Vida Blue and 1971 attendance, revisited

In for a dime, in for a dollar….

In a recent post, I debunked a published quote by Vida Blue complaining that his 1971 home starts had been juggled so as to coincide with Monday’s Family Night promotion. Now I’m reading Dan Epstein’s joyous Big Hair and Plastic Grass: A Funky Ride Through Baseball and America in the Swinging ’70s. Touching on Blue’s 1972 contract holdout, Epstein writes that Blue in ’71 had been drawing thousands of extra fans, at home or on the road, whenever he pitched.”

Although the prior post focused on the Family Night question, I also remarked that “the notion of a pitcher boosting attendance is usually bunk, and there’s little reason to think differently in this case,” adding that “the 3 biggest home crowds came to see Catfish Hunter (twice) and Blue Moon Odom.”

I should have looked more deeply, or else left that question alone. Vida Blue in 1971 averaged much bigger crowds than any other A’s starter, even the reigning ace and 3-time All-Star Hunter, who had a fine year himself (21-11, 2.96). This table shows the average attendance for each 1971 Oakland starter, in total and then broken out by home (H) and road (R):

[table id=74 /]

 

Notes:

  1. “Net” figures compare the pitcher’s average attendance to the team’s average for games not started by that pitcher.
  2. Doubleheaders were counted twice, crediting the day’s attendance once for each starting pitcher. Thus, these team averages do not match the official figures.

It’s interesting that Blue’s biggest impact came on the road, where the average crowd for his starts was 85% larger than for all other Oakland road games, a gain of almost 13,000 fans:

  • Baltimore’s biggest crowd saw Blue best Jim Palmer, 2-1, with both A’s runs scoring on a wild pitch/E-2.
  • Blue vs. the Red Sox filled Fenway with 1,200 more than their home opener; Rico Petrocelli hit 2 HRs to snap Blue’s 10-game win streak.
  • He drew Detroit’s largest crowd after Opening Day, larger even than a Sunday doubleheader featuring Denny McLain‘s return; the July 25 win put him at 19-3 with a 1.37 ERA.
  • He captured the Royals’ attendance crown.
  • The largest Angels crowd turned out for Blue (and red & white) on July 4.
  • He pitched to two of the four biggest crowds to RFK Stadium in the Senators’ final season; one of those games drew over 40,000, while the prior two in the series combined for just 12,000.
  • More than 30,000 saw Blue in the Bronx on June 1, when the previous day’s doubleheader drew 10,000 less.

Of the seven Oakland games that drew at least 40,000 fans that year, Blue started six, all on the road (and went 5-1).

So while the vast majority of attendance claims for star pitchers aren’t worth a rain check from a completed game, Vida Blue was definitely a huge draw in 1971 — just as another young Golden State southpaw would become ten years later. And your humble narrator is duly … humbled.

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Hartvig
Hartvig
11 years ago

I also recall reading somewhere (BJNHBA maybe?) of the late, great Mark “The Bird” Fidrych drawing huge crowds during his fantabulously wonderfullistic 1976 season.

Jim Bouldin
11 years ago
Reply to  Hartvig

Oh yeah. Mark packed stadiums single-handedly.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Hartvig

Of the 21 games with the highest attendances for the Tigers in 1976, 14 were started by Fidrych.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

John: Those 21 games were for home and road.

Jason Z
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

The Bird at Tiger Stadium in 1976 (according to Wikipedia)… June 11 against Nolan Ryan, 36,377 June 28 MNB against the Yankees, 47,855 July 3, against Baltimore, 51,032 July 9 against KC, 51,041 July 16 against OAK, 45,905 July 24 against CLE, 37,405 August 11, Wednesday against TEX, 36,523 August 17, Tuesday night, season high crowd of 51,822 August 25, Wednesday night Chisox, 39,884 The Tigers for 80 home games drew 1,467,020, an average of 18,338 (of course includes Fidrych’s starts) I would like to know what they averaged at home for his starts and then for everyone else. He… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Jason Z

Here’s what I came up with. Fidrych attracted 605,677 fans in 18 starts for an average of 33,649. None of the 18 starts was part of a double-header.

For the remaining 62 Tiger home games there were 865,856 fans. This averages out to 13,965 fans per game or 15,462 fans per date as there were 6 double-headers.

Jason: My total home attendance for the Tigers does not exactly match yours. Why, I don’t know. I may try to track it down tomorrow.

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
11 years ago
Reply to  Hartvig

No experience in baseball frustrated me more – or causes me more regret today – than the fact that I was overseas all of ’76 and never even had a chance to see Fidrych on TV. All I could do was read brief reports in the English-language newspaper and Time or Newsweek and pray that he’d still be pitching when I got back. My prayers were not answered.

scott-53
scott-53
11 years ago

Pitcher’s are always a big draw aren’t they? I’m sure you would find lots of examples. Koufax for the Dodgers,Roger Clemens for any of the teams he pitched for. Nolan Ryan…

scott-53
scott-53
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

John, You sure can come up with the numbers in a hurry. Wow that was fast! But… After first no-no 15,000 on a Saturday. After second no-no 21,000 on a Thursday. Was it a 5th place Angels team?

scott-53
scott-53
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Nolan Ryan clearly was a bigger draw than most in 1992 and 1993 even though he his W-L record was 10-14 and he had already passed 300 wins. 60,000 at Cleveland stadium.

scott-53
scott-53
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Agreed on both points. Only one “first time” for phenoms and one “last time” for iconic vets.

Players that maintain a sustained high level of play seem harder to find anymore.

scott-53
scott-53
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Actually there might be more players maintaining a sustained high level of play. The percentages are just lower.

In 1960 there were only 16 teams. Only room for 128 everyday players and 64 starting pitchers.(4 man starting rotation)

In 2012 there were 30 teams. Enough room for 240 everyday players. Enough room for 150 starting pitchers. (The expanded and playoff- fueled 5 man starting rotation).

1960 =192 starters. 2012 =390 starters.

An increase of 198 starters.

Doug
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I remember seeing this game at the Oakland Coliseum.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/OAK/OAK199005040.shtml

The anticipation of the pitching matchup, Dave Stewart vs. Clemens, was incredible after Stewart had beaten Clemens 1-0 in Boston 5 days earlier.

Yet, the attendance for that 3-game series ranged from 41,850 to 44,008. No difference.

Hard to believe those are Oakland attendance figures.

scott-53
scott-53
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

It is often a guessing game on what starting pitcher you will see. Especially if you like to make your plans 6-10 days in advance.

Luis Gomez
Luis Gomez
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

“His 2nd no-no was July 15 in Tiger Stadium (the only no-hitter I’ve ever attended)”

That is a good idea for a thread: what is the biggest game or individual performance that you ever attended?

RJ
RJ
11 years ago
Reply to  Luis Gomez

I’m sure the readers of this site have seen some great games Luis. Having never lived in the US I have a pretty small selection of games to choose from, but I feel pretty privileged to have attended Greg Maddux’s 300th win. Best individual performance was probably Tim Lincecum’s 15K game.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN200408070.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN200907270.shtml

scott-53
scott-53
11 years ago

The past 3 years would be a good time to check.(2010-2012) Attendance has been below 74 million for all 3 years after peaking above 79 million in 2007 according to(ballparksofbaseball.com)

scott-53
scott-53
11 years ago
Reply to  scott-53

@3–Make that the past 4 years that MLB was under 74 million total attendance. (Yankees,Mets,Twins and Marlins all have new stadiums)

2005–74,385,000
2006–75,959,000
2007–(79,447,000)
2008–78,584,000
2009–73,401,000
2010–73,171,000
2011–73,451,000
2012–73,951,000

Jim Bouldin
11 years ago

Blue was THE MAN in 1971, I remember it fairly well. Just a flame throwing phenom. He and Lolich had an enormous number of innings if I recall right. Possibly the last guy with a legit chance to win 30 games. It’s interesting looking at those attendance figures, that the A’s were more or less suffering with the same problem they have ever since–small crowds. However, I believe 1971 was the first year they showed the real promise that made them the mini-dynasty they became the next three years, so the fans were just beginning to be drawn in most… Read more »

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I think Oakland suffers from several issues re: crowd: 1) It’s really more of a football city. 2) It’s mostly a blue collar city so lots of people can’t afford to attend. 3) Competition from the Giants 4) Not a tourist city (e.g., Giants games probably contain a fair amount of tourists since San Francisco is a tourist draw) 5) Stadium isn’t located in that great of an area. It’s not a horrible area but not that great either. (It is accessible by public transport though I’m not sure when that particular stop was built.) There are probably other issues… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Bay Area Rapid Transit began there on 9-11-72.

Steven
Steven
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

When the A’s came to Oakland, not only did they not draw big crowds, but the Giants’ home attendance also dropped off dramatically even though they, too, had competitive teams through 1971.

RJ
RJ
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

This seems like the right place to say that Candlestick Park is easily the coldest, most depressing sports venue I have ever spent time in.

Doug
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Jim Bouldin

When a rookie pitcher makes the cover of Time magazine as Blue did in August of 1971, then you know that the average American has taken notice.

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Well, WAR is what it is, but Wood’s total run average was much worse than Blue’s: 2.56 vs. 2.11 – 25% of Wood’s runs allowed were uneared. In Wood’s case, the likelihood (although I haven’t researched it) is that those unearned runs were at least as much tied to his knuckler as to poor fielding skills, and were a hidden cost that may have contributed directly to some of his losses. I thought Wood was a wonderful phenomenon during his years as an uberstarter, but I think the Cy Young voters got it right in ’71.

bstar
11 years ago

Since rWAR uses RA9 as the basis of its WAR calculations, all of Wood’s unearned runs counted, so disregarding his unearned runs is not one reason Wilbur’s WAR was higher in ’71. Other reasons Wood’s WAR is higher in ’71 than Blue’s (other than those listed by JA) include: -Wood pitched in front of a crappy defense while Blue had a very good one backing him up. The difference in their RA9def is over half a run per 9(Wood -0.29 to Blue +0.24). -Park factors favor Wood over Blue also. Wood’s PPFp for all stadiums he pitched in during ’71… Read more »

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
11 years ago

Even though I wouldn’t recognize PPFp if I passed her on the street, I can recognize when I’m out-argued. Good responses, guys.

bstar
11 years ago

Ha. PPFp is in the WAR section, and it’s basically an average of all the 3-year park factors of the parks that the pitcher pitched in over the course of the year, weighted to the exact number of batters faced in each park. That’s pretty thorough, I think.

Andy R
Andy R
11 years ago
Reply to  Jim Bouldin

Interesting fact about Vida Blue- I believe he is the only pitcher to have a 300-strikeout season, and never reach 200 K’s in another season…

That summer of ’71 was fun for me- saw Vida Blue pitch an 11-inning, 17 strikeout game in July, then saw James Rodney Richard make his major league debut at Candlestick two months later with a 15 strikeout effort…

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Andy R

You’re right about Vida Blue never reaching 200 SO aside from that one season of 300+.

Andy R
Andy R
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I remember listening to the Gary Nolan game on the radio. I believe he was interviewed on the Giants’ pre-game show (15 minutes long in those days!), as he was from Oroville, a bit north of Sacramento. He struck Mays out 3 times on nothing but fastballs, and Willie McCovey hit a 3-run homer in the 8th to win the game. Gary Nolan’s arm problems were unfortunate- would have been fun to watch him progress from 18 with that great fastball…

Andy R
Andy R
11 years ago
Reply to  Andy R

Oops- 4 strikeouts!

Howard
Howard
11 years ago
Reply to  Jim Bouldin

Wilbur Wood dusted both of them in pitching WAR at 11.5 to Blue’s 8.7 and Lolich’s 8.2.

Jim Bouldin
11 years ago

And judging by that guy’s site, I think that’s a book I need to read. Blast from the past and all that.

Jim Bouldin
11 years ago

And then there was the ol’ plastic grass…other forms of grass were also rumored to exist, or so I was told.

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
11 years ago

John, you’ve mentioned James’s study before – can you point us to it? It doesn’t seem to be in any of the items of his I have around the house (including the Historical Abstract). It doesn’t feel surprising that Blue escaped James’s model: he was incredibly exciting (I was one of the masses crowding in to see him in Detroit). What made Blue such a sensation – apart from his amazing season and his perfect baseball name – was that 1971 was set up by his explosive appearance in 1970: as a September call-up, he’d pitched a one-hit shutout, and… Read more »

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
11 years ago

I should add that it’s consistent with everything you do that you’d devote so much research time to documenting your own error.

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Thanks, John. I appreciate the work. I’d found the Posnanski post through a Google search too, but was hoping to find the James original – I’m not doubting its existence; I have a vague memory of it and wanted to read it. I have no doubt James is right in general; I was just interested in how he conceived “conventional wisdom” in refuting it. One of the strings in your link mentioned an interesting issue that was in my mind. I can recall, when a kid, waiting to look at the pitching match-ups in the morning paper to decide whether… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago

According to the Charlton Chronology the run scored by the Red Sox came on back-to-back doubles by Tris Speaker and Duffy Lewis. Speaker’s double was hit into the overflow crowd and would have otherwise been an easy out.

Jason Z
11 years ago

That matchup between Walter Johnson and Smoky Joe Wood always makes me think of an article that Roger Angell wrote for the July 20, 1981 issue of the New Yorker magazine. It is titled, “The Web of the Game.” Roger Angell picks up a soon to be 92-year-old, Smoky Joe Wood and takes him to a game between Yale (where he had coached the baseball team from 1923-42), and St. Johns. The pitchers that day in West Haven, Connecticutt were Ron Darling and Frank Viola. Everybody on this site needs to find this article and read it. Roger Angell is… Read more »

David Horwich
David Horwich
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

The SI quote is from Daniel Okrent’s article on Bill James in the May 25, 1981 issue of Sports Illustrated:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1124493/2/index.htm

My understanding is that the Okrent article was an important moment in James’ early career, one of his first mentions in the mainstream media.

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Thanks again – this came in while I was working on #42.

David Horwich
David Horwich
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

James wrote about pitcher effects on attendance in both the ’77 and ’78 Abstracts, at the very least:

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2004/07/abstracts_from_12.php

but it’s not clear whether he mentioned Ryan specifically in either case; apparently the initial impetus to conduct the research was a comment by a NY sportswriter’s about Tom Seaver’s effect on attendance at Shea.

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
11 years ago
Reply to  David Horwich

What an interesting link – thank you, David. It brought back to mind the freshness of reading those early Abstracts; I doubt I’ve ever seen the very first ones, though I do remember that they were at one time stapled. It’s hard to tell from Rich Lederer’s summary just what James wrote about pitchers as draws in the ’78 Abstract (and the word “attendance” draws no hits for the later Abstract abstracts), but judging from the account of the ’77 discussion, James found three pitchers who had significant impact on attendance in 1976: Fidrych, Randy Jones, and Tom Seaver. Fidrych… Read more »

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Yes, for McLain, the big draw ends with number 30. When I was looking at this earlier this evening, I came across McLain win number 31 at home – 9100 loyal fans – and saw that the night before there had been 46,000 – for Joe Sparma! So James’s theory holds. But wait! – Sparma’s game was the date the Tigers were first able to clinch the pennant after waiting since 1945, and they did, at home. So McLain, one day late and one victory over, was simply an anticlimax. And, in fact, I remember thinking exactly that way (“Well,… Read more »

Doug
Editor
11 years ago

To your point about the excitement that Blue engendered in 1971, the diagonal subtext across the top-right corner of the Vida Blue cover of Time Magazine (8-23-71) reads “New Zip in the Old Game”.

comment image

Luis Gomez
Luis Gomez
11 years ago

I was watching the news the other day about the NY storm. It look really bad. Hope you guys in the area are all safe.

Luis Gomez
Luis Gomez
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

That is good news, John. You might wanna take a look at Mexicali´s weather to feel warmer, we´re still fighting mid-90´s heat these days. 🙂

Luis Gomez
Luis Gomez
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

The only two pitchers that I would consider were really a “phenom” during their rookie years are Dwight Gooden and Hideo Nomo. The others, I don´t remember a great deal of publicity about them, although I wasn´t born until Montefusco´s ROY season. Before you made that list, I was going to ask for a Fernandomania attendance analysis, but I´m not sure if I want to make my memories being erased by facts. All this threads about Vida Blue remind me of one of the first books I read in English. It was Rob Neyers´s Big Book of Facts (or something… Read more »

bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  Luis Gomez

I agree, Luis. I had the same thought, that most of these pitchers didn’t have the hype factor of Fidrych/Fernando. I was going to do an attendance study of Fernandomania, but I’m just not up for it right now.

Luis Gomez
Luis Gomez
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

In 1981, Fernando made 12 starts at Dodger Stadium. Of those starts, 5 were made before the strike, averaging a little over 51k per start, in comparison with 48k the day before and 44k the day after.

After the strike, the Dodgers average attenance before, during and after Fernando´s starts were 31,154, 46,528 and 41,768 in that order.

He was and still is, an icon in the Los Angeles´ latin and baseball community.

Brent
Brent
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

But check out the road crowds for Fernando in 1981: (starting in May, after his first 5 starts were wins) May 3 (Sunday), @ Montreal 46,405 (Saturday attendance 22,820, Friday, 28,179) May 8 (Friday) @ NY Mets,39,848 (Saturday 16,776, Sunday, 12,102 May 23 (Saturday) @ Cincy, 40,928 (1st game of DH), Friday, 27,943, Sunday, 36,113 May 28 (Thursday) @ Atlanta, 26,597, Monday 11,911, Wedenesday, 17,581 June 6 (Saturday) @ ChiCubs, 30,556, Friday 7815 Sunday 20.024 June 11 (Thursday) @ StL, 39,250, Tuesday 19,654, Wednesday 17,779 So, in the 6 road starts from the beginning of May to the strike, the… Read more »

Doug
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I remember the Gooden craze quite distinctly, and the numbers bear it out. Home, ALL, 22,749 Home, Gooden, 27,716 Home, others, 21,526 Home, Gooden over Others, +6,190 Away, ALL, 21,850 Away, Gooden, 24,621 Away, Others, 21,220 Away, Gooden over Others, +3,401 Other points: – Best home draw in a Gooden start – Cubs with Dick Ruthven starting – 2nd best home draw in a Gooden start – Cubs with Dick Ruthven starting (not a typo) – 6th best home draw in a Gooden start – Dodgers with Valenzuela starting (go figure) – Best away draw in a Gooden start –… Read more »

scott-53
scott-53
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Interesting coincidence that Gooden’s 4 lowest attended road starts all went to extra innings.

bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug, were those figures ’84? ’85? or ’84 and ’85?

I ask because Gooden was great in his rookie season but took it to another level entirely in ’85. My remembrance of it was that Goodenmania didn’t really reach critical mass until ’85, but you’re the Mets fan and I’m sure you remember it more vividly than I.

I put Gooden’s ’85 season on the very short list of the greatest pitcher seasons of the last fifty years.

Doug
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Those were 1984 numbers.

It’s actually John who is the Mets fan.

bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Hmmm, I thought you, JA, and birtelcom were all Mets guys. Who’s your team?

David Horwich
David Horwich
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I was at that game, too. My recollection is that Knight didn’t attempt a throw on Moreland’s squib, and I was mad at him for not at least trying and perhaps drawing an error on the play. I mean, the Mets were already up 7-0 by the 5th, what he did have to lose? And then Gooden might’ve had the Met’s first no-hitter…

Jason Z
11 years ago
Reply to  David Horwich

I was not at the game, but I remember it the same way you do David.

For years when it seemed the Mets would never
throw a no-hitter I would think of this game.

I too was mad at Ray Knight for not making that
throw. Moreland wasn’t exactly a burner on the
base paths.

I am to young to remember Tom Seaver’s gem
that was ruined by J. Qualls.

But, I have read about it.

12 for 47, give me a break.

Good nite and good luck.

Jason Z
11 years ago
Reply to  David Horwich

John-

I felt at the time that maybe he would have been given an error on the play.

You know, hometown scoring…

The reality though is that he probably would not have. As you say, he really didn’t have
a shot at Moreland.

Howard
Howard
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Gooden did not walk a single batter in either of those 16-k games. Incredible.

Bryan O'Connor
Editor
11 years ago

John, it takes a big man to admit you were wrong. And then to write 600 words about attendance as penance.

scott-53
scott-53
11 years ago
Reply to  Bryan O'Connor

Vida Blue did have lots of reasons to hold out in 1972 other than attendance. Take your pick.

-1967 Kansas City Athletics 2nd round draft pick.
-Won/Loss record of 24-8 in 1971.
-$ 14,750 salary in 1971. ($567 per week)(26 week regular season paycheck)
-Athletics swept 3-0 in 1971 ALCS by O’s 3-0. (best of 5)

P.S.-Minimum wage was $64.00 dollars per week in 1972. $1.60 per hour. Only 40 years ago.

scott-53
scott-53
11 years ago
Reply to  scott-53

My clock says 12:50 P.M. (HHS is still on daylight savings time.)

trackback

[…] High Heat Stats ≫ Vida Blue and 1971 attendance, revisited2012. 11. 2. – In a recent post, I debunked a published quote by Vida Blue complaining that his 1971 home starts had been juggled so as to coincide with …http://www.highheatstats.com/2012/11/vida-blue-and-1971-attendance-revisited/ […]

Michael B Johnson
Michael B Johnson
5 years ago

I believe Calvin Griffith had a Vida Blue night when the A’s came to Bloomington to play the Twins, as I had a button they handed out at the game. “Roses are red. My clothes were blue. When I was there. To see Vida Blue of something corny like that.