Four more games today, including two winner-take-all contests.
The early game is in the books, with the Giants completing their comeback from 0-2, the first team to do so with three straight away wins in a 5-game series.
Washington survived with a walk-off win (the third in less than 24 hours) on a Jayson Werth homer, to pull even with the defending champion Cardinals and force a deciding game tomorrow.
Tell us what’s caught your attention today!
Congratulations to the Giants for pulling it off. Buster Posey, one man wrecking crew, comes up enormous. I don’t know that there’s a bigger single hit in Giants history. Of course, it has to be remembered that the Reds lost Cueto, a big loss indeed. My attention is on the Tigers-A’s game and how Leyland handles the late innings. It’s fair to assume that Verlander will go through 7, but then what? If the Tigers are holding a narrow lead, is Leyland going to Benoit and Valverde? Will he use Coke against a lefty? Or Smyly? Should be very interesting.… Read more »
Previous Grand Slams in “Sudden Death” (final game of the series, regardless of which team wins) Post-Season Games: Bill “Moose” Skowron, 7th inning, Game 7, 1956 World Series (Yanks were already ahead of Brooklyn 5-0) Troy O’Leary, 3rd inning, Game 5, 1999 ALDS (moved Boston from two runs behind Cleveland to two runs ahead, and he followed that with a three-run homer in the 7th to break a tie) Johnny Damon, 2nd inning, Game 7, 2004 (Red Sox were already ahead of the Yankees 2-0, and Damon followed with a two-run shot in the fourth inning to put Boston up… Read more »
Right, but as Jim Leyland has said, “momentum is only as good as the next game’s pitcher”. The Giants couldn’t do anything with the bats in the first three games. The Reds being forced to bring in Leake in game 4 was a huge break for SF. It’s disingenuous to suggest Cueto’s injury wasn’t a factor.
The longest 2012 regular-season AB ending in a walk-off HR was 9 pitches, Ryan Ludwick, 7/14.
Last 13-pitch walk-off HR was in 1997 by Garret Anderson(!):
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ANA/ANA199709150.shtml
OK, I just realized where the Postseason Event Finder is… We only have pitch counts for 32 postseason walk-off HRs before today. The longest of those was 9 by Jeter on Halloween 2001, WS game 4:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA200110310.shtml
And of the 126 prior postseason game-ending RBIs with known pitch counts, the longest was 10 by Big Papi, 2004 ALCS game 5:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS200410180.shtml
Ed, I would have thought so, too. But there have been 61 postseason games with a higher average of pitches per batter.
Here’s the known leader — 4.94 pitches per batter (178 pitches, 36 batters, regulation 2-0 game):
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA200010100.shtml
Fittingly, amongst recent events, Raul Ibanez replaced an HOFer in that game – this time, playing against the Yankees. (6th inning is too early for a defensive replacement – I guess Rickey must have been injured?)
Six of the Mariners who played in that game later went on to play for the Yankees, and two (you know who they are) had played with the Yankees previously.
Actually, it’s a mere 42% — 566 postseason games from 1995-2012, 781 from 1903-93.
Bear in mind, the span of seasons is 90 for 1903-93 (none in 1904) and not quite 18 for the current era.
At the current pace of 34 games per year,* the 3-round era will cross the 50% threshold around 2018.
Fangraphs has Darren O’Day’s outing at 0.557 WPA. He went 2.2 IP, no runs scored despite inheriting the tying run on 3rd with 1 out.
That would be the 10th-best postseason relief WPA among searchable games. (Note that B-R’s WPA numbers sometimes vary a little from FG.)
O’Day this postseason has faced 23 batters, getting 21 outs with 1 single and 1 walk, while stranding all 5 inherited runners.
Yes, Peralta’s 10 SB in over 5,000 PAs is a low total for any position.
Out of 836 players with 5,000+ PAs since 1901, only 34 have averaged less than 1 SB per 500 PAs. There are 3 middle infielders in that group: Peralta, Rico Petrocelli and Dick Groat.
I don’t know about any leg injuries. His minor-league record also shows no propensity to steal.
I see that A-Rod was also pinch-hit for during the regular season, in game 160 by a guy named Melky Mesa, in the first AB of Mesa’s career (he got a hit and an RBI). Andruw Jones also pinch-hit for A-Rod in 2011. But, the Yankees were leading 9-2 and 11-0 in those two games. Rodriguez was pinch-hit for in 3 consecutive games in his rookie season, specifically July 28-29-30, 1994, each time in a close game, and then was sent back to the minors. In 2008 (June 25th & 27th) and 2009 (Aug 21-22), he was pinch-hit for in… Read more »
They were the last team I wanted to face in the first round of the playoffs and while I grossly underestimated them at the beginning of the season and kept expecting the wheels to come off almost up until the final week of the season I was pulling as hard for them to win in the west as I was for the Orioles to win in the east. If the Cy Young voting in the American League were conducted today, it’s hard to imagine that Verlander would not win it. I think he deserves it even without his post-season performance… Read more »
In their 20 post-season starts this year, AL starting pitchers have a collective ERA of 2.17 and a WHIP OF 0.98; hitters have a slash line against them of .216 BA/.268 OBP/.294 SLG/.562 OPS. That slash line for the hitters of the AL playoff teams against the AL’s starters is almost a perfect match to the sub-replacement level career hitting stats of Cubs backup catcher Koyie Hill.
Over the past 40 years, regular and post-season, there had been exactly one previous instance in which Yankees pitchers pitched at least 13 innings and surrendered no more than two runs but the Yanks lost anyway: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA200707070.shtml
And on that same day, Detroit won in 13 innings: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/DET/DET200707070.shtml Those results left New York at 42-43, 9 games behind Detroit in the WC race and 10.5 back in the division. But they finished at 52-25 while the Tigers fell to 37-40, and NY won the WC easily. … meanwhile, Baltimore shut out Texas: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TEX/TEX200707070.shtml How long is 5 years in big-league time? Of the 54 starting position players in these 3 games, those who are still MLB regulars: Now with Detroit – None Now with Boston – Pedroia, Ortiz Now with Orioles – Markakis (injured) Now with Rangers… Read more »
Yankees hitters collectively had a Win Probability Added for last night’s game of -1.143. That is the worst collective WPA for a team’s hitters in one game in the history of the major league post-season. It breaks Brooklyn’s record from Game 2 of the 1916 World Series, when the 21-year-old pitcher Babe Ruth held Brooklyn to one run over 14 innings.
These Yankees are a far cry from the 1996-2000 Yankees. Too much reliance on power, not enough youth, and not as many hard-heads. They miss Gardner, but what they really miss are players like O’Neill. If they really do try to get under the luxury tax threshold in 2014, it’s a great time for them to rethink the current model. That’s hard to do when you win 95 games a year.
Oakland batters struck out 50 times in the series, which, as Richard Chester informs, falls five short of the record in a five-game postseason set: http://www.highheatstats.com/2012/10/talk-about-athletics-at-tigers-alds-game-1/#comment-40598
Game 3 was their downfall, whiffing only 4 times against Anibal Sanchez et al.
In winner-take-all postseason games:
– The Yankees are 11-11 over all, 5-5 at home. Their last home win was the 2003 ALCS; the last home loss was the 2011 ALDS.
– The Orioles are 1-3 over all, 1-1 on the road. The win was this year’s WC game; the loss was the 1973 ALCS against Oakland.
New York is 11-6 in postseason games in the new Stadium, but 2-3 since 2011.
On the age front:
– Teams with 3 or more players age 37+ are 9-15 in postseason games. Teams with 2 or more are 64-80.
– Teams with 2 or more such players are 10-18 in postseason finales.
New York’s game 1 lineup with Ibanez starting — 4 position players age 37+ — has been matched just twice before in postseason history, both by the 2001 Mariners in their ALCS loss to the Yanks.
So Jason Hammel is going tonight with for the Orioles, having had the best season of his career. The O’s acquired Hammel from the Rockies, who got Jeremy Guthrie in return. Guthrie had a horrible time in Denver and was swapped mid-season for the Royals’ Jonathan Sanchez, who contrived to be even worse. Guthrie, meanwhile, had a great end of the season with Kansas.
The Rockies rotation would have likely sucked no matter what they did, but boy have their trades not worked out for them.
Maybe we couldn’t predict how bad Guthrie would be with the Rockies — but when you look at his career HR rate, it’s hard to imagine him succeeding in Coors Field.
The Rockies also had an awful defensive year — last in defensive runs saved, next-to-last in total zone rating. With his subpar K rate, Guthrie has to have decent defense. The combination of Coors, his low GB/FB ratio and his corner outfielders was lethal; Guthrie had a 9.40 ERA, .368 BA and 1.135 OPS in Coors Field.
“Alex Rodriguez not in starting lineup”
http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/8495045/alex-rodriguez-new-york-yankees-benched-amid-slump-game-5-vs-baltimore-orioles
Quick, name a more newsworthy instance of a manager choosing not to start a healthy player.
BTW, if you read about A-Rod’s career numbers vs. Hammel (.333/1.282), remember that the good stuff happened a long time ago.
Over the last three postseasons, Rodriguez is 11-66 with only 2 doubles. Ouch! I think the “Alex Rodriguez can’t handle the pressure” meme is a bit overblown. But he’s clearly struggling. And the Yankees do have a quality alternative available who does hit righties. The fun thing is that the Yankees get 5 more years of this!!!
I don’t know if the Yanks will live with this for another five years. Perhaps the Yankees send him to some other team over the winter, along with a tidy $100 million check (may have to supersize the check to fit all those zeros, like those Publisher’s Clearinghouse jackpot winner checks)? Being the team that is wealthier than God provides lots of flexibility.
I’ve always wondered if A-Rod’s managers since he signed with Texas didn’t see him as an albatross. He’s paid way too much and is too famous to bench. This will lead to a lot of second guessing. However, in fairness to Girardi, if this guy wasn’t A-Rod, you have a guy who has has six straight years of declining productivity, albeit from a extremely high peak. If he were a free agent, he’s worth a short term contract at best. Not the center of the lineup
Ironic, though, that he’s replaced by Chavez, whose own postseason record is pretty crappy: .211 BA, .256 OBP, .607 OPS in 30 games, and 0-5 this series. Chavez is 6 for 51 from 2003-present.
I don’t think it’s a bad move, but I do think it leaves Joe a player shy on the bench. Alex has never had a pinch-hit in the major leagues — 0 for 15, counting postseason.
But I’m really looking forward to the reaction if he comes out to PH against a lefty in the late innings.
Not necessarily a bench problem. It depends on who is pinch hit for, since Chavez can move between first and third, but not elsewhere, and Arod can always go back to third (and, in a pinch, short). I guess the point may be that Girardi just doesn’t trust ARod to hit at this point, so it’s just a question of how many empty at bats he might get.
Every time I think about that Texas signing I think what a bargain it was. It covered 2001 to 2010 (ages 25 to 34). He won 3 MVP’s (got votes EVERY year), missed an average of <15 games per year, Batted an atrocious .299/.394/.577/.971 OPS+ 150, and was a positive impact defensive player at two different skill positions. He also stole 168 bases at a very respectable 82% success rate. I think if you look up $250million in the dictionary, that's about what you'd expect. It also would have kept texas free of the aging 35+ years. The main problem… Read more »
Some notable post-season benchings. Although he was 42, Pete Rose played in 151 games for the Phillies in 1983, and started every game of the post-season. Except game 3 of the WS. In his prime, David Justice was twice benched in post-seasons where he started every other game – in game 4 of the 1995 NLCS and in game 5 of the 1998 ALCS. In his first season in New York, Reggie Jackson took a seat for the final game of the 1977 ALCS in which he had batted 1 for 14, his only missed start of that post-season (the… Read more »
