A handicapper’s guide to coming HOF elections

Another HOF vote has come and gone, happily with better results than last year’s fiasco. But, there will be some crowded ballots in the next few years, so one can only hope that deserving players don’t drop off with unseemly haste.

There will, in fact, be so many notable players on coming ballots that I thought it could be useful to try to organize them in some structured way, if only to provide an objective way to assess the performance of voters in the coming elections.

After the jump, a handicapper’s guide to coming Hall of Fame elections.

Let’s start with a look at the current Hall of Fame members based on their all-time positional WAR ranking as of the end of the 2013 season. For position players, ranking in the WAR top 10 for a position constitutes tier I, in the top 25 tier II and outside the top 25 is tier III. The same idea for pitchers except that for tiers I, II and III, it’s the top 40, top 100 and outside the top 100. For DH, I’ve arbitrarily set a 60 WAR minimum to be considered in tier I.

HOF Inductees by Position

So, the voters haven’t done a terrible job. 75% of the enshrined players do come from the tier I and tier II groupings. With 211 current HOF players (those elected for their play in the major leagues), a uniform distribution by position should be about 17 or 18 players at each position and about 70 pitchers. Thus, I’ve shaded the rows to indicate positions that are under-represented (green) and over-represented (red). The percentage scores that are highlighted indicate where the current distribution by tier may be a little out of whack with greater representation from a lower tier than from a higher one.

Next are the breakouts by position. I called this a handicapper’s guide, but I’m not going to be quoting any odds on future candidates (though, you are welcome to do so in your comments). For each position, I’ve grouped players into the three tiers based on their career WAR ranking. The playing position assigned to a player is the one each played more frequently than any other, but a player’s WAR rating includes his total (all positions) batting or pitching WAR. In a few cases (I’ll tell you when we come to them), I’ve added together batting and pitching WAR for players who had significant quantities of both.

For each position, the Hall of Fame members and contenders are presented as follows:

  • The top line shows the number of players in the Hall of Fame by WAR-based tier. At the right are the players and WAR totals for the tier III HOFers. In assessing future candidates, players will probably need to be better than these tier III HOFers to have a decent chance of election.
  • Next line are the the tier I (red) and tier II (black) players who have been snubbed, as they are either no longer on the ballot (including players dropped in the 2014 election) or have been declared ineligible. In assessing future candidates, these players may provide some guidance on borderline cases, or they may be used to assess the players who will  drop from future ballots, perhaps unjustly.
  • The last two lines are the players to be handicapped. First are the players currently on the ballot, by tier I (red), tier II (black) and tier III (light brown). The ballot refers to the holdovers after the 2014 election, but not including players eligible for the 2015 vote. Next are the tier I (red) and tier II (black) players who are not yet eligible for election, many of whom will be appearing on upcoming ballots.

Pitcher

So, now that we have the preliminaries out of the way, let’s start with the pitchers.

HOF P

The WAR scores shown are for pitching WAR only, except for Bob Lemon, Bob Caruthers, Tony Mullane and Wes Ferrell who have their total batting and pitching WAR shown. Also, Red Ruffing’s total WAR puts him among the tier I HOF members.

I considered separating the analysis into starters and relievers but ultimately decided against that in view of the voters’ preference to only recognize relievers who were either the “pioneers” of modern relief pitching or, among later pitchers, the undisputed masters of their craft. Of course, the latter category is currently populated only by Dennis Eckersley, recognized in his time much as Mariano Rivera is today. So, now that I’ve mentioned him, yes, I fully expect Mariano will be a first ballot pick to join Eck, confirming the lofty performance standard required of future HOF relievers.

The tier I current and future candidates all look like safe bets to me. Also Roy Halladay (just outside tier I). Hard to know how voters will treat John Smoltz; will he get extra credit for excelling at both starting and relieving or will he be the odd man out now that two of his long-time staff mates have been enshrined (probably the latter, unfortunately). Pettitte, as a Yankee, stands a good chance, but he will have to wait a while. If last season was a one-off and CC returns to form, he’s clearly on a HOF path (and he may be anyway, even if last year was the beginning of the end). Hudson and Buehrle (and Jamie Moyer, just outside the top 100) will likely come up short, as consistently very good pitchers but never really great.

Catcher

HOF C

Catchers are currently under-represented but it would seem that should be rectified soon. Hard to see Piazza or Pudge having any problems getting in. Joe Mauer is an interesting case; he’s on a HOF trajectory but, since he stopped winning batting titles, it seems (to me) like he doesn’t get much notice anymore. Posada will get consideration based on being a Yankee, but no such luck for Kendall.

First Base

HOF 1B

Tough competition at first with two 70+ WAR players outside the top 10, and a bunch of 50+ WAR players outside the top 25. Albert, of course, will be a first ballot selection and Thome will make it too. Bagwell should be in already; hopefully, it won’t be too much longer. McGwire and Helton are on the bubble; I don’t think either would be a bad choice, but my gut feel is both will come up short. Same for Fred McGriff, on the wrong side of the WAR top 25.

Second Base

HOF 2B

With Biggio barely missing induction this year, seems he will almost certainly make it in the next few tries. As the best slugging second baseman since Rajah, there should be a spot for Jeff Kent, but that may be my wishful thinking. My hunch is Utley‘s late career start will leave his counting stats a bit shy of voters’ expectations for a HOFer. Robinson Cano moves into the top 25 in 2014 and is very much on a HOF trajectory.

Third Base

HOF 3B

The most under-represented position in the Hall will get a boost as Chipper (lock) and Beltre (almost a lock) should both make it, with matching counting milestones of 400 HR, 500 doubles, 1500 RBI and  2500 hits. The hedge on Beltre is whether voters see A-Rod more as a third baseman than as a shortstop (since he hasn’t played short in a decade, bet on the former). If A-Rod gets in first, Beltre may have a tough time making it. All of that means tough luck for Scott Rolen, joining Graig Nettles as tier I players in the “snubbed” category. Miggy is obviously on a HOF trajectory and a case could be made that he’s already there; still, he started to show his age some last season so he’ll need to follow David Ortiz’s example and slim down to get the most out of his talent and career. Perhaps too soon to offer an opinion on David Wright who moves into the top 25 in 2014.

Shortstop

HOF SS

Last chance for Alan Trammell will come and go as he joins teammate Lou Whitaker among the most undeserved snubs. Derek Jeter will, of course, sail in. A-Rod’s baggage will make for a tougher road, more especially if voters see him as one of several deserving third basemen (as many likely will). Omar Vizquel (outside the top 25) will get some courtesy votes but will be gone pretty quickly.

Just a note that Monte Ward is included among the tier II HOF shortstops based on his combined batting and pitching WAR, despite probably more notoriety in the latter role, with his 69 wins and 12.2 WAR both tops among teenage hurlers.

Left Field

HOF LF

Is 15 years long enough for voters to warm to Barry? Maybe, but he’ll have to wait a while. Raines and Manny are well clear of the best left-fielders not in the Hall but they too will likely have to wait. Hopefully, none of them drops off the ballot  – that would be a shame.

Center Field

HOF CF

Junior is a first ballot selection and Beltran should also make it with a boost from his post-season play. And, Andruw gets in too with his home runs and defense (especially the defense). The rest are on a par with the group they will join, as the best players not in the Hall.

Right Field

HOF RF

Despite being by far the most over-represented position in the Hall, Larry Walker should eventually shake the Coors stigma and get in. Gary Sheffield will get a look with his 500 homers but it won’t be enough to make up for his defense (-196 WAR Fielding Runs; only Jeter has a lower total). I would have picked Ichiro as a lock a couple of years ago, but his odds are getting longer the more he hangs on as a replacement level player. Still, I’ll go with almost a lock as voters will probably rationalize that his numbers deserve to be “bumped up” because of his late start on these shores.

Designated Hitter

HOF DH

Kudos to the voters for not penalizing the Big Hurt for playing a majority of his career at DH. The good news is Thomas’s selection should make it easier for voters to warm to Edgar. The bad news for Martinez – as good as his numbers are, they aren’t in the same class with Thomas, where they probably need to be to get past the DH stigma. Ortiz‘s stock is a mile high right now and how can you not love a guy with a smile as big as all outdoors. Still, he’s now 38, so not much time left to get 70 more home runs for the 500 milestone that he will probably need for serious consideration.

So, that’s how I see it. Now, it’s your turn.

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Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
10 years ago

Part of Jeter’s iconic status is, of course, tied to the fact that he is a shortstop – the leader – the Captain position.

But I can’t help but wonder what history will think of him, as defensive numbers become more and more part of the everyday conversation.

He’s sitting on 71.5 WAR.
That’s less than Jim Thome, who was a poor 1st baseman / DH.

If Jeter were moved to left field early in his career, would he be a 100 WAR guy?

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
10 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Not unless he was a freakishly good defender in left. Remember he gets a huge position adjustment for playing short, which makes up more than half of his -rfield, while corner outfielders get penalized for position. Jeter’s dwar is roughly equivalent to an average defensive outfielder with a similarly long career. Consider another HOFer with a similar but slightly better bat: Tony Gwynn. He was a very good outfielder early, and then a poor one later. His career rField is 6, so overall performance right about average. But his rPos is -85, while Jeter’s is +130. That almost makes up… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
10 years ago

Thanks. That helps me understand the positional adjustments a bit better.

But, while I know that oWar + dWar do not = WAR…

Jeter’s 94 oWar
and 71 WAR sure make it look like his defense kills him.

But if I understand your explanation, Jeter would not have amassed 94 oWar if he was playing a more offense-expectant position.

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
10 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

exactly.

His oWAR would be in the mid 80s at 2B/3B/CF and in the low 70s at a corner position.

Phil
10 years ago

I’ve argued about this on a message board, and an e-mail I sent to Bill James led to a long analysis by him on his site, but I say, whether he deserves to or not, there’s no way Andruw Jones gets elected by the writers. His decline was too sudden, too early, and too swift—and you can add the ongoing logjam on top of that.

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
10 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Agreed, the biggest problem for Jones is that most did not see him as the best defensive CF of all time, or even in the conversation. That’s what the defensive metrics say, and you have to mostly believe them to get HOF career value out of Andruw Jones.

I think there’s very little chance that the writers vote him in. He’s much more likely to drop off the ballot in year 1 or 2.

bstar
bstar
10 years ago
Reply to  Phil

I don’t see Andruw getting in, either. -His 400+ career HR total will be discounted because of the era he played in. -His 51-HR season looks really steroid-suspicious. So does the sudden increase in his body size. -never a max-effort guy, voters won’t like the way he got fat and lazy after signing with the Dodgers after his Braves career. -the steep and sudden decline mentioned by Phil (it’s eerily similar to Dale Murphy’s decline). -the backlog of players may be the same/even worse once Andruw gets on the ballot. I’m not sure exactly how voters are going to view… Read more »

bstar
bstar
10 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Let me rephrase, then: Andruw’s 51-HR season (combined with an increased bulkiness that year) will be looked at suspiciously by voters. Would I ding him for that? No.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
10 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Andruw is not done, y’know.
Just led a championship team in runs and ribbies.

Hartvig
Hartvig
10 years ago
Reply to  bstar

I think that both Joe DiMaggio and Tris Speaker would get some traction with BBWAA voters as the 2nd greatest fielding center fielder of all time. Deserved or not, it’s certainly part of their reputations.

Richie Ashburn might get a little love as well,

birtelcom
birtelcom
10 years ago
Reply to  Phil

I wonder if there is a generalization to be made that among guys with very strong peaks, those who have their peaks early in their careers but then have long periods of averageness thereafter (e.g. Andruw) fare worse in public perception and in HOF voting then guys who have a very strong peak late in their careers either because of abruptly shortened careers or because they were late bloomers. The late peak guys may simply leave a more indelible impression of greatness than early peak guys, even where the overall career achievement level is similar.

Phil
10 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

If you looked into that, I think it would absolutely turn out to be true. Paul Molitor and Craig Biggio (election imminent) come to mind as a couple of guys who didn’t hit their stride till their 30s—there must be more. (Not disputing that the great majority of players peak around 27.) On the other side, the Murphys, Mattinglys, Garciaparras, and Andruws. There are lots more of them, and I don’t think they ever break through in HOF voting. Last impressions, and just in general I think you’re expected to be productive for some or all of your 30s.

bstar
bstar
10 years ago
Reply to  Phil

I talked about this last year and do believe it’s true, that’s it’s not really a good thing to peak too early.

Kenny Lofton is a good example. His three best years were his first three full seasons in the bigs, though to be fair they were his age 25-27 seasons. People forget the electrifying Lofton in his prime and instead remember the journeyman outfielder he became later in his career.

paget
paget
10 years ago
Reply to  bstar

On the other hand, you get a guy like Dwight Evans. A terrific, almost Hall-worthy, player who never got the propers he deserved because his excellent years came in his 30s once his reputation had already been fixed as a solid, though not extraordinary player.

Basically it’s hard either way I think, peaking too late or too early. People have an implicit career-arc in their minds that it can be difficult to stray from.

Phil
10 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Forgot about Evans. Also, I should have said “some or most of your 30s”—voters don’t expect you to be productive for all of your 30s.

Hartvig
Hartvig
10 years ago

One thing that your breakdown seems to re-enforce is that the talent distribution at positions is not necessarily equal. I know it just uses a single number as a measure but I still think it’s telling. If you look at Alan Trammell sitting among the second tier of shortstops with a 70.3 while Carlos Beltran, Kenny Lofton, Manny Ramirez, Tim Raines, Craig Nettles and Scott Rolen are all in the top 10 with sub-70 totals and I didn’t even include catchers, DH’s or pitchers (where we are admittedly looking at top 40 but the numbers are still sub-70). While some… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
10 years ago

Doug: Handicapping aside, your judgment here is based solely on WAR, but the institution is named The Hall of Fame. The trash heap approach to the benighted 25% in your charts above seems pretty arbitrary to me. There are a few players within your hallowed 75% that I don’t think belong in the Hall, Hoyt Wilhelm and Ernie Lombardi, to name two, and several players beyond the pale who do. George Sisler and Dizzy Dean come to mind, dominant players who suffered illness, injury, or even death (Addie Joss) that precluded them from building their WAR in their declining years.… Read more »

birtelcom
birtelcom
10 years ago

In most cases, all three of raw WAR, traditional conventional wisdom and what might be characterized as sophisticated, sabermetrically-informed evaluation, will all agree on who belongs in the Hall of Fame. It’s usually only at the relative margins that these three will disagree. For that reason, it can be useful to use raw WAR for purposes of organizing the discussion — it can help focus attention on categories that need more subtle evaluation, such as the guys with great peaks but short careers. The overlap of all methods with respect to most HOF guys also makes it possible to say,… Read more »

David Horwich
David Horwich
10 years ago

Doug – You suggest Pettitte and Posada may receive a “Yankee boost” when they come on the ballot, but I don’t see much evidence for such a boost. For example – Mattingly has one year left on the ballot but clearly isn’t going to make it; Bernie Williams lasted 2 years on the ballot, Graig Nettles lasted 4 years, Willie Randolph was one & done. Ron Guidry was on the ballot 9 years but never drew as much as 10% of the vote, Thurman Munson stayed on the full 15 but never cracked 10% after his first year. The recent… Read more »

Bryan O'Connor
Editor
10 years ago
Reply to  David Horwich

I totally agree, David. I studied the possibility of a pro-Yankee bias a few years ago here:

http://replacementlevel.wordpress.com/2011/08/26/is-there-regional-bias-in-hall-of-fame-selections/

Short answer: too many Yankees from the first half of the 20th century are in the Hall, but that’s due in large part to all the World Series they played in and won. The New York Giants are overrepresented as well, but they won a few titles and Frankie Frisch’s Veterans Committee dragged a bunch of them in. Since 1950, there’s no real regional bias except that voters seem to hate the Tigers.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
10 years ago
Reply to  Doug

@18, 20, 21; I agree that while there is indeed some “Yankee bias”, it is fairly weak and selectively applied. For every Yankees HOF candidate that’s benefited from it, there’s another that doesn’t seem to have benefitted very little, if at all. For instance, Thurmon Munson (15.5%) and Joe Gordon (28.5%; finally selected by the Vets in 2009, 59 years after he retired) stayed on the ballot for all 15 years with decent %’s – but so did far less qualified candidates Roger Maris (32.4%) and Don Larsen (12.1%). Munson and Gordon don’t seem to have benefited much from ‘Yankees… Read more »

paget
paget
10 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Just a small point of clarification, Doug: You write “He [Mattingly] is a player lacking HOF credentials and who never played on a championship team (or even appeared in the playoffs).” Mattingly finished his Yankee career with a playoff appearance in 1995. (Quite a brilliant one actually, ops 1.148.) My sense is that Mattingly is the exception, not the rule for Yankee players’ relationship to the Hall. I thoroughly agree that he has benefited from his limelight exposure in New York. But I don’t think that many others have. If Pettitte garners substantial support then that will definitely be due… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
10 years ago
Reply to  paget

228/paget,

I was kind of hoping that no one would notice my gap in logic concerning Maris and Larsen’s 15-year rides on the HOF ballot. Johnny Vander Meer also had a full 15-year run, despite his losing record – we all know why…

mosc
mosc
10 years ago
Reply to  paget

Pettitte and Posada’s best asset is the volume of their post season career. You can say “because they were Yankees” if you want, but you’re talking about two players with large post season resumes, particularly in the case of Pettitte. I think the HOF vote is much more emotional than statistical. Mattingly felt like a HOFer to many people so he’s getting some votes. I think it shows one area where statistics are creeping in that he doesn’t have more support than he does. Puckett had a wider peak but still was under qualified and sailed in 82.1% first year.… Read more »

tomnorton
tomnorton
10 years ago
Reply to  mosc

Mosc..while I agree with most of your HOF predictions, I think you missed the mark with Halladay. 7 time top 5 in Cy Young vote (including 6 straight years) including 2 time winner makes him at least as strong a candidate as Schilling if not stronger.

mosc
mosc
10 years ago
Reply to  mosc

2749.1 IP is less than Pedro. I think if anything pushes Halladay over the top it’ll be a playoff no hitter.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
10 years ago

Doug, I appreciate the tremendous amount of work you put into this. However, I have two issues: 1) PRESENTATION: It might’ve been better to present this separately by position, with several posts a week over a month or more. This is A LOT to take in all at once. 2) METHODOLOGY: I would’ve used Jay Jaffe’s JAWS HOF evaluation system (as listed on B-R), as that balances peak WAR equally against career WAR. This would make a better case for some of those above deemed “not worthy”, as ns b points out in #15 above. For instance, besides George Sisler… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
10 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

LA: While you’re t it why not include Mattingly along with Sisler. Here’s a comment of mine from last February.
There is a parallel between Mattingly and Sisler in that they both suffered debilitating medical problems in the middle of their careers. In his first 8 seasons Mattingly had an OPS+ of 144 but fell to 105 in the 6 seasons subsequent to his back injury. Sisler had an OPS+ of 155 for his first 8 seasons but fell to just 97 for the 7 seasons subsequent to his sinus/eye problems.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
10 years ago

@23/Richard, Good comparison between Sisler and Mattingly. However, I think Sisler is over the HOF bar, while Mattingly is under it. Several reasons: 1) PEAK: Sisler’s peak (1916-1922)is both longer than Mattingly’s (1984-89), and better. Mattingly was talked about as ‘best player in MLB” for a short time, in 1985-86. Sisler in 1920-22 was often considered ‘best player in MLB besides Ruth’. 2) Both were oustanding defensively, but Sisler could also steal bases. 3) Sisler had a longer career than Mattingly 4) Sisler was a player-manager for three years This is where JAWS comes in – the differences may seem… Read more »

David Horwich
David Horwich
10 years ago
Reply to  Doug

I liked the way the information was organized and presented; I found it interesting to see how the players ranked 11-25 have done in the voting.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
10 years ago
Reply to  Doug

@27/Doug, I’m glad you took my comments in #27 in the spirit in which they were offered. I didn’t consider that WAR would be much more user-friendly in the P-I index than JAWS. I don’t have a problem with your ‘tiering’ approach. If it’s a binary process, some guys are gonna be ‘in’, some guys are gonna be ‘out’, and a few are gonna be right on the borderline. I don’t think the one-number WAR/JAWS approach should always be the final word. For instance, looking at catchers, I’d rate Freehan as a much better better HOF candidate than Tenace, even… Read more »

tunatuna
tunatuna
10 years ago

Doug, Great presentation here. I feel very strongly that there are not enough Catcher’s in the Hall of Fame. It is the most demanding position of all. I have great respect for what these players go through. The 70’s were truly the Golden Age of catcher’s. Munson, Simmons and Freehan should all be in there. I always felt that Munson was one of the best. Munson’s career caught stealing percentage was an outstanding 44%! He is percentage points ahead of Bench in that regard – that is saying something. I also feel that it is alright for a catcher to… Read more »

Timmy Pea
Timmy Pea
10 years ago

I like the current HoF voting process. I think they (most writers) deserve credit for the low totals of Bonds and Clemens. When it’s all said and done 3 guys deserving of election on the first ballot got in and Biggio almost did. The silly “moralizing” complaints from mostly the SABRmeter/newstat folks is silly.

tunatuna
tunatuna
10 years ago
Reply to  Timmy Pea

I don’t know Timmy, I have always enjoyed looking at the traditional numbers, Home runs, runs, hits, rbi’s , etc….but I think the SABR/newstat “folks” are shedding a lot of light on other important factors. OBP, peak and such. I prefer to use both components in evaluating a players career. I think they are wise to use peak years the way that they do. However…when Tenace gets ranked at catcher ahead of Munson….that is a problem…Tenace only had 2 seasons where he caught more than 100 games….so the new stat folks are doing a fine job of things and still… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
10 years ago
Reply to  Timmy Pea

Timmy Pea,

Welcome back!

Jimbo
Jimbo
10 years ago

HOF voters are morons and their votes are hard to predict. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Omar Vizquel makes the hall of fame. You wrote that Manny will have to wait…..um yeah he’s gonna go the same way Palmeiro did. He won’t have to wait long to be off the ballot. The HOF voting process is a complete joke. The guys who are in and the guys who aren’t is hilarious. Glavine is first ballot but Mussina and Schilling aren’t even close when they were both better pitchers? Whitaker off the ballot immediately when he was more valuable… Read more »

Darien
10 years ago
Reply to  Jimbo

Alomar was second-ballot. But, yeah, I mostly agree with you. Clearly the voters are *very* heavily influenced by irrelevant factors, such as how much they like a player as a dude (Schilling and Killebrew on the ends of that scale), desire to micromanage when a player gets in (Alomar got 72% his first year and like 91% his second), and desire to give “courtesy votes” to players they liked in absolutely stacked years. And I won’t even touch the subject of players the voters (often baselessly) decide were “cheaters.” Not that I’m suggesting a singleminded “top percentage of WAR” Hall… Read more »

tunatuna
tunatuna
10 years ago
Reply to  Darien

@47 I agree, the voters are influenced a great deal on how much they like a dude…its ridiculous. At first the new statistical measures bothered me but I have given WAR and such a chance and there is clear value to it. Combining the old and the new is the best way to go in my opinion. Pretending that the new measures have no baring is being blind. I think the Hall could be MUCH, MUCH better…if it was up to me at least 20 new players would be in tomorrow….sadly this will not happen…because then they would have to… Read more »

Jimbo
Jimbo
10 years ago

Also, the voters could easily miss Beltre if he doesn’t get to 3000 hits. He could just go the way Whitaker went even if he has 100 WAR. Don’t underestimate how dumb they are. Good thing for him his career started so early, so he’ll get in based on his counting stats even though that’s nothing to do with why he should be in.

I have no idea what the voters will do with Andruw Jones.

Posada and Pettite might be first ballot don’t be surprised if they are.

David Horwich
David Horwich
10 years ago
Reply to  Jimbo

I doubt Posada will make the Hall of Fame, or even come particularly close; the notion that he might make it first ballot seems a little far-fetched. I would guess that Pettitte will draw substantial support and hang around the ballot for a long while, and might even get in one day, but again I doubt he’ll be a first ballot selection.

tunatuna
tunatuna
10 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Not to suggest that Posada is the equal of Piazza on offense but just curious as to where Piazza sits on the dWAR list. I bet it’s not that high on the list. Posada was an offensive force though and very durable – and 5 Championships….and ranking ahead of Fisk and Carter on any list is impressive.

Darien
10 years ago

I have a suspicion you’re underrating how much the steroid witch hunt is going to hurt players who fall under its cloud. A-Rod — even if Bud doesn’t decide to hit him with the ban stick — may very well be a lost cause at this point. Pudge, Piazza, Manny, Sheffield, Ortiz, and many many others are going to be looking at vote totals a lot lower than their numbers would indicate.