NLCS Game 3 Chat |

The Dodgers look to turn around their fortunes at home. But history is not on their side.

Since the LCS switched to a best of 7 format in 1985, this is the 13th time a team has come home down 2-0 in the series. Two of those twelve previous series were in 1985 and both teams (the Cardinals and Royals) that were down 0-2 that year came back to win their series. But that comeback has happened only one other time since then; when the Red Sox stunned the Yankees in 2004 with a comeback from a 3-0 deficit.

More on game 3 after the jump.

Tonight is Adam Wainwright‘s 6th career start in Dodger Stadium. He was knocked out in the 3rd inning in 2007 but in his four most recent starts has lasted at least 6 innings each time, and has allowed 2 runs or less in 3 of those games. The one red flag is the long ball – Wainwright has allowed four home runs in his last 13 innings pitched at Chavez Ravine.

For Hyun-jin Ryu, tonight is his second career start against the Cardinals. He allowed one run on 5 hits over 7 innings to beat the Redbirds in St. Louis on August 8th.

Since 2011, the Cardinals have faced a left-handed starter in Dodger Stadium 7 times and have won 3 of those games, two of them when facing Clayton Kershaw! Tonight will be the 12th time since 2011 that St. Louis has started a right-hander in Dodger Stadium; they are 6-5 over that period, including 1-0 when Adam Wainwright starts.

Enjoy the game.

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John Autin

10 years ago

Checking the World Series since 1985, we find that all 14 teams who came home 0-2 went on to lose the Series:
— 1987 Cardinals, 1988 A’s, 1989 Giants, 1990 A’s, 1991 Braves, 1995 Indians, 1998 Padres, 2000 Mets, 2001 Yankees, 2004 Cardinals, 2005 Astros, 2007 Rockies, 2010 Rangers, 2012 Tigers.

Oddly, 3 of 4 who lost the first two WS games at home went on to win the WS:
1985 Royals — won
1986 Mets — won
1996 Yankees — won
1999 Braves — lost

On the other hand, from 1946-84, 7 out of 12 who came home down 0-2 in the World Series, went on to win it all:

Losers
— 1947 Dodgers, 1953 Dodgers, 1954 Indians, 1976 Yankees, 1980 Royals,

Winners
— 1955 Dodgers, 1956 Yankees, 1958 Yankees, 1965 Dodgers, 1971 Pirates, 1978 Yankees, 1981 Dodgers

Adding them together, from 1946-2012, teams coming home down 0-2 in the World Series have gone 7-19 in those Series.

Luis Gomez

Does anybody think that if Puig runs full effort from the start, instead of watching the ball fly, he gets an inside the park HR?

Reply to Luis Gomez

Reminiscent of Hanley sauntering his way to a triple for his first hit as a Dodger:

http://wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=23357319

Reply to RJ

RJ, I well remember ripping Hanley for his behavior on that triple, including his frequent looks backward en route from 2nd to 3rd. It seemed back then that he had very little chance of ever regaining his stardom.

Wrong again, Johno!

Luis, maybe if Yasiel had run like Casey Stengel seems to be running in this classic clip:
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/watch-casey-stengel-game-winning-inside-park-home-180240507–mlb.html

But no, I don’t think he really had a shot at an IPHR.

Reply to John Autin

Ha, ha. That´s faster than Usain Bolt!

e pluribus munu

Thanks for this link, John. I’ve heard about this HR all my life, and never imagined there was a moving record of it. And a very moving record it is.

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Doug

I would think that, with his speed, Puig has a chance to make it home if he goes full out from the crack of the bat. It would have been a daring call to send him home but, with two out, it could have been the right call.

So, for the first time in this series, Puig does something Puig-y, in this case bat flipping his way to a triple. Not as good as this masterpiece of overconfidence though:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiGUYMqUHOU

Has anyone trotted out “Yasiel being Yasiel” yet?

In the comments of this article, before he’d seen a single major league pitch!

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-example-of-yasiel-puigs-needed-development/

Voomo Zanzibar

Griffey mocking Lofton’s trot.
Best center-fielders in baseball at the time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGpJ016WVXU

Meanwhile, Adam Wainwright is famously averse to using an open 1st base for a 2-out pitch-around or IBB. This year, he walked just 1 out of 33 batters with 2 outs and a man on 2nd (only), the 4th-lowest rate out of 81 pitchers with at least 20 such opportunities. (Ervin Santana walked none of 22, and Lackey & Zimmermann both walked 1 with a few more chances.) The overall walk rate was 13%, while Wainwright’s was 3%. That policy did bite him quite a few times. He allowed 10 runs in that situation, second only to Verlander’s 11. His… Read more »

Jon Jay: the anti-Beltran? So far, in 152 career postseason PAs (including 2 tonight), he’s batting .173 with no HRs, slugging .211. In real life, he’s a career .293 hitter with .400 SLG.

Adding in defense, he’s having a bad NLCS so far. But it’s only game 3….

oneblankspace

The Cardinals have won game 4, giving them a 3-1 series lead. With any other team, that would be good news. But in best-of-seven series that the Cards have led 3-1:

1942, won 4-1 (Yankees)
1967, won 4-3 (Boston)
1968, lost 4-3 (Detroit)
1985, lost 4-3 (Kansas City)
1996 NLCS, lost 4-3 (Atlanta)
2006, won 4-1 (Detroit)
2012 NLCS, lost 4-3 (San Francisco)

Cardinals are 2-5 in game 5 and 3-4 in the series when they lead 3-1. (On the other hand, they are 0-4 when trailing 3-1, forcing a game 6 only once.)