL | 81 | 11 | 64 | 7 | 24 | .242 | .266 | .268 | .534 | *2 |
| 4 | Lloyd Waner | 274 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 1930 | 24 | PIT | NL | 68 | 32 | 94 | 8 | 36 | .362 | .376 | .427 | .803 | *8 |
| 5 | Tommy Thevenow | 262 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 89 | 1933 | 29 | PIT | NL | 73 | 20 | 79 | 5 | 34 | .312 | .320 | .340 | .660 | *4/65 |
| 6 | Jimmy Archer | 262 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 77 | 1914 | 31 | CHC | NL | 79 | 17 | 64 | 9 | 19 | .258 | .284 | .310 | .595 | *2 |
| 7 | Jack Bentley | 256 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 63 | 1926 | 31 | TOT | NL | 78 | 19 | 63 | 12 | 27 | .258 | .273 | .357 | .630 | *3/1 |
| 8 | Larry Milbourne | 247 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 55 | 1978 | 27 | SEA | AL | 93 | 31 | 53 | 6 | 20 | .226 | .254 | .295 | .549 | 564D |
| 9 | Bill Cunningham | 244 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 100 | 1922 | 27 | NYG | NL | 85 | 37 | 75 | 15 | 33 | .328 | .350 | .437 | .787 | *8/75 |
| 10 | Jesus Alou | 232 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 83 | 1974 | 32 | OAK | AL | 96 | 13 | 59 | 8 | 15 | .268 | .288 | .332 | .620 | D9/7 |
And, there you have it. Only Ossee Schrecongost at the top of the list qualified for the batting title. Ossee was a catcher with 10 seasons ranging from 239 to 453 PAs, all but one a 15-30-30 season (he had one season with 31 Ks). For Ossee’s career of over 3000 PAs, his TTO total was 256, which Adam Dunn may surpass with just his strikeouts this year.
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Why does HBP fall outside of the TTO spectrum? Because that would make it FTO?
Don’t know, yippee.
I suspect it may be because walks are seen as more of a skill than HBP.
Ask Ron Hunt or Reed Johnson
Any post with Malachi Jeddidah Kittridge in it is a special one!
Good old Malachi was new to me. He must have been pretty good defensively to put up a semi-decent WAR with a 16 year career OPS+ of 56.
Ozzie was one name I immediately thought of. I was a little surprised not to see Alfredo Griffin but he struck out too often to qualify.
Just noticed we have Malachi and Jesus in the same list – the prophet and the prophesied.
Ossee Schrecongost must have some kind of Biblical connection.
Ossee’s name came up on a blog on Baseball Reference sometime during 2011 but I can’t remember why.
It’s in the Book of Genesis: “In the big inning, Ossee Schrecongost singled twice.”
It looks like McGwire’s total of 317 BB + SO is the record. It’s easy to find on PI. To get 317 a player has to have at least 159 BB or SO. Run PI with BB=> 159 and sort by SO and add the numbers of each player. Then run PI with SO => 159 and sort by BB and add the numbers. Three other players have exceeded 300, Cust with 308, Dunn with 306 and 303 and Howard with 306.
Talking about the Three True Outcomes, Dunn could lead the AL in all three this year. As we know, he’s leading in walks and strikeouts. He’s also tied for 2nd in homeruns, 4 behind Hamilton. This could be the new triple crown!!!
BTW, I know I asked before about players who lead in both walks and Ks and there were a handful who had done that. But what about adding in home runs? Could Dunn be the first to lead in all three?
The Babe did it in 1923, 24, 27 & 28. KIllebrew did it in ’69. Mike Schmidt did it in 1983. Foxx made a run at it a few times and Mark McGwire was close a couple of times. Gavvy Cravath was close in 1915. When I say close I mean they finished like first, first and second or third or first, second & second or something like that. In most of the cases I looked at they were at least 10 walks or strikeouts or more away from the first place finisher so it’s not like a couple of swings or lack thereof would have changed the outcomes however. I also only checked a couple of handfuls of players that came to me off the top of my head and only looked at it from a lead in home runs plus 1 other category standpoint (except for one season of Foxx’s) so it’s possible there are some cases where they led in both strikeouts and walks and only missed by a homer or 2 that I didn’t catch. No statistician but caught Mantle.
I’d guess they are a few more that we’re probably still missing.
Hack Wilson led in all three in 1930. In 1941 Dolf Camilli led in HR and SO and was 2nd in BB.
Hartvig: Killebrew did not lead the league in so in 1969
Other guys who came close:
Dolf Camilli lost the HR championship in 1939 by 2 HR.
Hank Greenberg was 5 SO behind the leader in 1938.
Frank Howard was 10 SO behind the leader in 1970.
Thanks Hartvig, Richard and No Statistician.
My bad.
Looks like jumping from page to page, I got the RBI/BB columns somehow mixed up on him.
Dale Murphy led all 3 categories in 1985.
Frank Howard missed by 10 strikeouts in 1970.
Jason Giambi missed by 6 HR in 2003.
Jack Cust missed by 4 HR in 2008.
Mickey Mantle, 1958:
42 HR, 129 BB, 120 SO.
Mcgwire 1998 had 162 BB and 155 SO, not the other way around. The walks were a NL record, beating Bonds, who got the record back later. But I mean come on, he set a league record that year in an important category and you don’t even remember?!
Thanks for the correction, kds
. I’ve fixed it now.
Doug, These are neat tables, and they highlight the reason why some players, like Little Poison, have seen their reputations plummet with new approaches to statistics. But the general mediocity of anti-TTO specialists is really built into the stat. Success in TTO is a product of adopting the Ruthian trade-off of SO for long hits, including HRs – success in that Two-True trade breeds BBs (though obviously, some players are better than others at adding patience and sharp judgment to intimidation to induce them). The result is that a good TTO record yields two positives in return for a negative (and perhaps not a particularly strong negative). The TTO seasons you’re looking at here reverse that, because these are guys who didn’t undertake the trade and who also lacked the combination of patience and judgment that yields walks. You’d need an extremely high yield of non-HR TB (like McCormick’s 40+ doubles or an average like Hickman’s) to really do well.
The real contest of strategies, I think, would be with Joe Sewell-type guys, who combined high walks (for his era) with almost no power and no SOs. Other possible comparitors might include Roy Thomas, Eddie Yost, and Ron Hunt (yes, adding HBPs, since in his case the pitcher often had little to do with the physical attraction baseballs had for him), although for some of those guys, avoidance of SOs was not the focus that BBs were. These guys were really trying to make their way on exceptional small ball skills, and except for Thomas, in a big ball era.
Well said, epm. I’m thinking your ideas and BSK’s below will make for an interesting future post – what are the ideal TTO range (or ranges as I mentioned in my reply to BSK)?
Your modification of BSK’s project seems like the direction(s) to go. One of them might lead directly to Eddie Gaedel.
You mean that 3′ 7″ batters are the new market inneficiency?
I certainly don’t, Lawrence. I know little enough about baseball in this company – when it comes to finance theory, I don’t even know enough to understand your question. But I would make the arithmetically bold claim that little as he was, anti-TTO Eddie is the all time high in OPS/inch.
HEY EVERYONE! Been a while…
Is there a way to figure out the “ideal” range for TTO? It seems pretty clear that an obscenely high TTO is better than an obscenely low one. But where is the ideal one, based on the total OPS+ of the guys in that given range?
Excellent thought, BSK. And, welcome back.
That sounds like an interesting study – something for a future post. My hunch is there are probably different TTO combinations that work, and others that don’t, as implied in epm’s post @12.
Inspired by Doug’s post, I’ve run an Excel spreadsheet on TTO percentages (the percentage of a hitter’s PAs that were strikeouts, walks or homers). In the expansion era (1961-2011), it looks like the lowest TTO percentage seasons by hitters with at least 502 PAs have been:
Matty Alou (PIT, 1970) 6.82%
Tim Foli (NYM/PIT, 1979) 7.24%
Tim Foli (CAL, 1982) 7.386%
Nellie Fox (CHW, 1963) 7.388%
Bobby Richardson (NYY, 1963) 7.485%
In the six-division era:
Ozzie Guillen (CHW, 1996) 7.77%
Gary Disarcina (ANA, 1997) 8.58%
Ozzie Guillen (CHW, 1997) 9.49%
Juan Pierre (LAD, 2007) 9.60%
Juan Pierre (CHN, 2006) 9.73%
Thanks for this birtelcom,
In a kind of bizarre way(that isn’t really the word I want, but that word isn’t coming to me), you have to tip your hat to the modern day contact guys – just a percentage point or two off their predecessors from past decades, and the modern guys have to deal with a much more varied array of pitching (especially within a game), including a much higher proportion of flame-throwing strikeout artists.
Rickey Weeks has some interesting TTO numbers!
#30/e pluribus munu –
Sorry to be so cryptic but, “You mean that 3′ 7″ batters are the new market ineficiency?” is a takeoff/satire on the Moneyball phrase c. 2003 “Hitters who get on base (high OBA) are the new market inefficiency”, implying that OBA was undervalued in the free-agent market. Sorry for the confusion.
I was just trying to be needlessly clever.
I hope that we’re not going to limit cleverness to the needful kind. I wouldn’t have a thing to say.
Not true, you have plenty of useful AND clever things to say here.