Offensive Domination at Any Age Part 1

Over the last few years we have been spoiled. It seems like every top prospect lately has come up, and proven themselves to be among the best in the game immediately. Bryce Harper started bashing from almost his very first pitch it, and only a midsummer slump last year slowed him down. Mike Trout looks like he might end up being the greatest player of all time, all the while finding a cure for cancer, and feeding the hungry. For 2/3s of this season Manny Machado was making a serious run at one of the oldest records in American sports, the single season doubles record. It does not usually work out this way. For every Alex Rodriguez, who came up and put together MVP quality seasons consistently in his early 20’s, there are 10 guys that need to adjust to Major League pitching.

On the other end of the spectrum we have a player like Raul Ibanez. Although he has cooled off lately, Ibanez still has a shot at setting the homerun record for any player of his age. These type of statistics have always fascinated me. I love watching an 18 year old hold his own, in the same league that  somebody literally 2 and a half times his age is also surviving in. I thought an interesting project would be to find the greatest hitting season ever for every age. This is purely from an offensive perspective. I did this because quite frankly I do not trust defensive metrics that over 20 years old. I do not want to exclude an old time player just because of my personal bias. This exercise is from a wide range of factors, not purely OPS+, or wRC+. I factored in playing time, quality of play, and impact on the game. All ages are based on the Baseball Reference definition, their age on June 30th. Today’s edition will have ages 18-29, while tomorrow I will have ages 30-40.

18 or younger-Whitey Lockman

This one was difficult. Not surprisingly, there have not been very many great seasons by players barely old enough to vote. The obvious choice would probably be Phil Cavarretta, who in 1935 had 28 doubles, 8 homers, and 82 RBI, all of which are the most all time. However, I ultimately decided to choose a player that was truly great over only a handful of plate appearances. Whitney Lockman in 1945 hit .341 in 129 at-bats. He also walked more often than he struckout. His .890 OPS is 164 points better than any 18 year old.

19-Tony Conigliar0

When I think of great seasons by a 19 year old, I think of Tony Conigliaro. He had 24 homeruns, and a .530 slugging%, both records. Other players in contention were Mel Ott, who hit .322 in 500 plate appearances, and Bryce Harper, who scored 98 runs, and led the Nationals to the playoffs last year.

20-Alex Rodriguez

This is where the list gets good. 7  20 year old players have had at least 500 plate appearances, and an OPS+between 160-169. Mike Trout last year was  the best offensive player in baseball. Ty Cobb and Al Kaline each led the league in hits. Mel Ott and Ted Williams each had OPS’s over 1.000. There are many great selections, all honestly within spitting distance of each other, but I decided A-ROD was the best. In 1996 he led the league in batting, doubles, and runs scored. He also launched 36 bombs, and had 215 hits.

21-Mike Trout

His season isn’t over yet, but I am confident saying this season will end up being the best ever by a 21 year old. Trout’s 181 OPS+ blows away the field, and he is currently leading the league in walks. He has an outside shot at his 2nd straight 30 homer-30 steal season. He also has a chance at being the only player in history, of any age, with 30 homers-30 steals-40 doubles-10 triples. Many other players were great, including Willie McCovey, who was dominant but in less than 200 at-bats, and Jimmie Foxx, who had a .463 OBP

22-Ted Williams

This was the easiest age to decide upon. I didn’t have to look up the numbers to know who I was going to choose. Williams hit .406, and had arguably the best offensive season of all time. The fact that he didn’t win the MVP is a joke. Other great seasons were put together by Ty Cobb, Stan Musial, and Boog Powell.

23-Ted Williams

He really was the greatest hitter ever. In 1942 he put together a season that was well below is level of performance the previous year. He still led the league in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, homers, RBI, and runs scored. This is probably the best back-to-back run since the days of Ruth. Players who were also great in their age 23 seasons are Ty Cobb, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Reggie Jackson, and Albert Pujols.

24-Jimmie Foxx

In 1932 Jimmie Foxx had a batting line of .364/.469/.749. He hit a league leading 58 homeruns, 168 RBI and 151 runs scored. He won the AL MVP, not an easy accomplishment in a league with Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Charlie Gehringer, and Al Simmons.  Ty Cobb also had an amazing year as a 24 year old, hitting .420 while stealing 83 bases. Lou Gehrig had a 220 OPS+ as a 24 year old. Either of them would be equably good selections.

25-Babe Ruth

In 1920 Babe Ruth had his first Babe Ruth season. It was first year as a Yankee, and made the Red Sox regret their decision right away. He finished with a 239 wRC+, and 54 homeruns. His 1.379 OPS in 1920 is the highest any player other than Barry Bonds has ever had. Mickey Mantle also had a great offensive season as a 25 year old. had a .512 OBP in 1957.

26-Frank Thomas

In 1994 a pair of 26 year olds were having historic seasons prior to the strike. Jeff Bagwell had 116 RBI and 39 homers in only 11o games. However I feel like Frank Thomas’s season was even better. He was hitting .353, while averaging nearly a walk a game. Add in his 38 homers in 113 games, and if allowed another 40+ games he might have finished with one of the 5 best years ever. Babe Ruth also was amazing as a 26 year old, setting the MLB record with 119 extra-base hits.

27-George Brett

Although Brett only 515 plate appearances in 1980, they might have been the best 515 plate appearances of the decade. He hit .390, while averaging over an RBI a game. He only struckout 22 times in his 515 plate appearances, an absurd ratio for the time period. Ted Williams was also incredible as a 27 year old. Williams had a .497 OBP in 1946. Also Chris Davis is currently only 12 homers away from tying Hank Greenburg’s record high of 58 as a 27 year old.

28-Rogers Hornsby

In 1924 Rogers Hornsby set the Major League record, by batting .424 for the season. However, that was far from all he did. He led the league with 121 runs, 43 doubles, and 89 walks. His .507 OBP and .696 SLG were tops that season as well. As always Babe Ruth was in contention as a 28 year old. He had a .545 OBP and slugged 41 dingers.

29-Mickey Mantle

1961 was a magical season for the Yankees. Roger Maris would establish a new Major League record with 61 homeruns. However the man behind him the lineup was even better. Mantle had 54 homers, and a league leading .687 slugging percentage. The tandem led the Yankees to a World Series championship over the Cincinnati Reds. Other players with notable 29 seasons were Babe Ruth, who hit 46 homers and had a .513 OBP, and Albert Pujols, who won his 2nd straight MVP in 2009 with 47 homers and a league leading 189 OPS.

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Jim Bouldin
10 years ago

Nice idea Neal–should generate some interesting discussion. 1. Don’t think I can give the nod to A-Rod at any point in his career however, especially by 1996 when steroids were taking over the game (and definitely not over Kaline!). 2. I’ll take Rickey Henderson’s campaign at age 21, or if not there, then age 24 or definitely at age 26 (80/90 steal rate, 146 runs scored, .314 BA, .419 OBP). He’s gotta be on that list somewhere IMO. Nor would I give it to Trout for a season that’s not yet finished and in which the Angels’ lousy offense potentially… Read more »

David Horwich
David Horwich
10 years ago

For age 26 I would definitely take Babe Ruth in 1921 over Frank Thomas in 1994. You wrote, “if allowed another 40+ games [Thomas] might have finished with one of the 5 best years ever.” Maybe, maybe not. His OPS+ that year was 212; in full seasons, he posted OPS+ of 181, 180, 179, 178, 177….so my guess is, had the season not been truncated, he’d have been more likely to regress towards an OPS+ in the 180 range. Which is of course still amazing. But Ruth *did* have one of the 5 best offensive seasons ever, at least as… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
10 years ago

Neal: It’s Whitey Lockman, not Whitney. Also, it’s Cavarretta.

paget
paget
10 years ago

Interesting list. I’ve got no problem at all with Ted Williams’ monster 1941 season representing the best ever produced by a 22 year old. I do have to take issue with the assertion that “the fact that he didn’t win the MVP [that year] is a joke.” I doubt this will be a popular opinion around here but DiMaggio’s claim on the MVP that year was equal if not superior to Williams’. DiMaggio’s away stats: .369/.457./.667/1.123 Williams’ away stats: .380/.529./.700/1.228 No one could argue that Williams didn’t have the superior offensive year, but the notion that he was operating in… Read more »

paget
paget
10 years ago
Reply to  Neal Kendrick

For a real joke it’s enough to go to the 1947 MVP. Talk about a race that’s hard to wrap your head around. How anyone justified voting for DiMaggio over Williams in that one is beyond me. But in my mind the ’41 award still goes to the Clipper…

no statistician but
no statistician but
10 years ago

I think this is a provocative post. Good for you, Neal, even if you never really heard of Whitey Lockman, a gutsy, serviceable first baseman for two Giant pennant winners. You have Mantle listed as best at age 29, but his truly best season was age 24, the triple crown, 52 HR—20 more than anyone else in the league—11.3 WAR, 210 OPS+. I think this season contends well with those of Foxx, Cobb, and Gehrig, given that it came in a year not dominated by hitting. I also have to second paget’s comments @ #4 concerning the 1941 MVP. Part… Read more »

e pluribus munu
e pluribus munu
10 years ago

nsb, I don’t qualify as a Red Sox fan, much less an admirer of Ted Williams’ baseball persona, but I’ve read lots of comments by teammates about the inspirational and motivational quality of Williams’ play, and how supportive he was of teammates and as a mentor. Those comments were, however, generally from the post-War phase of his career. In ’41, Williams was a 22 year-old in his third season, DiMaggio was 26 in his sixth – I think the common stereotype of the two might fit the way they interacted with teammates that season. I think the press tended to… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
10 years ago

epm:

Thanks for the input on Williams.

One cavil on the 14-3 “post streak” comment: DiMaggio went on a second hitting streak of 16 games following game 57, so he came within inches of having a 73 game streak, the inches referred to being the reach of Ken Keltner’s glove, more or less.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
10 years ago

Let’s not forget the camaraderie among Williams, Dom DiMaggio, Bobby Doerr and Johnny Pesky that was so strong that a statue of the 4 of them now stands at Fenway Park.

paget
paget
10 years ago

I always liked Ted Williams. No one would have ever called him avuncular, even in his old age, but when you watch the Burns documentary on Baseball, he just comes off as a guy with this child-like enthusiasm for the game. It’s totally charming, I think. That said, I think there’s something revealing in the fact that Williams’ stated ambition was simply to be the greatest hitter there ever was. He came close to achieving that goal (or made it, depending on your perspective), but there is something uni-dimensional about it, and also it’s definitely not team oriented. Take DiMaggio’s… Read more »

fireworks
fireworks
10 years ago
Reply to  paget

Late to the party. I personally don’t find calling Dimaggio’s win a joke to be inappropriate as it speaks to the quality of the debate about MVP at the time. I don’t buy into dinging Williams for wanting to be the greatest hitter ever while patting Joe on the back for the Yankee comment. Lots of guys wanted to be a Yankee back then. If not for the fact that Williams’ mother wanted him to stay close to home (and that the Red Sox were very briefly affiliated with the local PCL Padres) as well as the Yankees organization insulting… Read more »

paget
paget
10 years ago
Reply to  fireworks

Ok, let me clarify a couple of things: I’m not suggesting that Williams did damage to his team by his singular focus on being the best hitter ever. Of course not. Like I say above, I like Ted Williams, and he clearly helped his team out by being one of the very greatest hitters ever. I was only attempting to come to grips with popular conceptions of their attitudes about ball playing. Nothing more really; no one in their right minds would suggest that Williams didn’t help his team win more than all but 10 or so folks in the… Read more »

paget
paget
10 years ago
Reply to  paget

By the way, fireworks, apologies for being EXTRA late to the party!

Doug
Doug
10 years ago

You mentioned the strike-shortened 1994 season for Frank Thomas. Another player with almost as good a season that year was 27 year-old Albert Belle, who I think deserves a mention with the other age 27 seasons alongside George Brett.

Belle led the league with 294 total bases in 2/3 of a season (517 PA, almost the same as Brett). That included 36 HR, 35 2B, 101 RBI, 90 runs scored, 194 OPS+, 6.6 oWAR and only 71 strikeouts.

Phil
10 years ago
Reply to  Doug

28-year-old Albert was almost as awesome: 50/50 (2B/HR) in a less-strike-shortened season. An MVP vote that still puzzles me.

David Horwich
David Horwich
10 years ago
Reply to  Phil

Belle was, to put it mildly, not well-liked by the media. And while the media often displays an irrational herd mentality when it comes to such things, in Belle’s case it’s fair to say he brought much of it down on himself. Search “Albert Belle Bat Burglary” and see what you find….

nightfly
10 years ago
Reply to  David Horwich

Belle was famously surly and unapproachable when it came to the media. He beaned a photographer with a thrown baseball once – just had no use for the press at all. I remember an SI piece (and here it is) from my time as a subscriber… just look at the cover. He was not well-liked.

Ed
Ed
10 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug – While Belle had a great season in 1994, a different 27 year old – Kenny Lofton – led the Indians and the AL in WAR that year.

Chad
Chad
10 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Bagwell a slightly better ’94 season, in a park that was slightly worse for hitters (95 to 98).

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
10 years ago

Since Babe Ruth had three of the very greatest hitting seasons ever in 1920, 1921, and 1923, I’d list him for the age-26 and age-28 seasons as well. His 1921 is MUCH better than Frank Thomas’ 1994, and while Hornsby’s 1924 was amazing ,Ruth’s 1923 was better.

Or was there a “one year per player” limit?