In the clutch – Up with Upton, or Raking with Markakis

Derek Jeter has long had the nickname Captain Clutch, a moniker usually attributed to his post-season performance. Indeed, that post-season career reads pretty much like a a full season stat line. A very good stat line.

Year G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
16 Yrs (33 Series) 158 734 650 111 200 32 5 20 61 18 5 66 135 .308 .374 .465 .838 302
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/25/2013.

But, for regular season play, who are the top clutch performers in today’s game? I’ll tell you after the jump.

In their outstanding statistical analysis in “The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball”, Tom Tango et al demonstrated that, for most players, there is no such thing as clutch hitting. Over a career (and usually over much shorter periods), most players will perform, relative to other players, about as well in clutch situations as in any other. But, can there be exceptions?

To find out which players might be exceptions to the general rule, I looked at performance in “late and close” situations using P-I’s Split Finder (“late & close” means 7th inning or later, ahead by one run, tied, or with the tying run at least on deck).  For players with 400 PA, these are the leaders for 2013 in OPS difference in late and close situations.

Rk Player Split G OPS OPStot Diff PA PAtot AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG tOPS+
1 Ryan Doumit Late & Close 78 1.018 .710 .308 114 538 104 37 9 1 5 19 10 20 .356 .412 .606 184
2 Eric Hosmer Late & Close 84 1.059 .801 .258 107 680 95 37 7 1 4 18 11 14 .389 .449 .611 164
3 Alberto Callaspo Late & Close 60 .921 .702 .219 76 516 66 19 6 0 4 18 8 12 .288 .360 .561 160
4 Josh Hamilton Late & Close 76 .954 .739 .215 108 636 93 25 10 0 7 21 10 27 .269 .352 .602 154
5 James Loney Late & Close 71 .977 .778 .199 89 598 83 28 4 0 6 15 5 10 .337 .375 .602 148
6 Kendrys Morales Late & Close 72 .970 .785 .185 99 657 88 31 5 0 4 14 11 20 .352 .424 .545 148
7 Adrian Beltre Late & Close 78 1.059 .880 .179 97 690 89 37 1 0 5 14 6 12 .416 .464 .596 142
8 Alejandro De Aza Late & Close 90 .901 .728 .173 124 675 109 32 5 3 6 23 7 32 .294 .342 .560 144
9 Ichiro Suzuki Late & Close 70 .811 .639 .172 92 555 80 26 2 0 2 5 8 10 .325 .386 .425 154
10 Jose Bautista Late & Close 65 1.026 .856 .170 93 528 83 27 5 0 7 20 9 12 .325 .387 .639 136
11 Josh Reddick Late & Close 50 .850 .686 .164 70 441 57 15 3 0 3 8 11 18 .263 .377 .474 148
12 Elvis Andrus Late & Close 79 .823 .659 .164 104 698 87 32 2 0 1 17 5 12 .368 .398 .425 150
13 Ryan Zimmerman Late & Close 76 .964 .809 .155 97 633 87 30 9 0 3 11 9 19 .345 .412 .552 138
14 Brett Lawrie Late & Close 64 .864 .712 .152 87 442 71 24 4 1 0 7 12 16 .338 .442 .423 147
15 Lorenzo Cain Late & Close 64 .804 .658 .146 82 442 71 21 5 0 2 8 7 19 .296 .354 .451 144
16 Drew Stubbs Late & Close 55 .807 .665 .142 76 481 70 18 5 0 4 10 5 23 .257 .307 .500 140
17 Jason Heyward Late & Close 48 .917 .776 .141 68 440 57 15 4 0 4 9 8 12 .263 .373 .544 134
18 Miguel Montero Late & Close 67 .802 .662 .140 99 475 86 26 4 0 2 7 10 22 .302 .384 .419 143
19 David Murphy Late & Close 53 .788 .656 .132 73 476 68 16 6 0 4 6 5 13 .235 .288 .500 136
20 Chris Davis Late & Close 82 1.131 1.004 .127 111 673 97 30 10 0 11 33 10 34 .309 .378 .753 121
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/25/2013.

Okay. But that’s one season. Means very little by itself. Do any players show a similar OPS improvement in clutch situations from one season to the next? The answer is not very many. But, before I show you those results, consider that in today’s game of relief specialists, performance for most players at the end of games is worse than their overall performance. Thus, it should be less of a surprise to know that:

  • Of the 1580 seasons of 400 PA for today’s 362 active players (those with at least one 400 PA season), only 287 of those seasons  (18%)  show a 50 point OPS bump in those clutch situations
  • Of 158 active players with 3000 PAs (about 5 years worth), 31 (19.6%) have never had a season (min. 400 PA) with that 50 point clutch OPS bump
  • A further 57 (36.1%, including “Captain Clutch”) have had only one such season

So, on the premise that a player must repeat a performance to show that it was more than just luck, almost 56% of today’s 5-year veteran players can make no such claim regarding clutch performance, even at the absolute minimum test for repeat performance.

So, what about the other 44% of those players who have shown that 50 point clutch OPS bump more than once? Among active players with at least 5 seasons of 400 PA, these are the hitters to do that most consistently.

Rk Player Clutch Seasons Total Seasons Percentage
1 Justin Upton 4 6 66.7%
2 Nick Markakis 5 8 62.5%
3 Corey Patterson 3 5 60.0%
3 Eric Hinske 3 5 60.0%
5 Adam LaRoche 4 8 50.0%
5 Victor Martinez 4 8 50.0%
7 Carlos Pena 4 9 44.4%
8 Cesar Izturis 3 7 42.9%
9 Bill Hall 2 5 40.0%
9 Chase Headley 2 5 40.0%
9 Cody Ross 2 5 40.0%
9 Evan Longoria 2 5 40.0%
9 Jerry Hairston 2 5 40.0%
9 Miguel Olivo 2 5 40.0%

For players with 10 or more seasons of 400 PA, these are the clutch leaders.

Rk Player Clutch Seasons Total Seasons Percentage
1 A.J. Pierzynski 5 13 38.5%
2 David Ortiz 4 12 33.3%
2 Juan Pierre 4 12 33.3%
4 Miguel Tejada 4 13 30.8%
5 Mark Kotsay 3 10 30.0%
5 Mark Teixeira 3 10 30.0%
5 Matt Holliday 3 10 30.0%
5 Rafael Furcal 3 10 30.0%
9 Alex Rodriguez 5 17 29.4%
10 Adrian Beltre 4 15 26.7%

So, as might be expected, maintaining clutch performance over the course of a career gets harder the longer you play. Yet, when over half of today’s 5-year veteran players cannot do this more than once in a career, I’m inclined to believe that more than luck is involved if a player can do this in even one season out of four over a career of 10+ seasons.

So, those are the leaders for most seasons. Who are the career leaders (min. 3000 PA) in clutch performance among active players?

Rk Player Split G OPS OPStot Diff PA PAtot AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG tOPS+
1 Corey Patterson Late & Close 566 .748 .691 .057 778 4499 700 185 39 5 23 69 46 191 .264 .315 .433 117
2 Prince Fielder Late & Close 623 .959 .916 .043 819 5612 677 206 37 1 40 123 127 166 .304 .420 .539 110
3 Victor Martinez Late & Close 658 .874 .833 .041 865 5487 761 237 50 2 27 135 91 107 .311 .385 .489 110
4 Carlos Pena Late & Close 699 .852 .813 .039 923 5830 767 188 35 2 49 150 137 257 .245 .365 .488 110
5 Ryan Doumit Late & Close 448 .804 .766 .038 582 3241 512 139 29 1 22 73 50 114 .271 .343 .461 110
6 Cody Ross Late & Close 475 .817 .780 .037 657 3562 581 162 31 0 26 95 61 160 .279 .350 .466 110
7 Evan Longoria Late & Close 369 .905 .870 .035 498 3419 419 113 22 2 27 93 69 114 .270 .380 .525 109
8 Miguel Olivo Late & Close 501 .727 .692 .035 677 3968 627 157 25 5 26 79 35 192 .250 .297 .431 111
9 Nick Swisher Late & Close 628 .854 .820 .034 854 5647 709 189 38 1 35 105 131 215 .267 .383 .471 109
10 Aramis Ramirez Late & Close 913 .879 .846 .033 1214 7939 1059 310 50 5 56 203 125 201 .293 .371 .508 109
11 Justin Upton Late & Close 411 .863 .830 .033 542 3673 477 133 31 0 26 74 55 145 .279 .356 .507 107
12 Kelly Johnson Late & Close 491 .795 .762 .033 659 4174 566 151 32 6 18 81 76 157 .267 .355 .440 109
13 Rafael Furcal Late & Close 789 .782 .749 .033 1068 7200 887 255 41 5 15 95 143 151 .287 .386 .396 110
14 Yadier Molina Late & Close 512 .772 .743 .029 696 4601 615 177 33 0 16 72 58 61 .288 .352 .420 108
15 Asdrubal Cabrera Late & Close 378 .773 .748 .025 527 3455 456 130 26 3 9 68 50 94 .285 .359 .414 107
16 Nate McLouth Late & Close 427 .776 .752 .024 595 3575 501 123 23 3 22 71 72 123 .246 .341 .435 106
17 Xavier Nady Late & Close 432 .779 .756 .023 564 3199 499 133 22 0 21 77 48 110 .267 .342 .437 107
18 Nick Markakis Late & Close 582 .823 .801 .022 805 5256 700 213 43 2 16 87 88 125 .304 .383 .440 106
19 Chase Headley Late & Close 419 .783 .765 .018 573 3413 500 135 27 4 14 61 62 139 .270 .359 .424 105
20 Jeff Francoeur Late & Close 595 .743 .725 .018 823 4959 751 191 43 6 26 108 52 159 .254 .311 .431 104
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/25/2013.

So, many of the same names, as would be expected. Also, Ryan Doumit, the 2013 clutch leader, also cracks the top 5 on the career list. But, only Corey Patterson has maintained that 50 point clutch OPS bump for his career.

You might be wondering why I’ve focused this discussion exclusively on active players. Here’s why. Corey Patterson’s leading 57 point clutch OPS bump fails to crack the top 20 among all players who have played their entire careers since 1950. More than anything else, that speaks to the effect that late inning relief specialists have had on today’s game. That said, here is that career list for players who played their entire careers (min. 3000 PA) since 1950.

Rk Player Split G OPS OPStot Diff PA PAtot AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG tOPS+
1 Mickey Mantle Late & Close 1149 1.101 .977 .124 1472 9907 1165 375 55 14 97 241 298 253 .322 .458 .643 125
2 Pat Meares Late & Close 388 .783 .673 .110 508 3560 469 145 26 5 9 64 18 96 .309 .339 .443 132
3 Dan Ford Late & Close 550 .849 .750 .099 763 4582 678 204 41 7 25 122 55 132 .301 .356 .493 125
4 Jerry Lynch Late & Close 582 .886 .792 .094 681 3145 615 181 24 8 35 126 58 87 .294 .355 .530 122
5 Mike Shannon Late & Close 420 .784 .698 .086 583 3056 525 148 24 3 19 81 41 96 .282 .336 .448 124
6 Roberto Clemente Late & Close 1257 .919 .835 .084 1719 10211 1526 521 69 26 48 234 163 210 .341 .404 .515 121
7 Billy Gardner Late & Close 457 .700 .620 .080 650 3890 572 155 33 2 6 51 48 60 .271 .333 .367 126
7 Denny Doyle Late & Close 437 .691 .611 .080 579 3572 517 150 21 2 1 36 45 56 .290 .347 .344 126
9 Darin Erstad Late & Close 782 .821 .743 .078 1029 6628 906 271 43 9 27 150 89 150 .299 .365 .456 121
10 Billy Martin Late & Close 413 .746 .669 .077 542 3716 498 148 17 4 11 56 23 46 .297 .333 .414 123
11 Steve Braun Late & Close 704 .814 .738 .076 861 4295 723 214 38 6 12 91 121 87 .296 .399 .415 121
12 Mike Lum Late & Close 690 .762 .689 .073 868 4001 756 206 25 5 24 120 84 113 .272 .348 .414 121
13 Jim Wynn Late & Close 1012 .873 .802 .071 1387 8011 1158 323 50 8 57 168 207 231 .279 .389 .484 117
14 Dave Chalk Late & Close 417 .704 .636 .068 574 3330 484 132 14 1 6 48 65 55 .273 .361 .343 122
15 Hideki Matsui Late & Close 530 .889 .822 .067 690 5066 607 182 33 2 31 102 75 121 .300 .375 .514 115
16 David Bell Late & Close 622 .782 .716 .066 825 5380 732 201 42 1 28 99 59 112 .275 .333 .449 117
17 Gus Triandos Late & Close 583 .799 .734 .065 771 4424 679 185 40 2 26 86 76 101 .272 .347 .452 118
17 Joe Azcue Late & Close 436 .713 .648 .065 574 3094 517 144 18 3 9 49 46 58 .279 .336 .377 120
19 Tony Kubek Late & Close 513 .731 .667 .064 709 4493 635 176 34 8 10 69 48 57 .277 .328 .403 119
20 Ben Oglivie Late & Close 852 .848 .786 .062 1119 6598 975 283 46 7 42 161 114 156 .290 .367 .481 116
20 Ron LeFlore Late & Close 565 .796 .734 .062 790 4872 718 223 29 12 12 81 57 129 .311 .362 .435 117
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/25/2013.
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Bill Johnson
Bill Johnson
10 years ago

I’ve seen people try to discredit the Jeter clutch description by by pointing out that his post season line is pretty close to his career line. He does have the biggest sample size of any post season player. Given that, and that you are generally going to face better pitching, pitchers pulled earlier when struggling, and a possible negative impact from colder weather, wouldn’t approximating his career line over a full season’s worth of post season appearances confirm a conclusion that has been better on the big stage?

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
10 years ago

Here’s BR’s definition of Late & Close:
Late & Close are Plate Appearances in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.

no statistician but
no statistician but
10 years ago

Seeing Mantle at the top of the career list here, leading by a sizable margin, with only one other HOFer in the top 20 and only Clemente and Wynn with careers comparable in length—it all makes me feel a little strange to have verified what I kind of knew instinctively back when I was growing up—that for whatever reason Mantle’s intensity in the late innings was something considerably above the ordinary. Those who never saw him play, meaning most of you who contribute to this site, may only have the caricature of the drinker, the clubhouse jokester, the post-career failure,… Read more »

bells
bells
10 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Reading you say that makes me wish the split finder went farther back; I’d be interested in seeing if the legend of Ty Cobb as someone who couldn’t stand losing, for example, was supported by any evidence. In fact, even since 1950, it would be interesting to see which top players were ‘clutch’ like Mantle and which ones systematically underperformed (and how those match the historical perceptions).

aweb
aweb
10 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Cynical thinking – maybe the hangovers were hurting the early-game PAs, and late in a game was about the only time either player was 100% sober during the day. I’d expect most lists like this to be dominated by older players, facing tiring starters and few relief specialists. It’s damn impressive that Erstad, a modern lefty, did this against a lot of LOOGYs (I would assume). The opposite reasoning holds too though – anomalous players with a true reverse platoon split might be in a position to benefit in the last 20 years during late/close situations. But these hitters are… Read more »

Dr. Remulak
Dr. Remulak
10 years ago
Reply to  aweb

…and on that modern day lefty note, a tip of the cap to Hideki Matsui. Add his WS performance, and it’s pretty safe to call him clutch.

no statistician but
no statistician but
10 years ago
Reply to  aweb

Mantle’s first inning stats are very close to those of Mays. As for relief pitchers, Mantle’s .312 BA in first appearances against RPs sort of indicates that he might possibly have had something on besides taking advantage of tired starters.

mosc
mosc
10 years ago

Mantle, to me, was a man terrified to his core of failure. He succeeded as he did by driven NOT to fail. Some players lust after success (Henderson, Bonds), some to compete (Rose, Jeter), others hate losing (Martin, Smoltz), but I think Mantle’s camp of the fear of failing is equally represented. Dick Hayhurst talks about this in his books as his central reason for playing early on very eloquently. Mantle to me was the best talent ever. A switch hitting Barry Bonds with a better throwing arm. A faster, more agile Babe Ruth. Basically a guy not unlike Willy… Read more »

John Autin
Editor
10 years ago

Yogi Berra didn’t make Doug’s career list for late-and-close because his career began before 1950, so a small percentage of his PAs have unknown splits. But he was right there with Mickey in clutch performance: Late and close OPS: Mantle, +.124 (+13%), 1st among those with 5,000 career PAs Berra, +.066 (+8%), 12th … High-leverage OPS: Mantle, +.057 (+6%), 67th Berra, +.063 (+8%), 24th And in the Clutch metric that birtelcom mentioned, Berra really shined: Among those with 5,000 PAs of known splits, Berra’s Clutch total ranked 6th, and his rate was 12th. (Mantle, BTW, has a slight negative Clutch… Read more »

paget
paget
10 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

So interesting to me to see Yogi and Mantle paired side by side here. Growing up, I’d always heard from my dad (who, like seemingly every other kid in his generation, worshiped Mantle like a god) that he was always extremely nervous when the Mick came up to the plate with the game on the line. Even though Mantle was his hero, dad never felt like he delivered when it really mattered, and that, actually, Yogi was the player all Yankee fans wanted to see come to the plate in clutch situations, since he seemingly always drove in the run… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
10 years ago
Reply to  paget

I saw Mantle and Yogi play. In any tight situation either one of those guys was the one I wanted to see at bat, although I favored Mickey a bit more. From 1945 to date Mantle has 12 walk-off HR, second most in that category.

Hartvig
Hartvig
10 years ago

Almost 1 out of every 5 of Jerry Lynch’s at bats came in a high pressure situation- not surprising for arguably the greatest pinch hitter of all time. On this list and at a glance only Mike Lum comes close on a percentage of at bats basis.

Ed
Ed
10 years ago

Doug’s post highlights the difficulty of determining what constitutes clutch hitting. Look at his final chart. In the #7 position, we see a tie between Denny Doyle and Billy Gardner. The problem is that even though they were both better in late/close games than they were overall, they were both still bad (.691 and .700 OPS respectively). If you were to construct the opposite chart, you’d find that some of the biggest underachievers in late/close situations (e.g., Jim Edmonds, Darryl Strawberry), still outperform Doyle and Gardner in these situations. So at the end of the day, who do who want… Read more »

Ed
Ed
10 years ago
Reply to  Ed

BTW, in researching my #9 above, I am happy to report that the Yankees just gave $85 million to the biggest late/clutch underperformer of all time. Brian McCann has an overall OPS of .823 vs .614 in late/close situations for a difference of -.209. Only two players, Jermaine Dye and Troy Tulowitzki (-.184 and -.169) are even anywhere near him.

Ed
Ed
10 years ago
Reply to  Doug

No doubt Doug and I wasn’t trying to be critical. Just wanting to point out one reason why it’s difficult to agree on what clutch is and whether or not it exists.

deal
10 years ago

As a Phillies fan I am absolutely shocked to See David Bell on the All-time lits.

Steven
Steven
10 years ago

Big grin when I saw Mike Shannon only four places behind Mantle. “Old Abner has done it again!”

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
10 years ago

Mantle’s extra-inning OPS of 1.315 is the highest for all players with at least 50 PA in extras.

John Autin
Editor
10 years ago

Outstanding, Doug.

Fleshing out your note on the impact of relievers on late-and-close numbers: For 2009-13 combined, the late-and-close OPS was .037 less than overall (.690 vs. .727), about a 5% gap.

Comparing late-and-close OPS to overall OPS in 5-year chunks:

— 1959-63: +.003 (.714-.711).
— 1969-73: +.005 (.695-.690).
— 1979-83: -.006 (.705-.711).
— 1989-93: -.022 (.688-.710).
— 1999-03: -.030 (.734-.764).
— 2009-13: -.037 (.690-.727).

The OPS gap is concentrated in slugging. The late-and-close OBP for 2009-13 is just 1% less than overall, but the SLG difference is over 8%, of which about 6% is in BA.

birtelcom
Editor
10 years ago

It’s interesting that we are using the late and close split as a measure of clutch here. B-ref does actually have a stat it calls “Clutch”, which, if I understand it correctly, compares a player’s Win Probability Added to his context-neutral Win Probability Added. Without getting too technical, that means “Clutch” measures the game-importance of every PA for a hitter and then checks whether he his performance gets better or worse based on the level of importance of his PAs. It has the advantage of analyzing the importance of every PA rather than trying to pick one particular split and… Read more »

birtelcom
Editor
10 years ago
Reply to  Doug

–You are correct that if you want to avoid the impact on a clutch calculation of PAs that in themselves low-leverage events, you would want to avoid b-ref’s “Clutch” stat, because it does include the (limited) effect of those PAs. –Trout’s overall OPS in 2013 was .988, but his late and close OPS was only .731. That would go a long way to explain why his RE24 could be high but his Clutch number be low. (RE24 includes leverage within innings — that is factors of men on base and number of outs — but not the game level leverage… Read more »

John Autin
Editor
10 years ago

A team tangent on late-and-close stats: There is a significant spread in team opportunities, which roughly tracks the teams’ won-lost records. In 2013, late-and-close PAs as a percentage of all PAs ranged from 21.3% for Arizona, down to 14.3% for St. Louis. Eight of the top nine in this percentage finished .500 or worse, while nine of the bottom 10 had winning records. Team performance in late-and-close may be less important than avoiding such situations. Five of the bottom seven in late-and-close OPS (relative to overall OPS) were playoff teams — STL, BOS, DET, OAK and CIN, all at -12%… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
10 years ago

NSB@5, beautiful bit of writing. You reminded me of the horrible Sunday after Mickey hit a grand slam in a Friday night game. It was too late for the suburban edition of the NY Times for Saturday, and on Sunday, out of all Sundays, for some crazy reason the paper didn’t have the Sports Section in it. I turned the paper upside down. I pulled it apart. I looked inside sections to see if it got stuck there. I did it a second and a third time. No sports section, and, in the time before 24 hour a day sports… Read more »

fireworks
fireworks
10 years ago

The first thing that really interested me was seeing Bill Hall. I sez to meself, I sez, “Bill Hall is active?!” I see he played 7 games in 2012. And in the minors in 2013. Okay. Bill Hall is active.

Cyril Morong
Cyril Morong
9 years ago

“More than anything else, that speaks to the effect that late inning relief specialists have had on today’s game.”

That is probably the case. I have 2 studies that support that idea

http://cybermetric.blogspot.com/2010/07/was-it-easier-to-be-good-clutch-hitter.html

http://cybermetric.blogspot.com/2009/10/did-increased-use-of-relief-pitching.html

http://cybermetric.blogspot.com/2009/09/clutch-hitting-over-time-1952-2008.html