Riding a sudden wave of support near the end of the voting period, Barry Larkin edged out Paul Molitor by a single vote to become the 14th inductee into the Circle of Greats. More on Larkin and the voting after the jump.

I am almost certain that Barry Larkin has had more total bases in regular season games played at shortstop than any other shortstop in National League history, all the way back to 1876.

Total Bases in Games Played at Short, NL
1. Barry Larkin 3,496
[2. Honus Wagner approx. 3,300]
3. Jimmy Rollins 3,248
4. Ozzie Smith 3,072
5. Pee Wee Reese 2,922

Because game-by-game box score data for Honus Wagner’s career is not yet available, we can’t say exactly how many total bases Wagner had in the specific games in which he played shortstop, but we can estimate that number fairly well. Honus played short in 1,887 regular season games, out of his full career total of 2,777 National League regular season games played. So we know he played shortstop in 68% of his games. 68% of his career 4,870 total bases equals 3,309 total bases estimated for games he played at short.

We can refine that estimate a bit because we know that Wagner did not play any shortstop until 1901, his age 27 season. Through 1900, he had 944 total bases which we thus know for sure did not come in games he played at short. That narrows our area of uncertainty. Starting with 1901, the Dutchman played in 1,887 games at short out of a total of 2,298, or about 82% of his games. Applying that percentage to his 3,926 total bases from 1901 on produces an estimated 3,224 total bases in games at short. You can refine that same process even further and look at each of Wagner’s seasons separately by percentage of games played at short and total bases for each season. Using that season-by-season estimation method you get an estimated 3,268 total bases in games at short. At this point we can say it seems nearly certain that Wagner did not top Larkin’s 3,496 total bases in games at shortstop.

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After 49 ballots had been cast in the 1956 COG balloting round, and with what we now know would be only 17 more ballots to be counted, Paul Molitor had what seemed to be an insurmountable lead, having been named on 29 ballots to Larkin’s 19. At that point Molitor not only had a large lead, there was also no particular reason to think later votes would show a significantly different allocation. But somehow, of those last 17 ballots, 13 named Larkin, only 2 named Molitor and two named neither. I have no idea whether the switch to Larkin was just a strange random bunching of votes for one guy early and the other late or whether there was some actual cause for the switch, perhaps an argument that turned out to be particularly persuasive or some other group dynamic that turned the tide so dramatically. Theories are welcome.

In any event, Molitor will be back in the next round, as will his fellow newcomer to the ballot, Eddie Murray. Dale Murphy received some support, but fell a vote short of the number needed to stay on the ballot. Other notable developments:
–Tim Raines fell short of 10% of the vote, so Raines will be the one holdover candidate on the bubble in the next round.
–Robbie Alomar, who has been eligible in every COG round from the beginning, appeared on only one voter’s ballot this round. In past rounds he has appeared on as many as 24 and 25 ballots.
–The double play partners Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker again were tied with each other — each appearing on 18 ballots — just as they were last round.
As always, you can review the complete voting record for this past round at Google Docs. The link is here: 1956 COG Vote Tally

If you would like to review the history of the COG voting, a spreadsheet summary of the voting is here: COG Vote Summary , with a summary of the raw vote totals on Sheet 1 and a summary of the percentage totals on Sheet 2.

The Circle of Greats membership thus far:
Jeff Bagwell
Wade Boggs
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Rickey Henderson
Randy Johnson
Barry Larkin
Greg Maddux
Mike Mussina
Mike Piazza
Cal Ripken, Jr.
Curt Schilling
Frank Thomas
Larry Walker