There have been some funky things going on with 1-run games in 2012. The Orioles have played 25 of them already and won 19, a remarkably high percentage. (This is thanks mainly to luck and unlikely to be maintained the rest of the season.) The Athletics just swept four games from the Yankees and won each one by 1 run. The Phillies had been 11-18 in 1-run games until winning two such games in a row the last 2 days.
All of this 1-run-ness has me wondering if it’s more common in 2012. Certainly, it would seem likely that 1-run games would be more common when overall scoring is lower. When teams average closer to 4 runs a game than 5, it means that a higher fraction of final game scores will be 1-run decisions. There’s also something to be said for strategy–when overall scoring is lower, managers are more likely to “play for” 1 run, i.e. use sacrifices to advance runners, lessening the chance of a big inning.
Anyway, there’s a quick way to look up the basic numbers for such a study.
Looking at Baseball-Reference.com’s 2012 league standings page, each team’s performance in 1-run games is provided. The league average is also provided. Through yesterday, the average major league team is 48-48 overall and 13-13 in 1-run games. Obviously these numbers are rounded, so let’s not put any significant digits on our forthcoming calculations. With 26 out of 96 games being decided by 1-run, that means 27% of each team’s games fit the bill so far in 2012.
Using the same data for last year, the average team comes out to 80-80 (remember the rounding) with a 25-25 record in 1-run games. That’s 31%. So, it seems that so far, 1-run games are actually down in 2012 compared to last year.
Here are calculations going further back:
2010: 81-81, 24-24, 30% 2009: 81-81, 21-21, 26% 2008: 80-80, 22-22, 28% 2007: 81-81, 22-22, 27% 2006: 80-80, 22-22, 28% 2005: 81-81, 23-23, 28% 2004: 80-80, 21-21, 26% 2003: 80-80, 21-21, 26% 2002: 80-80, 22-22, 28% 2001: 80-80, 21-21, 26% 2000: 80-80, 23-23, 29% 1999: 80-80, 22-22, 28% 1998: 81-81, 23-23, 28% 1997: 80-80, 22-22, 28% 1996: 80-80, 23-23, 29% 1995: 72-72, 19-19, 26% 1994: 57-57, 16-16, 28% 1993: 81-81, 24-24, 30% 1992: 81-81, 25-25, 31% 1991: 80-80, 24-24, 30% 1990: 80-80, 23-23, 29% 1989: 80-80, 23-23, 29% 1988: 80-80, 24-24, 30% 1987: 80-80, 23-23, 29%
There does appear to be at least a vague correlation with scoring. For the 7 years up to the beginning of the Steroids Era, the data above sums to 562-562, 166-166, or 29.5%. For the next 16 seasons (1994-2009), the data sums to 1253-1253, 343-343, 27.4%. That’s a pretty significant gap, showing that 1-run games have been lower since the offense went up in the Steroids Era.
Then, for the period comprising 2010, 2011, and 2012 year-to-date, the totals are 209-209, 62-62, 29.7%. So, as scoring has dropped the last couple of years, 1-run games have gone back up in prevalence to their pre-Steroid levels.
Nothing earth-shattering here…just makes sense.
