COG 1924 Round Results: Started Great, Closed Great, Smoltz In

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John Smoltz started here at the Circle of Greats voting by appearing on exactly 50% of the ballots in his very first round (which was also just the second round of COG voting as a whole). Then, for the next 57 (!) rounds, John never appeared on nearly that high a percentage of the ballots again. Until, that is, he received a stunning level of very late support in the 1924 round of voting to tie Duke Snider, and closed things out with a 50.8% showing in a runoff against the Duke, making Smoltz the 58th inductee into the High Heat Stats Circle of Greats. More on John and the voting after the jump

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Career W-L Record and ERA as Post-Season Starter for NL Teams, By Pitchers With Most Post-Season Starts for NL Teams:

Tom Glavine (35 starts) 14 Wins, 16 Losses, 3.30 ERA
Greg Maddux (30 Starts) 11 Wins, 14 Losses, 3.36 ERA
John Smoltz (27 Starts) 13 Wins, 4 Losses, 2.55 ERA
Chris Carpenter (18 Starts) 10 Wins, 4 Losses, 3.00 ERA
Steve Carlton (14 Starts) 6 Wins, 6 Losses, 3.12 ERA

Think Smoltzie’s extremely favorable W-L record in his post-season starts is a function of frequently pitching in the third game of post-season series, against less exalted opposing starters than Maddux and Glavine had to face? Think again: Smoltz was 5-0 in six Game One starts, compared to Maddux’s 3-6 (in 11 Game One starts) and Glavine’s 2-2 (in 5 Game One starts). Smoltz was 1-0 in three Game 2 starts, for a combined 6-0 in 14 Game One and Game Two starts, compared to Maddux’s 6-7 in 15 Game One and Game 2 starts and Glavine’s 8-5 in 16 Game One and Game Two starts. Smoltz actually started fewer Game Threes (5) than Glavine (8) or Maddux (6).

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Smoltz joins long-time staff-mates Maddux and Glavine in the Circle of Greats. Maddux and Glavine will be inducted into the Hall of Fame together this summer. If Smoltz eventually joins them, they will join this group:

Pitching Staffs with Most Future Hall of Famers Pitching 162 or More Innings:

Athletics, each season from 1903 through 1907: Chief Bender, Eddie Plank and Rube Waddell
Indians, each season from 1949 through 1953: Bob Feller, Bob Lemon and Early Wynn
Yankees, 1931: Lefty Gomez, Herb Pennock and Red Ruffing
Dodgers, 1966: Sandy Koufax, Don Drysdale and Don Sutton

Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz all pitched 162 innings or more in 1993, and 1995 through 1999.

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Here are the only pitchers in MLB history with at least 75 career regular season Saves and at least 75 regular season career hits as batters:

John Smoltz 157 Saves, 151 hits
Firpo Marberry 99 Saves, 128 hits
Ron Reed 103 Saves, 98 hits
Dave Giusti 145 Saves, 77 hits

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Notes on the 1924 round of voting:

–The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) voters have, thus far, elected 115 players to the Hall of Fame. The ultimate goal of the COG is to catch up to the BBWAA’s number. With John Smoltz being the 58th player we’ve inducted, we’re half way there.

–In his 43 rounds on the ballot before this one, Edgar Martinez had never appeared on more than 17 ballots. This round he appeared on 22 ballots. Kenny Lofton also had his best round yet, appearing on 17 ballots, one more than his previous high, which he had just achieved in the last round.

–Lofton and Martinez, former redemption-based returnees, are now accumulating solid levels of protection from future banishment to redemption-land. Kenny is now up to three rounds of assured eligibility and Edgar is up to four such rounds.

–Smoltz is inducted after having appeared on a total of 658 voter ballots (not counting the just-completed runoff), by far the most to date. Craig Biggio becomes the leader in total ballot appearances (569) among those still accumulating votes.

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The full spreadsheet showing this round’s vote tally is here: COG 1924 Vote Tally.

The vote summary for recent Circle of Greats voting rounds is here: COG Vote Summary 2 . An archive with fuller details of the 1968 through 1939 rounds is here: COG 1968-1939 Vote Summary . In both cases, raw vote totals for each past round appears on Sheet 1 and the percentage totals for each past round appears on Sheet 2.

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A spreadsheet listing the full membership to date of the Circle of Greats is here: Circle of Greats Membership . You can also now find that same link any time by clicking on “Circle of Greats” at the top of the High Heats Stats home page.

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David Horwich

9 years ago

With about half the CoG filled up, I note that roughly half of the remaining slots (57 + however many the BBWAA elects next time ’round) will be filled by no-doubters – Wagner, Speaker, Gehrig, Grove, Joe D, that Ruth fellow, et al. Which will leave somewhere around 25-30 slots to be filled by some combination of: –> the current holdover list –> future redemption round returnees –> non-no-doubters from the birth years to come – the Goose Goslins and Sam Crawfords of the first half of the 20th c. It’ll be interesting to see how that all plays out.… Read more »

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birtelcom

9 years ago

Reply to David Horwich

Thanks, David. The typo you noted has been fixed. With Smoltz inducted, pitchers are now at just about a third of the COG membership — 19 of the 58, or 32.8%.

Michael Sullivan

9 years ago

Reply to David Horwich

What’s the line for who you are calling a no-doubter David? Who are the weakest couple you are considering no-doubters, or the best you aren’t? My no doubter line is about 160 Hall Rating for guys who played ~100% pre-integration, and 180ish for primarily 19th C players. That gives me 22 no doubters going forward with the lowest hall rating being Joe D. at 166 (who is more of a no-doubter than his hall rating indicates), and Spahn at 174. Best Hall ratings I’m not calling no-doubters are Dan Brouthers and George Davis at 178 and 166 respectively. Probably some,… Read more »

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birtelcom

9 years ago

Reply to Michael Sullivan

The intended approach to the COG, at least for the 115 or so we are shooting to elect to match the BBWAA number, is that guys who played entirely or primarily in the 19th century, such as Brouthers, will not be eligible for the COG. The reason is that we are trying to do an “apples-to-apples” comparison with the BBWAA’s choices, and the BBWAA never really ever saw its job, I think, as voting on the guys who played mostly in the 19th century. They did include Willie Keeler and Cy Young, who played much of their career before 1900,… Read more »

Michael Sullivan

9 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Oh! So if nobody who played more seasons pre-1900 than post-1900, that cuts me down to 19 no-doubters, with Gehringer and Arky Vaughan being my highest hall ratings left behinds at 157 and 148. Again, Probably I end up putting both of those guys in — with 3 pre-1900 clear choices missing now, that leaves more room than I was thinking for some of our holdover and redemption candidates. Except I missed Eddie Plank at 167. He’s probably going in also, and just short of no-doubter status for me. It will be interesting to see what other voters think of… Read more »

David Horwich

9 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

birtelcom @ 5 –

I’d say put Davis on the ballot – he did have more PA in the 19th century, but his career WAR is divided almost evenly between the 19th and 20th centuries, and if he hadn’t lost most of the 1903 season to the War Between the Leagues he’d almost certainly have more WAR in the 20th c.

David Horwich

9 years ago

Reply to Michael Sullivan

Michael @ 4 – Well, I don’t have a specific statistical marker by which I divide the no-doubters from the some-doubters – going strictly by the numbers gets trickier now that we’re approaching the careers of players who lost years to WWII and/or segregation. On top of which, as you quite properly note in your comment @ 7, some adjustment needs to be made for the more variable strength of competition in the early decades of the game, the differences in pitcher usage patterns, and so on, all of which made it easier for dominant players to rack up WAR… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin

9 years ago

Reply to David Horwich

@9/DH;

Very reasonable list. Plank, Hartnett and Vaughan I’d consider the weakest of the ‘no-doubters’, so to speak, no stronger than Hubbell and Waner. But as you said, ya gotta draw a line somewhere.

A lot of it will be the timing of when these guys go on the ballots, and the strength of the hold-overs they are competing against. For instance, both Wagner and Lajoie are 1874, so that’s two years in a row no one else has a chance (I am assuming Wagner gets elected in 1874, and Lajoie in 1873).

Artie Z.

9 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

1887 has Eddie Collins, Walter Johnson, and Pete Alexander.

Plus Shoeless Joe, who opens up a completely new line of speculation (at least we knew what Rose had accomplished on the field).

Lawrence Azrin

9 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

11/Artie Z.;

1886 has Cobb and 1888 has Speaker, so that’s five serious no-doubters in only three years.

Voomo Zanzibar

9 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Joe Jackson:

62.3 WAR
5695 PA

Highest WAR in less than 6000 PA:

62.3 Shoeless
61.5 Jackie Robinson
60.1 Chase Utley
46.8 Gene Tenace
45.9 Thurman Munson
44.7 Joe Mauer

Voomo Zanzibar

9 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Active hitters matching Shoeless Joe’s

PA less than 95* WAR:

Pujols
Trout
Donaldson
Puig

…and
Dontrelle Willis
Micah Owings (I like to think they are active)

oneblankspace

9 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

I thought Shoeless Joe was only banned for life, not eternity.

David Horwich

9 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

AZ & LA @ 11 & 12 –

1903 is another stacked year: Gehrig, Gehringer, Waner, Hubbell, Cochrane. It’s quite so top-heavy as 1887’s Johnson/Collins/Alexander troika, but still that’s a lotta talent.

David P

9 years ago

Is it me or is Smoltz basically the Lou Whitaker of pitchers? No real peak but lots of good to very good seasons.

David Horwich

9 years ago

Miscellaneous note: Smoltz is the first player from his birth year (1967) to make the CoG, and may end up being the only one, although Lofton also has a decent chance.

Artie Z.

9 years ago

This post is a follow up to Voomo @13. I was wondering how Shoeless Joe stacked up against others in their first 6000 (or so) PAs. The main reason I did this was because Shoeless Joe didn’t get to “experience” the decline phase of his career. The list below is based on the following search procedure, because I’m not sure how (or if it’s possible) to search for players based on their first X PAs. I looked from 1st year to 6th year (knowing I wouldn’t find anyone) with PAs less than or equal to 6000 and WAR greater than… Read more »

paget

9 years ago

Reply to Artie Z.

Cool list. DiMaggio misses it just by an accident of how his PAs fall:
1947 PA 5587 WAR 58.6
1948 PA 6256 WAR 65.7

I wonder how many other players accumulated 60WAR before hitting 6000PAs.

Artie Z.

9 years ago

Reply to paget

I actually handchecked DiMaggio because he came to mind as missing from the list. The only players I’ve found who have 60+ WAR in their first 6000 to 6500 PAs (and who didn’t make the above list) are: 6084 63.1 Boggs 6408 63.8 F. Robinson 6256 65.7 DiMaggio 6182 64.0 Vaughan 6327 62.4 G. Carter 6285 61.9 Brett 6408 61.7 Home Run Baker 6364 60.7 Boudreau 6374 60.0 Grich 6491 64.7 Anson (I had to go to 18 years to get between 6000 and 6500 PAs) There may be others, but these are probably the most likely. I’d guess that… Read more »

Doug

9 years ago

Reply to Artie Z.

Ernie Banks was just outside the 60 WAR in 6000 PA, at 57.6/5862 after 10 seasons, the last at first base. Had Banks played a couple more years (1962-63) at shortstop, the Rpos difference would probably have gotten him there.

Some others who make the 6500 cutoff.
– Barry Larkin 60.8/6520
– Johnny Bench 59.4/6309 followed by 4.4
– Mel Ott 59.1/5992 followed by 6.4
– Larry Walker 57.0/6230 followed by 6.1/553
– Rod Carew (maybe) 58.8/6329 followed by 4.9
– Reggie Jackson (maybe) 58.1/6222 followed by 3.5

mosc

9 years ago

How about some discussion of Smoltz in the broadcasting booth? He’s one of my favorites. He is not afraid to reference himself and his experience like some retired stars nor is he obsessed with it. He’s not a big analysis guy but I find his information on pitch selection and what a hitter’s looking for in particular to be uniquely articulate.

bstar

9 years ago

Reply to mosc

Smoltz has done some Braves games this year with #### Caray and Joe Simpson.

I enjoy him more in a three-man booth. His pitcher v. batter insights are at first blush brilliant and informative but can become a tad tiresome when he’s only working with one other guy.