2012 Streaker Awards for Pitchers
Following up from my piece a few weeks ago on 2012 batting streaks, here is a review of the longest game streaks in 2012 for pitchers.
After the jump, check out long streaks for both effective and ineffective pitching performances in 2012. Which ones are most surprising or noteworthy for you?
| Rk | WINS | Strk Start | End | Games | Tm | Rk | LOSSES | Strk Start | End | Games | Tm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | R.A. Dickey | 2012-04-25 | 2012-07-19 | 11 | NYM | 1 | Ricky Romero | 2012-06-27 | 2012-09-12 | 13 | TOR | |
| 2 | Jered Weaver | 2012-05-18 | 2012-08-06 | 10 | LAA | 2 | Bud Norris | 2012-05-31 | 2012-09-20 | 12 | HOU | |
| 3 | Kris Medlen | 2012-07-31 | 2012-09-30 | 9 | ATL | 3 | Hector Noesi | 2012-05-12 | 2012-09-17 | 9 | SEA | |
| 3 | Felix Hernandez | 2012-06-23 | 2012-08-27 | 9 | SEA | 3 | Chris Volstad | 2012-04-14 | 2012-08-14 | 9 | CHC | |
| 3 | A.J. Burnett | 2012-05-19 | 2012-07-08 | 9 | PIT | 3 | Jonathan Sanchez | 2012-04-24 | 2012-08-03 | 9 | KCR-COL | |
| DECISIONS | NO DECISIONS | |||||||||||
| 1 | Wade Miley | 2012-05-09 | 2012-08-28 | 20 | ARI | Alex White | 2012-08-02 | 2012-08-25 | 6 | COL | ||
| 2 | Johnny Cueto | 2012-05-15 | 2012-08-18 | 18 | CIN | Shaun Marcum | 2012-08-30 | 2012-09-21 | 5 | MIL | ||
| 2 | Gio Gonzalez | 2012-04-17 | 2012-07-24 | 18 | WSN | Ross Detwiler | 2012-05-25 | 2012-07-17 | 5 | WSN | ||
| Kyle Lohse | 2012-05-15 | 2012-06-04 | 5 | STL | ||||||||
| Edwin Jackson | 2012-04-26 | 2012-05-18 | 5 | WSN | ||||||||
| 6+ IP, <= 3 ER | < 6 IP, 4+ ER | |||||||||||
| 1 | Ryan Vogelsong | 2012-05-03 | 2012-07-29 | 16 | SFG | 1 | Jonathan Sanchez | 2012-06-24 | 2012-07-29 | 6 | KCR-COL | |
| 2 | David Price | 2012-06-19 | 2012-08-21 | 12 | TBR | 1 | Francisco Liriano | 2012-04-07 | 2012-05-07 | 6 | MIN | |
| 3 | Jordan Zimmermann | 2012-06-05 | 2012-07-28 | 11 | WSN | 3 | Daisuke Matsuzaka | 2012-09-02 | 2012-10-03 | 5 | BOS | |
| 3 | R.A. Dickey | 2012-04-25 | 2012-06-18 | 11 | NYM | 3 | P.J. Walters | 2012-06-02 | 2012-09-12 | 5 | MIN | |
| 3 | Felix Doubront | 2012-08-03 | 2012-09-07 | 5 | BOS | |||||||
| 3 | Johan Santana | 2012-07-06 | 2012-08-17 | 5 | NYM | |||||||
| 3 | Josh Outman | 2012-06-06 | 2012-06-28 | 5 | COL | |||||||
| 3 | Anthony Bass | 2012-05-25 | 2012-06-25 | 5 | SDP | |||||||
| SAVES | BLOWN SAVES | |||||||||||
| 1 | Joe Nathan | 2012-04-15 | 2012-09-12 | 31 | TEX | 1 | Matt Albers | 2012-05-08 | 2012-09-30 | 6 | BOS-ARI | |
| 2 | Aroldis Chapman | 2012-06-26 | 2012-09-04 | 27 | CIN | 1 | Francisco Cordero | 2012-04-27 | 2012-07-30 | 6 | TOR-HOU | |
| 3 | Chris Perez | 2012-04-08 | 2012-07-05 | 24 | CLE | 3 | 8 Pitchers | 5 | ||||
| APPEAR IN WINS | APPEAR IN LOSSES | |||||||||||
| 1 | Aroldis Chapman | 2012-06-26 | 2012-09-04 | 31 | CIN | Matt Reynolds | 2012-06-02 | 2012-08-05 | 30 | COL | ||
| 2 | Jim Johnson | 2012-07-30 | 2012-10-02 | 26 | BAL | Rhiner Cruz | 2012-05-18 | 2102-08-13 | 28 | HOU | ||
| 3 | Rafael Soriano | 2012-05-22 | 2012-07-17 | 25 | NYY | Louis Coleman | 2012-05-01 | 2012-08-12 | 23 | KCR | ||
| 8+ Ks as Starter | <=3 Ks as Starter | |||||||||||
| 1 | Max Scherzer | 2012-07-19 | 2012-09-07 | 10 | DET | 1 | Henderson Alvarez | 2012-04-24 | 2012-06-30 | 13 | TOR | |
| 2 | R.A. Dickey | 2012-05-17 | 2012-06-18 | 7 | NYM | 2 | Nick Blackburn | 2012-05-11 | 2012-07-31 | 11 | MIN | |
| 3 | Clayton Kershaw | 2012-08-15 | 2012-09-04 | 5 | LAD | 3 | Aaron Cook | 2012-05-05 | 2012-08-15 | 10 | BOS | |
| 3 | Stephen Strasburg | 2012-06-02 | 2012-06-25 | 5 | WSN | |||||||
| <=2 BBs as Starter | 3+ BBs as Starter | |||||||||||
| 1 | Wade Miley | 2012-04-23 | 2012-09-02 | 24 | ARI | 1 | Edinson Volquez | 2012-05-17 | 2012-08-10 | 16 | SDP | |
| 2 | Bronson Arroyo | 2012-04-08 | 2012-08-11 | 23 | CIN | 2 | Sam Deduno | 2012-07-07 | 2012-08-19 | 8 | MIN | |
| 3 | Jeff Francis | 2012-06-21 | 2012-10-03 | 22 | COL | 3 | Yu Darvish | 2012-07-01 | 2012-08-12 | 7 | TEX | |
| 3 | Scott Diamond | 2012-05-08 | 2012-09-04 | 22 | MIN | 3 | Kyle Drabek | 2012-05-05 | 2012-06-08 | 7 | TOR | |
| 3 | Ubaldo Jimenez | 2012-04-07 | 2012-05-11 | 7 | CLE | |||||||
| <= 1 IP, 2+ Ks in Relief | <= 1 IP, 0 Ks in Relief | |||||||||||
| 1 | Aroldis Chapman | 2012-06-24 | 2012-07-15 | 8 | CIN | 1 | Randy Choate | 2012-09-11 | 2012-09-22 | 10 | LAD | |
| 2 | Craig Kimbrel | 2012-07-28 | 2012-08-22 | 7 | ATL | 1 | James Russell | 2012-08-04 | 2012-08-24 | 10 | CHC | |
| 3 | Craig Kimbrel | 2012-06-30 | 2012-07-14 | 6 | ATL | 1 | Jon Rauch | 2012-07-22 | 2012-08-10 | 10 | NYM | |
| 3 | David Robertson | 2012-04-20 | 2012-05-08 | 6 | NYY | |||||||
| >1 IP in Relief | <=2 BFs in Relief | |||||||||||
| 1 | Adam Ottavino | 2012-07-27 | 2012-09-12 | 15 | COL | 1 | Joe Thatcher | 2012-07-25 | 2012-09-25 | 13 | SDP | |
| 2 | Alfredo Simon | 2012-06-27 | 2012-08-18 | 9 | CIN | 1 | Clay Rapada | 2012-06-28 | 2012-07-30 | 13 | NYY | |
| 3 | Carlos Torres | 2012-08-05 | 2012-08-28 | 8 | COL | 1 | Tim Byrdak | 2012-05-04 | 2012-05-22 | 13 | NYM | |
| 3 | Josh Roenicke | 2012-07-16 | 2012-08-11 | 8 | COL | |||||||
| 3 | Craig Stammen | 2012-06-24 | 2012-07-22 | 8 | WSN | |||||||
Some observations.
A.J. Burnett’s 9-game win streak is his career long. His longest previous streak was 7 games in 2005 when he was still a Marlin. As a Yankee, Burnett had just 3 streaks of 3 games or longer, a 3 game streak in 2011, 4 games in 2010 and 5 games in 2009. Like Burnett, A.J. Dickey’s leading win streak in 2012 is also his career long, and his third straight season with a streak (in starts) of at least 3 games. Prior to 2010, Dickey’s last 3+ game win streak in starts was with Texas in 2004.
In a stunning reversal of form, Ricky Romero cratered in 2012 after becoming one of just 42 starting pitchers since 1901 to start his career with 3 straight 100 ERA+ seasons (min. 162 IP). Of those 42 pitchers, Romero’s 74 ERA+ in his fourth season (min. 162 IP) is the lowest ever (the median is 116, similar to Romero’s career 119 ERA+ at the start of 2012). Of the 138 pitchers since 1901 with a 140+ ERA+ season as a starter (min. 162 IP) in the first 3 seasons of a career, Romero and Tim Lincecum became just the 6th and 7th with a subsequent starting season (min. 162 IP) of 75 ERA+ or lower. Of those 7, only Romero and Dave Roberts in 1971-72 had the 140 and 75 seasons back to back.
Despite all of Cliff Lee‘s no-decisions in 2012, he had just one 3-game streak of NDs to go with six such 2-game streaks. This compares with decision streaks of 4, 3 and 2 games, the latter two streaks coming in Lee’s final eight starts. Lee’s 13 no-decisions in his first 22 starts came during the Phillies’ first 128 games, matching Annibal Sanchez in 2011 and exceeded in the searchable era by only 8 pitchers, led by Bert Blyleven with 15 such games to start 1979. Only one of these eight pitched before 1978 - Lee Meadows, way back in 1917. The lowest season ratio of decisions to starts (min. 25 starts) is Mike Krukow in 1987, with a 5-6 record in 28 starts.
Despite Ryan Vogelsong’s leading streak of 16 quality starts, he ranked only 11th in total quality starts with 22 for the season. Leading with 27 was R.A. Dickey. He and David Price had quality start ratios above 80% (min. 25 starts), the 6th straight year that at least one pitcher has reached that level. The only other such streaks of 6 or more seasons are 1988-1994 (7 years) and 1962-1969 (8 years). Prior to 1962, only 5 pitchers had achieved this distinction – Robin Roberts in 1952, Bill Bevens, Spud Chandler and Bob Feller in 1946, and Hal Newhouser in 1945.
Dice-K’s streak of 5 starts of less than 6 IP with 4 or more ER are part of a season of only 45.2 IP in 11 starts, only 2 of them of the quality variety. Matsuzaka and Jonathan Sanchez in 2012 joined Brian Matusz from 2011 to became just the 12th, 13th and 14th starting pitchers since 1901 to average fewer than 13 outs per start in a season of 10 or more starts. Of those 14, the most inept starter was John D’Acquisto in 1977 with 44.2 IP in 14 starts, an average of less than 10 outs per start.
Matt Albers’ streak of 6 consecutive blown saves was a continuation of a streak begun in 2008 that has now run to 17 straight save opportunities not converted (in fact, Albers has yet to record a single save in his career). The streak, though, is more of a statistical curiosity than anything else as Albers did not enter any of those 17 games in the 9th inning or later, and only two of them in the 8th inning. How bad was Francisco Cordero’s streak of 6 blown saves (5 of which were true 9th inning save chances)? How about allowing 17 hits, 7 walks and 3 HR in just 4.2 IP in that stretch, good for an ERA of 28.93, an unfortunate way to close out a very good career, should Cordero not find any suitors for 2013 or beyond.
Henderson Alvarez’s 13 straight starts without striking out more than 3 batters was part of a season SO/9 ratio of only 3.8, only the second starter this century (Chien-Ming Wang was the other) with a rate below 4.0 (min. 162 IP) in his first or second season (in comparison, 14 pitchers had this distinction in the 1980s, including 5 in just the 1988 season). Aaron Cook’s 1.9 SO/9 is the first starter’s mark below 2.0 in a season with 15+ starts since Glenn Abbott in 1979 and, before him, Bob Trice in 1954.
Jeff Francis had just one start out of 24 allowing 3 walks. However, only two of those starts lasted 6 innings and none were longer. In fact, his mark of 1.8 BB/9 is the lowest for any starter since 1901 in a season of 20+ starts averaging fewer than 5 IP per start (only Kirk Reuter in 1994 also has a BB/9 under 3.0 in such a season). Despite Francis’s very modest 113 IP for the season, that was the top figure for Rockies’ starters who, excluding Francis, posted a collective 4.0 BB/9.
Edinson Volquez ran away from the field with a streak of 16 straight starts allowing 3 or more walks. However, Volquez had company in 2012 with Jonathan Sanchez and Oliver Perez, all three finishing the year as starters allowing more walks than runs for their careers (min. 500 IP). Should any of them finish their careers with that distinction and with a career BB/9 over 5.0, they would join just 8 other pitchers to do so since 1901, and only the second (Kaz Ishii is the other) since Dave Morehead (1963-1970). Curiously, the two pitchers among these eight “wild men” having the most career IP toiled most famously in pinstripes during the Yankees’ 1950s dynasty – Tommy Byrne (of course) and Bob Turley.
Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel were easily the most dominant 2012 closers of the flame-throwing class. In fact, they and Kenley Jansen are the only relievers to post a career SO/9 mark above 14.0 over the first 3 seasons of a career (min. 100 IP), and all three did so in the three seasons just ended. The previous record-holder was Billy Wagner with a 13.2 SO/9 to start his career in 1995-97. Of the top 25 SO/9 leaders among relievers in the first 3 seasons of a career, only Rob Dibble (1988-90) and Dick Radatz (1962-64) pitched before Wagner. The highest mark prior to Radatz’s 10.6 was 9.4 by Ryne Duren up to 1958, a mark that now is outside the top 50 scores.
It’s no surprise that Rockies’ pitchers occupy 3 of the top spots on the list of longest streaks of multi-inning relief appearances. All Colorado starters amassed just 765 IP for the season, only 53.8% of the team’s total innings. Thus, there were lots of opportunities for inning-eating appearances by the bullpen, as evidenced by the Rockies’ having 7 pitchers with 50+ IP amassed exclusively in relief, tied for the most ever with the 2011 Indians and three other clubs. Fully 78 of the 112 teams with 5 or more such pitchers played since 2000, and only two (the 1962 Angels and 1970 Dodgers) played before 1985.
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I’m impressed that Felix Hernandez won nine straight decisions pitching in that park with that lineup behind him, where eight innings of one-run ball can easily turn into a loss. I’m also impressed that a knuckleballer had the second-longest streak of striking out 8 or more hitters per start. And somebody needs to tell Volquez that he really can pitch to contact in Petco.
By comparison to Dickey, Phil Niekro’s longest streak with 8+ Ks was just two games. He did, though, have a 7-game streak with 6+ Ks that was part of a 14-game streak with 5+ Ks. Dickey, no doubt, has had more help from the batters with his strikeouts.
Wakefield also has had only a 2-game streak with 8+ Ks, and only a 5-game streak with 6+ Ks and a separate 9 game streak with 5+ Ks.
It seems very unusual for a young pitcher like Wade Miley to have many consecutive decisions.
And his streak might have been 28 straight decisions if not for two events — (1) a 3-run 8th against the Mets’ bullpen, getting him off the hook on May 4, and (2) a walk-off 2-run double by Adrian Gonzalez off J.J. Putz, costing Miley a win on Sept. 2.
Miley is the first pitcher in 5 years to notch 27+ decisions in his 1st or 2nd season.
Keen observation, JA, on decision streaks by young pitchers who currently are seldom exposed to very long outings, unless they have been remarkably efficient in their pitch counts.
However, Miley was 25 last season, young but not that young. Younger pitchers with longer streaks since 1990 include:
- Cal Eldred, 29 games, 1992-93, age 24-25
- Mark Mulder, 24 games, 2001-02, age 24-25
- Jeremy Bonderman, 23 games, 2005-06, age 22-23
- Ismael Valdez, 23 games, 1995, age 21-22
- Brad Radke, 22 games, 1997, age 24
- Ramon Martinez, 21 games, 1992-93, age 24-25
Among the early listings, I’d say the least surprising was Jonathan Sanchez posting 6 straight games of less than 6 IP and 4+ ER. It’s always taken a small miracle just to get him through 6 IP, and now without the refuge of pitching to the pitcher, he was never gonna make it in the AL.
Does any organization have less understanding of starting pitching than the Royals?
Matt Reynolds appeared in 30 consecutive losses…. and 40 out of 41.
In only 4 of those games did he enter with a lead/tie.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=reynoma02&t=p&year=2012&share=1.71#104-145-sum:pitching_gamelogs
Here’s another streak, by one of my favorite whipping boys:
10 consecutive games with negative WPA — Carlos Zambrano, June 9 to July 30.
After a hot start (2.81 ERA in his first 11 starts), Big Z notched just 1 QS in his next 9 starts and was dropped from the rotation for the rest of the year.
BTW, our old friend Armando Galarraga has an active 13-game streak of negative WPA, covering all his games in the last 2 years.
I still feel for bad for both Galarraga & Joyce. By that time it was starting to look pretty clear that Galarraga’s future was considerably dimmer than it had been a couple of seasons before and a perfect game would have been way to leave something that would have lasted forever. And Joyce was so obviously distraught over having blown the call and taken that chance at immortality away from that I feel almost as bad for him.
Not only does it seem incredibly unlikely that Galarraga will ever find himself in that position again, it looks entirely possible that he may have made his last major league start.
And speaking of Randy Choate, one of the most amazing streaks ever:
34 straight games pitching LESS than an inning.
That’s the longest streak in the last 20 years (proven) and, by inference, the longest in MLB history.
And best of all:
1) He was lousy during that streak, allowing 20 baserunners in 11.1 IP, and 6 ER; and
2) The Cards signed this 37-year-old to a THREE year deal; and
3) The streak is still active!
Man, I can’t wait for the season to start!
It’s maybe not fair to Choate to judge his 11.1 innings based upon ER and baserunners.
He gave up 2 xbh in 44 AB.
Nine walks in 11 innings? Yes, awful… but he’s brought in to face that dangerous lefty that you’re afraid of. Sure, you want your loogy to get him out, but the BB is usually the 2nd choice. And three of those 9 BB were IBB.
As for the 6 runs, he gave up one homer.
Probably all the other runs came in with Choate sitting in the dugout watching somebody else fail.
And he did his job vs lefties.
For the 2012 season
L .158 .243 .218 .461
Choate sitting in the dugout watching somebody else fail — that’s an occupational hazard for a LOOGY, no?
His composite WPA for that 34-game streak was minus-0.353. For the season, it was minus-0.2.
For 2010-12 combined, his WPA is 1.4 (84th among all relievers) and his WAR is 1.2 (125th among all relievers). Among specialists (relievers averaging less than 0.9 IP per game), his WAR ranks 19th.
I’m not denying that he’s effective vs. LHBs or that he “did his job” as it was defined for him. I’m saying that the job definition is silly, that the LOOGY phenomenon is inefficient. And ironically, I think that as it has grown, it has become less effective, because managers are more likely to split up their big LH bats.
From 2004-10, while still serving as a lefty specialist, Choate averaged 2.6 batters per appearance. For 2011-12, that’s down to 2.0. There aren’t enough high-leverage situations against LHBs for him to be very valuable.
Of his 80 games last year, 37 involved just 1 batter. The highest WPAs of those 37 games were 0.083, 0.083, 0.071, and 0.054. The average of the 24 positive values — taking out all those where he measurably hurt their chances — was just 0.029. That’s piddling stuff.
Last year, Choate faced 168 batters, 116 of them with the platoon advantage. I think that roster spot would be better spent on a bench hitter.
But how much WAR is a 25th-guy bench hitter going to be worth? Surely less than one win. I’m not so sure I wouldn’t rather have a skilled LOOGY than a pinch hitter who’s going to yield the same amount of WAR.
WPA question: if Choate allows a runner on, and then another pitcher allows the run to score, is the other pitcher charged with 100% of the negative WPA?
“WPA question: if Choate allows a runner on, and then another pitcher allows the run to score, is the other pitcher charged with 100% of the negative WPA?”
Answer: Yes.
As to a bench hitter being worth less than one win, I agree. But Choate’s averaged 0.45 WAR over the past 4 years. The only true LOOGY who reached 1 WAR last year was Wesley Wright of Houston.
@17 JA On the other hand, Javier Lopez has averaged just over 1 WAR for his last five full seasons.
RJ @18 — That’s true, and I’d be happy for my team to employ Javier Lopez.
But he’s obviously just a better pitcher than Choate and most other lefty specialists. Let’s use last 3 years, since Choate missed most of 2007-08 while Lopez missed most of 2009:
Lopez, 217 G, 147 IP, 148 ERA+
Choate, 219 G, 108 IP, 122 ERA+
Until last year, Lopez wasn’t really used as a LOOGY. In 2010-11, he faced more RH than LH, and was OK against them — no HRs, OPS about .765. He did not allow a HR to a RH in the 3 years, in almost 300 PAs.
Choate has faced over 70% LH over the 3 years, and RH have really hurt him in 2 of the 3 years. He’s allowed 3 HRs in 130 PAs by RH.
And clearly, Choate has been kept away from the most dangerous RH. Lopez, not so much.
Further to RJ @18 — Let’s look at the volatility of LOOGY value.
Here are the top WAR values by LOOGYs in 2009-11 (defined as LHP averaging less than 0.8 IP per game), and the same pitcher’s following season:
1.7, J.Lopez in 2010 — 1.1 in 2011.
1.6, A.Rhodes in 2010 — 0.1 in 2011.
1.2, J.Thatcher in 2010 — 0.0 in 2011.
1.2, T.Miller 2009 — 0.0 in 2010.
1.1, J.Lopez in 2011 — 0.5 in 2012.
1.1, S.Eyre in 2009 — retired.
0.9, R.Choate in 2009 — 0.4 in 2012.
0.9, B.Logan in 2010 — 0.4 in 2011.
0.9, J.Beimel in 2009 — 0.8 in 2010.
0.8, S.Elbert in 2011 — 0.9 in 2012.
0.8, B.Bray in 2011 — 0.0 in 2012.
0.8, J. Beimel in 2010 — minus-0.5 in 2011.
0.8, E.O’Flaherty in 2009 — 0.8 in 2010.
0.8, E.O’Flaherty in 2010 — 3.2 in 2011 (though no longer a LOOGY).
0.8, P.Feliciano in 2009 — 0.8 in 2010.
0.8, P.Feliciano in 2010 — signed with Yanks, hasn’t pitched since.
Not counting Eyre’s retirement, there are 15 seasons here, and in just 6 of them did the pitcher follow up with a season even HALF as valuable.
A few of these guys were consistent. Lopez and O’Flaherty are real good. Feliciano was pretty consistent, until his arm fell off at age 33. Beimel was pretty consistent, until his arm fell off at 34. Bray was good in ’08, injured ’09, good ’11, injured last year. Warming up 80-100 times a year might not be the most healthy activity.
I still don’t see how your last two comments prove having your 25th guy as another pinch hitter instead of a LOOGY is a good idea.
I’d rather have as strong and flexible of a bullpen as possible, but I can understand your position. Still, I don’t think your numbers really show that one option is preferable over the other.
I don’t really have a position on this debate but isn’t the LOOGY volatility just reflective of volatility among relievers in general?
bstar @21 and Ed @22 — I partly agree with both your points.
Re: volatility of LOOGYs, I think it’s much higher than that of relievers in general. And logically it should be, since their performance is being judged on a much smaller sample.
It’s not just that Choate pitched just 39 innings last year, but that his job performance is really being gauged just by what he did against 116 LH batters. That’s less than half of a typical closer’s season total.
bstar, I did try to find a way to compare LOOGY value to that of a bench player, but I just couldn’t figure out how to define such a player, in terms of P-I search parameters. I found that a lot of guys who met the various conditions that I set for a search were guys who started out with a bigger role, but got shunted to the bench for poor performance — too much noise in the data. I’ll keep trying.
John – I would also expect that the last person on the bench has a fair amount of volatility from year to year. Not sure how you look at that though since as you’re aware such a role can change greatly from year to year (more so than a LOOGY).
Since we’re talking streaks and Choate, Randy is the all-time record holder for appearances allowing 1 hit or less, at 97 games. The list of leaders for this feat is chock full of less-than-one-inning, LOOGY-type guys, except for who’s #2 on the list: Craig Kimbrel.
Kimbrel’s streak includes all of 2012 and is still active at 65 games.
We love us some Kimbrel. I hope he lasts longer than Eric Gagne … and that his 1-hit-or-less streak is snapped by the Mets.
The Braves were super careful with Kimbrel’s usage in 2012, and I’m starting to admit to myself the health benefits of pitching 60-65 innings instead of 80, so here’s to hoping he mows down the Mets for years to come.
Shouldn’t the LOOGY value be team specific? Seems to me that you are basically looking for one of three types of player: a LOOGY for one or two batters 60 times a year in high leverage situations, a quality pinch hitter, also to use in high leverage situations, or a quality utility guy. If I had an older team (like the Yankees, or the Phillies) I would probably value the utility guy higher. If I had a deep bullpen with a lot of high quality arms, how much added value does a LOOGY bring over another pitcher already in my bullpen–remember you aren’t talking about a large number of batters faced?
Ed @25 — I’m sure you’re right about volatility among last-man-on-the-bench players.
That’s probably why nobody gets a 3-year deal to fill that role.
Look, I’m not going to be able to produce a persuasive value comparison for LOOGY vs. bench player. I just don’t like the LOOGY phenomenon, the apparently growing sense that every team needs one. As a fan, I don’t like it aesthetically — 60 to 80 times a year, sitting through a mid-inning pitching change (and often two of them) just so a team can pursue an advantage that is usually small.
For the last 2 years, the obviously non-contending Mets used a roster spot for Tim Byrdak, in his late 30s, to face about 2 batters per outing. I’d rather see some kid from the minors, whether it’s a reliever or a bench hitter.
In 2012, there were 697 pure LOOGY appearances — i.e., a lefty reliever facing exactly one batter. For all those appearances, the average WPA was a piddling 0.012; the median was 0.020. “LOOGY” might be an important role for a contending team who has a good one. But I don’t think there are enough good ones to justify the trend — not in strategic terms, and not in aesthetic terms.
John – No disagreement here. If a team wants to use their last bench spot for a reliever, why not try to find someone who can get both righties and lefties out???
The Braves didn’t have a LOOGY last year. Not every team needs one. But if a very skilled one is available, I would pick him up (they’re cheap, after all). I’d rather have a good LOOGY than a pinch hitter who’s going to hit .230 with no power, but that’s just my preference.
I also agree they’re more important (though not necessary) for a contending team. Remember Graeme Lloyd for the late ’90s Yanks? 3 postseasons, 13 appearances in only 8 IP, 2 hits and zero runs allowed. Lloyd did have value, especially in the late innings of a postseason game, where leverage index and WPA cannot properly capture the importance of at-bats with the season on the line.
I also agree about the aesthetics, but until MLB makes a rule about pitching changes during one inning or whatever, it’s here to stay.
I’m not sure, but I think what you’re really railing against is the idea that every team needs one. I’m not convinced that every team believes that.
I also understand I’m kind of in the minority on this issue, but that’s hardly an unfamiliar spot for me.