Daze of Future Passed

I swap sports magazines with my friend Z-bo. He subscribes to Sports Illustrated, while I get ESPN: The Magazine, just because it comes free with my online Insider sub. We save them up for 3-4 months and then trade, so by the time I get around to reading SI, it’s old news — which can be interesting in its own way.

From the “Hot/Not” box in SI’s June 11 issue:

 

“Oakland is laughably bad, having lost 10 of 11 and ranking 28th or worse in every major offensive statistic except HRs.”

When that was written, the A’s were 23-31. As of June 11, the date on the magazine, they were 26-35, a season-worst 9 games under .500; they were last in the division, 9 games behind Texas.

Flash forward: Starting June 12, they won 5 in a row, sparking a 27-9 run that led to a 68-33 close-out. They never lost 4 straight the rest of the way, and they averaged 5 runs per game for those last 101 contests.

Now, nobody foresaw such a turnaround. Still, whoever dubbed them “laughably bad” deserves a rookie hazing. Anyone who’s followed the big leagues closely for even a few years knows that neither a 23-31 record nor losing 10 of 11 is unusual. The record projects to 69-93; worse marks are posted every single year — five teams in 2012, three in 2011. And even a good team can lose 10 of 11: The Dodgers closed June on a 1-11 skid, blowing a 5-game division lead and falling to 43-36; they finished 86-76. Baltimore lost 9 of 11 from May into June, dropping from 1st place.

____________________

In a more personal vein, here’s the wrap to Joe Sheehan’s coverage of Johan‘s no-hitter:

“Santana has come through surgery with both the physical ability and the skill adjustments to be the Mets’ ace for the rest of his time in New York.”

Flash forward: [Sigh…] Johan made 10 starts after the no-no, going 3-7 with a [gulp] 8.27 ERA and .964 OPS. He went out for the year in August with back inflammation, leaving a trail of five straight starts yielding 6+ runs. Just once before had he ever given 6+ runs in even two straight starts.

I’m not really poking fun at Joe Sheehan; I’m sure my own remarks at the time were even more optimistic. But the lesson is: If a pitcher’s been out for a year after surgery, give him a full season before you predict his future.

____________________

Our last one is kind of intriguing. A poll of MLB players published in that June 11 issue asked:

“Who is the most overrated pitcher in the game?”
— The winner: 
C.J. Wilson.

I don’t know when the poll was done, but at press time Wilson had a 2.54 ERA, which he trimmed to 2.43 by the All-Star break. In 2011, he had a 2.94 ERA, 150 ERA+ and 206 strikeouts. And in 2010, his first year as a starter, he went 15-8, 3.35.

“Overrated”?

True, it only took 14% of the vote to “win” that survey, but it still surprised me.

Flash forward: Score one for the electorate. Wilson’s second half saw a 4-5 record and 5.54 ERA.

I’m just guessing, but maybe the voters were reacting to his new Angels contract (5 years, $75 million) — which some folks thought excessive at the time, though you’d hardly think so now — and/or his 2011 postseason (0-3 with a 5.79 ERA and no Quality Starts in 5 tries).

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Dalton Mack
Editor
11 years ago

Wish I had a relevant baseball comment to make, but I’m loving the Moody Blues reference!

danny c
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

June 11th the A’s were on the threshold of a dream!

Bryan O'Connor
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Just commenting because Every Good Blogger Deserves Feedback.

Tmckelv
Tmckelv
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I definitely need to brush up on my Moody Blues. I only got the last reference (#25).

Hartvig
Hartvig
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I have to admit that the first time I saw the first comment I went back and reread the entire article twice- first quickly, then more slowly- trying to find the reference. I wasn’t until I had given up and gone to another website on a different tab that I finally figured it out.

bstar
bstar
11 years ago

Well, at least there’s someone out there who’s found a good use for his ESPN magazines. Color me jealous…

bstar
bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I got a subscription as a gift for X-Mas last year and, yeah, the less said the better. This same person informed me this weekend during our belated X-Mas celebration that she’d re-upped my brother and I’s subscription for another year.

I think you can imagine our faked response.(also, no offense to anyone who enjoys this publication.)

bstar
bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I think feelings would be hurt if something was said, so I’ll keep taking mine to my doctor’s office, which really seems the perfect setting for this rag.

Hartvig
Hartvig
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Although I haven’t regularly read SI for probably 20 years at least there was a time when they had some pretty decent writers and even occasionally had some in-depth analysis of some of the more complicated issues surrounding sports. On the other hand all I have seen of ESPN was when a colleague at work would occasionally bring in his copy when he was done with it a few years ago plus maybe waiting to get my haircut or something. It was so choppy and over the top that after a couple of minutes of attempting to read it I… Read more »

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago
Reply to  bstar

I begged ESPN asking to not send me the magazine. I get it automatically by having an “insider” account. I even offered to pay more money to not have the magazine sent to me. I’ve never read a single article in it. When it arrives every month, I take it from my mailbox, walk into my home, and chuck it straight into the trash. Lousy design, lousy articles.

no statistician but
no statistician but
11 years ago

Kind of reminds one of comments on this site around that time on Konerko and a little earlier on Pujols. It’s a long season.

Hartvig
Hartvig
11 years ago

I have to admit that fairly well along into the season I not only felt that would the A’s be bad but epically bad possibly even historically bad. Even thru much of their hot streak I believed it was just some sort of a fluke and that before the season was over that they would come crashing back down to reality.

But even I knew that even after Santana threw his no-no that it was foolhardy to call him all the way back.

Hartvig
Hartvig
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Not to mention that probably your most highly regarded everyday player (Suzuki) would put up an OPS+ of 49 when he still was with your team, that your most promising already-established young player (Weeks) would flop at the plate (OPS+ 70), that your once highly regarded not-quite-but-almost-a-rookie slugger (Carter) would hit .239. that your most successful reclamation project from the year before (McCarthy) would be lost to you for almost half of the season and that he would be replaced by a journeyman minor-league pitcher (Blackley) who last pitched in the majors- briefly and unsuccessfully- 5 years prior, that BRANDON… Read more »

Bryan O'Connor
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Hartvig

Check out these Preseason ZIPS Projections. 32 A’s batters included, one with a projected OPS+ over 100- Cespedes at 101. Pitching looked better, but Anderson, McCarthy, and Braden were supposed to carry the rotation, while Parker and Colon projected below average. I guess that’s why they play the games.

RJ
RJ
11 years ago

Apropos of prediction, has anyone read Nate Silver’s book? I’m about halfway through it now and it’s quite a good read. The section on baseball won’t be massively illuminating to anyone here, but it’s all interesting nevertheless.

bstar
bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I like Sheehan and read this earlier today also, but doesn’t the 70s pitcher usage have a lot to do with a trend occurring across all of baseball and the fact that this particular decade featured a glut of Hall of Fame pitchers in their prime? Niekro, Carlton, Seaver, Perry, Jenkins, Catfish, Palmer, Blyleven, Sutton, Ryan, etc. You can quibble with my usage of “prime” and the particular years involved, but the point stands. And we haven’t even talked about Rick Reuschel, Wilbur Wood, Vida Blue, etc. I think drawing any sort of analogy between steroids and amphetamines remains a… Read more »

bstar
bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Reply to devil’s advocate: if Billy Martin had managed in the ’90s, would he have asked Andy Pettitte to pitch 300 innings?

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Yes. Seriously, I think the question is would he be allowed to do that, or could he do that. When Martin managed in the 70s, teams were using a modified 4-man rotation, having a fifth starter available, but not always slotting the #5 as part of the regular rotation. The #1 pitchers (I’m talking guys like Catfish Hunter and Jim Palmer and Ferguson Jenkins) were going to start just about every 4th games, leading to 38-41 starts. Martin especially liked having one guy who he could count on to go out and have a complete game, even if he had… Read more »

bstar
bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  bstar

I don’t know, Mike. The last 300 IP season was by Steve Carlton in 1980. I don’t think we’ll ever see another unless something drastically shifts. Times have changed.

Jim Bouldin
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Review:

Complete nonsense. No comparison between the two types of drugs.

Whatsoever.

Insert Name Here
Insert Name Here
11 years ago
Reply to  Jim Bouldin

I agree, Jim. If the enhancement levels of amphetamines were near the enhancement levels of steroids (or higher) then they would still be a problem, considering that, unlike ‘roids, amphetamines were never really tracked down by the league.

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

JA, yes, your take is correct. They’ve been transitioning over from their own posting system to one integrated with FaceBook. While ESPN’s has been one of the more agressive implementations, it’s not unusual at all nowadays to try and comment on stories on different sites and be pushed to log in through FaceBook. I find the whole process offensive. For one, it will default to automatically posting your comment on your FaceBook wall, so everyone of your friends and business acquaintances will see it. Sometimes this is fine, sometimes it is not. Even worse, you need to remain signed in… Read more »

Insert Name Here
Insert Name Here
11 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

Allow me to play devil’s advocate here (sort of): Actually, even if you log out of Facebook, they can still track you (unless you switch browsers or delete all cookies). Although this has been a rumor for a while, the company recently confirmed so to the Wall Street Journal: http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2011/09/26/facebook-defends-getting-data-from-logged-out-users/ So apparently, you might be just as well off staying logged in, since then at least your comments on ESPN and other FB-integrated sites stay up, although I don’t comment at FB-integrated sites . Also, I’m not sure what you mean by “monetizing your life”. Facebook costs nothing (and never… Read more »

bstar
bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I’ve had this same problem on Joe Posnanski’s site. I can’t post a comment because I don’t have a Facebook or Twitter account.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Resistance is futile!!! Google is now doing the same sorts of things with Google+

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324731304578193781852024980.html

bstar
bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

We hates it, Ed, hates it.

Jason Z
11 years ago

My wife and I have not and will not ever join Facebook.

We laugh at Facebook and its users from way above on
our high moral ground.

Mike L
Mike L
11 years ago

If anyone is interested, a story about Joe Tinker’s grandson in the New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/pages/sports/baseball/index.html

fireworks
fireworks
11 years ago

JA, I do the same thing. My neighbor gets SI (I haven’t had a subscription since I was a teen–I had a brief ESPN The Magazine subscription as an adult) and gives us all of the issues when she is done with them so I end up reading stories several months later.

I noticed the very same thing about that Oakland article a month or so ago.