Derek Jeter, Defense and Championships

While not much remarked upon, in 2012 the Yankees completed their eighth consecutive season with a left-side infield of Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. At this juncture, it seems likely it will be nine seasons running with this trio in 2013. In that time, the Yankees have claimed just a single pennant, which was cashed in for a WS championship in 2009. Despite that pennant drought (by Yankee standards), the Yankees did make the playoffs in all but one of those eight seasons.

This Yankee trio is in the same class for longevity as the 1970s Dodgers who famously featured Davey Lopes, Bill Russell and Ron Cey (and Steve Garvey at 1B) from 1973 to 1981, a period during which the Dodgers claimed four pennants, but only one World Series title.

Usually when a team maintains the same infield year in and year out, defense is at least part of the reason why. But, that hasn’t been the case for the Yankees. After the jump, I’ll explore this topic in a bit more depth.

It’s no secret to any regular readers of this site that Derek Jeter is not in the lineup for his defense. Even a casual fan will probably notice that Jeter seems unusually limited in his range, both to his left and his right. I live on the West Coast and don’t see a great deal of the Yankees, but even in the 10 or 15 games I may see during a season, I’m struck by how often a ball that seems to be hit where you’d expect a shortstop to be able to make a play often results in Jeter taking a step or two towards the ball and then pulling up, as the ball bounces through to the outfield, or is even fielded by the 2nd or 3rd baseman (though, usually, without the opportunity to make a play for an out). Also common to see, especially on plays to his right, is Jeter getting to the ball but not getting off a throw.

So, what does that look like in fielding statistics? Let’s start with WAR Fielding Runs, available on Baseball-Reference.com (called Rfield when running a P-I query, but Rdrs in the Fielding Stats section of B-R player pages). This metric is derived from Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), a relatively new defensive metric that combines observational data for a variety of defensive plays, including fielding batted balls (of course), but also fielding bunts, backing up throws, cut-offs and the like.  WAR Fielding Runs is a representation of the estimated number of runs the fielder has saved or cost his team. Here is how Jeter has fared since 2005.

Rk Player Rfield Year Age Tm
1 Adam Everett 34 2006 29 HOU
2 Jack Wilson 32 2005 27 PIT
3 Troy Tulowitzki 31 2007 22 COL
4 Alex Gonzalez 27 2010 33 TOT
5 Clint Barmes 26 2006 27 COL
6 Adam Everett 25 2005 28 HOU
7 Rafael Furcal 24 2005 27 ATL
8 Alexei Ramirez 20 2010 28 CHW
9 Troy Tulowitzki 19 2010 25 COL
10 Neifi Perez 19 2005 32 CHC
67 Derek Jeter 3 2009 35 NYY
130 Derek Jeter -9 2010 36 NYY
134 Derek Jeter -10 2008 34 NYY
144 Derek Jeter -15 2011 37 NYY
147 Derek Jeter -16 2006 32 NYY
149 Derek Jeter -18 2012 38 NYY
151 Hanley Ramirez -19 2010 26 FLA
152 Brendan Harris -20 2007 26 TBD
153 Angel Berroa -21 2005 25 KCR
154 Felipe Lopez -23 2006 26 TOT
155 Derek Jeter -24 2007 33 NYY
156 Yuniesky Betancourt -27 2010 28 KCR
157 Derek Jeter -27 2005 31 NYY
158 Hanley Ramirez -28 2007 23 FLA
159 Orlando Cabrera -29 2009 34 TOT
160 Michael Young -32 2005 28 TEX
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/15/2013.

This list is showing the best and worst 10 Rfield scores of the past 8 seasons for shortstops who qualified for the batting title, plus Derek Jeter’s results. Thus, there are 160 such seasons, with Jeter having two of the 10 worst scores, and 7 of the 31 lowest marks. He had one season of positive Rfield in 2009, perhaps not coincidentally the Yankees championship season.

Prior to consistent compilation of observational data such as that used for DRS, defensive metrics focused primarily on a player’s fielding chances. Total Zone Runs (TZR), used in B-R’s WAR Fielding Runs prior to 2003 (shown as Rtot in the Fielding Stats section of B-R player pages) , compares a player to a theoretical average player, but without regard to whether that player actually had as many fielding opportunities as the average player. Thus, a player may score poorly or very well with TZR because he had an unusually low or high number of opportunities. Such variations from “average” could be due to a variety of factors including the pitching staff’s handedness, its GB/FB  tendences or even whether it was an unusually low or high strikeout staff. Other factors may include whether opponents faced most often were mostly left or right-handed batting teams, which in turn may also be influenced by the pitching staff’s predominant handedness and also by peculiarities of the home field that would influence batting approaches. Thus, there are valid reasons to suppose that TZR may not actually be providing a true picture of a particular player’s fielding skill.

Another observational fielding measure available for the past 11 seasons is Ultimate Zone Runs or UZR. The idea behind UZR is not to compare players to a theoretical average player but, rather, to assess the level of success a player had with the fielding opportunities presented to him, and compare that to the level of success other players at the same position had with their fielding opportunities. Since 2002, all batted balls in play have been assigned a zone number indicating in what part of the field the ball was hit. Different zones are deemed to belong to certain fielding positions and, thus, all balls hit to a fielding position’s zones are considered fielding opportunities (as opposed to fielding chances) for the position. The proportion of these actual opportunities that are converted into outs, for all players at a position, becomes the “average” above or below which a player is scored. Thus, there’s no longer any basis for saying “yeah, but …” when arguing about the merits of a player and why that player does well or poorly using a particular metric. UZR tells you how well a player did in his own context versus other players at the same position in their own contexts. So, here’s how Jeter has fared under UZR since 2005.

Rk Player UZR Year Age Tm
1 Adam Everett 25.2 2006 29 HOU
2 Omar Vizquel 23.1 2007 40 SFG
3 Orlando Cabrera 19.6 2005 30 LAA
4 Tony Pena 15.3 2007 26 KCR
5 Troy Tulowitzki 15.2 2007 22 COL
6 Brendan Ryan 14.7 2012 30 SEA
7 Clint Barmes 14.4 2012 33 PIT
8 Jack Wilson 14.4 2005 27 PIT
9 Orlando Cabrera 14.3 2008 33 CHW
10 Adam Everett 13.2 2005 28 HOU
43 Derek Jeter 6.4 2009 35 NYY
91 Derek Jeter -0.3 2008 34 NYY
120 Derek Jeter -4.7 2010 36 NYY
127 Derek Jeter -6.5 2011 37 NYY
129 Derek Jeter -7.3 2006 32 NYY
151 Orlando Cabrera -13.6 2009 34 TOT
152 Russ Adams -13.6 2005 24 TOR
153 Felipe Lopez -14.7 2006 26 TOT
154 Derek Jeter -14.9 2005 31 NYY
155 Derek Jeter -15.2 2012 38 NYY
156 Stephen Drew -15.8 2008 25 ARI
157 Yuniesky Betancourt -17.9 2009 33 TOT
158 Derek Jeter -17.9 2007 33 NYY
159 Hanley Ramirez -20.5 2007 23 FLA
160 Michael Young -23.2 2005 28 TEX
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: Fangraphs.com
Generated 2/15/2013.

To get the same number of 160 seasons, I’ve used the top 160 season innings totals from the data available at Fangraphs.com. This corresponds to the players compiling 1030 or more innings (about 115 games) at shortstop in a season since 2005. While these may not be exactly the same player seasons as used with the B-R data, they will be very close to the same. As before, these displayed seasons are the best and worst 10 UZR scores, plus Derek Jeter’s results.

So, aside from an extra bottom 10 placement for Jeter, UZR is a bit more generous than Rfield, but only a bit. Notice that Orlando Cabrera dropped from 9th best to 10th worst in consecutive seasons, aged 33 and 34. Just shows that losing a fraction of a step can be all it takes to make a big difference in results.

Now you may be saying “Why am I picking on Derek Jeter?”, to which my answer is simply the Jeter is the most obvious place to start in evaluating the Yankees infield defense. For some perspective on Jeter, consider:

  • Jeter ranks lowest among all players since 1901 at -231 career WAR fielding runs. Jeter passed former teammate Gary Sheffield early in the 2011 season and is the only player at or below the -200 mark.
  • Jeter has 13 seasons with Rfield scores of -10 or less. Former teammates Sheffield and Bernie Williams rank 2nd and 3rd with 10 and 8 seasons, respectively.
  • In his 18 seasons, Derek has had positive Rfield scores only 3 times, in 1998, 2004 and 2009. Fangraphs has him with only two seasons (2002, 2009) with positive UZR scores.

However, Jeter is just the place to start. Lets look at his teammates, Cano and Rodriguez. I have read hypotheses that, conscious of Jeter’s limited range, his adjacent fielders may shade just a bit closer to Jeter to possibly get to some balls that Jeter can’t reach. If that is true, possibly we would see evidence in the fielding results for Cano and Rodriguez. Let’s see.

Here are A-Rod’s fielding results playing 3rd base next to Jeter.

Year Tm Age Pos ▴ G GS CG Inn Ch PO A E DP Fld% Rtot Rdrs RF/9 lgFld% lgRF9
2004 NYY 28 3B 155 155 147 1364.1 375 100 262 13 25 .965 3 14 2.39 .951 2.64
2005 NYY 29 3B 161 161 145 1384.2 415 115 288 12 26 .971 -10 0 2.62 .957 2.76
2006 NYY 30 3B 151 148 131 1287.2 382 96 262 24 24 .937 -12 -13 2.50 .960 2.85
2007 NYY 31 3B 154 154 130 1330.0 370 106 251 13 30 .965 0 -1 2.42 .957 2.63
2008 NYY 32 3B 131 131 112 1126.1 334 73 251 10 23 .970 -5 2 2.59 .958 2.74
2009 NYY 33 3B 116 113 90 974.1 275 66 200 9 17 .967 -9 -5 2.46 .957 2.68
2010 NYY 34 3B 124 122 98 1046.1 292 61 224 7 25 .976 -5 3 2.45 .956 2.64
2011 NYY 35 3B 89 87 68 762.0 225 54 165 6 13 .973 7 13 2.59 .954 2.62
2012 NYY 36 3B 81 81 76 709.1 184 57 119 8 13 .957 -6 -2 2.23 .952 2.60
9 Seasons 3B 1162 1152 997 9985.0 2852 728 2022 102 196 .964 -38 11 2.48 .956 2.69
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/16/2013.

Mostly better fielding percentages, but with reduced range factor compared to other third basemen, about one-quarter to one-third of a chance per 9 innings below league average. Fangraphs has Rodriguez with positive UZR only in 2004 and 2011.

What about Cano?

Year Tm Age Pos ▴ G GS CG Inn Ch PO A E DP Fld% Rtot Rdrs RF/9 lgFld% lgRF9
2005 NYY 22 2B 131 130 126 1142.2 666 258 391 17 77 .974 -6 -22 5.11 .983 4.96
2006 NYY 23 2B 118 115 107 1009.0 572 230 333 9 73 .984 9 -4 5.02 .986 4.92
2007 NYY 24 2B 159 157 156 1408.2 830 320 497 13 136 .984 15 23 5.22 .985 4.98
2008 NYY 25 2B 159 154 153 1376.2 800 305 482 13 103 .984 4 -12 5.15 .987 5.01
2009 NYY 26 2B 161 158 150 1399.2 744 308 424 12 96 .984 10 0 4.71 .986 4.76
2010 NYY 27 2B 158 157 153 1393.1 776 341 432 3 114 .996 2 16 4.99 .984 4.80
2011 NYY 28 2B 157 150 138 1340.0 777 323 444 10 97 .987 -1 1 5.15 .984 4.76
2012 NYY 29 2B 154 150 147 1343.1 726 285 435 6 92 .992 10 15 4.82 .983 4.63
8 Seasons 2B 1197 1171 1130 10413.1 5891 2370 3438 83 788 .986 43 17 5.02 .985 4.85
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/16/2013.

Again, very consistent results every year with Cano usually just a bit above league average range factor. However, Fangraphs has Cano with a cumulative -30.2 UZR with positive scores only in 2007 and 2012 (although he has not had a UZR score below -3.0 since 2008). This suggests that Cano is getting more balls hit his way than the majority of second basemen, but is not turning those opportunities into outs as often. So, if in fact it’s true that A-Rod and Cano are trying to help out Jeter by taking plays that Derek can’t, that tactic may actually be hurting their own defense by placing themselves in less than optimal fielding position.

Conclusion? While the Yankees have had impressive offensive results from their three left-side infielders, the same can’t be said for their defense. That has contributed to overall poor team defense for the Bombers in most recent seasons. Fangraphs has the Yankees at no better than 22nd in team UZR in any season from 2002 to 2008, including a 5 season run of 28th twice and 30th three times from 2002 to 2006. New York improved its ranking each year, from 25th in 2008 all the way up to 8th in 2011, before sliding back to 20th last season.

Here’s a table of those team UZR rankings since 2002. You can sort on any year to see the ordering for that season.

[table id=95 /]

 

Finally, it’s not just the infield that has hurt the Yankee defense in recent seasons. Here’s a list showing AL teams since 1961 with the most players compiling -10 WAR fielding runs or less.

Rk Year Tm #Matching
1 2004 New York Yankees 6 Miguel Cairo / Derek Jeter / Jorge Posada / Gary Sheffield / Bernie Williams / Enrique Wilson
2 2009 Kansas City Royals 5 Yuniesky Betancourt / Willie Bloomquist / Alberto Callaspo / Jose Guillen / Mark Teahen
3 2005 New York Yankees 5 Robinson Cano / Derek Jeter / Gary Sheffield / Bernie Williams / Tony Womack
4 1986 Seattle Mariners 5 Phil Bradley / Alvin Davis / John Moses / Ken Phelps / Danny Tartabull
5 1979 Oakland Athletics 5 Dave Chalk / Mike Edwards / Rickey Henderson / Dwayne Murphy / Rob Picciolo
6 2011 Minnesota Twins 4 Michael Cuddyer / Tsuyoshi Nishioka / Trevor Plouffe / Danny Valencia
7 2008 Detroit Tigers 4 Miguel Cabrera / Curtis Granderson / Carlos Guillen / Marcus Thames
8 2008 New York Yankees 4 Bobby Abreu / Robinson Cano / Jason Giambi / Derek Jeter
9 2006 New York Yankees 4 Jason Giambi / Derek Jeter / Alex Rodriguez / Bernie Williams
10 1998 Minnesota Twins 4 Marty Cordova / Otis Nixon / Alex Ochoa / Todd Walker
11 1996 Boston Red Sox 4 Jeff Frye / Reggie Jefferson / Troy O’Leary / Mike Stanley
12 1991 Seattle Mariners 4 Scott Bradley / Greg Briley / Jay Buhner / Henry Cotto
13 1988 California Angels 4 Tony Armas / Chili Davis / Jack Howell / Johnny Ray
14 1986 Milwaukee Brewers 4 Rob Deer / Ernie Riles / Dale Sveum / Robin Yount
15 1973 Chicago White Sox 4 Johnny Jeter / Pat Kelly / Eddie Leon / Jorge Orta
16 1965 Washington Senators 4 Ken Hamlin / Woodie Held / Frank Howard / Don Lock
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/16/2013.
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bstar
11 years ago

Doug, B-Ref uses DRS, not TZ, for Rfield after the changes last year. So Rfield = DRS runs post-2002, TZ runs 2002 and before. TZ is still available on B-Ref, if you want. It’s disguised as “Rtot” and is located in the standard fielding section of a player’s page. Rdrs is to the right of this column for comparison. DRS is even less of a fan of Jete’s defense than TZ. Here’s El Capitano’s numbers for the two metrics since 2002: Jeter DRS 2003-2012: -142 runs Jeter TZ 2003-2012: -64 runs So Jeter would only be -151 for his career… Read more »

bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

The tables for A-Rod and Cano are listing TZ numbers as well. Rtot = TZ runs. The Rdrs column that you omitted would be the choice that now counts as Rfield in rWAR. A-Rod is +11 since ’04 (big difference from -38 TZ) and Cano is +17 since ’05.

So DRS sees A-Rod as still a plus defender but doesn’t like Cano as much as TZ does.

Hartvig
Hartvig
11 years ago

I thought that perhaps the improvement from 2009 to 2011 could be at least partly attributable to the arrival of Mark Teixeira and it probably is, at least to some extent. While is Rfield numbers weren’t great by his own standards, they were light-years better than Jason Giambi’s although his numbers were somewhat mitigated by the presence of guys like Tino Martinez, Andy Phillips, Doug Mientkiewicz and others. Another thought was maybe Jorge Posada catching a lot fewer games but he still caught about 50% of the teams innings in ’09 & ’10. Plus they went back down again in… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
11 years ago

Good post, but it leaves you with a question or two. The Yankees have done ok on runs allowed, despite the inadequacy of their fielding. And they have won a lot of games in the regular season during these “dark years”, and their pythag largely supports that. So, does this mean that the Yankee model fails? And, if it doesn’t fail, does that call into question fielding stats, at least at to the precise way they affect the results? It seems to me you can’t have it both ways

John Autin
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Mike — One thing that helps the Yanks mitigate the defensive damage is having strikeout pitchers who don’t walk people. Last year they were #1 in AL SO/BB, #3 in SO/9.

Also, we sometimes take their offense for granted. They were #2 in AL R/G and in OPS+ last year, and #1 in OBP.

Many titles have been won by teams with bad defense, or bad pitching, or bad hitting. It doesn’t matter exactly where the run differential comes from.

GrandyMan
GrandyMan
11 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

I would think that just means that the Yankees’ pitching is better than indicated by ERA, ERA+, or any other statistic that doesn’t take defense into consideration. Also, I don’t see how pythagorean wins could expose a flaw with defensive statistics. If pythag is consistently a mismatch with actual results, then that just means the team is regularly over- or underperforming in high-leverage situations, which could be related to any aspect of the team. I, too, am skeptical of defensive statistics — having been a huge fan of Bernie Williams growing up, I can’t imagine he was as bad as… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
11 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Thanks John A and Grandyman. I’m not suggesting Jeter’s a good fielder-I know he’s not. I’m suggesting that there’s clearly more than one way to win games. Scoring more runs, and, having a proportionally greater difference (which would be measured by pythag) are one avenue to success. It’s not that pythag is correlated to fielding, it’s that it’s correlated to an expected return on the totality of a team’s offensive and defensive contributions, expressed through runs. So, to look at any team holistically, or any player, you look at total contributions. Yankees, as a team, score a lot and have… Read more »

bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Also, the Yankees’ overall defense is not as bad as suggested. We were really just focusing on three players, and DRS grades A-Rod and Cano out as good fielders. So it’s really just Jeter stinking up the joint. Brett Gardner led all of baseball in defense (at least according to UZR) for both 2010 and 2011, and Tex is no slouch at first base either. So, overall, I don’t think the Yanks are that bad defensively. In fact, the numbers suggest they are more of an average team than a bad one defensively, at least recently. 2009-2012 avg. UZR rank… Read more »

Andy
Admin
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Awesome, well-written, and thought-provoking, Doug. Well done.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago

Just for the record, for the years 2002 to 2012 the Yankees have a W-L record of 1070-711 which is 69 1/2 games better than the second place team, the Red Sox.They have allowed 8052 runs, 13th fewest in the ML and 4th fewest in the AL.

Tim Pea
Tim Pea
11 years ago

Nice. I was looking at the walk totals for a lot of the really good teams in the last 20 years. I noticed that really good NL teams, teams with around 100 or so wins or more, the pitchers walked about 2 to 3 times as many times as really bad teams like the Cubs of the past 2 years, or the Mets. The Bobby Cox teams pitchers drew a lot of walks.

John Autin
Editor
11 years ago

Using Total Zone, the 1996 Yankees were significantly worse than last year’s edition. And the 1999-2000 champs were no splendor on the grass, either.

no statistician but
no statistician but
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Just to get your word’s worth in.

Paul E
Paul E
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Regarding the Halo Effect, is there anyway someone out there in MIT-Land could calculate the level of media felatio and praise heaped upon this Jeter fellow as an inverse of his piss-poor fielding. I get the impression from all these websites (FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, B-Ref, etc…) that EVERYTHING is quantifiable. Maybe Nate Silver or that Cameron guy can figure that one out? On another note, I don’t believe Jeter’s fielding was any better from 1996-2004. I recall seeing an article in some magazine using something as basic as Range Factor or Total Zone and El Capitano had something like 4… Read more »

Chuck
Chuck
11 years ago

Ah, Jeter bashing.

True sign the new season is upon us.

deal
11 years ago

I have a Jeter Question if anyone is still on this thread. I think Buster Olney (maybe Kirkjian) noted that the 72 or 73 Bosox are the last tm to post a winning record with a 38+ yr old SS (Aparicio).

I was curious is there a way to find out how many teams have done it with a 37 year SS – Obviously the 2012 Yankees are in there, but are there others?

Thanks

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  deal

Here are some 38+ SS who played on a winning team (min. 100 games). I believe the list is complete.
Honus Wagner for the Pirates in 1912 and 1913.
Aparicio for the Red Sox in 1972 and 1973.
Larry Bowa for the Cubs in 1984.
Ozzie Smith for the Cards in 1993.

The 1984 Cubs had the most wins with 96.

There have been a bunch of 37 year old SS on winning teams including Pee Wee Reese, Dave Concepcion, Dave Bancroft and Ozzie Smith.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago

And Jeter is also a 38+ SS on a winning team in 2012.

Doug
Doug
11 years ago
Reply to  deal

Among qualifying shortstops aged 39 (Jeter’s age this season), only Aparicio (1973) and Wagner (1913) have played on a winning team.

For age 40 or older, no shortstop in a qualifying season has played for a winning team. At age 40-41, Rabbit Maranville played on a .500 and a winning Braves team (1932-33), but at 2nd base, having switched to that position after playing primarily at shortstop for 19 of the previous 20 seasons (he was the Pirates 2nd baseman in 1924, at age 32).

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago

Related to all this, the Yankees have averaged 97 wins a year over the past 17 seasons, doing so for a large chunk of those years with up-the-middle position players in Posada, Jeter and Williams more noted for bat than glove as they rated below-average defensively. Prior to the arrival of Cano, their 2B’men were also more bat than glove, led by the likes of Soriano. Simply stating the obvious for obvious reasons.

Doug
Doug
11 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

Mike,

I’m guessing you meant 18 seasons (1995-2012). In that time, the Yanks made the playoffs 17 times, with 7 pennants and 5 WS titles. Jeter, Williams, Posada and Cano are a collective -417 Rfield and -252 TZR.

The other 18 year dynasty (1947-64). 15 pennants and 10 WS titles. Berra, Mantle, McDougald and Rizzuto were a combined +174 TZR.

Mike L
Mike L
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug, swap out Berra and Mantle for Bernie and Posada, and maybe Jeter might have picked up a few more championships. We’ve beat the “Jeter Stinks” horse a fair amount.

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug, I purposely picked 1996 since that was Jeter’s rookie campaign and he’s been holding down SS since. Kind of fit with the headline of the posting! Now if we’re looking for the opening bookend for this dynastic run, certainly 1995 makes sense since that’s the first year they made the playoffs during this run. (The closing bookend is TBD, but it will come.) Yet, I’ve always believed that the Yankees current dynasty run began in 1994, but the strike buried that season in history. They had the best record in the AL, the largest lead of any division leader,… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
11 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

Jeter has an excellent shot at breaking the record for homers by a 39 year old SS – 5 by Eddie Joost