Adam Dunn and other single season disasters

Adam Dunn is now three years removed from his historic cratering to a 54 OPS+ in 2011. Since then, he has compiled almost as many strikeouts as total bases, but has still managed a modestly respectable 112 OPS+ with a nice total of 80 home runs and almost 200 RBI.

That one season of 54 OPS+ is the only time in Dunn’s 14-year career that he’s finished south of 100. While nobody else can say that about an OPS+ season in the 50s, other players have turned in truly dreadful campaigns the only time they’ve been below 100 OPS+. More after the jump on the very worst single seasons in otherwise consistently good careers.


For this analysis, I first identified all players with at least 10 seasons of 400+ PA. I reduced that list to include only those players with exactly one 400 PA season of OPS+ below 100. Finally, I selected the worst of those single seasons below 100 OPS+, being all of those seasons with OPS+ below 80. Here they are:

Rk Player OPS+ PA Year Age Tm Lg G R H HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Adam Dunn 54 496 2011 31 CHW AL 122 36 66 11 42 75 177 .159 .292 .277 .569 *D3/H9
2 Ken Singleton 62 404 1984 37 BAL AL 111 28 78 6 36 37 60 .215 .286 .289 .575 *DH
3 Mike Cameron 63 443 1998 25 CHW AL 141 53 83 8 43 37 101 .210 .285 .336 .621 *8/H9
4 Jim Bottomley 68 423 1935 35 CIN NL 107 44 103 1 49 18 24 .258 .294 .323 .617 *3H
5 Lou Whitaker 69 568 1980 23 DET AL 145 68 111 1 45 73 79 .233 .331 .283 .614 *4H
6 Jim Wynn 72 466 1971 29 HOU NL 123 38 82 7 45 56 63 .203 .302 .295 .596 *98H/7
7 Bill Madlock 75 435 1984 33 PIT NL 103 38 102 4 44 26 29 .253 .297 .323 .620 *5/H3
8 Roy Sievers 75 408 1950 23 SLB AL 113 46 88 10 57 34 42 .238 .305 .395 .700 *85H7
9 Mike Lowell 77 558 2005 31 FLA NL 150 56 118 8 58 46 58 .236 .298 .360 .658 *5H/4
10 Joe Adcock 77 422 1951 23 CIN NL 113 40 96 10 47 24 29 .243 .288 .380 .668 *7/H
11 George McQuinn 79 556 1946 36 PHA AL 136 47 109 3 35 64 62 .225 .317 .316 .633 *3/H
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/2/2014.

My hunch starting this was that I would see a lot of seasons early and late in a career. And there are those, but also quite a number of players like Dunn who cratered mid-career and managed to recover, at least to some degree.

Early Reverses

In this group are Roy Sievers, Joe Adcock, Lou Whitaker and Mike Cameron.

Roy Sievers‘ season was his second after winning RoY honors batting .308 with 16 HR, 91 RBI. That precipitous decline reduced Sievers to a part-time role, with just 453 PA and 88 OPS+ over the Browns’ final 3 years in St. Louis. With a fresh start in Baltimore, the Orioles botched one of their first moves, trading Sievers to Washington for Gil Coan, a light-hitting 32 year-old outfielder with just 3.3 career WAR in eight seasons as a Senator.

Joe Adcock‘s season was his second as a Red, and second under 100 OPS+, after posting 97 in 398 PA in his rookie campaign. To its credit, Cincinnati stuck with Adcock, only not long enough. Adcock started showing his form the next year, raising his BA and OBP each by 30+ points, and his SLG by 80 points. But, it wasn’t enough to keep Adcock out of a complicated 4-team off-season trade that turned out for the Reds as Adcock for Rocky Bridges and cash. Not Cincinnati’s most brilliant maneuver.

Lou Whitaker‘s season was his third as a Tiger regular, after 8.3 WAR over his first two years, including an RoY award. The Tigers of the 1960s and 1970s were known for hanging on to their young talent. That trait held true in this instance, to the Tigers’ great advantage over the next 15 seasons.

Mike Cameron‘s season was his second, after finishing 6th in RoY voting the year before. But, the White Sox figured they’d seen enough and sent him to the Reds for a young guy with a funny name, one Paul Konerko. Over their careers since then (1999), Cameron has out-WARed Konerko, by 40.6 to 30.1. But, Cincinnati only saw a glimpse of that, sending Cameron to Seattle the next season for Ken Griffey, who provided only 12.7 WAR for the Reds.

Late Lament

In this group are Jim Bottomley, George McQuinn and Ken Singleton.

Jim Bottomley was done and the Reds knew it, shipping the former Cardinal to the sad-sack Browns, and a reunion with manager Rogers Hornsby. Bottomley squeaked out a 101 OPS+ the next year, and then part-time duty in one final season.

George McQuinn looked like he was done, but wasn’t. After one disastrous season as an Athletic, the former Browns’ star landed on his feet in the Bronx where he posted 4.4 WAR as first baseman for the 1947 world champs.

Ken Singleton was done and everybody knew it. Last season for the Orioles’ star, after 10 years, 30 WAR and a world championship in Baltimore.

Mid-Career Meltdowns

This group, of course, is everybody else.

Jim Wynn‘s decline was as spectacular as it was sudden, coming after four seasons (age 25-28) averaging 150 OPS+. The Astros stuck with their star who rewarded them with a bounce-back 1972 campaign of 146 OPS+. But a 1973 slide to .220/.347/.395 resulted in Houston shipping the 31 year-old to the Dodgers, where he rebounded again to 7.7 WAR as LA claimed the NL pennant. Wynn had one more good season (4.8 WAR) with the Dodgers and an okay year (2.7 WAR) in Atlanta, before finishing up with part-time duty for the Yankees and Brewers.

Defending and 4-time batting champion Bill Madlock started slowly in 1984, then had a decent May (.298/.353/.330), but could never get on a roll after that, before his season was cut short by injury early in August. Madlock would have 3 more replacement level-type seasons for 3 teams, with OPS+ clear of 100, but totaling only 4.5 WAR.

Mike Lowell survived the Marlins’ post-World Series sell-off, but couldn’t survive his 2005 dud of a season, being dealt with Josh Beckett to the Red Sox, where both would figure prominently for the world champions of two seasons hence. But the Marlins know their ballplayers, fleecing Boston of two young stars (Hanley Ramirez and Annibal Sanchez) who would be fixtures with the Fish for the next 6 seasons.

And, then there was Adam Dunn‘s much documented cliff dive to .159/.292/.277. The one bright spot of that darkest season was the middle number in that slash, made possible by Dunn’s 75 walks, a rather remarkable total for someone with Dunn’s batting average. Dunn flirted with the Mendoza line again in 2012, but his 105 walks and 41 dingers made up for 222 whiffs. More of the same in 2013, and then his best April since 2009 this year. Dunn may yet drop out of this group with another sub-100 OPS+ season, but he has recovered from his dance with doom.

Honorable Mention

A couple of others worthy of mention who fit the bill except for a disqualifying season of 99 OPS+, the second under the 100 mark.

Rk Player OPS+ PA Year Age Tm Lg G AB R H HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Tony Cuccinello 60 459 1940 32 TOT NL 122 433 40 98 5 55 24 51 .226 .269 .312 .580 *54/H
2 Joe Gordon 79 431 1946 31 NYY AL 112 376 35 79 11 47 49 72 .210 .308 .338 .645 *4/H6
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/4/2014.

The Giants were riding high at 30-15 when they acquired veteran Tony Cuccinello from the Bees midway in the 1940 season. Cuccinello was batting .270 when New York grabbed him, an apparent perfect fit to fill a hole at second base where rookie Al Glossop was struggling with the bat. Instead, joining a general team collapse, Cuccinello posted a 50 OPS+ the rest of the 1940 season as the Giants tumbled to a 42-65 finish. The next year was spent toiling in Jersey City before New York gave “Cooch” his outright release. Three wartime seasons totaling only 393 PA and .233/.298/.289 hardly seemed like a harbinger for Cuccinello’s final act, a 3.1 WAR campaign at age 37 for the 1945 White Sox, the first of only four players (the others are Ted WilliamsRoberto Clemente and Barry Bonds) with a farewell age 37+ season of 3 WAR and 125 OPS+.

After two years of military service, 31 year-old Joe Gordon‘s 1946 return to the Yankees was unfortunately marred by a succession of injuries that kept him out the lineup for short periods throughout the season. Result: 79 OPS+, benching in September, and a ticket to Cleveland in the off-season. Gordon returned to his All-Star form with the Indians, posting 17.6 WAR for 1947-49, including a 1948 world championship season during which he raked at .304/.412/.600 for September as Cleveland edged out the Yankees and Red Sox to take the pennant. Revenge is sweet!

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paget
paget
9 years ago

Whenever I think of truly horrible offensive seasons my mind always turns to the early years of Ozzie Smith’s career. That ’79 season in particular is a beaut. What’s the record for most negative Rbat in a post-1920 season? It’s hard to think of a player being able to accumulate -35 Rbat in a season — Ozzie needed 649 PAs that year to do it (justifying his continued place in the line-up with his defense). What really blows your mind is that Dunn had his historic season as a guy who is designated to hit.

Artie Z.
Artie Z.
9 years ago
Reply to  paget

Ozzie had -34.7 Rbat in his 1979 season, which is “just” the 58th worst total post-1920. The worst is Jim Levey, who had -60.5 Rbat in 1933. A .195/.237/.240 line in 567 PAs, when the league was at .273/.342/.390, will do that for you. In 1931 Levey had a season of -45.0 Rbat (10th lowest all-time). Most of the players near the “top” of the list are 2B and SS from the 1930s. A more recent example is Neifi Perez, who had -46.8 Rbat in 2002. Perez has 4 seasons of worse than -30 Rbat. Searching pre-1920 there is only… Read more »

Hartvig
Hartvig
9 years ago
Reply to  Artie Z.

Levey seems to have been the complete no-hit/no-field player. In the 2 seasons mentioned he managed to also put up Rfield numbers of -8 and -17. Sandwiched in between was a season he produced -0.4WAR with -23 Rbat and -14 Rfield and received votes for the Leagues MVP.

no statistician but
no statistician but
9 years ago
Reply to  Hartvig

We discussed Levey’s 1932 season here a couple of years ago. For the first half he batted .321 and only really tanked the last two months. He hit .311 at home and .364 in games the Browns won. (The last figure, incidentally, .364, was Willie Mays’ B.A. in Giants victories in 1954, the year he won the batting championship and they beat the Indians in the WS.) In those 62 winning games Levey had an OPS of .905 despite hitting just two HRs and walking 8 times. I’d guess he played well over his head, but in those circumstances he… Read more »

Artie Z.
Artie Z.
9 years ago
Reply to  Doug

After the 1956 season, only these 3 (eventual) HOF players had achieved a particular feat: Pud Galvin, Lefty Grove, and Bob Feller. A non-HOFer joined the club in 1957, and the feat has become much more common since then (the total number of players who are “retired,” or at least have not yet played in 2014, is 78, while there are 25 players who have played in 2014 who meet the criteria). While the first 3 members (Galvin, Grove, and Feller) are HOFers, only one other eligible player on the list is in the HOF, and, of the players who… Read more »

Artie Z.
Artie Z.
9 years ago
Reply to  Artie Z.

It’s actually all players (not just pitchers) with 500 career strikeouts with more strikeouts than hits.

Wes Westrum joined the group in 1957 (his last season – he had more Ks than hits in 1956 but not 500 Ks yet), Reggie Jackson is the only other HOFer, and Jim Thome is the only one I think will likely make it (not counting current players – who knows what will happen with Giancarlo Stanton, whether he’ll still be on the list or make the HOF).

Of course, Adam Dunn is on the list.

David P
David P
9 years ago

He doesn’t have enough seasons to qualify for your list, but in 1984, Tony Bernazard turned in an OPS+ of 60. During his age 27 season no less.

Bernazard’s career OPS+ is 100 so he was a decent hitter. Except for what should have been his peak season.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
9 years ago

One name that came to mind was George Scott. He had 12 seasons with 400+ PA, 10 with 100+ OPS+, 1 with 95 and 1 with 83. He also had 1 with OPS+ = 40 but with 387 PA.

John Autin
Editor
9 years ago

Bill James wrote that nobody had a career pattern truly like that of Roy Sievers. Looking at his Year-2 decline — from .306 and 125 OPS+ to .238 and 75 OPS+ — I noticed that his K rate actually improved, from 13.8% Ks to 10.3%. So his drop in production was driven by BAbip, which plunged from .337 to .245, a common factor in sharp year-to-year changes. After a slow start in Year 3, the Browns sent him back to the minors, and he didn’t get reestablished until Year 5. So I thought, maybe the Browns overreacted to a “decline”… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
9 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Sievers’ minor league record shows nothing for the 1952 season. So what was he doing until Sept of that year?

no statistician but
no statistician but
9 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug:

But Seivers appears not to have played in the minors in 1952. So what went on?

Doug
Doug
9 years ago

Thanks for checking, nsb.

I assumed he was in the minors and got called up in Sept. Possibly he sustained a serious injury, or was in the military. But, just guesses.

Couldn’t find anything googling other than “for the next three years (1951-53) he suffered shoulder and arm injuries that limited his playing time to 134 games.” on Wikipedia.

Hartvig
Hartvig
9 years ago

Maybe military service or working in a military related field or something. I know when I was looking thru players records on B-R a couple nights ago to see how much time some players had lost to WW2 it didn’t always say “In Military Service” on everyones timeline.

David P
David P
9 years ago
Reply to  Hartvig

Here’s a bit more info on the Sievers injury: “In fact, it was a rather minor medical miracle that allowed Sievers to even get back on the diamond. Former Browns owner Bill Veeck sent his young, hurting slugger to John Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore in ’52 to have the damage repaired by Dr. George Bennett. “To this day, (Bennett) says it was the best operation he’s performed on a ball player,” Sievers said. “I ended up playing 15 more years with the shoulder. I was very fortunate.” http://www.baseballtoddsdugout.com/roysievers.html According to a newspaper article I tracked down, the injury happened in… Read more »

David P
David P
9 years ago
Reply to  Hartvig

I found another article that said – post-surgery – Sievers was no longer allowed to throw the ball overhand and instead had to throw three quarters. That may explain why his post-surgery outfield numbers are so poor. Runners must have been going wild on him.

John Autin
Editor
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Randomly continuing the Sievers theme … I was looking for active players born today (Cinco de Mayo). There are none active, but I happened to notice Larry Hisle, whom I remember fondly from Strat-O-Matic days. And Hisle just happens to have a pattern very similar to Sievers. I wasn’t looking for this, but check it out: Age 22: — Sievers, 125 OPS+ in 545 PAs, won ROY. — Hisle, 124 OPS+ in 537 PAs, #4 in ROY. Age 23: — Sievers, 75 OPS+ in 408 PAs, BA dropped by 68 points. — Hisle, 77 OPS+ in 468 PAs, BA dropped… Read more »

Paul E
Paul E
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Larry Hisle? After a decent rookie season (1969?), Phillies’ fans booed him all the way back to Eugene OR. Or was it the Toledo Mud Hens? Or the OK City ’89ers?

But being an exiled Phillie, naturally he recovered elsewhere at the major league level…..

David P
David P
9 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

SABR has a great writeup on Hisle. Sounds like he’s an amazing person, and someone that’s given back a lot to the community. If you don’t want to read the whole article, the three quotes at the end capture the sentiment.

http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/99d6b47d

Hartvig
Hartvig
9 years ago
Reply to  David P

I read your link just moments after listening to an NPR story about Rais Bhuiyan.

It’s nice to be reminded at times that there’s a lot of good in this world.

Thanks.

Tim Pea
Tim Pea
9 years ago

You need to check out Darwin Barney if you want to look at bad years in the making. I don’t know what OPS+ is, but Barney might be the worst everyday player in baseball. I understand he’s a good fielder but he simply can not hit.

Tim Pea
Tim Pea
9 years ago

I would like to talk about Theo Epstien and the nationwide epidemic of confusing luck and brains. The Cubs have had their worst 3 year record in team history, and they are absolutely terrible this year. Junior Lake is a AAA player, Darwin Barney keeps getting played because somebody in the organization is a fan of natural selection. Nate Shierholtz must be somebodies nephew. Starlin Castro is a retard.