2013 Rookie Roundup and Best Rookies by Franchise

After the historical emergence of two stellar rookies in 2012, the surprising Mike Trout and the much-anticipated Bryce Harper, it would be normal to expect 2013, in comparison, to be something of a letdown in terms of rookie stars. Happily, that hasn’t been the case.

This season has produced 6 rookies, 3 pitchers and 3 position players, each achieving more than 3 WAR. That’s about a normal number for recent years. What’s notable, though, is that 4 of those 6 rookies (and one other) have made the top 3 for their franchise’s best rookie WAR.

More on this year’s rookie crop and each franchise’s best all-time rookies after the jump.

I mentioned that 2013 was a fairly normal year for rookies contributing at the 3 WAR level. Here are recent rookies to reach that mark, first for position players.

And, for pitchers.

The presence on the list above of a few relievers is noteworthy as 3 is a very high WAR for a rookie reliever of the modern mold. For relievers with no starts and averaging 4 outs or less per appearance, Jonathan’s Papelbon’s 2006 season of 5.0 WAR is the highest of all pitchers, rookie or otherwise. Andrew Bailey’s 3.7 in 2009 is a distant second among rookies and one of only 9 such rookie relievers to reach 3 WAR.

Now for this year’s rookie crop, starting with the position players:

Rk Player WAR/pos OPS+ Age Tm G PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP SB CS BA OBP SLG Pos
1 Yasiel Puig 5.0 166 22 LAD 95 401 62 118 21 2 17 39 33 88 10 11 8 .332 .401 .546 *98/H7
2 Nolan Arenado 3.8 82 22 COL 125 485 46 123 26 4 10 50 21 67 1 2 0 .268 .300 .407 *5/H
3 Juan Lagares 3.5 85 24 NYM 112 386 32 90 20 4 4 30 19 87 2 6 2 .251 .291 .362 *89H
4 A.J. Pollock 2.8 92 25 ARI 129 453 60 109 26 4 7 34 30 79 1 12 3 .261 .311 .392 *8H/79
5 David Lough 2.5 92 27 KCR 91 322 34 86 17 4 4 31 9 49 2 5 2 .283 .305 .405 *97H/8
6 Jose Iglesias 2.1 105 23 TOT 105 373 39 106 16 2 3 29 15 59 11 5 2 .310 .357 .395 *65/H4D
7 Brandon Barnes 1.8 82 27 HOU 129 425 46 96 17 1 8 41 21 115 8 11 11 .247 .298 .358 *89H/7
8 Wil Myers 1.8 139 22 TBR 77 325 41 87 18 0 13 49 30 78 1 5 2 .300 .363 .497 *9D/8H
9 Scooter Gennett 1.8 129 23 MIL 59 192 24 56 9 2 6 18 10 35 1 1 1 .316 .354 .492 *4H
10 Brad Miller 1.6 104 23 SEA 69 308 35 73 10 6 6 31 22 45 1 5 3 .260 .314 .402 *64/5H
11 Nick Franklin 1.6 92 22 SEA 93 376 33 73 18 1 12 44 37 105 0 6 1 .216 .293 .382 *4/HD6
12 Jedd Gyorko 1.5 108 24 SDP 115 481 57 112 25 0 19 51 28 116 4 1 1 .251 .299 .434 *45/H
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/20/2013.

Yasiel Puig has taken Angelenos by storm as no rookie has since Fernando Valenzuela more than 30 years ago. Puig’s current 166 OPS+ is just two points behind Mike Trout’s 2012 mark that is the best by a rookie in the live ball era (min. 300 PA). Puig is also on pace to become just the 15th rookie of the live ball era (and only the 6th since 1961) to post a .300/.400/.500 slash.

The top 4 names on this list all make the top 3 list for best franchise rookie WAR (more on that further on). As suggested by their OPS+ scores, aside from Puig, the players at the top of the list are there mainly for their defense. Jose Iglesias has impressed both on offense and defense; he needs to become a more selective hitter, but a .350 OBP despite only 15 walks is a nice problem to have.

Brandon Barnes’ success rate on steals will need to improve. He is just the second rookie since 1986  (Peter Bergeron of the 2000 Expos is the other) with 10+ steals and no better than a 50% success rate.

Seattle is the just the eighth team of the live ball era to have two rookie middle infielders with 1.5 WAR.

Now, for starting pitchers:

Rk Player WAR WHIP SO/9 BB/9 SO/BB Age Tm G GS CG SHO W L IP H R ER BB SO ERA ERA+
1 Jose Fernandez 6.5 0.979 9.75 3.02 3.22 20 MIA 28 28 0 0 12 6 172.2 111 47 42 58 187 2.19 179
2 Shelby Miller 3.5 1.196 9.04 2.90 3.12 22 STL 29 29 1 1 14 9 161.1 141 60 54 52 162 3.01 122
3 Julio Teheran 3.2 1.191 8.24 2.32 3.56 22 ATL 28 28 0 0 12 8 174.2 163 64 61 45 160 3.14 123
4 Hyun-jin Ryu 2.9 1.199 7.16 2.34 3.06 26 LAD 28 28 2 1 13 7 181.0 170 64 61 47 144 3.03 117
5 Chris Archer 2.5 1.082 6.64 2.58 2.57 24 TBR 21 21 2 2 9 7 122.0 97 44 41 35 90 3.02 126
6 Jarred Cosart 2.5 1.350 4.95 5.25 0.94 23 HOU 10 10 0 0 1 1 60.0 46 15 13 35 33 1.95 209
7 Tony Cingrani 2.3 1.099 10.32 3.70 2.79 23 CIN 23 18 0 0 7 4 104.2 72 37 34 43 120 2.92 133
8 Brett Oberholtzer 1.9 1.094 5.82 1.34 4.33 23 HOU 11 8 1 1 4 3 60.1 57 21 20 9 39 2.98 137
9 Martin Perez 1.4 1.335 5.76 2.54 2.27 22 TEX 17 17 1 0 9 5 106.1 112 48 43 30 68 3.64 114
10 Zack Wheeler 1.3 1.360 7.56 4.14 1.83 23 NYM 17 17 0 0 7 5 100.0 90 42 38 46 84 3.42 105
11 Sonny Gray 1.3 1.037 9.33 2.50 3.73 23 OAK 10 8 0 0 3 3 54.0 41 18 15 15 56 2.50 150
12 Jonathan Pettibone 1.3 1.465 5.92 3.41 1.74 22 PHI 18 18 0 0 5 4 100.1 109 50 45 38 66 4.04 94
13 Gerrit Cole 1.2 1.159 7.60 2.18 3.48 22 PIT 18 18 0 0 9 7 111.1 102 41 40 27 94 3.23 108
14 Danny Salazar 1.2 1.114 10.99 2.70 4.07 23 CLE 9 9 0 0 1 3 46.2 38 16 16 14 57 3.09 123
15 Dan Straily 1.1 1.236 7.35 3.40 2.16 24 OAK 26 26 0 0 10 7 145.2 125 71 66 55 119 4.08 92
16 Chris Rusin 1.1 1.297 4.92 3.23 1.52 26 CHC 12 12 0 0 2 5 64.0 60 26 25 23 35 3.52 113
17 Todd Redmond 1.0 1.104 9.30 2.55 3.65 28 TOR 15 12 0 0 4 2 70.2 58 31 30 20 73 3.82 108
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/20/2013.

Fernandez’s 6.5 WAR is the best for a rookie pitcher since Britt Burns posted 7.0 for the 1980 White Sox. For pitchers under age 21, it’s the best rookie WAR since Christy Mathewson‘s 9.1 in 1901. Fernandez’s 179 ERA+ is the best all-time for an under 21 pitcher in a qualifying rookie season, and the best since Vean Gregg‘s 189 in 1911 for a rookie of any age.

Houston’s two starters in the top 10 are notable in that both compiled their bonafides in 10 or fewer starts. Will be fun to see if they can keep it up next spring. We won’t have to wait that long to see how Hyun-jin Ryu fares under post-season pressure. The same goes for 9 other pitchers on the list playing on teams likely to make the post-season, or with a chance to do so.

And, for relief pitchers.

Rk Player WAR WHIP SO/9 BB/9 SO/BB Age Tm G GF W L SV IP H R ER BB SO ERA ERA+ HR
1 Alex Torres 1.9 0.894 9.39 3.35 2.80 25 TBR 35 4 4 1 0 53.2 28 10 9 20 56 1.51 254 1
2 Kevin Siegrist 1.8 0.873 12.27 4.42 2.78 23 STL 40 13 3 1 0 36.2 14 2 2 18 50 0.49 758 1
3 Yoervis Medina 1.8 1.284 9.46 5.15 1.84 24 SEA 60 19 4 6 1 64.2 46 21 21 37 68 2.92 127 4
4 Jim Henderson 1.7 1.083 10.70 3.67 2.91 30 MIL 57 42 5 5 25 56.1 38 14 14 23 67 2.24 176 6
5 Justin Wilson 1.6 1.056 6.97 3.30 2.12 25 PIT 55 8 6 1 0 71.0 49 17 17 26 55 2.15 163 4
6 Seth Maness 1.6 1.286 5.25 2.01 2.62 24 STL 62 3 5 2 0 58.1 62 16 15 13 34 2.31 160 4
7 Paco Rodriguez 1.5 0.887 10.36 3.23 3.21 22 LAD 74 11 3 3 2 53.0 28 14 13 19 61 2.21 161 4
8 Dan Otero 1.3 1.282 6.14 1.47 4.17 28 OAK 30 8 2 0 0 36.2 41 7 6 6 25 1.47 256 0
9 Cody Allen 1.2 1.303 10.91 3.55 3.08 24 CLE 71 12 6 1 2 66.0 60 22 19 26 80 2.59 146 7
10 Trevor Rosenthal 1.2 1.136 12.74 2.52 5.05 23 STL 69 11 2 4 0 71.1 61 25 22 20 101 2.78 133 4
11 Caleb Thielbar 1.1 0.881 7.29 3.00 2.43 26 MIN 45 14 3 2 0 42.0 23 11 9 14 34 1.93 214 4
12 Dane De La Rosa 1.1 1.215 8.03 3.69 2.18 30 LAA 70 20 6 1 2 68.1 55 25 23 28 61 3.03 125 3
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/20/2013.

Mostly middle relievers and setup men, with only the Brewers’ Jim Henderson thrust into the closer role. Henderson is the 25th rookie pitcher with 25 or more saves, all of them since 1972. Craig Kimbrel‘s 46 saves in 2011 tops that list, which includes 6 RoY winners.

Alex Torres and the Twins’ Ryan Pressly are the only rookie relievers with 50+ IP to average 1.5 IP per appearance. The 254 ERA+ for Torres makes the top 15 all-time for rookie pitchers (min. 50 IP), and is the best among rookie pitchers averaging 1.5 IP per appearance since Calvin Schiraldi‘s 299 in 1986.

The league-leading 74 appearances for Paco Rodriguez marks the 11th time since 1961 that a rookie has led his league in appearances. Six more games this season will put Rodriguez into the top 10 for rookie appearances, a list headed by Wayne Granger‘s 90 relief outings in 1969.

To close, here’s a table showing each franchise’s top 3 rookies by WAR (with RoY winners denoted by asterisk) for both position players and pitchers, as well as other rookies outside of the top 3 to win RoY honors (first awarded in 1947, and separately for each league since 1949).

[table id=153 /]

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Darien
10 years ago

I went to high school with Peter Bergeron of the 2000 Expos. No real point; I was just tickled to see him show up here. 🙂

PaulE
PaulE
10 years ago

Doug:
Richie Allen won the 1964 NL Rookie of the Year award in a season that was arguably the greatest rookie season of the last 100 years until Trout’s 2012. For some reason Allen finished only 7th in NL MVP voting despite the Phillies remarkable pennant run.
He probably would have accumulated more WAR if not for the fact he never played an inning of 3b in professional ball until spring training. He committed an NL worst 41 errors 🙁

Doug
Doug
10 years ago
Reply to  PaulE

Wow. That’s a ton of miscues.

Allen must have gotten to a lot of balls because he ended up with positive dWAR (0.3) despite his misadventures.

no statistician but
no statistician but
10 years ago
Reply to  PaulE

Paul: If you look at the voting you’ll see that, in the year of a four-team race, there were numerous outstanding seasons. Ken Boyer for the winning Cardinals was the consensus leader with 14 out of 20 votes, but Johnny Callison of the Phillies finished in second place, followed by Bill White of the Cards, Frank Robinson of the Reds, Frank Torre of the Braves, Willie Mays of the Giants. All had outstanding years, and Callison—whose WAR, an unknown stat at the time, lagged behind Allen’s—was viewed nevertheless as the driving force for the Phillies for his gutsy play. Allen… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
10 years ago

So, basically, if the Phillies don’t fade, Callison wins the MVP award. Runs Batted In was the hallowed statistic of yore, however, with Juan Gonzalez garnering 2 such awards and Cabrera as recently as last year winning over Trout, apparently the media’s love affair with the stat hasn’t ended.

PaulE
PaulE
10 years ago

Doug
Allen was a close second to Santo in putouts and double plays. He was third, behind Santo and Boyer, in assists. The three of them played in a total of 485 games. Interestingly enough, Dick Groat committed 40 errors at SS for the WS Champion Cardinals.

no statistician but
no statistician but
10 years ago

How good a predictor is the ROY award for the HOF?

I’ve spotted 14 HOFers in the ROY lists, plus 5 more who will probably get in, plus Pete Rose, plus a couple for whom it’s too soon to tell. With 128 ROYs so far, that’s roughly 1 out of 6.

But I see only one pitcher—Seaver—who is currently in, and only Verlander as a possibility, if his career doesn’t fade.

Comments, anyone?

Doug
Doug
10 years ago

It would seem that becoming a pitcher rather than a thrower (to use a hackneyed phrase) is an ability that is seldom acquired without time and experience, even for the most gifted pitchers.

Young batters will tend to rely more on their natural abilities (see the ball, hit the ball) with the result that players with the most natural ability will do well right away and will also be better able to sustain that performance over the course of a career.

birtelcom
Editor
10 years ago

Good point about ROY pitchers, nsb. Not that many pitchers win the ROY in the first place, but of the few that do, the most spectacular seem to have burned out early: the Gooden/Valenzuela/Fidrych/Dontrelle category. As for the position players, although I haven’t double-checked, I’m guessing that the best way to tell quickly whether a ROY has a high or low chance of making the Hall is to check to see how old he is when he wins the ROY. The younger he is, I’m betting, the more likely the Hall beckons.

no statistician but
no statistician but
10 years ago

Guess I’m just fascinated by ROY outcomes. How good a predictor is the ROY award for the MVP and CYA? An interesting disparity that is ongoing: by my count the National League has produced 14 RsOY who have won MVPs(4 multiple winners) and 4 who have won CYAs(1 multiple). The AL has produced 7 RsOY who have won MVPs(1 multiple winner) and just 1 CYA winner, Verlander, (also an MVP). The percentage of MVPs and CYAs won by ROY winners comes to 34 out of 231, about 1 in 7. So, one chance in six that a ROY makes the… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
10 years ago

All right:

Dead horse beating time: Of the 231 MVPs and CYAs since 1947 when the ROY award was instituted, 126 by my judgment were won by HOFers or likely HOfers, or Pete Rose, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and A-Rod, the latter bunch with baggage that may keep them out, but . . ..

I’d say the ROY award isn’t a very good predictor of later award success.

RJ
RJ
10 years ago

No need for the dead horse comment nsb, I find this all very interesting. I’m not surprised by your findings though because I’m forever coming across players who I’ve never even heard of who apparently won the award. Given that players often win the award with relatively unimpressive numbers, this is to be expected.

I was sort of surprised at how low the following number was though: there have only been 20 rookie seasons worth more than 6 WAR ever. There’s over 20 players with more than 6 WAR in the majors this year alone.

PaulE
PaulE
10 years ago

NSB:
Well how many of the RoY award winners who made the Hall were trailed in the voting by future Hall members? Also, Jim Lefebrve beat out a more deserving Joe Morgan – how often did something similar happen? Also, 1 in 7 is a lot better ratio than how many out of everyone who got 90 PAs or pitched the minimum innings for a rookie?

birtelcom
Editor
10 years ago

Perhaps there is something of a a paradox in ROY awards in that older rookies have an advantage in competing for the award over younger ones because they tend to be more mature. But those older rookies are also less likely to become MVP/CY types because they tend to have fewer years remaining to grow toward a peak. The award is Rookie of the Year, not “Rookie Who Showed the Most Potential This Year”. The latter sort of award might tend to go to younger guys even if they showed a bit less actual performance than their older peers, and… Read more »

www.energomics.com
9 years ago

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