Cy-onara, Brandon … Say it ain’t so, Chris!

The usually hopeful time between Super Bowl and “pitchers & catchers” brought a double dose of sad news from NL Cy Young Award winners.

Brandon Webb is retiring, nearly four years since he last pitched in the majors. Webb becomes the 27th modern pitcher to retire with 80+ wins before age 30, but none thereafter — and arguably the best of that bunch, based on WAR per 250 innings:

 

80+ wins before age 30 / No wins in rest of career

Pitcher WAR/
250 IP
WAR IP ERA+ W-L G GS CG Years
1) Brandon Webb 6.0 31.7 1315.2 143 87-62 198 197 15 2003-2008
2) Noodles Hahn 5.3 29.9 1409.0 135 91-66 166 160 151 1901-1906
3) Smoky Joe Wood 4.9 28.3 1432.1 149 117-57 224 158 121 1908-1919
4) Jim Maloney 4.6 33.5 1802.0 119 134-80 282 255 74 1960-1969
5) Ray Collins 4.1 21.7 1336.0 116 84-62 199 151 90 1909-1915
6) Reb Russell 3.9 19.9 1291.2 121 80-59 241 148 81 1913-1918
7) Don Wilson 3.7 25.8 1748.1 109 104-92 266 245 78 1966-1974
8) Gary Nolan 3.6 23.9 1674.2 117 110-70 250 247 45 1967-1977
9) Mark Mulder 3.5 18.2 1312.1 106 103-60 202 202 25 2000-2007
10) Jim Scott 3.4 26.1 1892.0 121 107-114 317 226 123 1909-1917
11) Jim Shaw 2.7 17.5 1600.1 99 84-98 287 194 96 1913-1921
12) Don Gullett 2.7 15.0 1390.0 113 109-50 266 186 44 1970-1978
13) Jim Merritt 2.5 14.2 1446.2 99 81-86 266 191 56 1965-1973
14) Lefty Williams 2.4 11.6 1186.0 99 82-48 189 152 80 1913-1920
15) Ralph Branca 2.4 14.3 1482.0 104 88-68 321 188 71 1944-1954
16) Willie Mitchell 2.4 15.7 1632.0 104 83-92 276 190 93 1909-1919
17) Denny McLain 2.4 18.0 1886.0 101 131-91 280 264 105 1963-1972
18) Carl Lundgren 2.4 12.5 1322.0 112 91-55 179 149 125 1902-1909
19) Erskine Mayer 2.1 12.1 1427.0 99 91-70 245 164 93 1912-1919
20) Tom Seaton 1.9 10.2 1340.0 103 92-65 231 155 90 1912-1917
21) Pete Donohue 1.8 15.3 2083.0 104 134-116 334 264 137 1921-1930
22) Tom Brewer 1.8 11.0 1509.1 104 91-82 241 217 75 1954-1961
23) Art Houtteman 1.6 9.7 1555.0 99 87-91 325 181 78 1945-1957
24) Bob Rhoads 1.4 9.6 1691.2 100 97-82 218 185 154 1902-1909
25) Larry Christenson 1.4 7.6 1402.2 99 83-71 243 220 27 1973-1983
26) Pol Perritt 1.1 6.7 1469.2 95 92-78 256 177 93 1912-1921
27) Frank Owen 0.9 5.0 1368.1 100 82-67 194 155 119 1901-1909

(Stats are since 1901 and through age 29.)

Webb and McLain are the only Cy Young Award or MVP winners on this list. (Smoky Joe Wood might have won such an award in 1912, had one existed.) Webb won the Cy Young in 2006, then finished 2nd in 2007 (when he tossed 42 straight scoreless innings) and again in 2008. I believe that Webb, Fergie Jenkins and Warren Spahn are the only one-time CYA winners who also finished 2nd twice (thrice for Spahnie).

Webb’s 31.7 WAR in his first 6 years ranks 16th in modern history. And only Webb, Hideo NomoTom Seaver and Don Sutton began their careers with 6 years of at least 160 strikeoutsTim Lincecum can join that club this year.

Here’s another list: Pitchers with 20+ WAR through age 29 and less than 1 WAR thereafter. Once again, stats are since 1901 and through age 29 again, this time sorted by WAR:

20+ WAR before age 30 / Less than 1 WAR in rest of career

Pitcher WAR/
250 IP
WAR IP ERA+ W-L G GS CG Years
1) Wes Ferrell 4.9 47.2 2406.2 123 175-115 338 291 215 1927-1937
2) Dizzy Dean 5.5 41.6 1908.1 133 147-80 305 219 151 1930-1939
3) Sam McDowell 4.3 39.1 2274.0 115 132-117 364 320 101 1961-1972
4) Jim Maloney 4.6 33.5 1802.0 119 134-80 282 255 74 1960-1969
5) Dutch Leonard 4.1 33.1 2015.0 118 125-107 304 248 140 1913-1921
6) Jose Rijo 4.7 32.4 1717.0 124 106-83 318 246 22 1984-1994
7) Larry Dierker 3.5 31.9 2294.1 104 137-117 345 320 106 1964-1976
8) Brandon Webb 6.0 31.7 1315.2 143 87-62 198 197 15 2003-2008
9) Dean Chance 3.9 31.7 2057.2 120 124-109 375 280 83 1961-1970
10) Noodles Hahn 5.3 29.9 1409.0 135 91-66 166 160 151 1901-1906
11) Johnny Antonelli 4.1 29.6 1821.1 122 119-99 316 251 101 1948-1959
12) Willis Hudlin 3.5 28.4 2024.1 108 125-116 353 251 126 1926-1935
13) Smoky Joe Wood 4.9 28.3 1432.1 149 117-57 224 158 121 1908-1919
14) Jim Scott 3.4 26.1 1892.0 121 107-114 317 226 123 1909-1917
15) Don Wilson 3.7 25.8 1748.1 109 104-92 266 245 78 1966-1974
16) Ken Holtzman 2.7 25.3 2360.2 111 151-124 348 336 108 1965-1975
17) Ewell Blackwell 4.9 25.2 1297.1 121 80-77 226 165 69 1942-1952
18) Mario Soto 3.9 25.2 1611.2 111 94-83 277 204 69 1977-1986
19) Alex Fernandez 3.7 25.1 1708.0 115 103-83 255 253 33 1990-1999
20) Johnny Podres 3.6 24.7 1692.2 111 115-84 299 252 62 1953-1962
21) Ben Sheets 4.2 24.1 1428.0 115 86-83 221 221 18 2001-2008
22) Gary Nolan 3.6 23.9 1674.2 117 110-70 250 247 45 1967-1977
23) Ismael Valdez 3.7 23.8 1606.2 107 88-94 277 250 12 1994-2003
24) Ray Collins 4.1 21.7 1336.0 116 84-62 199 151 90 1909-1915
25) Dave Righetti 5.3 21.5 1014.2 128 71-54 414 76 13 1979-1988
26) Frank Sullivan 4.0 21.5 1351.2 128 84-64 212 179 68 1953-1959
27) Carl Weilman 4.0 21.4 1337.2 119 75-80 209 155 92 1912-1919
28) Orval Overall 3.6 21.0 1467.1 125 104-66 207 173 127 1905-1910
29) Pedro Ramos 2.4 20.4 2085.0 96 105-142 412 267 73 1955-1964
30) George McQuillan 4.0 20.2 1278.2 116 72-68 208 141 90 1907-1914
31) Dick Ellsworth 2.4 20.0 2081.2 100 112-133 353 309 87 1958-1969

____________________

Another Cy of Disappointment

The other cleat was dropped by Chris Carpenter. The 2005 CYA winner is likely out for the coming season — and maybe done for good — with a recurrence of the nerve problem that limited him to six games last year. (Three of those starts came in the postseason; is there another pitcher with 3+ postseason starts and no more than that in the regular year? Or no regular-season wins?)

Carpenter is 95-44 with St. Louis, and holds franchise records with a 133 ERA+ (tied with three from the ’40s dynasty), a .683 winning percentage, and 10 postseason wins. He’s the only pitcher since Bob Gibson to notch 20+ WAR as a Cardinal. (Redbirds fans expect to see Adam Wainwright join that club this season.)

In 18 postseason starts, Carpenter is 10-4 with a 3.00 ERA, and his team is 13-5. His best was probably a 3-hit, 1-0 road shutout against his ex-teammate, Roy Halladay, in the 2011 first-round clincher (the game where Ryan Howard blew out his Achilles). In the only Cardinals postseason shutout since 1987, Carpenter walked none and let just 2 runners past 1st base. He followed that up with three strong starts in the World Series, including game 7. He’s the only pitcher since Curt Schilling in 2001 with 3 Quality Starts in a World Series.

It looks grim for Carpenter, but if he does try a comeback, he certainly knows the drill. After missing all of 2003 — his career record was then 49-50 with a 4.83 ERA — Carpenter in the next three years went 51-18 with a 3.10 ERA, winning one CYA and placing 3rd when Webb won; he was 2nd in NL wins and 5th in WAR in that span. Then came a 2007 Opening Day injury (two years before Webb’s similar fate) that cost him almost two full seasons — whereupon he roared back to win the 2009 ERA crown, coming thisclose to another Cy despite missing a month.

P.S. Surprised? Out of 121 modern pitchers who logged 20+ WAR in their 30s, over 40% had (like Carpenter) less than 10 WAR through age 29, including seven who didn’t even pitch in their 20s.

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Steven
Steven
11 years ago

The Reds had their share of pitchers on that list. Maloney, Nolan, Merritt and Gullett were all members of the 1970 pennant winners. Wayne Simpson, who was nearly unbeatable in the first half of that year, was another pitcher with a substantially abbreviated career.

Baltimorechop
Baltimorechop
11 years ago
Reply to  Steven

Also Noodles Hahn.

The above list (being modern) is from 1901 onward. I would like to throw out that if you give Noodles 1899 & 1900, his war goes to 44 even bWar, pitching.

Paul E
Paul E
11 years ago
Reply to  Steven

Yeah, Larry Shepherd was tougher on “arms” than a liberal congressman 🙁

Steven
Steven
11 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

Shortly thereafter, Sparky Anderson started earning the nickname, “Captain Hook,” beginning the decline of the Complete Game.

bstar
bstar
11 years ago

I can see a lot of similarities between Brandon Webb and another guy from the previous decade who seemed destined for the Hall of Fame after his first six years: Roy Oswalt. Look at the numbers:

B Webb 2003-2008 31.7 WAR / 142 ERA+ / 1 Cy Young, three top-2 finishes
Oswalt 2001-2006 28.8 WAR / 143 ERA+ / 5 top-5 Cy Young finishes

Oswalt needs to recharge his career if he’s going to end up a worthy Hall candidate.

I wouldn’t be surprised at all to hear Chris Carpenter say he might attempt another comeback.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I tend to group Oswalt and Tim Hudson together, though Hudson has pulled ahead a bit in the past year or two. They’ve both had fine careers but tend to get overlooked and I have a feeling neither will draw much HOF support. Combined they have 13 top ten WAR finishes but no Cy Youngs. So I have a feeling they’ll be viewed as “not dominant enough”. Oswalt did lead the NL in pitcher WAR in 2007 but it was the lowest NL leading pitcher WAR since Gooden in 1984 (though Kershaw had a lower figure last year).

RJ
RJ
11 years ago

That 2009 Cy Young that Carpenter didn’t quite win was almost certainly Adam Wainwright’s fault. Faced with a straight choice between the W-L records and ERAs of Carpenter and Lincecum, I’m sure the voters would have plumped for Carpenter easily. Wainwright’s 19 wins were a complicating factor.

Also JA, Lincecum had only 150 Ks in his first year (at a healthy 9.2 K/9 mind) so unless you meant to say 150 instead of 160, he can’t join the Webb/Nomo/Seaver/Sutton club.

Tim Pea
Tim Pea
11 years ago

Gotta give baseball writers their due, they have been perusing the PED users hard! Like to see this same fervor in political reporting.

Bryan O'Connor
Editor
11 years ago

Two things came to mind here: First, I’ve been fascinated by Noodles Hahn for the last few months, but I hadn’t noticed there was a modern Noodles right under our noses. Now that he’s retired, can we call him Noodles Webb.

Second, someone gave Justin Verlander a first place Cy Young vote in 2009.
Verlander was actually a great candidate from a fielding-independent standpoint (3.45 ERA, 2.80 FIP in 240 innings, 8.3 fWAR). Then again, this is the year Greinke had a 2.16 ERA and a 2.33 FIP in 229 1/3 innings and 9.3 fWAR. Wins.

Doug
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Also, Phil Niekro (8.6) on the 1977 Braves (7.6).

Doug
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Here’s another one, John.

Irv Young of the 1905 Boston Beaneaters: 8.8, Whole team: 8.1

Irv was a rookie that season.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

In 1950 Ned Garver of the Browns had a WAR of 7.1. The combined offensive and pitching WARs for the team added up to 6.3.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Thought Steve Carlton (’72) would qualify but his 11.7 WAR is less than the team total of 15.1.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Got one! Bullet Joe Bush on the 1916 A’s. 5.5 WAR vs. a team WAR of 3.0. Oddly, position player Amos Strunk (5.1 WAR) also beat the team total. And Wally Schang (2.8) and Stuffy McInnis (2.1) came close. Those four must have been miserable playing with their teammates.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago

Garver also did it for the 1951 Browns, 5.3 vs. 1.7.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago

Actually 19 of the 20 pitchers for the 2003 Tigers qualify (poor Jeremy Bonderman!). Total team WAR was -0.9 and only Bonderman has a WAR lower than that among the pitchers.

mosc
mosc
11 years ago

19! pitchers. Wow, that’s amazingly bad offense.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago

The 2003 Tigers’ pitchers clocked in at -2.8.
Offense, 1.9

Their 2nd best player, after Dmitri Young (3.1), was…….

Warren Morris (1.5)

…who was playing in his final season, and raked this line:
.272 .316 .373 .689 87

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago

Alan Trammell used 131 different batting orders.
Unfortunately, 103 of them featured Bobby Higginson as his #3 hitter:

.235 .320 .369 .689 88

leatherman
11 years ago

Francisco Rodriguez, although not a starter, had 5 postseason wins in 2002 before getting his first career regular season win in 2003. In the 2002 regular season, he pitched in 5 games for 5.2 innings (striking out 13 of the 21 batters he faced), but appeared in 11 postseason games for 18.2 innings (striking out 28 of the 70 batters he faced).

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

In 1952 Joe Black of the Dodgers started 3 games in the WS and just 2 during the regular season. He was 1-2 in the WS and 1-1 during the regular season. He relieved 54 times during the regular season. The starts were in his final 2 appearances.

Brent
Brent
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I am pretty sure I brought this up at the time that Carpenter won against the Nationals in the playoffs, but Virgil (Fire) Trucks only started one game in 1945 (I would guess without looking he was in the military), then started two games against the Cubs in the WS (winning one of them, a complete game 4-1 victory in game 2)

mosc
mosc
11 years ago

Yadier not having 20 WAR yet tells you all you need to know about how fairly dWAR works…

mosc
mosc
11 years ago
Reply to  mosc

Ah, I see now that the comment was related to PITCHERS only with 20 WAR. Of course Puhols and many other hitters shattered that. Yadier’s 19.5 WAR aside…

mosc
mosc
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Yes, I think dwar slights him but more to the point all catchers. Why I chose to even bring up this point though was in error for this particular thread.

I think my mental dWAR calculation is different in two major ways
1) The positional adjustments are not right
2) The range of values from best to worst players at a given position is often too large

Sorry for the side track.

Doug
Editor
11 years ago

Re: Fergie and Spahn with one CYA and two times in second

Quite a few have a first, second and third, incl. Catfish, Guidry, Valenzuela, Verlander, Carpenter.