Miggy, Henry & the Judge

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Miguel Cabrera is in his 10th season. Just for fun, I compared his 10-year totals (projecting his 2012 rates to a full season) with those of Henry Aaron, who also debuted at age 20. Before you finish that derisive snort, let me state clearly that Aaron was without question:

a better hitter than Cabrera (8 points of OPS+ is significant);
a much better baserunner; and
a far more valuable player, considering defense.

That said, their hitting totals are still interesting:

Henry Aaron & Miguel Cabrera: 10-year totals*

Year	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	IBB
1954	20	122	509	468	58	131	27	6	13	69	2	2	28	39	.280	.322	.447	.769	104	209	13	3
1955	21	153	665	602	105	189	37	9	27	106	3	1	49	61	.314	.366	.540	.906	141	325	20	3	5
1956	22	153	660	609	106	*200*	34	14	26	92	2	4	37	54	.328	.365	.558	.923	151	340	21	2	6
1957	23	151	675	615	118	198	27	6	44	*132*	1	1	57	58	.322	.378	.600	.978	166	*369*	13	0	15
1958	24	153	664	601	109	196	34	4	30	95	4	1	59	49	.326	.386	.546	.931	152	328	21	1	16
1959	25	154	693	629	116	*223*	46	7	39	123	8	0	51	54	*.355*	.401	*.636*	*1.037*	*182*	*400*	19	4	17
1960	26	153	664	590	102	172	20	11	40	*126*	16	7	60	63	.292	.352	.566	.919	156	*334*	8	2	13
1961	27	155	671	603	115	197	39	10	34	120	21	9	56	64	.327	.381	.594	.974	163	358	16	2	20
1962	28	156	667	592	127	191	28	6	45	128	15	7	66	73	.323	.390	.618	1.008	170	366	14	3	14
1963	29	161	714	631	*121*	201	29	4	44	*130*	31	5	78	94	.319	.391	*.586*	*.977*	*179*	*370*	11	0	18
HA: 10 Yrs		1511	6582	5940	1077	1898	321	77	342	1121	103	37	541	609	.320	.375	.572	.947	158	3399	156	20	154
Year	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	IBB
MC: 10 Yrs*		1513	6491	5683	960	1804	388	13	319	1123	35	18	707	1099	.317	.394	.558	.952	150	3177	197	42	159
2003	20	87	346	314	39	84	21	3	12	62	0	2	25	84	.268	.325	.468	.793	106	147	12	2	3
2004	21	160	685	603	101	177	31	1	33	112	5	2	68	148	.294	.366	.512	.879	130	309	20	6	5
2005	22	158	685	613	106	198	43	2	33	116	1	0	64	125	.323	.385	.561	.947	151	344	20	2	12
2006	23	158	676	576	112	195	50	2	26	114	9	6	86	108	.339	.430	.568	.998	159	327	18	10	27
2007	24	157	680	588	91	188	38	2	34	119	2	1	79	127	.320	.401	.565	.965	150	332	17	5	23
2008	25	160	684	616	85	180	36	2	37	127	1	0	56	126	.292	.349	.537	.887	130	331	16	3	6
2009	26	160	685	611	96	198	34	0	34	103	6	2	68	107	.324	.396	.547	.942	144	334	22	5	14
2010	27	150	648	548	111	180	45	1	38	*126*	3	3	89	95	.328	.420	.622	1.042	*178*	341	17	3	32
2011	28	161	688	572	111	197	48	0	30	105	2	1	108	89	*.344*	*.448*	.586	1.033	179	335	24	3	22
2012	29	111	489	440	74	142	29	0	29	95	4	1	44	62	.323	.384	.586	.971	158	*258*	21	2	10
2012*	29	162	714	642	108	207	42	0	42	*139*	6	1	64	90	.323	.384	.586	.971	158	*377*	31	3	15
MC: 10 Yrs		1462	6266	5481	926	1739	375	13	306	1079	33	18	687	1071	.317	.394	.558	.952	150	3058	187	41	154

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com / Generated 8/9/2012.

* For the purpose of this comparison, I projected Cabrera’s 2012 rates over a full season. Both the actual and the projected numbers for 2012 are shown on separate lines in the table. The first totals for MC: 10 Yrs* (in the middle of the table, below Aaron’s totals) feature the 2012 projections; those on the bottom (MC: 10 Yrs, no asterisk) are Cabrera’s actual totals.

I considered also projecting Cabrera’s rookie stats to the same 122 games as played by the rookie Aaron, since Cabrera didn’t come up until almost half the year was gone, while Aaron started Opening Day. But the difference in rookie games is offset by Aaron’s 154-game schedule in 8 of the 10 years covered. The bigger point is that both played almost every game.

The main difference between their offensive packages was Aaron’s speed, shown by his edge in 3Bs, SB and Runs.

I’m surprised that Cabrera’s (projected) HR total is that close to Aaron’s, since Henry already had four 40-HR seasons, while Cabrera’s only such year is his projected 42 for this season.

By the way, I may have missed it, but I didn’t notice any fuss over Cabrera reaching 3,000 Total Bases on July 15. He’s the 11th player to get there by age 29, currently ranking 10th in that group, but he’ll pass Rogers Hornsby and Frank Robinson any day now to wind up 8th on the age-29 list by year’s end (and 6th or 7th for Total Bases in the first 10 years).

Speaking of Robinson, he’s #1 on Cabrera’s list of Similarity Scores through age 28 (score of 924; Aaron is #2 at 910). Here’s the Robinson/Cabrera comparison, in the same format as before:

Frank Robinson & Miguel Cabrera: 10-year totals

Year	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	IBB
1956	20	152	667	572	122	166	27	6	38	83	8	4	64	95	.290	.379	.558	.936	143	319	14	20	7
1957	21	150	677	611	97	197	29	5	29	75	10	2	44	92	.322	.376	.529	.905	135	323	13	12	5
1958	22	148	623	554	90	149	25	6	31	83	10	1	62	80	.269	.350	.504	.854	118	279	13	7	5
1959	23	146	626	540	106	168	31	4	36	125	18	8	69	93	.311	.391	.583	.975	153	315	16	8	9
1960	24	139	562	464	86	138	33	6	31	83	13	6	82	67	.297	.407	*.595*	*1.002*	*169*	276	18	9	6
1961	25	153	635	545	117	176	32	7	37	124	22	3	71	64	.323	.404	.611	1.015	164	333	15	10	23
1962	26	162	701	609	*134*	208	51	2	39	136	18	9	76	62	.342	.421	*.624*	1.045	172	380	13	11	16
1963	27	140	581	482	79	125	19	3	21	91	26	10	81	69	.259	.379	.442	.821	133	213	7	14	20
1964	28	156	662	568	103	174	38	6	29	96	23	5	79	67	.306	.396	.548	.943	160	311	13	9	20
1965	29	156	674	582	109	172	33	5	33	113	13	9	70	100	.296	.386	.540	.925	151	314	14	18	18
FR: 10 Yrs		1502	6408	5527	1043	1673	318	50	324	1009	161	57	698	789	.303	.389	.554	.943	150	3063	136	118	129
Year	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	IBB
MC: 10 Yrs*		1513	6491	5683	960	1804	388	13	319	1123	35	18	707	1099	.317	.394	.558	.952	150	3177	197	42	159
2003	20	87	346	314	39	84	21	3	12	62	0	2	25	84	.268	.325	.468	.793	106	147	12	2	3
2004	21	160	685	603	101	177	31	1	33	112	5	2	68	148	.294	.366	.512	.879	130	309	20	6	5
2005	22	158	685	613	106	198	43	2	33	116	1	0	64	125	.323	.385	.561	.947	151	344	20	2	12
2006	23	158	676	576	112	195	50	2	26	114	9	6	86	108	.339	.430	.568	.998	159	327	18	10	27
2007	24	157	680	588	91	188	38	2	34	119	2	1	79	127	.320	.401	.565	.965	150	332	17	5	23
2008	25	160	684	616	85	180	36	2	37	127	1	0	56	126	.292	.349	.537	.887	130	331	16	3	6
2009	26	160	685	611	96	198	34	0	34	103	6	2	68	107	.324	.396	.547	.942	144	334	22	5	14
2010	27	150	648	548	111	180	45	1	38	*126*	3	3	89	95	.328	.420	.622	1.042	*178*	341	17	3	32
2011	28	161	688	572	111	197	48	0	30	105	2	1	108	89	*.344*	*.448*	.586	1.033	179	335	24	3	22
2012	29	111	489	440	74	142	29	0	29	95	4	1	44	62	.323	.384	.586	.971	158	*258*	21	2	10
2012*	29	162	714	642	108	207	42	0	42	*139*	6	1	64	90	.323	.384	.586	.971	158	*377*	31	3	15
MC: 10 Yrs		1462	6266	5481	926	1739	375	13	306	1079	33	18	687	1071	.317	.394	.558	.952	150	3058	187	41	154

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com / Generated 8/9/2012.

* See footnote for previous table.

I’ll show one more comparison in abbreviated form: Here are Mel Ott‘s totals through his 10th full season (i.e., through age 28), and Cabrera’s 10-year totals (again with the 2012 projections):

		G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	IBB
Ott: 10 Yrs*		1589	6646	5621	1131	1775	313	55	306	1190	58	?	917	469	.316	.415	.554	.969	155	3116	?	32	?
MC: 10 Yrs*		1513	6491	5683	960	1804	388	13	319	1123	35	18	707	1099	.317	.394	.558	.952	150	3177	197	42	159

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com / Generated 8/9/2012.

Ott’s similarity score to Cabrera through age 28 is just 862, partly because his earlier start gave him some 230 more games than Cabrera at the same age. But using the “first 10 full years” standard, Ott may actually be the best comparison to Cabrera, considering not only their totals, but also the range of season HR and BA marks for both players in the covered years:

BA highs — Ott’s three best were .349, .328 and .328; Cabrera’s are .344, .339 and .328.
BA lows — Ott’s three worst were .283, .292 and .294; Cabrera’s are .268 (rookie half-year), .292 and .294.
HR highs — Ott 42, 38, 35; Cabrera 42 (projected), 38, 37.
HR lows — Ott 18, 23, 25; Cabrera 12 (rookie half-year), 26, 29.

Are there other past or present hitters whom you find similar to Miguel Cabrera, either statistically or visually?

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Doug

11 years ago

Here are a couple of 3rd basemen.

Rk	Player	HR	OPS+	WAR/pos	PA	From	To	Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Eddie Mathews	370	154	65.5	6481	1952	1961	20-29	1482	5466	1032	1548	223	55	992	930	886	55	26	.283	.387	.547	.934
2	Mike Schmidt	314	149	65.0	5592	1972	1981	22-31	1336	4615	856	1216	227	41	878	851	1148	141	63	.263	.380	.535	.914

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/9/2012.

Brooklyn Mick

11 years ago

Reply to Doug

It’s hard to believe that Eddie Mathews had to wait until his fifth year of eligibility to get voted into the Hall. The luster of the 500 homer plateau is diminished these days due to the steroid era, hitter friendly parks, etc. But when Matthews stroked number 500 he was only the seventh player in history to accomplish the feat, and the first full-time third baseman to do so.

Doug

11 years ago

Reply to Brooklyn Mick

The other interesting thing about Mathew’s no. 500 was that it was in a game against the Giants on 7-14-67. With Mays and Mathews together, it was only the second time with two 500 HR players appearing. It would be the only game with Mays and Mathews appearing before Mathews went to Detroit a month later. In Detroit, Mathews would make a 3rd time for this peculiarity, appearing with Mantle on 9-25-67. Incidentally, the first time was Mel Ott and Jimmie Foxx on 8-5-45.

Brooklyn Mick

11 years ago

Reply to Doug

Interesting indeed. Also, Matthew’s #500 was off Juan Maricial. I wonder how many players hit #500 off a Hall of Famer?

Brooklyn Mick

11 years ago

Reply to Brooklyn Mick

I spoke too soon…Eddie Matthews stands alone as the only player to ever hit home run #500 off a Hall of Fame pitcher.
http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/hi500c.shtml

Brooklyn Mick

11 years ago

Interesting comparisons. The first name that popped into my head concerning other similar players is Frank Thomas. Is it possible to do a comparison chart?

Editor

Doug

11 years ago

Reply to Brooklyn Mick

Here is Thomas.

Rk	Player	HR	OPS+	WAR/pos	From	To	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Frank Thomas	301	169	50.6	1990	1999	22-31	1371	6092	4892	968	1564	317	10	1040	1076	741	28	18	.320	.440	.573	1.013

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/9/2012.

Brooklyn Mick

11 years ago

Reply to Doug

Thank you Doug.

Author

John Autin

11 years ago

Reply to Brooklyn Mick

I haven’t quite mastered tables in comments, but let’s see what I can do: 10 Yr G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP IBB Cabrera 1462 6266 5481 926 1739 375 13 306 1079 33 18 687 1071 .317 .394 .558 .952 150 3058 187 41 154 Thomas 1371 6092 4892 968 1564 317 10 301 1040 28 18 1076 741 .320 .440 .573 1.013 169 2804 152 41 133 Manny 1535 6575 5572 1067 1760 381 14 390 1270 33 30 874 1230 .316 .411… Read more »

Brooklyn Mick

11 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Thank you John. What intrigues me about the comparison between Miggy and Hurt is obviously their respective physical statures. When you suggested a visual comparison I took it literally. They were/are both huge right handed power hitters with power to all fields who hit for a high average, drive in runs by the bushel, have high OBP’s, are slow footed, and limited defensively.

Jim Bouldin

11 years ago

Reply to Brooklyn Mick

He’s not Brooks Robinson, but he is better defensively than people give him credit for. He has a rifle of an arm for one thing, and accurate as well.

Hartvig

11 years ago

I’m surprised that Albert Belle doesn’t rank as a better comp to Cabrera. He did get a later start and his first 2 partial seasons skew the averages a lot if your looking at per season instead of per 162 games but over Belle’s 10 full seasons the numbers are pretty similar (although as with Cabrera and Aaron, not QUITE as good). In reality, when I was growing up Aaron was never considered to be quite in the same class as Mantle or Mays, at least until the Braves moved to Atlanta and Aaron continued to put up similar numbers… Read more »

Chad

11 years ago

As with JA’s disclaimer, I realize that Cabrera is not as good as Pujols. I’m not saying he is. However, Pujols is the guy that most reminds me of Cabrera. Cabrera is pretty close to one of the 10 best right-handed hitters of all-time (at this point in time), but has been overshadowed by the other-worldly career that Pujols has had. Others: ARod had much better power numbers through his first 10 full seasons, but his OPS+ was 149, or 1 point lower than Miggy. Manny Ramirez also comes to mind. His OPS+ for his first 10 seasons of 100+… Read more »

Author

John Autin

11 years ago

Using some totally arbitrary cutoffs, I’m about to post a table of everyone from 1985-present who had 900+ RBI and a 140+ OPS+ within their first 10 years (I seem to be limited to 15 table rows in a comment): Rk Player OPS+ RBI Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR BB IBB SO HBP GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS 1 Albert Pujols 172 1230 21-30 1558 6782 5733 1186 1900 426 15 408 914 236 646 73 203 75 34 .331 .426 .624 1.050 2 Frank Thomas 169 1040 22-31 1371 6092 4892 968 1564… Read more »

11 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Can you do a table for players who started (?) their careers from 1960 to 1984? Just to see what the numbers look like?

Also, I’m not a Pujols fan, but that table makes a big statement.

Paul E

11 years ago

Reply to PP

PP:
I believe the highest OPS+ for that period would go to Dick Allen @ 164 over Frank Robinson @ 159 and a bunch of other Hall of Famers

Richard Chester

11 years ago

Reply to PP

If you consider just the player’s first 10 years during that time period Eddie Murray is the only one who makes the list with OPS+ = 143 and 1015 RBIs.

Jim Bouldin

11 years ago

Reply to John Autin

So…what exactly is the trick to formatting tables in comments? Still stumped by that. Thanks

Doug

11 years ago

Reply to Jim Bouldin

You create the table somewhere else, and save in HTML format. Then copy the HTML code directly into your comment.

Jim Bouldin

11 years ago

Reply to Doug

Ah!
Thanks Doug.

wilsonm24

11 years ago

Reply to John Autin

It will be real interesting to look at Cabrera after next season and compare 21-30 age seasons.

His first year half season numbers are dropping him quite a bit in these charts, especially when you look at OPS+ (his was 106). It won’t get him up their with Pujols or Thomas, but he will probably jump over everyone else on this list.

Will probably also move him up on most of the counting stats as well.

bstar

11 years ago

What Miggy, The Hammer, and The Judge really have in common is that peak value is not their most important attribute; consistency is.

The history of MLB is littered with players who can be really good/great for for four or five years but don’t have the consistency to pull it off year after year after year. This is one thing that separates the great careers from the very good.

For some reason, consistency has begun to take a backseat to peak value, but I think the former is a much rarer accomplishment.

Author

John Autin

11 years ago

Reply to bstar

Bingo! You’ve spotted my hidden subtext, b.

MikeD

11 years ago

Reply to bstar

bstar, I’m not quite sure consistency has taken a backseat to peak value, although I understand what you mean. In the cases of players like Aaron and Cabrera, what makes them great is their consistency, but it’s also consistency at a high level to the point where it’s all peak. What is their peak? Of course, in the case of Miggy, the real test of greatness is still to come. It’s maintaining an elite level of performance well into his 30s. The great compilers (and, yes, uber-great players are also compilers) have that extra kick. Aaron didn’t fade when many… Read more »

bstar

11 years ago

Reply to MikeD

“What is their peak?” Well, in terms that relate to my statement about peak value, it means a player’s five best years, or seven, or whatever. I’m sure you know that. But in Aaron and Miggy’s and Stan Musial’s cases, as you also point out, there isn’t much distinction between their greatest years and their other seasons. Ignoring this almost entirely, many authors/writers/fans/bloggers have placed higher value on a player’s best years instead of overall production over the length of one’s career. So players like Cabrera/Aaron/Musial have their entire careers slightly devalued for that reason, and I don’t agree with… Read more »

MikeD

11 years ago

Reply to bstar

Agreed. When I asked “what is their peak?” it was almost rhetorical. For a player like Aaron, it’s almost all peak up until age finally does become a problem. This can be applied to other elite players at different positions, starting pitchers, even at least one reliever. If I look a Mariano Rivera, I would ask the same rhetorical question: What is his peak? The answer is it’s pretty much all peak. Regarding Miggy, yes he would have to increase his HR rate, yet that illustrates the difficulty in trying to predict what any player will do as he ages.… Read more »

Author

John Autin

11 years ago

Reply to MikeD

“he’ll have to take his conditioning more seriously. He’s still at the age where it’s coming easy.” Probably a reasonable statement, Mike, but I just don’t know enough about his work habits. Obviously, he carries some body fat; at the same time, he plays virtually every game — hasn’t missed one this year, and averaged 158 in the prior 8 years; only Ripken (+28), Santo (+17) and Ichiro (+5) played more games in their 2nd through 9th years. So I’ve got to think he’s taking *some* active role in his maintenance. I suppose he’s bound to hit the DL one… Read more »

MikeD

11 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Yes, I was referring to what appears to be a little extra body weight and then attempting to extrapolate on what that will mean in his 30s. There is also the question of his extra curricular activities. Hopefully he has that part of his life under control. It doesn’t get easier, it gets more difficult as a player ages. That said, his ability to play pretty much every day does mean something. Health is a skill. I’d place my bet on the guy who is a little pudgy but has the track record of playing daily than the guy who… Read more »

Author

John Autin

11 years ago

Reply to MikeD

It is kind of funny seeing the chubsters Fielder and Cabrera on opposite corners and realizing that they rank #1 and #4 in games played since 2006.

You can’t help thinking that the weight will take a toll, especially on Fielder — but so far, there’s just no sign of it.

BryanM

11 years ago

The Henry-Miggy comparison above is fascinating; Henry’s 103/37 SB/CS line would be interpreted by many as essentially break-even in the baserunning department; but as is rightly pointed out above, Aaron was an excellent baserunner, as evidenced by his over 100 run advantage in the (projected ) runs scored department, with fewer times on base , and a slightly worse offensive context. Just another reason to pay a bit more attention to RS as an indicator of a player’s contribution to his team , effort and intelligence in base running is an underappreciated value in the stats community, I believe.

Author

John Autin

11 years ago

Reply to BryanM

“… and a slightly worse offensive context.” Bryan, I’m glad you said “slightly.” Their respective “Air” ratings would suggest that Aaron’s offensive context was significantly worse, 97 to 105 for the years covered. But “Air” covers only leagues & parks, not teams. And the teams Aaron played for in his first 10 years scored a bit more, relative to their leagues, than Cabrera’s teams. Thus, Cabrera’s teams, though generally situated in a much higher offensive context than Aaron’s, averaged only 2.6% more runs per game than Aaron’s teams (4.69 to 4.57) for their first 10 years, which is a much… Read more »

BryanM

11 years ago

Reply to John Autin

John , thanks for that , I wasn’t certain it was that close, and of course part of Henry’s RS advantage comes from better power (more HR and 3B ) but can’t miss a chance to push for RS as a “team player” stat – some guys think their job’s done when they reach base , others are just too slow to help, but a winner keeps his intensity on the bases.. look at Albert vs , Belle, Manny and Piazza in the “r” column in your @11 above…..

Author

John Autin

11 years ago

Reply to BryanM

Bryan, it’s not quite fair to lump a catcher into that RS comparison, but I’m 100% behind your general point.

BryanM

11 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Agreed — no implied disrespect to Piazza — Catchers are the hardest players to evaluate against other position players – so much of their job, if done well, shows up in pitcher’s stats – over a long career, maybe WL% would be meaningful.

deal

11 years ago

While looking at Cabrera’s page I noticed his ELO Rank is only 3 higher then Chase Utley’s (158 v 161). Yet if you look at Cabrera’s top 10 compares for his current age he has 6 HoFs and they are big time HoF members Aaron, F Robinson, Mantle.

While Utley only has one HoF in his matches and that is Joe Gordon.

Utley is further into his career age wise, but has less career experience because of college and injuries.

Author

John Autin

11 years ago

Reply to deal

deal, I wouldn’t try to make HOF judgments from similarity scores. First, they completely ignore defensive value. Second, they’re built entirely on raw stats, with no context adjustment. Third, every player gets 10 entries for each list, whether they’re actually similar or not. What matters are the scores. Utley and Cabrera are both unusual players, as reflected in their similarity scores through their current age; for each, only 2 score at 900+. For Utley, those are HOFer Joe Gordon and likely HOFer Jeff Kent, who is not yet eligible. Gordon had a fairly short career and lost 2 prime years… Read more »

11 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Unfortunately lots of people do just that! (i.e., make HOF judgments based on similarity scores).

Another issue…several of Utley’s comps are outfielders and third basemen which obviously muddies the water.

Anyway, I have a hard time seeing Utley making the HOF. I have a feeling he’ll slip through the cracks a la Trammell, Whitaker, Grich, etc. His performance in MVP voting is stunningly poor given his overall contribution to the Phillies recent success particularly vis a vis a certain Mr. Howard.

Lawrence Azrin

11 years ago

Reply to Ed

From 2005 to 2010, Utley was probably the second best player in MLB, behind only Albert Pujols. I say that not strictly based on WAR, but because: you’ve got here an excellent defensive second baseman who is one of the best hitters in the NL that period, and also an outstanding baserunner, on an excellent team. I agree with you both in the MVP voting and his HOF chances. It should’ve been _him_ , and not his Phillies team mates Howard or Rollins who won an MVP. From 2006-2009 he was 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd in NL WAR, but only… Read more »

11 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

The ’07-’09 MVP voting for Utley and Howard are so comically bad it’s hard to know how to respond. Here are their OPS+ for each of the three years: 2007 Howard 144 Utley 146 2008 Howard 125 Utley 136 2009 Howard 141 Utley 137 So we have: 1) A second baseman hitting at the same level as a first baseman. 2)They’re teammates so that washes out. 3) Utley’s a far better baserunner. 4) Utley plays a more important defensive position and plays it well. Howard plays a far less important position and doesn’t play it well. And yet here’s how… Read more »

deal

11 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

This rarely gets mentioned and I am not sure if it is covered at all Nationally, but Utley isn’t real reporter friendly. May be a factor in the MVP voting.

MikeD

11 years ago

Reply to Ed

…and there is certainly some correlation between MVP voting and HOF voting. Gordon was league MVP one year (’42), finished in the top ten five times, and received MVP votes in nine of his elevens seasons. The only years he didn’t were his final season, and his first year back from the war when a spectacular string of injuries (perhaps caused by rust and being away from the game for two years) limited his performance, ultimately leading to his trade to the Indians. Gordon was a 25-30 HR-hitting second baseman and an elite defender, a player who would fit in… Read more »

11 years ago

As if on cue, we have Jim Leyland coming out today and saying that Cabrera deserves the MVP over Trout because Cabrera’s been around longer and has a better track record. Gah!!! Earth to Jim Leyland, come in Jim Leyland! It’s the MVP award. For this season!!!!!!!!! It’s not a freaking career award and what someone has or hasn’t done in prior seasons should have 0 impact. Period! I hereby nominate Jim Leyland for stupid person of the day.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8252517/detroit-tigers-jim-leyland-miguel-cabrera-deserves-mvp-mike-trout

Max

11 years ago

Reply to Ed

If supporting one of his stars (over an opponent) makes Jim Leyland the stupid person of the day, I’m sure he’d be fine with that.

He’s a manager, not a commentator. He’s not supposed to be impartial.

Author

John Autin

11 years ago

Reply to Max

But he can support his player and still speak rationally. I haven’t read the remarks, but what Ed describes is silly, indeed.

Lawrence Azrin

11 years ago

Reply to Ed

Lighten up a bit – Leyland is just doing his job, which is to stick up for his player. Also, Cabrera has played more games (112/89), which is not insignificant. If Trout continues to play well, but comes down to earth from his 182 OPS+, and Cabrera just maintains his current pace of 156 OPS+ (which isn’t much better than his career 150 OPS+), it could be a lot closer than it looks now. I agree that Trout is the MVP now, but there’s still about 50 games to go, and Cabrera has a vastly longer established record of excellence… Read more »

11 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Lawrence and Max – I didn’t say that Cabrera couldn’t/shouldn’t/wouldn’t win the MVP. Nor did I say that Leyland shouldn’t support his players. However, Leyland’s reasoning IS stupid. One can make plenty of legitimate arguments re: for Cabrera for MVP. Leyland’s isn’t one of them.

rea

11 years ago

Reply to Ed

Leyland’s point was that the tendency of journalists to get carried away with their narrative gives somebody like Trout the Amazing Rookie an advantage in MVP voting over someone like Cabrera, who has been performing at this level for 10 years. If you had to bet on which one is more likely to maintain his present level of performance for the rest of the season, you’d have to go with Cabrera, due to his track record.

Author

John Autin

11 years ago

Reply to rea

With all due respect, I have never seen a rookie win an MVP or outpoint a veteran based on such a narrative. If that were a real factor, Fernando Valenzuela would surely have won the ’81 MVP instead of Mike Schmidt. I do believe there *are* certain established storylines that have often affected the MVP vote. One such is “easiest explanation for a team’s unexpected success,” and I believe *that* (and not the hypothetical “amazing rookie” angle) was what carried the day for Ichiro in 2001. And as far as “which one is more likely to maintain his present level… Read more »

Mike Felber

11 years ago

Right, it is against the latter & spirit of the award to make it anything but performance for the year & question. It is not a career achievement award, even in part.

Richard Chester

11 years ago

Reply to Mike Felber

I have a vague memory of reading somewhere that Charley Gehringer’s 1937 award was partially motivated by recognition of his accomplishments for prior years. In his 5 previous years he finished in the top ten every year but could not quite reach the top spot. Many people thought that DiMaggio and Greenberg had better years.

no statistician but

11 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

RC:

Don’t forget Lou Gehrig. His stats were about the same overall as Greenberg’s and DiMaggio’s. So you have three sluggers all very close and one middle infielder who won the batting title and may have performed more impressively in the eyes of the voters. Gehringer got 75% of the first place votes, DiMaggio, 25%. Greenberg and Gehrig already had MVP awards, too, and that sometimes sways voters when performance levels are nearly equal: give it one of the guys who hasn’t won it before.

Richard Chester

11 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

Thanks for mentioning Gehrig. I scrolled through the MVP voting for that award and Gehringer, DiMaggio, Greenberg and Gehrig were the top 4 in the MVP voting. What was strange was the fifth place finish. Bill Dickey and Luke Sewell tied for that position, but the differences in their stats were amazing. Next to Dickey Sewell looked like a minor-leaguer. Take a peek.

no statistician but

11 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

1) Luke Sewell and Rick Ferrell— contemporaries, catchers, brothers of much better players, somehow the sportswriters were charmed by them.

2) Sewell was about the fourth best player on his own team that year, not including pitchers. Call it charisma.

e pluribus munu

11 years ago

Reply to Mike Felber

It happens. Apart from Richard’s point about Gehringer, Willie Stargell’s 1979 MVP (or share of it) was recognized at the time as a lifetime achievement award, voted in recognition of past near misses. Any award vote opens the door for sentiment, and I’m not sure that’s actually against the spirit of the MVP, at least in close cases (1979 was not even close, and would have been more problematic had the tie not allowed a legitimate contender to share it). It depends whose spirit you take to be definitive.

Mike Felber

11 years ago

The spirit I take to be definitive is who adds the most value, with none of the nonsense about favoring guys who happen to be on a team good enough for them to make the post season. You should neither suffer for being on a mediocre or worse team, nor be denied because you won however many times before. Mays, Musial, Mantle should have won a lot more. If it is so close you honestly cannot tell who deserves it, OK< give it to the new guy. If the awards are to be respected maximally as achievement based, give 'em… Read more »