New Kids on the WAR Block

With just two weeks left in the season, Mike Trout will repeat as AL WAR champion and Andrew McCutchen, last year’s NL WAR runner-up, looks like the senior circuit’s champ. In second place are Josh Donaldson in the AL and Carlos Gomez in the NL.

Come again, you say? You’re forgiven if those two runners-up weren’t the names you were expecting to hear. Both of these players are new to baseball’s leader boards. After the jump, more on the new kids on the WAR block.

Josh Donaldson

Playing out on the west coast, the Athletics’ 3rd baseman Josh Donaldson may not be a familiar name to everyone. But, he’s a big reason why the no-name As are again contenders and, at this juncture, in the catbird’s seat’ for the AL West crown.

Donaldson is in his first full major league season and is sporting a 7.4 WAR score including 6.1 offensive WAR and 1.7 defensive WAR. Third baseman with oWAR over 6 and dWAR over 1.5 are pretty unusual. Donaldson would be just the 17th post-1901 third-sacker with such a season, 14 of those since 1961. Mike Schmidt leads the way with four such seasons; nobody else has more than one.

Rk Yrs From To Age
1 Mike Schmidt 4 1974 1980 24-30 Ind. Seasons
2 Josh Donaldson 1 2013 2013 27-27 Ind. Seasons
3 Scott Rolen 1 2004 2004 29-29 Ind. Seasons
4 Alex Rodriguez 1 2004 2004 28-28 Ind. Seasons
5 Adrian Beltre 1 2004 2004 25-25 Ind. Seasons
6 Troy Glaus 1 2000 2000 23-23 Ind. Seasons
7 Wade Boggs 1 1989 1989 31-31 Ind. Seasons
8 Doug DeCinces 1 1982 1982 31-31 Ind. Seasons
9 George Brett 1 1979 1979 26-26 Ind. Seasons
10 Darrell Evans 1 1973 1973 26-26 Ind. Seasons
11 Ron Santo 1 1967 1967 27-27 Ind. Seasons
12 Brooks Robinson 1 1964 1964 27-27 Ind. Seasons
13 Eddie Mathews 1 1963 1963 31-31 Ind. Seasons
14 Ken Boyer 1 1961 1961 30-30 Ind. Seasons
15 Home Run Baker 1 1912 1912 26-26 Ind. Seasons
16 Art Devlin 1 1906 1906 26-26 Ind. Seasons
17 Bill Bradley 1 1903 1903 25-25 Ind. Seasons
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/17/2013.

Relaxing the standard a bit to having 5+ oWAR to go with 1.5 dWAR yields these additional seasons not included in the list above.

Rk Yrs From To Age
1 Evan Longoria 3 2009 2011 23-25 Ind. Seasons
2 Ron Santo 2 1963 1968 23-28 Ind. Seasons
3 David Wright 1 2012 2012 29-29 Ind. Seasons
4 Adrian Beltre 1 2010 2010 31-31 Ind. Seasons
5 Ryan Zimmerman 1 2009 2009 24-24 Ind. Seasons
6 Buddy Bell 1 1980 1980 28-28 Ind. Seasons
7 Doug DeCinces 1 1978 1978 27-27 Ind. Seasons
8 George Brett 1 1977 1977 24-24 Ind. Seasons
9 Mike Schmidt 1 1975 1975 25-25 Ind. Seasons
10 Ron Cey 1 1975 1975 27-27 Ind. Seasons
11 Freddie Lindstrom 1 1928 1928 22-22 Ind. Seasons
12 Frankie Frisch 1 1921 1921 22-22 Ind. Seasons
13 Rogers Hornsby 1 1919 1919 23-23 Ind. Seasons
14 Bill Bradley 1 1904 1904 26-26 Ind. Seasons
15 Jimmy Collins 1 1901 1901 31-31 Ind. Seasons
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/17/2013.

So, a few more names, but certainly not a season that most players will turn in on a regular basis. Worthwhile noting Evan Longoria’s name at the top of this list. He is just fractionally below the 1.5 dWAR threshold this year and could well be there at season’s end. If so, he would join Mike Schmidt as the only 3rd baseman with 4 such seasons (Schmidt had four consecutively in 1974-77 and one more in 1980).

Carlos Gomez

Gomez is in his 7th major league season, but this will be only his second qualifying year. His first qualifying season was a 77 OPS+ year for the Twins as a 22 year-old in 2008; he’s done rather better with his second opportunity.

While Donaldson had an unusual season for his position, Gomez’s season is almost unprecedented. His 7.4 WAR total from 3.6 oWAR and 4.1 dWAR is just the fourth center-field season with 3+ oWAR and more dWAR, and the first of those four with dWAR above 4.

Rk Player WAR/pos oWAR OPS+ dWAR Year Age Tm G PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG
1 Carlos Gomez 7.4 3.6 123 4.1 2013 27 MIL 135 543 74 140 26 9 19 63 34 132 .284 .339 .489
2 Andruw Jones 7.4 3.8 116 3.9 1998 21 ATL 159 631 89 158 33 8 31 90 40 129 .271 .321 .515
3 Andruw Jones 7.0 3.6 114 3.8 1999 22 ATL 162 679 97 163 35 5 26 84 76 103 .275 .365 .483
4 Franklin Gutierrez 6.6 3.3 105 3.6 2009 26 SEA 153 629 85 160 24 1 18 70 46 122 .283 .339 .425
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/17/2013.

Measuring defensive contribution is fraught with peril, so there is reason to be cautious in assessing Gomez’s defensive prowess. That said, this season did not come completely out of the blue; Gomez posted 1.6 dWAR in his first qualifying season in 2008 and 1.8 dWAR in part-time duty in 2011, a rate that almost matches his 2013 performance. However, comparing Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) with Total Zone Runs (TZR and the predecessor to DRS in dWAR scores), there is a big divergence for 2013 with DRS at 34 and TZR at only 7 (similar to Gomez’s 6 TZR in his other full season in 2008).

Mindful of those reservations about defensive metrics, here is a larger net of comparable center-field seasons, those with 6+ WAR comprised of 3 to 5 oWAR  and 1.5 dWAR.

Rk Yrs From To Age
1 Andruw Jones 3 1998 2002 21-25 Ind. Seasons
2 Devon White 2 1991 1993 28-30 Ind. Seasons
3 Chet Lemon 2 1983 1984 28-29 Ind. Seasons
4 Paul Blair 2 1967 1969 23-25 Ind. Seasons
5 Carlos Gomez 1 2013 2013 27-27 Ind. Seasons
6 Michael Bourn 1 2012 2012 29-29 Ind. Seasons
7 Franklin Gutierrez 1 2009 2009 26-26 Ind. Seasons
8 Lance Johnson 1 1993 1993 29-29 Ind. Seasons
9 Kenny Lofton 1 1992 1992 25-25 Ind. Seasons
10 Dwayne Murphy 1 1980 1980 25-25 Ind. Seasons
11 Mickey Rivers 1 1976 1976 27-27 Ind. Seasons
12 Garry Maddox 1 1976 1976 26-26 Ind. Seasons
13 Bill North 1 1973 1973 25-25 Ind. Seasons
14 Reggie Smith 1 1970 1970 25-25 Ind. Seasons
15 Tommie Agee 1 1966 1966 23-23 Ind. Seasons
16 Willie Davis 1 1964 1964 24-24 Ind. Seasons
17 Richie Ashburn 1 1953 1953 26-26 Ind. Seasons
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/17/2013.

Nice list – a veritable who’s who of top defensive center-fielders. And, in most cases, it’s their best season or in the top 3, as the list gets much smaller for the same players having a season with oWAR over 5.

Rk Yrs From To Age
1 Richie Ashburn 4 1951 1958 24-31 Ind. Seasons
2 Andruw Jones 2 2000 2005 23-28 Ind. Seasons
3 Kenny Lofton 2 1993 1994 26-27 Ind. Seasons
4 Reggie Smith 2 1977 1978 32-33 Ind. Seasons
5 Lance Johnson 1 1996 1996 32-32 Ind. Seasons
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/17/2013.

Closing Thought

Third on the AL WAR list is Robinson Cano. If it wasn’t already apparent, Cano is unmistakably among the all-time greats at his position which, with the pinstripes on his uniform, positions him clearly on a HOF career trajectory.

Here’s a table showing number of second base seasons at different WAR levels, in the first 9 years of a career. Search or sort it however you like.

[table id=151 /]

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Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
10 years ago

Gomez has pulled back 5 HR from beyond the fence this season (incidentally, that’s thought to be a record). That’s 8 runs right there, even if he’s otherwise played the position to a draw, which I don’t think he has. I don’t find 34 runs to be all that crazy, honestly.

Doug
Doug
10 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

Thanks, Dr. Doom,

No substitute for seeing the player first hand. I saw Gomez once when he came to Seattle. No highlight reel plays, but he sure can cover his ground; there was a gapper that looked for sure would go to the wall and he not only cut it off but held the hitter to a single.

birtelcom
Editor
10 years ago

Nice that Donaldson’s OPS for the season, his third in the majors, as of today is .887, given that his OPS in his first MLB season was .487, and then last year it was .687. Steady .200-point jumps. Kind of bodes well for next year, doesn’t it.

Arsen
Arsen
10 years ago

Richie Ashburn’s four seasons of +5 oWAR and 1.5 dWar really stands out on that list. He’s got four of the eleven seasons like that in baseball history for a centerfielder and he was the only one to do that before 1977.