Hot Times at the Hot Corner

To tell you something you already know, the youngster in Baltimore, that kid named Machado, is a pretty fine ballplayer. Had a very creditable run at the all-time doubles mark before slowing down in the dog days. And, a very steady job at 3rd base – silky smooth hands and footwork, an effortless gun for an arm, and a particular highlight reel play that I, for one, will not soon forget. Mind-boggling to think that he just turned 21.

But, there’s another young 3rd baseman who has received very little ink indeed. Name of Nolan Arenado, a 22 year-old rookie in Colorado. Hasn’t yet shown much of a bat, but take a look at his defensive totals, currently showing 3.4 dWAR in just 109 games (Nolan didn’t get called up until the end of April).

Here’s the kicker: barring injury, Machado and Arenado will post the two best defensive third base seasons ever, as measured by WAR Fielding Runs.

More after the jump.

Hard to believe? Here’s the list of 3rd base seasons by WAR Fielding Runs.

Rk Player Rfield Year Age Tm G PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Brooks Robinson 33 1968 31 BAL 162 667 65 154 36 6 17 75 44 55 .253 .304 .416 .720
2 Robin Ventura 32 1998 30 CHW 161 674 84 155 31 4 21 91 79 111 .263 .349 .436 .785
3 Brooks Robinson 32 1967 30 BAL 158 681 88 164 25 5 22 77 54 54 .269 .328 .434 .763
4 Manny Machado 31 2013 20 BAL 129 586 77 163 44 3 11 60 24 91 .296 .325 .446 .772
5 Scott Rolen 30 2004 29 STL 142 593 109 157 32 4 34 124 72 92 .314 .409 .598 1.007
6 Buddy Bell 30 1979 27 TEX 162 720 89 200 42 3 18 101 30 45 .299 .327 .451 .778
7 Graig Nettles 30 1971 26 CLE 158 690 78 156 18 1 28 86 82 56 .261 .350 .435 .785
8 Aurelio Rodriguez 30 1970 22 TOT 159 663 70 152 33 7 19 83 40 87 .249 .302 .420 .721
9 Clete Boyer 30 1961 24 NYY 148 579 61 113 19 5 11 55 63 83 .224 .308 .347 .656
10 Nolan Arenado 29 2013 22 COL 107 420 38 105 23 4 9 43 20 56 .264 .301 .411 .711
11 Chone Figgins 29 2009 31 LAA 158 729 114 183 30 7 5 54 101 114 .298 .395 .393 .789
12 Clete Boyer 28 1962 25 NYY 158 633 85 154 24 1 18 68 51 106 .272 .331 .413 .745
13 Adrian Beltre 27 2008 29 SEA 143 612 74 148 29 1 25 77 50 90 .266 .327 .457 .784
14 Hank Blalock 27 2003 22 TEX 143 615 89 170 33 3 29 90 44 97 .300 .350 .522 .872
15 Robin Ventura 27 1999 31 NYM 161 671 88 177 38 0 32 120 74 109 .301 .379 .529 .908
16 Buddy Bell 27 1981 29 TEX 97 415 44 106 16 1 10 64 42 30 .294 .364 .428 .792
17 Graig Nettles 27 1976 31 NYY 158 657 88 148 29 2 32 93 62 94 .254 .327 .475 .802
18 Adrian Beltre 25 2003 24 LAD 158 608 50 134 30 2 23 80 37 103 .240 .290 .424 .714
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/26/2013.

With a bit more than a sixth of the season still to play, Machado and Arenado are clearly on pace to move into the top two positions on this list.

Looking just at players aged 24 or younger, Machado already tops that list and Arenado should move into 2nd spot in another week or so.

Rk Player Rfield Year Age Tm G PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Manny Machado 31 2013 20 BAL 129 586 77 163 44 3 11 60 24 91 .296 .325 .446 .772
2 Aurelio Rodriguez 30 1970 22 TOT 159 663 70 152 33 7 19 83 40 87 .249 .302 .420 .721
3 Clete Boyer 30 1961 24 NYY 148 579 61 113 19 5 11 55 63 83 .224 .308 .347 .656
4 Nolan Arenado 29 2013 22 COL 107 420 38 105 23 4 9 43 20 56 .264 .301 .411 .711
5 Hank Blalock 27 2003 22 TEX 143 615 89 170 33 3 29 90 44 97 .300 .350 .522 .872
6 Adrian Beltre 25 2003 24 LAD 158 608 50 134 30 2 23 80 37 103 .240 .290 .424 .714
7 Terry Pendleton 24 1985 24 STL 149 602 56 134 16 3 5 69 37 75 .240 .285 .306 .591
8 Ryan Zimmerman 22 2009 24 WSN 157 694 110 178 37 3 33 106 72 119 .292 .364 .525 .888
9 Lee Tannehill 22 1904 23 CHW 153 586 50 125 31 5 0 61 20 57 .229 .260 .303 .563
10 Brett Lawrie 20 2012 22 TOR 125 536 73 135 26 3 11 48 33 86 .273 .324 .405 .729
11 Evan Longoria 20 2010 24 TBR 151 661 96 169 46 5 22 104 72 124 .294 .372 .507 .879
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/26/2013.

And, don’t forget about another young 3rd baseman, Toronto’s Brett Lawrie. Injuries  have thwarted his progress, preventing him from logging a full season this year or last. Those injuries result, in part, because Lawrie plays full bore all the time. And, he’s a bit of a hot head, which has hurt his team and his reputation. Both of these traits should temper themselves as Lawrie matures. Despite these bumps, his career to date puts him in some pretty exclusive company. Below are the 3rd baseman who, in their first three seasons, had at least 1000 PAs and compiled WAR at a rate of better than 1 per 102 PA.

Rk Player Rfield PA WAR/pos From To Age G R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG Tm
1 Evan Longoria 48 1840 20.0 2008 2010 22-24 430 263 455 121 7 82 302 190 386 .283 .361 .521 TBR
2 Brett Lawrie 39 1017 10.1 2011 2013 21-23 244 130 252 47 10 30 106 68 167 .272 .329 .442 TOR
3 Wade Boggs 32 1792 18.0 1982 1984 24-26 415 260 531 89 12 16 173 216 101 .344 .421 .448 BOS
4 Mike Schmidt 23 1169 11.7 1972 1974 22-24 307 153 239 39 7 55 171 173 289 .247 .366 .472 PHI
5 Eddie Mathews -1 1874 18.4 1952 1954 20-22 440 286 441 75 17 112 296 271 259 .279 .384 .560 BSN-MLN
6 Dick Allen -9 1441 15.2 1963 1965 21-23 333 224 395 71 28 49 178 141 293 .310 .377 .525 PHI
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/26/2013.

Of this group, Lawrie is clearly the only one making the list primarily because of his defense.

Finally, this confluence of young talent is nothing new. Take a look at the list below showing career WAR Fielding Runs for seasons playing 50% of games at third base. I’ve color-coded the players to group those debuting within a few seasons of each other.

Rk Player Rfield From To Age G PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Brooks Robinson 292 1955 1977 18-40 2896 11782 1232 2848 482 68 268 1357 860 990 .267 .322 .401 .723
2 Adrian Beltre 186 1998 2013 19-34 2243 9246 1165 2392 490 30 373 1294 619 1354 .282 .334 .479 .813
3 Scott Rolen 175 1996 2012 21-37 2038 8518 1211 2077 517 43 316 1287 899 1410 .281 .364 .490 .855
4 Buddy Bell 174 1972 1989 20-37 2405 10009 1151 2514 425 56 201 1106 836 776 .279 .341 .406 .747
5 Clete Boyer 160 1955 1971 18-34 1725 6368 645 1396 200 33 162 654 470 931 .242 .299 .372 .670
6 Robin Ventura 156 1989 2004 21-36 2079 8271 1006 1885 338 14 294 1182 1075 1179 .267 .362 .444 .806
7 Graig Nettles 141 1967 1988 22-43 2700 10228 1193 2225 328 28 390 1314 1088 1209 .248 .329 .421 .750
8 Mike Schmidt 128 1972 1989 22-39 2404 10062 1506 2234 408 59 548 1595 1507 1883 .267 .380 .527 .908
9 Gary Gaetti 127 1981 2000 22-41 2507 9817 1130 2280 443 39 360 1341 634 1602 .255 .308 .434 .741
10 Lee Tannehill 113 1903 1912 22-31 1090 4184 331 833 135 27 3 346 229 375 .220 .269 .273 .542
11 Wade Boggs 104 1982 1999 24-41 2440 10740 1513 3010 578 61 118 1014 1412 745 .328 .415 .443 .858
12 Terry Pendleton 100 1984 1998 23-37 1893 7637 851 1897 356 39 140 946 486 979 .270 .316 .391 .707
13 Brandon Inge 91 2001 2013 24-36 1532 5617 563 1166 228 38 152 648 443 1306 .233 .301 .384 .685
14 Matt Williams 91 1987 2003 21-37 1866 7595 997 1878 338 35 378 1218 469 1363 .268 .317 .489 .805
15 Aurelio Rodriguez 90 1967 1983 19-35 2017 7085 612 1570 287 46 124 648 324 943 .237 .275 .351 .626
16 Jeff Cirillo 85 1994 2007 24-37 1617 6136 800 1598 343 21 112 727 563 694 .296 .366 .430 .796
17 Evan Longoria 81 2008 2013 22-27 762 3268 456 784 193 10 158 527 360 667 .276 .359 .518 .877
18 Ken McMullen 80 1962 1977 20-35 1583 5729 568 1273 172 26 156 606 510 815 .248 .316 .383 .699
19 Ken Boyer 74 1955 1969 24-38 2034 8272 1104 2143 318 68 282 1141 713 1017 .287 .349 .462 .810
20 Ossie Bluege 73 1922 1939 21-38 1867 7453 883 1751 276 67 43 848 723 515 .272 .352 .356 .707
21 David Bell 70 1995 2006 22-33 1403 5380 587 1239 267 18 123 589 428 687 .257 .320 .396 .716
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/26/2013.
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bstar
bstar
10 years ago

What really jumps out of that first list is Scott Rolen’s 1.000+ OPS in 2004. Only one other great fielder on that list had an OPS over .900.

Rolen’s 2004 season was indeed historic. 9.1 WAR in only 142 games, and he’s one of only two players with 40 batting runs and 30 fielding runs in a season:

Scott Rolen 2004: +40 Rbat, +30 Rfield
Albert Pujols 2007: +51 Rbat, +31 Rfield

birtelcom
Editor
10 years ago

Is there some sort of new DED (defense-enhancing drug) out there? Human Vacuum Hormone (HVH)?

bstar
bstar
10 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Nope, just a new way to measure defense–DRS. You’ll notice that 7 of the 18 seasons on Doug’s first list were from 2003 and beyond. DRS has higher numbers than TZ, which is the metric being used to evaluate defense before 2003. B-Ref still provides TZ numbers. I think substituting TZ for DRS numbers would be a better way to compare Brooks Robinson to Manny Machado since it would then be the same metric used for both. Here’s the 7 seasons I’m referring to. player name, year team: DRS runs / TZ runs Manny Machado, 2013 BAL: +31 DRS /… Read more »

Arsen
Arsen
10 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Thanks for this explanation. Otherwise, it’s hard to understand how this could be possible. So many great third basemen over the years, it seems absurd that the two finest defensive years could happen in the same season. I saw Arenado make a couple of fine plays last night at Coors. He’s a joy to watch but I’d still go with my childhood hero Mike Schmidt.

Jacob
Jacob
10 years ago

Also – and this may be a dumb question – aren’t these defensive metrics relative to the other current talent at the position?

In other words, will a generation of terrible 3Bs drive up the defensive numbers of a few excellent 3Bs?

Ed
Ed
10 years ago
Reply to  Jacob

Jacob – I believe you’re correct on that account. DRS uses year-to-year league changes in their system. UZR, a somewhat similar system, uses multi-year data (though I’m not sure how many years of data they use).

Bryan O'Connor
Editor
10 years ago

Hasn’t it been determined that Lawrie’s getting a huge boost in fielding runs from the Blue Jays’ aggressive shifts? I thought I read somewhere that plays he’s making on the right side of the infield are “breaking the metrics”. Anyone know if the Orioles or Rockies use extreme shifts?