Circle of Greats 1949 Part 1 Results: Just Gwynn, Baby

It took Tony Gwynn 15 rounds of voting and more total appearances on voter ballots than any other player so far (he never appeared on fewer than 20% of the ballots in any round and topped 40% five times), but he has finally made it, as the 23rd player inducted into the High Heat Stats Circle of Greats.  More on Tony, and on the latest voting results, after the jump.
Batting average (BA) was one of the first, biggest and well-deserved statistical targets for criticism when sabermetrics first came to significant public attention thirty-plus years ago.  BA is far-surpassed by other ratios as a measure of overall run-scoring value.  But used purely as a way of characterizing the special traits of individual players, it still has its usefulness.  For example, no career begun and completed since, say, the attack on Pearl Harbor has been nearly as successful as Tony Gwynn’s in terms of base hit frequency.

Top 5 Career Batting Averages (min. 3,000 PAs), Players With Careers Falling Entirely within 1942-2012 Period:
1. Tony Gwynn .338
2. Wade Boggs .3279
3. Rod Carew .3278
4. Kirby Puckett .3181
5. Vladimir Guerrero .3176

Note the substantial gap between the best and second-best numbers on this list.

Gwynn is even a bigger outlier in the category of batting average hitters in modern baeball if you take into account home-field environment.  Since Lou Gehrig retired, there has been no player in the majors — not Ted Williams, not Stan Musial, not Joe DiMaggio, not anyone — with a full career batting average in road games (min. 200 career road PAs) higher than Tony Gwynn’s.

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Most Career WAR While Playing For Southern California-Based Teams (pitching WAR for pitchers, total WAR for non-pitchers)
1. Tony Gwynn, Padres 68.9
2. Willie Davis, Dodgers/Padres/Angels 55.9
3. Don Sutton, Dodgers/Angels 55.5
4. Don Drysdale, Dodgers 53.3
5. Chuck Finley, Angels 52.2
6. Sandy Koufax, Dodgers 51.3

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Another unusual aspect of Tony Gwynn’s career has been his ability to be a highly productive modern-era hitter while striking out relatively infrequently.  Here is a list of the top 10 career AB per Strikeout ratios by hitters whose careers fall entirely in the 1933-2012 period and who achieved a career OPS+ of at least 120 (min. 1000 PAs):

1. Tommy Holmes 40.9 ABs per K (122 career OPS+)
2. Tony Gwynn 21.4 AB/K (132 OPS+)
3. Zeke Bonura 19.9 AB/K (122 OPS+)
4. Lou Boudreau 19.5 AB/K (120 OPS+)
5. Joe DiMaggio 18.5 AB/K (155 OPS+)
6. Yogi Berra 18.2 AB/K (125 OPS+)
7. Jackie Robinson 16.8 AB/K (132 OPS+)
8. Nick Etten 16.7 AB/K (126 OPS+)
9. Ted Kluszewski 16.2 AB/K (123 OPS+)
10. Don Mattingly 15.8 AB/K (127 OPS+)

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–After finishing second in the voting four times in a row, Gwynn won this round rather easily, appearing on ten more ballots than anyone else.
–Nevertheless, in his first round on the ballot, Bobby Grich proved quite popular, fininishing second in the voting to Gwynn and appearing on a strong 35% of ballots cast.
–In his redemption-earned returns to the ballot, Edgar Martinez didn’t merely survive, he received enough support to earn an extra round of eligibility and thus avoid the bubble next round. Kenny Lofton, the other redemption-based returner, also garnered significant support and will be back again.
–On the other side of the scale, Dwight Evans, who just barely survived on the ballot last round, found little support this time, and drops off the ballot. So we began this round with 12 holdovers, Gwynn earns induction, Evans drops off, and Grich joins the holdovers, which will thus be an 11-man group for the next round.

As usual, you can check out the complete voting record for this past round at Google Docs.  The link is here: COG 1949 Part 1 Vote Tally

If you would like to review the history of the COG voting, a spreadsheet summary of the voting is here: COG Vote Summary , with a summary of the raw vote totals on Sheet 1 and a summary of the percentage totals on Sheet 2.

The Circle of Greats membership thus far:
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Wade Boggs
Barry Bonds
George Brett
Gary Carter
Roger Clemens
Tom Glavine
Tony Gwynn
Rickey Henderson
Randy Johnson
Barry Larkin
Greg Maddux
Paul Molitor
Mike Mussina
Mike Piazza
Tim Raines
Cal Ripken, Jr.
Curt Schilling
Ozzie Smith
Frank Thomas
Larry Walker
Robin Yount

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Jeff Hill
Jeff Hill
10 years ago

Finally! Those few sentences proves Gwynn’s worth in this CoG. I still can’t believe it took him this long to get in. When no one has done(and it looks very likely no one ever will again)what he did in the last 70-80 years is something really special.

Timmy Pea
Timmy Pea
10 years ago

Rafael Palmeiro: Is there any player being punished more by the HoF voters than Palmeiro?

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
10 years ago
Reply to  Timmy Pea

McGwire. Both are admitted users, but McGwire had the better career. It looks like neither of them will make it through the BBWAA; we’ll see if the VC is kinder to them.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
10 years ago

We’ve got 23 players in the COG now, almost enough to fill an MLB roster. So even though we haven’t elected an actual second baseman or center fielder yet, we’ve got more than enough players to put together a lineup: ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? CATCHER: CARTER over Piazza; in a lineup where everyone can hit, I’ll go defense-first up the middle FIRT BASE: BAGWELL; vastly better defensively than Thomas SECOND BASE: since Ozzie is the shortstop (see comment on shortstops), any of Larkin, Ripken or Yount can slide over to second. Even though Larkin is the ony one to atually play second (3… Read more »

Insert Name Here
Insert Name Here
10 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

As a fellow Red Sox diehard, I concur with Brett over Boggs. I love Boggs and all, and I’ve always thought of Boggs as the classier ballplayer, Brett is simply the better player.

But wouldn’t you want Schilling in your late innings? He actually has experience there!

Chris C
Chris C
10 years ago

Boggs as the classier ballplayer? Have we forgotten Margo Adams? 🙂

Chad
Chad
10 years ago

Or the 64 Coors Lights on a cross country flight?

Chad
Chad
10 years ago
Reply to  Chad

Sorry, it was Miller Lites. My bad.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
10 years ago

@10/Chris C,

Boggs also had the reputation as a kind of an oddball with the Red Sox; beyond the obvious chicken-eating ritual at the same time every day, there was the “willing himself invisible” incident to avoid an alleged knife-weilding assailant, plus once (1986?) he claimed to hurt himself pulling off his cowboy boots.

mosc
mosc
10 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

He was also one of the most superstitious ballplayers of all time. And by ballplayer standards, that’s saying a lot.

brp
brp
10 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

Paul Molitor played a fair amount of second base, chiefly early in his career, but did rack up 400 games played and 392 starts.

Robin Yount played half his career in Center.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
10 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

@4/INH, As a fellow Red Sox diehard, you must _also_ remember how throughout the 1980s, Boggs was regarded by a large part of the RS fandom as a good but selfish/quite overrated player. Nowadays, he’s rated ahead of Brooks Robinson and Pie Traynor, and near the same territory as Brett or Mathews. To those fans, the idea that Boggs was even in the same universe as Robinson or Brett would’ve been totally preposterous; a lot of these RS fans were actually glad when Scott Cooper replaced Boggs in 1993. Of course, these are some of the same people who rated… Read more »

Insert Name Here
Insert Name Here
10 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

Give me a break, I’m clearly younger than you think.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
10 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

@/INH,

No offense meant; I merely thought that you were old enough to
remember watching Boggs in his prime playing for the Red Sox.

Either that, or you’ve studied Boggs’ and Brett’s career records very closely.

Insert Name Here
Insert Name Here
10 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

No, sadly I grew up with Boggs in pinstripes and then in Tampa Bay (which was actually nice since I lived in the Tampa Bay area at the time and was able to see him play in person before he retired). From what I know of his Red Sox years I don’t think he was overrated at all, just that Brett was a better player but Boggs was more level-headed and intelligent, like your comparison of Mussina to Schilling. Of course, once Mike Schmidt is in the COG both Boggs and Brett will have to step aside in your lineup,… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
10 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

@9/INH, Yes, agreed that once Schmidt is selected in this COG round, he will be the permanent #1 third baseman. My comments in #6 above were directed at fellow Red Sox fans/New Englanders who followed the team closely in the mid/late 80s (which I mistakenly thought you were). This is at the dawn of the advanced-stats movement (I distinctly remember buying a Bill James Abstract in 1984), so Boggs got begrudging acknowledgement for his great OBA, but nothing like the credit he gets nowadays. A lot of RS fans thought he should give up a few points of his BA… Read more »

mosc
mosc
10 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

Ozzy at short is silly. Larkin won’t be healthy much but when he is, he’s just a superior player. His defense was excellent. Nobody was better than ozzy but Larkin’s bat is competitive with a lot of these guys on it’s own. Ozzy’s bat will land him as a defensive replacement for all time’s sake. There is no reason to favor defense over the total package. Larkin is far from a weak defensive shortstop, that’s just not fair. Piazza has a better bat than carter but carter could hit. That, and their defense was astronomically different. That’s a totally different… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
10 years ago

@13/mosc, I understand what you are saying and respect that, but I am constructing an actual team, more than just making player-to-player comparisons. I believe that if you have a lot of good hitters on a team, and you add _another_ good hitter, it adds less to the team than a great defensive shortstop would. You’re right that the three other shortstops were were, at the least, good-to-excellent for much of their time at SS, especially Ripken. I would rate Yount and (especially) Ripken as overall better players than Ozzie Smith, but I think Ozzie holds his own with Larkin.… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
10 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

@17/birtwlcom,

Wow that’s a great point, I didn’t consider the strikeout rates of the starting pitcher when selecting the shortstop.

Didn’t the Mets do something like that with Howard Johnson in the mid/late 80s?? He was primarily a third baseman, but played a fair amount of games (263 total) at shortstop (where he was not highly regarded), mostly when strikeout pichers like Gooden and Sid Fernandez started.

I think this was manager Davey Johnson’s idea – maybe Mets fans of the 80s can clarify.

brp
brp
10 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

I agree in having Henderson over Yount in Center, and that it would certainly be feasible to move one of the SS crew to 2B. Was just pointing out that there are a couple players who did in fact play those positions for a significant amount of time.

Besides, we have to elect a “true” 2B at some point, right? Little Joe Morgan, enemy of the sabermetrician, pretty much is a dead lock, I’d think.

bells
bells
10 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

I hope that when we’re done the CoG in a year and a half we can have our next project be a 112-week ‘vote off the worst 3 players and the lowest goes’ contest until we rank them all, hahaha.

All kidding aside, it’s exciting to think about the fact that we can start a team of the folks we selected. The circle is growing.

mosc
mosc
10 years ago

1 Henderson CF 2 Bonds LF 3 Thomas DH 4 Bagwell 1B 5 Brett 3B 6 Larkin SS 7 Yount RF 8 Carter C 9 Molitor 2B Molitor has 3400 innings at second, came up as a second basemen. He can hack it. Yount had plenty of speed and plenty of arm for right field. I am not a believer in strict positional skillsets, I think Larkin or Ripken would make perfectly good second basemen, I’d just prefer Molitor in the lineup. I am not a Larry Walker fan. Rotation 1 Johnson 2 Clemens 3 Maddux 4 Blyleven 5 Glavine… Read more »

Insert Name Here
Insert Name Here
10 years ago

While everyone is throwing in an opinion about our hypothetical all-time team, I might as well use my peak WAR/162 method to rank the COG position players to determine the lineup and then to rank the COG pitchers to determine the pitching staff. I still don’t like Bonds being in the COG, so I’ve left him out, but I’ve kept Clemens because, well, he was a) found not guilty of all charges by a jury and b) is needed by this “team” which has only 7 pitchers. Here’s my lineup: 1. Henderson LF 2. Larkin SS 3. Thomas DH 4.… Read more »