Derek Jeter IS having a very unusual season…

Derek Jeter / USPRESSWIRE

Admist the allegations about Derek Jeter this morning, I thought I’d check just how unusual his late-career resurgence is.

There have been only 20 players since 1901 to post an OPS+ between 89 and 97 in their Age 36 and 37 seasons (combined, minimum 1000 plate appearances.) Derek Jeter, over 2010-2011, is the most recent:

Rk Player OPS+ PA From To R HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Pos Tm
1 Derek Jeter 93 1346 2010 2011 195 16 128 .282 .347 .378 .725 *6/D NYY
2 Garret Anderson 92 1127 2008 2009 118 28 145 .281 .315 .418 .733 *7/D LAA-ATL
3 Mark Grudzielanek 96 1072 2006 2007 155 13 103 .300 .338 .417 .754 *4/6 KCR
4 Jeromy Burnitz 89 1014 2005 2006 119 40 136 .248 .311 .430 .742 *9/8 CHC-PIT
5 Bernie Williams 90 1008 2005 2006 118 24 125 .264 .326 .399 .725 *8/9D7 NYY
6 Craig Biggio 92 1372 2002 2003 198 30 120 .259 .340 .408 .749 *84/7 HOU
7 Benito Santiago 90 1032 2001 2002 95 22 119 .270 .305 .409 .715 *2/3 SFG
8 Brady Anderson 89 1119 2000 2001 139 27 95 .232 .346 .365 .712 /897D BAL
9 Cal Ripken 91 1345 1997 1998 144 31 145 .271 .331 .396 .727 *5/6 BAL
10 Ryne Sandberg 91 1101 1996 1997 139 37 156 .253 .313 .426 .738 *4/D CHC
11 Robin Yount 97 1143 1992 1993 133 16 128 .261 .325 .385 .710 *8/D3 MIL
12 Dave Parker 96 1058 1987 1988 120 38 152 .255 .312 .422 .734 *9/D73 CIN-OAK
13 Bill Buckner 90 1179 1986 1987 112 23 176 .275 .312 .397 .709 *3/D BOS-TOT
14 Dave Kingman 97 1270 1985 1986 136 65 185 .225 .283 .424 .707 *D/3 OAK
15 Willie Horton 96 1080 1979 1980 109 37 142 .259 .319 .414 .733 *D SEA
16 Luis Aparicio 89 1157 1970 1971 142 9 88 .275 .331 .357 .687 *6 CHW-BOS
17 Al Dark 91 1117 1958 1959 121 10 93 .281 .339 .374 .713 *5/63 TOT-CHC
18 George Sisler 91 1154 1929 1930 121 5 146 .319 .357 .413 .770 *3 BSN
19 Jimmy Austin 93 1042 1916 1917 116 1 47 .224 .326 .298 .624 *5/6 SLB
20 George Stovall 89 1017 1914 1915 99 7 119 .257 .305 .341 .646 *3/5 KCP
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/23/2012.

Here’s what each of these guys did in their next season (Age 38):

Rk Player OPS+ Year Tm G PA R HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Cal Ripken 144 1999 BAL 86 354 51 18 57 .340 .368 .584 .952 *5
2 Derek Jeter 119 2012 NYY 122 561 78 13 43 .324 .364 .450 .815 *6D
3 Dave Parker 110 1989 OAK 144 600 56 22 97 .264 .308 .432 .741 *D/9
4 Jimmy Austin 109 1918 SLB 110 441 42 0 20 .264 .359 .324 .683 *65
5 Craig Biggio 105 2004 HOU 156 700 100 24 63 .281 .337 .469 .806 *78/D
6 Mark Grudzielanek 99 2008 KCR 86 360 36 3 24 .299 .345 .399 .743 *4
7 Benito Santiago 96 2003 SFG 108 434 53 11 56 .279 .329 .424 .753 *2
8 Luis Aparicio 88 1972 BOS 110 474 47 3 39 .257 .299 .351 .649 *6
9 Al Dark 87 1960 TOT 105 373 45 4 32 .265 .321 .351 .672 *573/4
10 Bill Buckner 73 1988 TOT 108 311 19 3 43 .249 .287 .330 .616 D3
11 Brady Anderson 59 2002 CLE 34 101 4 1 5 .163 .327 .250 .577 87/9D
12 Garret Anderson 29 2010 LAD 80 163 8 2 12 .181 .204 .271 .475 7/9
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/23/2012.

Ripken had his last great (or even good) season although he played only a little more than half a season. A few other guys were really good. And there there were the Anderson Twins–two supremely overrated players both coming in at the bottom. Of course, that’s better than the 8 other guys who didn’t even play at Age 38 (including Yount, Bernie Williams, and Horton.)

So what Jeter is doing this year is not unprecedented–just nearly unprecedented. 🙂

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John Autin
Editor
11 years ago

I hear that he drank unicorn blood.

‘Course, that’s just hearsay from the centaur who used to play next to him….

Matthew Glidden
11 years ago

Kingman’s 65 homers pop out from that list. Amazing to see his overall slugging % under guys who hit less than half that.

nightfly
11 years ago

The 65 dingers (and 185 rbi, both top of the table) do stand out, but I think you may have mixed columns. Kong is third on the list in slugging (.424) barely behind Ryne Sandberg and Jeromy Burnitz. He does, however, have the absolute lowest OBA on that list, and by a fair margin: .283, the only number lower than .300 (Stovall and Santiago check in at .305 each).

Mike L
Mike L
11 years ago

Oh, goodie. Jeter rumors. Can’t get more of a Melky match than Derek Jeter.

nightfly
11 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Seconded. I can’t stand the Jeter hagiography, but the man is a legitimately great player, certain HoF material, and people are getting worked up over him for… well, what exactly, I don’t know. It’s not like he suddenly hit forty homers this year. He’s always been a high-average guy with a lot of singles. Almost nothing he’s done this year seems out of line with his career profile, it’s just that the last two years his BABip was down (.307 and .336, and this year it’s back up to about where he usually is (.351 vs career of .355).

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago
Reply to  nightfly

Skip Bayless doesn’t count as people!

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
11 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

W-H-A-T allegations? Did Skip Bayless actually say that he suspected Jeter of using PEDs because of his resurgence this year?? If so, #6 and #13 have got it about right…

To paraphrase Bryce Harper, “That’s a clown statement, bro!”

Andrew
Andrew
11 years ago

Jeter’s season isn’t THAT markedly different from Parker or Biggio’s – these “allegations” aren’t anything more than Skip Bayless being a clown.

Hartvig
Hartvig
11 years ago
Reply to  Andrew

I think Biggio is a pretty good comp- his decline starting at 34 years old was even more pronounced that Jeter’s and he managed to come back and put up an OPS+ of over 100 in his 28th & 39th years. I suspect that if you were to expand the parameters a little bit and reduced the number of plate appearances to 800 it would be a whole lot less uncommon. It is sad though that when someone does something like this PED’s almost automatically come to mind. Still, Bayless was way off base for even mentioning it with ZERO… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
11 years ago

Seriously, there’s only one thing about Jeter that seems different to me this year, which is that he seems to be pulling a little more for power. Maybe he’s cheating a bit compared to the way he used to hit to compensate for slowing reflexes.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago

Here’s where Jeter is getting it done, and getting it done with power:

Vs lefties:

.378 .405 .598 1.002

as 1st batter of the game:

.393 .409 .607 1.016

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

He is clearly being more aggressive.

2012

SO%
11.6%

BB%
5.4%

Career

SO%
14.7%

BB%
8.7%

Brooklyn Mick
Brooklyn Mick
11 years ago

If Skip really wanted to sensationalize so he could trend on Twitter, he should have picked on one of the true good guys who is beyond reproach, like the other Cabrera who plays opposite in the infield from a Prince. Surely no one would believe that. Silly Skip.

Pat O'Dougherty
Pat O'Dougherty
11 years ago

Jeter is now one of ten yankees this season with 13 or more home runs. By season’s end it could easily be 10 with 15 or more home runs. I wonder if that’s the @min home run record for ten players on a team.(“@min” is what I call records dealing with the highest of the lowest)

Doug
Doug
11 years ago

The most players with 15 HR is 9, by the Rangers and Indians, both in 2005. The most by a Yankees team is 8, in 1998, 2000, 2004 and 2009.

This year’s 10 Yankees with 13 HRs is the most ever at that level (and it’s still August).

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

It’s also 10 Yankees each of whom has more HRs than the team total of triples, which is 11.

birtelcom
birtelcom
11 years ago

I’m not sure it’s quite fair to limit the comparables to guys who were hitting below average at ages 36-37. Hitting stats do jump around some from year to year, based on random noise, even for old guys. It is certainly not unprecedented for a guy who had an OPS+ around 121 through age 35 (that was Jeter’s career OPS+ through age 35) to squeeze out a year around his career level (or better) at age 38. Ron Cey and Darrell Evans put up OPS+ numbers of 138 at age 38. Ron Fairly had a 124 OPS+ year at age… Read more »

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago

Seems like a fair point. Until I saw Andy’s post, I didn’t really view Jeter’s season as unprecedented, and after thinking about it a bit more, I still don’t when viewed in the context of his entire career. Jeter’s greatest strength through his career was his seasonal, metronome-like consistency over the first fourteen years of his career. If not for his ’10 and ’11 seasons, we wouldn’t even be noticing Jeter right now because this season fits in perfectly fine with his overall body of work. His 119 OPS+ this season is right at his career average, and indeed as… Read more »

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

BTW My post was in response to birtelcom’s. Not sure why it didn’t nest under his.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Andy

Starting with the game of his 3000th hit Jeter accumulated 90 hits in 65 games. In his first 97 games of 2012 he accumulated 128 hits for a 162 game total of 218. These are only games in which he participated.

Pathetic
Pathetic
11 years ago

If you consider yourself a journalist, or want to be one, you better work a lot harder. Your analysis blows and this seems to be a pathetic attempt to piggyback off a ridiculous comment by a moron who provides “insight” for a company (ESPN) that constantly reminds everyone they are all about the ratings. I hope Derek Jeter and the Yankees seek some kind of liebel restitution in the form of people just shutting their damn mouths unless they have something to say worth hearing, not just trying to make a name for themself. You’re going to fall in the… Read more »

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago
Reply to  Pathetic

If you’re upset with Bayless’ comments, then take it to ESPN. Yes, you’re right. ESPN and Bayless were just stirring the pot, looking for more clicks, viewers and eyeballs. Bayless basically even said at the end of the interview he wasn’t being serious. This is a blog, and using ESPN as a jumping-off point to discuss Jeter’s fine season at age 38, and where he fits statistically is not only fair game, it’s what this blog is about. Before posting again, you might want to understand the difference between blogs and other outlets, and what this community is about. The… Read more »

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago
Reply to  Andy

True, I did notice he was referencing things not in your post, or even in the thread of notes, hence why I said go take it up with ESPN. Yet logically it seemed to be directed toward your post, but therein lies the problem. I was attempting to find logic in his note, where none existed.

I should have followed my initial instinct of not saying anything at all. I also considered it possible he was just trolling.

Nash Bruce
Nash Bruce
11 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

very good response, MikeD………

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Pathetic

Agree with the characterization of any accusation of PED use that is based solely on succesful performance and nothing else, especially when it is made on a forum of enormous influence such as ESPN. Such an acusation is totally irresponsible. But I would also point out that it is almost certainly NOT something that a major league ballplayer could win a lawsuit on under American law. MLB players are public figures under American defamation law and for public figures to win a lawsuit for defamation they have to prove not just that the claim was false but that the accuser… Read more »

Daniel Longmire
Daniel Longmire
11 years ago
Reply to  Andy

So this angry poster, who chooses to remain anonymous, uses his constitutionally enshrined right to free speech to endorse lawsuits that would coerce people to “shut their damn mouths.” Makes sense to me.

John Autin
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Pathetic

“What’s in a name?”

Hartvig
Hartvig
11 years ago
Reply to  Pathetic

Apparently a lot, at least in this case.

Bayless’ comments are inexcusable but as Andy has clearly shown, Jeter’s performance this season- based on historical precedents- is unusual.

And kudo’s to MikeD @ 18- your explanation puts a lot of things into perspective and goes a long way towards providing a reason for this unusual occurrence.

Jimbo
Jimbo
11 years ago

I mentioned this very early in the season, I never thought it would last.

Jeter has a very strong chance now of leading this season in hits, while also starting (and obviously ending) the season as the active hits leader. I believe we looked this up and nobody since Pete Rose had pulled it off.

Very impressive if he puts up his 8th career 200 hit season.

Doug
Doug
11 years ago
Reply to  Jimbo

Besides Rose (1981), only others to do it since 1901 are Stan Musial (1952) and Ty Cobb (1919).

bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  Jimbo

I do remember that discussion, Jimbo.

Jeter needs 31 hits in the Yankees’ last 38 games to reach 200. In his worst hitting month this year, June, Jeter batted .232 and still got 26 hits in 26 games played.

Barring injury, he looks like a pretty solid bet for 200 hits this year.

Doug
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Jeter needs 40 more hits for the most ever in an age 38 season. If he gets to 200, he’ll be the 4th to do so in an age 38 season, joining Rose, Jake Daubert and Sam Rice. Jeter needs only 13 more hits to best Honus Wagner for most hits by a 38 year-old shortstop.

Howard
Howard
11 years ago

Brady Anderson is “supremely overrated”? He did poorly in MVP voting even when he hit fifty HRs, was only named to three all-star teams, never won a gold glove and you hardly hear his name any more, at least outside of Baltimore. That’s not the resume of a supremely overrated player.

Howard
Howard
11 years ago
Reply to  Andy

Understood though I think because of that 50 HR season he is seen more as an underachiever for the rest of his career rather than overrated. For that one season he actually was about as good as the general perception public’s perception of him. No need to explain about Garret who I agree was supremely overrated.

John Nacca
John Nacca
11 years ago

Skip Bayless is only one reason….albeit the biggest one…….I do not watch ESPN what-so-ever. He himself negates at least 1000 decent people on network television….ALL network television, from announcers to color guys to “on course golf analysts” to camera operators to boom mike holders, etc.

Mark in Sydney
Mark in Sydney
11 years ago

Breaking news!

Have you checked Ichiro’s numbers since joining the Bombers? With Seattle he hit 1HR/100PA, with NY it is 1HR/30PA. Clearly there is something in the Kool-aid. It can be the only explanation.

Jimbo
Jimbo
11 years ago
Reply to  Mark in Sydney

Safeco field just kills power numbers. I’ve often felt that teams with parks like Safeco should only invest big bucks in pitchers. Hitters go to San Diego, Seattle, and San Francisco to die. Their numbers disappoint them, they press, etc.

Those teams should invest heavily in pitching, and fill up on cheap speedy players like Juan Pierre, Rajai Davis, etc.

Conversely, lefties like Curtis Granderson thrive in the new Yankee Stadium. Ichiro’s home runs should have surprised nobody.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
11 years ago
Reply to  Mark in Sydney

I think Ichiro’s HRs as a Yankee have more to do with that jetstream from home plate to the short porch in right field.

Nash Bruce
Nash Bruce
11 years ago

Sooooo……..altho, often times, this has no basis in reality(as we all know), any over/under on the amount of MVP support/votes that Jeter gets this year??

Tmckelv
Tmckelv
11 years ago
Reply to  Nash Bruce

If he keeps up his August numbers the rest of the season he might get a top 10 finish, but he won’t come close to winning. Especially if the Yanks don’t win the division.

He lost out in 2006 and 2009 when I felt he had real chances of winning the MVP.
2006 – 2nd place – he had 5.4 WAR (Morneau 4.0)
2009 – 3rd place – he had 6.4 WAR (Mauer 7.6, Teixeira 5.1).

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