Re: Seaver Makes Great Catch for COG in 1944 Round

In a balloting round heavy with famous pitchers, voters considered Tom Seaver the crème de la crème, and chose him as the 30th inductee into the High Heat Stats Circle of Greats (COG).  More on Tom Terrific and the voting after the jump.

The era of 16-team major league baseball lasted exactly 60 seasons, from 1901 through 1960.  Among all pitchers born during that sixty-year period, here are the highest career Wins Above Replacement numbers (the numbers listed here represent combined pitching and hitting WAR numbers, baseball-reference version, for these guys):
1. Tom Seaver 110.5
2. Warren Spahn 100.1
3. Phil Niekro 96.6
4. Bert Blyleven 95.4
5. Gaylord Perry 91.0

Indeed, among all players, pitchers and position players combined, born during that 1901-1960 period, only Seaver among pitchers falls within the top 10 most valuable according to baseball-reference WAR:

Most Overall WAR, MLB players born from 1901 through 1960:
1. Willie Mays 155.9
2. Hank Aaron 142.3
3. Stan Musial 128.2
4. Ted Williams 123.2
5. Lou Gehrig 112.6
6. Rickey Henderson 110.6
7. Tom Seaver 110.5
8. Mickey Mantle 109.7
9. Mel Ott 107.8
10. Frank Robinson 107.2

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Seaver had a great peak period as a pitcher, but he was also astoundingly steady in his ability to produce highly valuable seasons as a pitcher year after year after year.

Most Seasons of 4 or more pitching WAR, MLB history (1876-2013):
17 seasons, by Walter Johnson and Cy Young
16 seasons, by Roger Clemens
15 seasons, by Tom Seaver
14 seasons, by Grover Cleveland Alexander, Warren Spahn and Bert Blyleven

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Thanks to Tom Seaver and Randy Johnson, there was a former USC Trojan who was also a future COG inductee pitching in the major leagues for 42 of the 43 seasons from 1967 through 2009.

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Commenter “Hartvig” did a nice summary of the voting as it stood near the end of this round, which can be found in the comments on the 1944 round voting post.  All I need to do is a summary of Hartvig’s summary:

— For the six big-name pitchers on the ballot, the results came in six different flavors.  Seaver appeared on nearly 90% of the ballots, a very high level of COG support.  Steve Carlton, born about a month after Seaver, couldn’t match Tom in votes but did receive heavy support, earning four rounds of guaranteed ballot presence, if he needs it.  Nolan Ryan continues to receive solid support, and earns two more rounds of ballot eligibility for his growing trove.  Jim Palmer received enough votes to maintain his eligibility status quo, but not more than that.  John Smoltz fell below the 10% threshold, so he will have one fewer guaranteed round in his horde next time.  Don Sutton also dropped below the 10% threshold, but Don had no surplus eligibility to protect him, so he falls off the ballot.  You’ll be able to vote to bring Sutton back in the next “redemption round” if you choose.

— Graig Nettles got enough support in his debut on the ballot to join the holdover list, although not enough to avoid the bubble next round.  With Carlton replacing Sutton among the holdovers, and Nettles joining in too, the number of holdovers will increase from 12 in the 1944 round to 13 next round.

— Roberto Alomar, who has been on every one of our 30 induction ballots, fell under the 10% level of support this round, and loses his only surplus year of eligibility.  So Roberto is back on the bubble next round, joining Nettles, Eddie Murray and Ryne Sandberg .  Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich also fell below 10% this round, but each has extra rounds of eligibility to spare so neither is in immediate danger of falling off the ballot, or even arriving on the bubble.

As usual, you can check out the complete voting record for this past round at Google Docs.  The link is here: COG 1944 Round Vote Tally

If you would like to review the history of the COG voting, a spreadsheet summary of the voting is here: COG Vote Summary , with a summary of the raw vote totals on Sheet 1 and a summary of the percentage totals on Sheet 2.

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The Circle of Greats membership thus far (based on an observation by commenter “mosc”, Paul Molitor is now listed below as INF/DH instead of DH):
Bert Blyleven, P
Roger Clemens, P
Tom Glavine, P
Randy Johnson, P
Greg Maddux, P
Mike Mussina, P
Curt Schilling, P
Tom Seaver, P
Johnny Bench, C
Gary Carter, C
Carlton Fisk, C
Mike Piazza, C
Jeff Bagwell, 1B
Rod Carew, 2B
Wade Boggs, 3B
George Brett, 3B
Mike Schmidt, 3B
Barry Larkin, SS
Cal Ripken, Jr., SS
Ozzie Smith, SS
Alan Trammell, SS
Robin Yount, SS
Paul Molitor, INF/DH
Rickey Henderson, LF
Tim Raines, LF
Barry Bonds, LF
Tony Gwynn, RF
Reggie Jackson, RF
Larry Walker, RF
Frank Thomas, DH

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mosc
mosc
10 years ago

lol I made the summary, nice. One of the more obvious choices, Seaver to me is a top 5 pitcher and one any all-time team would highly value. In fact, it’s going to get very hard for any pitcher to crack our rotation. Here’s my attempt at our usual line-up cards: Starters: Roger Clemens Randy Johnson Tom Seaver Greg Maddux Tom Glavine (he’s more useful as a starter imho) RP: Bert Blyleven Curt Schilling Mike Mussina (we could use some more arms) Vs RHP: 1 Ricky Henderson CF 2 Wade Boggs 3B 3 Barry Bonds LF 4 George Brett 1B… Read more »

Artie Z.
Artie Z.
10 years ago
Reply to  mosc

Regarding “Tom Glavine (he’s more useful as a starter imho)”

Other than possibly All-Star games (which I haven’t checked), Tom Glavine NEVER pitched a game in relief in the majors. Not in the regular season (he has the most ever regular season pitching appearances without appearing in relief), not in the postseason – just never. Even in the minors Glavine never relieved – well, almost never. He did come in out of the bullpen in a Rookie League game when he has in his first year of pro ball at age 18.

mosc
mosc
10 years ago
Reply to  Artie Z.

If you look at the pitchers we’re going to elect, very few are going to be a natural fit in the bullpen. Hopefully we run a 1969 round and pick up Rivera (and Jr, though I’d rather have a closer) and we will undoubtedly get around to letting Smoltz in I think even though it might take another 30 rounds. We’ve already passed over Eck and Goose, each I thought had a shot but it appears no. That’s going to leave us with a lot of very good starters that aren’t particularly valuable on a per-inning basis. The older we… Read more »

mosc
mosc
10 years ago
Reply to  Artie Z.

Glavine’s first inning ERA is by far his worst at 4.58. Contrast that with, say Blyleven our other non-unit lefty who sits at 3.73. Certainly both show the pattern common of first inning struggles but Blyleven was worst in the 5th and nearly as bad in the 8th. In other words, fairly consistent. I think Glavine’s skill set in particular make him arguably baseball history’s best “starter only” type guy though Ryan’s probably in that discussion as well.

mosc
mosc
10 years ago

Sorry, please skip this post if you’re not into meta discussion and don’t want to read something very un-important to the grand scheme of life… The thing I was trying to say with Molitor was that I like the ‘only list 1 position per guy’ thing, but if you were going to do that, it was more accurate to list Molitor as IF (I’ve seen that more than INF which seems like inform) since he spent more time at 3B+2B than DH. Also, we should discount time spent in later years at 1B and DH (or left field for aging… Read more »