2013 Situational Hitting Stars

One of the metrics for evaluating situational hitting is RE24. For those of who aren’t familiar, that stands for Run Expectancy in the 24 base-out states.

RE24 is calculated as the difference in run expectancy before and after a PA, plus any runs that score as a result of the PA. The run expectancies in that calculation are based on empirical results for each base-out state, from nobody on, nobody out to bases loaded, two out. Run expectancy means how many future runs would expect to score in an inning starting from each base-out state, assuming a team of identical average hitters facing identical average pitchers. The run expectancies are pretty intuitive: the more runners on and the fewer the outs, the higher the run expectancy, and vice-versa.

RE24 for a PA can be positive or negative and thus can be summed over a game, a season, or a career. The results apply to both pitchers and hitters. Thus, a positive RE24 for a batter in a given PA is a negative RE24 for the pitcher, and vice-versa. One caveat is that RE24 scores are not adjusted for inning, game score, batting order position, platoon advantage, park effects, or anything else. Thus, RE24 is often most useful when comparing players on the same team.

More on 2013 situational hitting results after the jump. 

To give you a couple of simple examples of RE24, these are the players in 2013 having the most of a few different events.

Bases Loaded Walk Solo Home Run Double w/Runner on 2nd
Joey Votto 4 Chris Davis 30 Carlos Beltran 8
Miguel Cabrera 4 Pedro Alvarez 25 Alexei Ramirez 7
Omar Infante 3 Jay Bruce 22 Carlos Santana 7
Carlos Santana 3 Evan Longoria 22 Troy Tulowitzki 6
Andy Dirks 3 Edwin Encarnacion 20 Nick Swisher 6
Eric Hosmer 3 Adrian Beltre 20 Matt Carpenter 6
Ian Kinsler 3 Adam Jones 20 Dustin Pedroia 6
Victor Martinez 3    
Mike Trout 3    
Elvis Andrus 3    

All of the above events are worth one RE24 because one run scores and the base-out state remains unchanged (which leaves the future run expectancy unchanged).

First, let’s look at the overall leaders. The players below all qualified for the batting title and accumulated over 7 RE24 per 100 PA.

Rk Player RE24 OPS+ PA Year Age Tm G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP GDP BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Miguel Cabrera 75.781 187 652 2013 30 DET 148 555 103 193 26 1 44 137 90 94 5 19 .348 .442 .636 1.078
2 Mike Trout 73.261 179 716 2013 21 LAA 157 589 109 190 39 9 27 97 110 136 9 8 .323 .432 .557 .988
3 Chris Davis 69.044 165 673 2013 27 BAL 160 584 103 167 42 1 53 138 72 199 10 4 .286 .370 .634 1.004
4 Paul Goldschmidt 67.446 160 710 2013 25 ARI 160 602 103 182 36 3 36 125 99 145 3 25 .302 .401 .551 .952
5 Freddie Freeman 63.056 144 629 2013 23 ATL 147 551 89 176 27 2 23 109 66 121 7 10 .319 .396 .501 .897
6 Matt Carpenter 52.442 143 717 2013 27 STL 157 626 126 199 55 7 11 78 72 98 9 4 .318 .392 .481 .873
7 Shin-Soo Choo 49.935 143 712 2013 30 CIN 154 569 107 162 34 2 21 54 112 133 26 3 .285 .423 .462 .885
8 Robinson Cano 49.746 145 681 2013 30 NYY 160 605 81 190 41 0 27 107 65 85 6 18 .314 .383 .516 .899
9 Matt Holliday 49.439 144 602 2013 33 STL 141 520 103 156 31 1 22 94 69 86 9 31 .300 .389 .490 .879
10 Allen Craig 47.258 131 563 2013 28 STL 134 508 71 160 29 2 13 97 40 100 10 12 .315 .373 .457 .830
11 David Ortiz 44.189 160 600 2013 37 BOS 137 518 84 160 38 2 30 103 76 88 1 21 .309 .395 .564 .959
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/23/2013.

No real surprise to see three Cardinals on this list, given their incredible success hitting with runners in scoring position (that observation shouldn’t be taken to mean that the RE24 scores are necessarily the cause or the effect of the RISP results, only that there is a logical affinity between the two). What is somewhat surprising is that a player (Holliday) would make this list while leading his league in GIDP, a notable RE24 killer (Holliday minimized the RE24 damage by having the good sense to ground into only one double play with the bases loaded, and into 20 of the other 30 with just a runner on 1st).

Those 3 Cardinals are among a majors-leading 5 on one team with 20 or more RE24.

These are the team RE24 leaders having the largest proportion of their team’s total RE24.

Rk Player RE24 ▾ Rest of Tm Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO GDP BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Giancarlo Stanton 23.428 -172.128 MIA 116 504 425 62 106 26 0 24 62 74 140 10 .249 .365 .480 .845
2 Adam Dunn 6.048 -136.648 CHW 149 607 525 60 115 15 0 34 86 76 189 2 .219 .320 .442 .762
3 Jason Castro 24.697 -113.997 HOU 120 491 435 63 120 35 1 18 56 50 130 4 .276 .350 .485 .835
4 Joe Mauer 22.810 -112.210 MIN 113 508 445 62 144 35 0 11 47 61 89 7 .324 .404 .476 .880
5 Robinson Cano 49.746 -100.846 NYY 160 681 605 81 190 41 0 27 107 65 85 18 .314 .383 .516 .899
6 Eric Hosmer 25.137 -82.937 KCR 159 680 623 86 188 34 3 17 79 51 100 15 .302 .353 .448 .801
7 Kyle Seager 15.695 -69.295 SEA 160 695 615 79 160 32 2 22 69 68 122 8 .260 .338 .426 .764
8 Chase Utley 27.748 -62.448 PHI 131 531 476 73 135 25 6 18 69 45 79 12 .284 .348 .475 .823
9 David Wright 24.045 -47.845 NYM 112 492 430 63 132 23 6 18 58 55 79 11 .307 .390 .514 .904
10 Paul Goldschmidt 67.446 -47.746 ARI 160 710 602 103 182 36 3 36 125 99 145 25 .302 .401 .551 .952
11 Chris Davis 69.044 -38.744 BAL 160 673 584 103 167 42 1 53 138 72 199 4 .286 .370 .634 1.004
12 Edwin Encarnacion 42.661 -37.361 TOR 142 621 530 90 144 29 1 36 104 82 62 20 .272 .370 .534 .904
13 Andrew McCutchen 40.171 -35.971 PIT 157 674 583 97 185 38 5 21 84 78 101 13 .317 .404 .508 .911
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/27/2013.

These are the top RE24 games of the year, with players who improved their teams’ run expectancy by more than 5 runs.

Rk Player Date Tm Opp Rslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP GDP WPA RE24 BOP
1 Shane Victorino 2013-08-27 BOS BAL W 13-2 5 3 4 3 1 0 2 7 1 0 1 0 0.266 6.559 2
2 Alfonso Soriano 2013-08-14 NYY LAA W 11-3 4 3 3 3 1 0 2 7 1 0 0 0 0.326 6.537 6
3 Omar Infante 2013-09-06 DET KCR W 16-2 5 5 2 5 1 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0.132 5.991 8
4 Miguel Cabrera 2013-05-04 DET HOU W 17-2 5 4 3 4 0 0 2 6 1 0 0 0 0.183 5.846 3
5 Kirk Nieuwenhuis 2013-07-05 NYM MIL W 12-5 6 4 3 4 1 1 0 5 2 0 0 0 0.318 5.822 5
6 Dioner Navarro 2013-05-29 CHC CHW W 9-3 4 3 4 3 0 0 3 6 1 0 0 0 0.330 5.727 6
7 Kelly Johnson 2013-05-27 TBR MIA W 10-6 5 5 2 4 1 0 2 6 0 1 0 0 0.242 5.700 3
8 Pablo Sandoval 2013-09-04 SFG SDP W 13-5 5 5 3 4 0 0 3 6 0 0 0 0 0.107 5.608 5
9 Robinson Cano 2013-04-09 NYY CLE W 14-1 6 6 2 4 2 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 0.254 5.471 2
10 Brandon Belt 2013-09-14 SFG LAD W 19-3 6 6 4 5 1 0 1 6 0 0 0 0 0.074 5.447 3
11 Juan Uribe 2013-07-05 LAD SFG W 10-2 5 5 2 3 1 1 1 7 0 1 0 0 0.298 5.400 8
12 Adam Dunn 2013-06-10 CHW TOR W 10-6 5 4 3 4 0 0 2 5 1 0 0 0 0.514 5.375 5
13 David Ortiz 2013-05-18 BOS MIN W 12-5 5 4 3 3 0 0 2 6 1 0 0 0 0.394 5.192 4
14 Adeiny Hechavarria 2013-05-05 MIA PHI W 14-2 5 4 1 2 0 1 1 7 1 0 0 0 0.217 5.179 8
15 Hunter Pence 2013-09-10 SFG COL L 8-9 5 5 1 4 1 0 1 6 0 1 0 0 0.648 5.167 5
16 Jason Castro 2013-07-31 HOU BAL W 11-0 5 4 2 3 2 0 1 4 1 0 0 0 0.193 5.159 4
17 Billy Butler 2013-05-13 KCR LAA W 11-4 5 5 2 5 2 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0.308 5.131 4
18 Adam Dunn 2013-05-15 CHW MIN W 9-4 5 4 2 3 1 0 2 5 1 0 0 0 0.367 5.064 4
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/27/2013.

Lest you think that high RE24 games are commonplace, here are the leaders with the most games with an RE24 score of 2 or more.

Rk Player #Matching PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS HBP GDP
1 Freddie Freeman 19 Ind. Games 88 77 48 11 0 13 53 10 8 .623 .670 1.273 1.943 1 0
2 Paul Goldschmidt 17 Ind. Games 87 74 42 9 0 14 48 13 14 .568 .632 1.257 1.889 0 0
3 Chris Davis 17 Ind. Games 75 65 44 12 0 18 49 8 9 .677 .707 1.692 2.399 1 0
4 Miguel Cabrera 17 Ind. Games 80 65 48 4 0 18 52 15 5 .738 .788 1.631 2.418 0 0
5 David Ortiz 16 Ind. Games 75 66 42 8 0 12 44 7 4 .636 .653 1.303 1.956 0 1
6 Joey Votto 15 Ind. Games 73 47 33 4 1 10 25 25 3 .702 .795 1.468 2.263 0 0
7 Edwin Encarnacion 15 Ind. Games 69 57 32 6 1 13 44 12 4 .561 .638 1.386 2.024 0 0
8 Robinson Cano 15 Ind. Games 71 63 42 13 0 14 42 7 6 .667 .704 1.540 2.244 1 0
9 Mike Trout 14 Ind. Games 72 61 34 10 2 6 32 10 7 .557 .611 1.082 1.693 0 0
10 Hunter Pence 14 Ind. Games 66 61 39 11 2 10 44 5 6 .639 .667 1.377 2.044 0 1
11 Jason Kipnis 14 Ind. Games 67 52 33 8 4 7 34 13 3 .635 .687 1.346 2.033 0 0
12 Allen Craig 13 Ind. Games 60 53 32 7 1 7 35 5 8 .604 .650 1.170 1.820 2 0
13 Jayson Werth 12 Ind. Games 54 43 25 5 0 10 32 11 8 .581 .667 1.395 2.062 0 0
14 Alfonso Soriano 12 Ind. Games 55 50 31 3 0 15 41 4 7 .620 .655 1.580 2.235 1 0
15 Matt Holliday 12 Ind. Games 56 41 27 3 0 10 30 14 2 .659 .750 1.463 2.213 1 1
16 Josh Donaldson 12 Ind. Games 57 48 29 7 0 6 26 9 6 .604 .667 1.125 1.792 0 0
17 Mike Napoli 11 Ind. Games 53 42 24 11 0 8 34 8 10 .571 .660 1.405 2.065 3 0
18 Adrian Gonzalez 11 Ind. Games 50 45 31 7 0 7 27 5 0 .689 .720 1.311 2.031 0 0
19 Prince Fielder 11 Ind. Games 50 45 28 7 0 8 32 4 4 .622 .640 1.311 1.951 0 0
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/27/2013.

For consistent RE24 scores, these are the players with the most games with a positive or zero RE24 score.

Rk Player #Matching PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS HBP GDP
1 Mike Trout 102 Ind. Games 467 374 152 29 8 26 88 83 71 .406 .516 .735 1.251 6 3
2 Chris Davis 99 Ind. Games 424 360 148 39 0 52 131 54 99 .411 .493 .953 1.446 7 1
3 Paul Goldschmidt 97 Ind. Games 451 368 156 34 3 36 118 74 77 .424 .518 .826 1.344 3 11
4 Joey Votto 93 Ind. Games 419 323 143 25 2 24 67 92 65 .443 .563 .755 1.319 1 2
4 Matt Carpenter 93 Ind. Games 435 372 169 48 7 11 72 52 50 .454 .523 .710 1.233 6 0
6 Miguel Cabrera 89 Ind. Games 398 325 151 20 1 44 129 67 44 .465 .558 .938 1.496 4 7
7 Carlos Santana 86 Ind. Games 365 296 120 32 1 20 70 65 52 .405 .512 .723 1.235 2 4
8 Andrew McCutchen 86 Ind. Games 374 314 144 31 4 19 78 49 43 .459 .537 .764 1.302 8 3
8 Shin-Soo Choo 86 Ind. Games 410 312 130 28 2 21 52 81 63 .417 .554 .721 1.275 16 0
8 Robinson Cano 86 Ind. Games 374 326 155 35 0 24 94 42 29 .475 .540 .804 1.344 5 2
11 Eric Hosmer 84 Ind. Games 361 317 141 28 3 16 68 42 40 .445 .510 .703 1.213 1 3
11 Billy Butler 84 Ind. Games 355 296 136 25 0 15 73 55 33 .459 .544 .696 1.240 2 4
13 Evan Longoria 83 Ind. Games 365 314 129 33 3 29 80 43 71 .411 .479 .812 1.292 3 2
13 Allen Craig 83 Ind. Games 352 308 139 24 2 11 87 31 48 .451 .509 .649 1.158 9 4
13 Jay Bruce 83 Ind. Games 366 323 131 35 1 29 99 38 83 .406 .464 .789 1.254 1 1
16 Josh Donaldson 82 Ind. Games 360 298 140 31 2 24 86 53 41 .470 .550 .829 1.379 5 2
17 Dustin Pedroia 81 Ind. Games 374 313 140 35 1 8 70 55 29 .447 .527 .642 1.169 2 5
17 Adrian Gonzalez 81 Ind. Games 341 304 136 26 0 20 88 32 32 .447 .496 .730 1.226 1 2
17 Freddie Freeman 81 Ind. Games 357 309 140 26 2 23 103 41 44 .453 .518 .773 1.292 4 2
20 Ben Zobrist 80 Ind. Games 361 308 133 31 3 12 62 46 45 .432 .508 .669 1.177 4 2
20 Hunter Pence 80 Ind. Games 347 311 139 30 4 25 92 33 46 .447 .501 .810 1.312 2 3
20 Prince Fielder 80 Ind. Games 350 298 133 30 0 23 97 43 44 .446 .517 .779 1.296 5 4
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/27/2013.

I mentioned that RE24 is most useful when comparing players on the same team, as that provides some measure of context control. Here are a few examples of teammates with similar OPS+, but dissimilar RE24 scores.

Let’s start with the world champions.

Rk Player OPS+ RE24 Year Age Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP GDP BA OBP SLG OPS
4 Shane Victorino 119 23.628 2013 32 BOS 122 532 477 82 140 26 2 15 61 25 75 18 5 .294 .351 .451 .801
5 Dustin Pedroia 116 13.449 2013 29 BOS 160 724 641 91 193 42 2 9 84 73 75 3 24 .301 .372 .415 .787
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/23/2013.

With one-third more PA, Pedroia surprisingly compiled 10 fewer RE24. Despite making the list above for most games with zero or better RE24, Pedroia appears to have been hurt by his 24 GIDP, more especially since he had 3 games with two GIDP. More than half of Victorino’s season RE24 came from 3 monster games (including the season’s top RE24 game) where he was a combined 10 for 13 with 4 HR and 15 RBI.

A couple of interesting pairs on the Royals.

Rk Player OPS+ RE24 Year Age Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP GDP BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Eric Hosmer 118 25.137 2013 23 KCR 159 680 623 86 188 34 3 17 79 51 100 1 15 .302 .353 .448 .801
2 Billy Butler 116 13.968 2013 27 KCR 162 668 582 62 168 27 0 15 82 79 102 3 28 .289 .374 .412 .787
3 Salvador Perez 105 16.383 2013 23 KCR 138 526 496 48 145 25 3 13 79 21 63 4 13 .292 .323 .433 .757
4 Alex Gordon 103 5.809 2013 29 KCR 156 700 633 90 168 27 6 20 81 52 141 9 4 .265 .327 .422 .749
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/23/2013.

As with Pedroia, Billy Butler was hurt by a high GIDP total. Hosmer benefited from bunching his hits effectively. His 60 multi-hit games were tied for second most with Andrew McCutchen, trailing only 63 games by Matt Carpenter.

Perez had the edge on Alex Gordon despite 25% fewer PAs, more GIDP, and fewer home runs. Like Hosmer, Perez benefited from bunching his hits. Of 82 players with 10 or more 3-hit games (Perez had 11), Perez ranked 14th in fewest season PAs, and 21st in fewest overall hits. Gordon was very consistent over the season with no games above 3 RE24, and also no games below -3 RE24.

And, a pair of Dodgers.

Rk Player OPS+ RE24 PA Year Age Tm G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HBP GDP BA OBP SLG OPS
2 Adrian Gonzalez 126 35.165 641 2013 31 LAD 157 583 69 171 32 0 22 100 47 98 1 12 .293 .342 .461 .803
3 Andre Ethier 122 14.359 553 2013 31 LAD 142 482 54 131 33 2 12 52 61 95 7 9 .272 .360 .423 .783
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/27/2013.

Gonzalez did have 16% more PA and more power, and it shows in both his RE24 and RBI. Gonzalez made both of the above lists (for positive RE24 games, and 2+ RE24 games), showing an 81-76 game split in favor of positive or zero RE24 scores. For Ethier, it was a quite different 58-84 split. Ethier didn’t have a lot of really bad RE24 games, just too many games where he did a little worse than average with the opportunities he had.

For some historical context, here are some RE24 superlatives (all since 1950, unless otherwise noted):

  • Most times leading league: Barry Bonds (10), Mickey Mantle (8), Duke Snider (4), Mike Schmidt (4), Frank Thomas (4), Willie Mays (4)
  • Most times leading league, active players: Miguel Cabrera (3), Albert Pujols (3), Jason Giambi (2), Alex Rodriguez (2)
  • Highest season RE24: 128.83, Barry Bonds (2004)
  • Lowest season RE24, leading league: 44.53, Duke Snider (1956)
  • Most seasons, 50+ RE24: Barry Bonds (14), Willie Mays (12), Hank Aaron (10), Mickey Mantle (9), Albert Pujols (9), Ted Williams (9, incl. pre-1950 seasons with partial data)
  • Highest RE24, one game: 9.506, Mark Whiten 1993-09-07
  • Highest RE24, one game, fewer than 2 HR: 7.910, Orlando Cepeda 1961-07-04
  • Highest RE24, one game, no HR: 6.422, Jim Russell 1947-08-20

Finally, the career RE24 leaders. Have to believe that Splinter and maybe Stan would be up near Bonds with complete data for their careers.

Rk Player RE24 WPA OPS+ From To Age G PA BA OBP SLG OPS Tm
1 Barry Bonds 1357.747 127.604 182 1986 2007 21-42 2986 12606 .298 .444 .607 1.051 PIT-SFG
2 Hank Aaron 979.028 98.644 155 1954 1976 20-42 3298 13941 .305 .374 .555 .928 MLN-ATL-MIL
3 Willie Mays 964.354 99.546 156 1951 1973 20-42 2992 12496 .302 .384 .557 .941 NYG-SFG-TOT-NYM
4 Mickey Mantle 963.718 93.363 172 1951 1968 19-36 2401 9907 .298 .421 .557 .977 NYY
5 Frank Robinson 816.355 72.944 154 1956 1976 20-40 2808 11742 .294 .389 .537 .926 CIN-BAL-LAD-CAL-TOT-CLE
6 Ted Williams 800.699 67.707 190 1939 1960 20-41 2292 9788 .344 .482 .634 1.116 BOS
7 Frank Thomas 743.694 60.578 156 1990 2008 22-40 2322 10075 .301 .419 .555 .974 CHW-OAK-TOR-TOT
8 Albert Pujols 713.328 67.527 165 2001 2013 21-33 1958 8546 .321 .410 .599 1.008 STL-LAA
9 Alex Rodriguez 708.568 57.894 143 1994 2013 18-37 2568 11344 .299 .384 .558 .942 SEA-TEX-NYY
10 Manny Ramirez 700.765 56.115 154 1993 2011 21-39 2302 9774 .312 .411 .585 .996 CLE-BOS-TOT-LAD-TBR
11 Jeff Bagwell 697.802 59.309 149 1991 2005 23-37 2150 9431 .297 .408 .540 .948 HOU
12 Joe Morgan 692.946 66.750 132 1963 1984 19-40 2649 11329 .271 .392 .427 .819 HOU-CIN-SFG-PHI-OAK
13 Chipper Jones 686.031 60.295 141 1993 2012 21-40 2499 10614 .303 .401 .529 .930 ATL
14 Stan Musial 671.118 61.052 159 1941 1963 20-42 3026 12717 .331 .417 .559 .976 STL
15 Carl Yastrzemski 668.648 60.571 130 1961 1983 21-43 3308 13992 .285 .379 .462 .841 BOS
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/27/2013.
0 0 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
guest

13 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Richard Chester
Richard Chester
10 years ago

Very interesting blog. I was glad to see that you also mentioned the positive/negative splits for RE24 games. That may be more significant the total value of the sum of RE24 as a few games with a high value of RE24 could skew the results. It also gives me an opportunity to bring up a complaint I have about WPA and RE24. The chart for the top RE24 games, for which you inadvertently typed WPA instead of RE24, shows that the peak performance was achieved by Shane Victorino. He was 4 for 5 with 2 HR and 7 RBI in… Read more »

John Autin
Editor
10 years ago

Richard, I’ll respectfully disagree with your take on those games by Cespedes and Victorino. Both homered in the 3rd inning. But Victorino hit a 2-run HR that turned a 2-1 deficit into a lead. Whatever else happened afterwards, wasn’t Victorino’s HR much more valuable? WPA captures that, with ratings of 0.22 for his HR, 0.12 for Cespedes. At the time of the HRs, nobody knew what would come afterwards. It happens that no more runs were scored after the Cespedes HR — partly because he twice made the last out with 2 men on base. Why should he earn extra… Read more »

bells
bells
10 years ago

but isn’t Cespedes’ hit only important in hindsight? Like, WPA judges the importance of situational batting and fielding situations as they happen. It took a whole team a whole game to stop the Rangers from scoring a run – if Boston’s defense was terrible and they ended up winning 13-12, would Victorino’s performance be better? Cespedes’ HR came in the third inning, and increased their chances of winning, and a bunch of plays (lineouts, strikeouts, etc) in the bottom of the 7th-9th gave Oakland 3% to 9% more chance of winning each time, a methodical progressive team effort. I guess… Read more »

RJ
RJ
10 years ago

Thanks for this article Doug. I’ve seen RE24 mentioned in other places, but I’ve never taken the time to investigate it properly. This was a very useful primer.

John Autin
Editor
10 years ago

Another stimulating Doug post! FWIW, here are the RE24 career leaders who also have at least 7 RE24 per 100 PAs (min. 3,000 PAs; data begin around 1945): Rk — Player … RE24 1 — Barry Bonds … 1357.747 2 — Hank Aaron … 979.028 3 — Willie Mays … 964.354 4 — Mickey Mantle … 963.718 5 — Ted Williams … 800.699 6 — Frank Thomas … 743.694 7 — Albert Pujols … 713.328 8 — Manny Ramirez … 700.765 9 — Jeff Bagwell … 697.802 10 — Mark McGwire … 577.925 11 — Lance Berkman … 564.608 12… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
10 years ago

Doug and JA:

In the lifetime analyses you both make there seems to be a gap between players whose careers started or flourished in the 1950s-1960s and those whose careers straddled the new millennium. Players associated exclusively with the 1970s and 1980s are notable for their absence, and only two whose careers continued through the 1970s to the 1980s, Morgan and Yaz, show up, and only on Doug’s chart.

Thoughts?

no statistician but
no statistician but
10 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug:

Thanks for the response. Somehow I don’t think of the 1950s as being a high-scoring decade, but it seems otherwise now that I look at it more closely. The 1963-1972 decade, though, was the real trough in scoring.

Do you plan to do a post on RE24 from the pitching side?

mosc
mosc
10 years ago

I think I am RE24’s biggest fan! I really like this approach to the analysis as the right way to talk about “run production”. It’s a Saber-metrically fixed RBI number. Run production is important. Striking out with one out and a guy on third is a big deal. So are double plays. Similarly, bases loaded walks are a lot more work than your usual BB. The two complaints with RE24 that are valid to me are 1) It favors those with opportunity. If you are an above average hitter (which, lets be honest, most aren’t), you get benefit from being… Read more »

birtelcom
Editor
10 years ago
Reply to  mosc

RE24 at baseball-reference gives credit for a stolen base to the baserunner and applies a deduction for a caught stealing to the baserunner. Check out any baseball-reference box score in which a player’s only role was as a pinch-runner and had either a steal or a caught stealing. You will see that the player’s RE24 for the game will be positive if he stole a base and negative if he was caught stealing.