Monthly Archives: May 2013

David Ortiz and getting better with age

On May 4, 2010, the Red Sox beat the Angels 5-1 on the strength of a 2-out, 4-run rally in the 8th inning that broke open what had been a tight pitchers’ duel between Ervin Santana and Jon Lester. Boston won that day despite a -0.418 WPA turned in by designated hitter David Ortiz, his fourth worst WPA score ever (his worst WPA game was also against Ervin Santana, in this 2009 contest). Here’s how David’s day went:

  • 1st inning: ended inning striking out with runners at 2nd and 3rd
  • 3rd inning: ended inning on double play groundout with runners at 1st and 2nd
  • 6th inning: led off inning striking out, on 3 pitches
  • 8th inning: grounded into double play with nobody out and bases loaded; no runs scored

At the conclusion of that debacle, Ortiz was riding a 4 for 34 skid, with a season slash of .149/.240/.358. Hardly the start he was looking for after a disappointing 2009 campaign that saw Ortiz hit just .238, his first full season since joining Boston in 2003 that he failed to hit 30 homers or drive in 100 runs. Whispers were that Big Papi was done – it was only a matter of time before the Sox cut him loose. Remember.

As with Mark Twain, rumors of Big Papi’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. In fact, Ortiz’s turnaround since that nadir just over 3 years ago has been nothing short of spectacular. More on the Ortiz miracle after the jump.
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Thursday game notes: East Coast bias edition!

Did the Mets play tonight? I was busy…. Anyway, our divisional hopscotch continues with the big uglies. Oh, and the very best wishes to KC’s new hitting coach.

Red Sox 9, @Phillies 2 (box): Like records, streaks are made to be broken. Jonathan Pettibone‘s career began with 7 starts of 5+ innings and 3 runs or less. A modest threshold, perhaps, but he’s the only Philly rook who can say that since at least 1916, and the club had won 6 of those 7. But the BoSox have roughed up righties this year (.818/.684 OPS split for RHP/LHP), and they wasted no time in their quest for a series split. Four Sox made the four-cornered pilgrimage to the pentagon in the top of the 1st, two on a big 2-out double by Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

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Evaluating How Catchers Control the Opposition’s Running Game – 2013 Edition

One of the toughest things to quantify in all of sports is a catcher’s value on defense. Their are so many responsibilities and subtle nuances that go into being a quality Major League backstop. The best of the best are able to deftly juggle the responsibilities of managing a pitching staff, framing borderline pitches, blocking pitches, holding base runners, throwing said runners out when they attempt to steal, and much, much more. Recently I’ve been doing some research into catching defense and I have been somewhat unsatisfied by both the traditional statistics (caught stealing %, passed balls, and so on) and by the advanced metrics (URZ and defensive runs saved). A few excellent studies in particular have been done to analyze a catcher’s ability to frame pitches, but otherwise most analysis is left to judgment. I’ve been compiling some of my own numbers relating to catchers controlling the base running game in order to gain a better understanding of who the best backstops in baseball really are, and I’d like to share some of my findings today.

The spreadsheet below contains catchers or catcher groupings from all 30 Major League teams. Twenty-five Major League teams have primarily used one catcher for at least 50% of their innings behind the plate while the five remaining clubs have worked out of a platoon scenario for one reason or another. For that reason I’ve examined those five clubs as a unit to examine whether or not those platoons are actually working on the defensive side of things.

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Tuesday game notes (yes, Tuesday): Westward, ho!

Our divisional theme heads west … and just like your morning paper, the scores from the coast come a day late.

@Dodgers 3, Angels 0 (box): Hyun-jin Ryu went past the 8th for the first time in America, and it felt so good, he just kept going, polishing off a 2-hit shutout with 7 Ks and no walks. It’s the Dodgers’ first individual shutout in their 94 games against the Angels, and was completed in 2 hours, 11 minutes.

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What Can Nerds Learn From Wedgies?

Yesterday, Mariners Manager Eric Wedge blamed sabermetrics, “for lack of a better term”, for Dustin Ackley’s failure to perform at the major league level.  From the linked mlb.com piece (skip to the bottom to read it yourself):

“It’s the new generation. It’s all this sabermetrics stuff, for lack of a better term, you know what I mean?” Wedge said. “People who haven’t played since they were 9 years old think they have it figured out. It gets in these kids’ heads.” Continue reading

Kansas City is Waging a War on Walks

After the first month of the 2013 season Royals’ GM Dayton Moore had to be feeling pretty darn good about himself. By the end of April an offseason full of risky moves in the pitching department and prospect department had begun to coalesce into one of the best rotations in baseball, leading Kansas City to a 14-10 record despite a struggling offense.

Unfortunately for those decked out in royal blue, things haven’t gone as smoothly in May. Tuesday’s 4-1 loss at the hands of the rival Cardinals was particularly bitter. Not only did it drop Kansas City’s record in May to a pathetic 7-18 on the month, the loss was also the Royals 10th straight at Kauffman Stadium, matching the franchise record set just one season ago. After spending much of the first month in 1st place in the AL Central, the Royals are now tied for last with the Twins, staring 7.5 games ahead at the Detroit Tigers.

To make matters worse, the offense, which was supposed to be the Royals’ calling card, has been a completely flop. The franchise ranks dead last in the AL in homers, 2nd to last in walks and slugging percentage, and 3rd to last in runs scored. The homers have been particularly hard to come by of late, with Kansas City hitting just 2 in their last 13 games. That’s not exactly the formula for playoff contention and it appears to stem from Kansas City’s quarter century long war on walks.

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Weekend game notes

Pirates 5, @Brewers 4: The Bucs have allowed 4 earned runs or less in 19 straight games, the longest such streak this year and their longest since 1970. Their May pitching stats look like some Cy Young seasons: 2.44 ERA in 210 IP, 199 Ks, 58 walks, 14 HRs and a 16-7 record. A 2-inning stint by Vin Mazzaro ran his scoreless string to 12.2 IP (plus stranding all 5 inherited). Jason Grilli converted his 20th straight save; he’s 5 saves ahead of any other Pirate after 50 games.

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