Circle of Greats: 1921 Balloting

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This post is for voting and discussion in the 62nd round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG). This round adds to the ballot those players born in 1921. Rules and lists are after the jump.

This round’s group of 1921-born players joins the holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full set of players eligible to receive your votes this round.

As usual, the new group of 1921-born players, in order to join the eligible list, must have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers).

Each submitted ballot, if it is to be counted, must include three and only three eligible players. The one player who appears on the most ballots cast in the round is inducted into the Circle of Greats. Players who fail to win induction but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Any other player in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances, or who appears on at least 10% of the ballots, wins one additional round of ballot eligibility.

All voting for this round closes at 11:59 PM EDT Wednesday, July 2, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:59 PM EDT Monday, June 30.

If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: COG 1921 Vote Tally. I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also initially, there is a column for each of the holdover candidates; additional player columns from the new born-in-1921 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.

Choose your three players from the lists below of eligible players. The 15 current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same. The new group of 1921 birth-year guys are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played.

Ferris Fain, who appears on the 1921-born hitters list below, is one of those rare guys who did not play 10 years in the majors, but is eligible for these votes based on a 20 or more career WAR total.

Holdovers:
Whitey Ford (eligibility guaranteed for 5 rounds)
Kenny Lofton (eligibility guaranteed for 5 rounds)
Willie McCovey (eligibility guaranteed for 4 rounds)
Craig Biggio (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Ryne Sandberg (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Minnie Minoso (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Roberto Alomar (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Richie Ashburn (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Kevin Brown (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Larry Doby (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Dennis Eckersley (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Harmon Killebrew (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Ralph Kiner (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Eddie Murray (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Hoyt Wilhelm (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)

Everyday Players (born in 1921, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Elmer Valo
Andy Pafko
Bobby Adams
Hoot Evers
Willard Marshall
Dale Mitchell
Matt Batts
Roy Campanella
Jim Rivera
Clyde Vollmer
Ferris Fain

Pitchers (born in 1921, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Warren Spahn
Hal Newhouser
Howie Pollet
Jim Hearn
Fritz Dorish
Dick Fowler
Lou Kretlow

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Mike

9 years ago

Warren Spahn (should be unanimous)
Roy Campanella
Whitey Ford

David Horwich

9 years ago

Reply to Mike

We’ve never had a unanimous vote – George Brett has drawn the highest percentage so far (93%) – and I seriously doubt Spahn will be the player to break that pattern.

Artie Z.

9 years ago

Reply to David Horwich

I agree – there are way too many people on the bubble for Spahn to be unanimous. That being said, Spahn is CLEARLY the best player on this ballot. I think if you asked anyone “Who is the best player on this ballot?” that everyone answers “Warren Spahn” (we don’t even have Koufax for people to say “but what about that peak”).

oneblankspace

9 years ago

Reply to Artie Z.

And some voters may look at the results, see that Spahn is a sure thing, and spread their three votes elsewhere

bells

9 years ago

Reply to David Horwich

I take the percentage of votes with a grain of salt in a hypothetical exercise such as this, but I still can’t suppress my strong hope that if anyone gets a unanimous vote, it’s Jackie Robinson in a few rounds.

mosc

9 years ago

Reply to bells

I think we think alike. I don’t think it’s worth pushing for though. It actually seems a little trite as an honor, doesn’t it? Like we all start putting *42* at the end of our posts to remember Jackie. I live me some Jackie Robinson, for many reasons, but it does seem a little thick, no?

Not that I would buck that trend though. HELL no.

David P

9 years ago

Should be real interesting with 15 holdovers, a guaranteed winner (Spahn) and two interesting newcomers (Newhouser and Campanella). Will be interesting to see who survives.

oneblankspace

9 years ago

For the newcomers, it looks like a better year for pitchers than fielders.

Valo played for the PHI/KC A’s, the BKN/LA Dodgers, and the Senators/Twins on both sides of the move.

Steve

9 years ago

Warren Spahn, Whitey Ford & Willie McCovey

Abbott

9 years ago

Newhouser, Spahn, Murray

Artie Z.

9 years ago

FYI: Where’s Andy Pafko?

Author

birtelcom

9 years ago

Reply to Artie Z.

Well, good point, how did I drop Pafko? Thanks for the correction, I’ve now added him in. Sorry, Andy (Cubs really haven’t filled Pafko’s shoes in center field since they traded him 63 years ago this month).

RonG

9 years ago

Spahn, Campanella, Alomar

Gary Bateman

9 years ago

Spahn, Alomar, Minoso

JEV

9 years ago

Spahn, McCovey, Campanella

Dr. Doom

9 years ago

Okay, this needs to be said. Warren Spahn… and Hal Newhouser… were born… the SAME YEAR?!? Wow. Just… wow. Newhouser’s best seasons (’44-’46) were over before Spahn had his first 20-win season. Let’s just say that, of the two of them, Spahn was juuuuuust a bit more effective from 1947 onward. This is going to be an extremely cutthroat round. I desperately wanted to vote for Campy. But, in my opinion, the numbers just aren’t there. You have to basically say, “Oh, WAR somehow misses 50% of Campy’s value” in order to get him in the conversation. He only had… Read more »

Artie Z.

9 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

If you took Newhouser through 1946, then Spahn from 1947 onwards, you’d have a pitcher with these stats: 6711 1/3 IP, 2.99 ERA, 469-319 (.595 winning percentage – that’s a little lower than Spahn’s actual winning percentage), 3629 Ks, 2139 BBs, 490 CGs, 86 SHOs, a 1.22 WHIP, 127.7 WAR, 65.2 WAA. It’s kind of fun to do those combinations from time to time. For Kevin Brown, match him with Jose Rijo from 1984-1993, and then Brown from 1994 onwards. That’s a pitcher with 83.5 WAR and 53 WAA. 237-166 (.588), 3101 Ks, 1083 BBs, 3692 1/3 IP, 3.10 ERA,… Read more »

bells

9 years ago

Wow, what a stacked round. I may have to make a strategic change, but for now I’m voting straight… Here’s the vote according to my methodology. I take four measures of player value as a gauge of how players compare across advanced metrics that value things slightly differently. Then I give them a cumulative rank with all players on the ballot over 50 WAR, adding their ranking of each measure. Here are the measures: WAR – the ‘classic’ way of measuring a player’s value over a player the team could have gotten to replace the player, over that player’s career,… Read more »

Bix

9 years ago

Spahn, Kiner, Killebrew

Author

birtelcom

9 years ago

Reply to Bix

Kiner’s career slash line vs. Spahn: .446 OBP/.617 SLG/1.063 OPS. Among all hitters with at least 40 PAs vs. Warren, only Roberto Clemente had a higher OPS against him than Kiner.

jajacob

9 years ago

Who I feel are the best candidates: SPAHN, Lofton, McCovey

Whom I am really voting for Brown, Murray and Eck.

Michael Sullivan

9 years ago

Not voting yet, as strategic conditions probably dominate this round, but wanted to weigh in on the new guys. Spahn is an obvious choice and will surely win this round. Newhouser is very interesting and a Tiger homeboy, but I’ve decided not to support him. For starters, he’s on the borderline. 60 WAR 37 WAA. A lot of guys with comparable numbers are on the holdover or redemption list and not making it in. career value is a bit short, but peak value is a bit more than has been necessary. His hall rating of 126 puts him just below… Read more »

Editor

Doug

9 years ago

This year’s tidbits. – Elmer Valo‘s first 14 seasons were all with the As. Then he switched teams 6 times over his final 6 seasons. But, that wasn’t all the traveling Valo did as he changed cities 3 times when his team relocated, as a member of the 1954-55 Athletics, 1957-58 Dodgers and 1960-61 Senators/Twins. No other player did that 3 times, but three others did it twice. Who are they? – Andy Pafko played in the World Series for three different NL teams. He is one of 3 players with an extra-base hit and an intentional walk in his… Read more »

Dr. Doom

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

Shoeless Joe is one of the Indians with consecutive 200-hit seasons (1911-1912). I got that right away. Then I tried Speaker. And Averill. And Alomar. And I thought I got it when I realized I hadn’t tried Lajoie. But that wasn’t it, either. But then I got Charlie Jamieson (1923-24). Apparently also Carlos Baerga (1992-93). So that’s actually four Indians with back-to-back, 200-hit seasons: Mitchell, Joe Jackson, Charlie Jamieson, and Carlos Baerga.

Editor

Doug

9 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Right you are, Dr. Doom. I missed Jamieson in my visual scan.

Richard Chester

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

Ferris Fain’s career OBP of .424 puts him in a tie with Eddie Collins for 9th place on the all-time list for players with 3000+ PA, 1901-2013.

Dr. Doom

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

In the Jim Rivera question, I’ve got Rickey Henderson and Roberto Alomar. I thought Davey Lopes, Bobby Bonds, Barry Larkin, and Kenny Lofton would be in the group, but sadly, they are not. That was my initial 6-player guess, and I got two of them. Someone help with the others?

Richard Chester

9 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

I got all 6 with a PI run and an Excel spreadsheet but I don’t want to spoil the fun for others so I’ll skip giving the answers. Henderson and Alomar are correct.

Artie Z.

9 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Paul Molitor from 1987-1992. Then he tied in 1993 (22 HRs and 22 SBs), then came back again in 1994 (14 HRs, 20 SBs).

Bobby Abreu from 2004-2010.

Joe Morgan from 1974-1978.

Willie Davis from 1971-1975.

Honorable mention to Roger Connor, the first player to accomplish the feat 5 times in his career from age 30+ (though not consecutive). If he had a 162 game schedule, he might have hit those extra 3 HRs in 1891 to give him 10 and 6 straight seasons.

Doug

9 years ago

Reply to Artie Z.

Rivera needed just one more homer in 1958 to make it 6 seasons in a row.

Artie Z.

9 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Doom – those are pretty good guesses. Larkin, Lopes, and Lofton all had 5 or more seasons that fit the criteria (and Bobby Bonds had 4), just not consecutive. The other players to do this (and who did not meet the consecutive portion of the criteria) are Damon, Biggio, Jackie Robinson, the aforementioned Roger Connor, and the guy I actually guessed after looking at your guesses, Devon White. Legend has it that Roger Connor did it because in his day it was the basestealers who got paid (he had only done it once before he turned 30, and that was… Read more »

Dr. Doom

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

The ’09 Cubs are one of the 25-start Canadian teams (Rich Harden and Ryan Dempster). The ’77 Red Sox are the other (Reggie Cleveland and Fergie Jenkins).

Doug

9 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

That is correct.

The Red Sox was a surprise for me – I had completely forgotten Jenkins pitching for Boston.

Richard Chester

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

For the Elmer Valo question, I think it was discussed a few days ago. Bob Cerv is one of those three players.

Doug

9 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Not Cerv.

Looking for players who moved with their team when it relocated. So had to have played with them the last season in their old city and first season in their new digs.

Cerv was mentioned in regards to playing for an expansion team in its inaugural season, two seasons in a row (1961-62, obviously).

Artie Z.

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

Is one answer a “trick” answer? Eddie Mathews played with BSN/MLN and then MLN/ATL.

Artie Z.

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

If Mathews is one, I think Don Mincher is the other one. He played with WSH/MIN in 1960-1961, and then with WSA/TEX in 1971-1972.

Doug

9 years ago

Reply to Artie Z.

Those are two.

One more (he was a teammate of Mincher).

Gary Bateman

9 years ago

Reply to Artie Z.

I was just in Chanute Ks for an American Legion Baseball game at Paul Lindblad Field. I think he might be the other (KC/Oakland and Washington/Texas)

Doug

9 years ago

Reply to Artie Z.

Yes, Lindblad is the third.

David Horwich

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

A’s first basemen with consecutive seasons of 4.5+ WAR:

(8) Jimmie Foxx 1928-35
(3) Harry Davis 1904-06
(3) Jason Giambi 1999-2001
(2) Stuffy McInnis 1912-13
(2) Gene Tenace 1973-74
(2) Mark McGwire 1995-96

Doug

9 years ago

Reply to David Horwich

Exactly.

I was surprised there were so many. First base isn’t the easiest position for compiling WAR.

Richard Chester

9 years ago

Reply to David Horwich

What about Ferris Fain in 1951-1952? And in 1928 Foxx had 60 G at 3B, 30 at 1B and 19 at C.

Richard Chester

9 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Whoops, I missed that Fain bit in post 21.

David Horwich

9 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Oops, you’re right, Richard, Foxx’s 1928 season shouldn’t count. So he had a mere 7 consecutive seasons with 4.5+ WAR as a first baseman.

I left Fain off the list since he was mentioned in the original question.

Artie Z.

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

On the Pollet question, unless they have 3 consecutive shutouts across seasons, Whitey Ford (1958), Billy Pierce (1958), Koufax (1963), John Tudor (1985), and Fernando Valenzuela (1981) have one streak of 3, but not 2. Steve Carlton has zero streaks of 3, but in 1972 he had 4 shutouts in 5 games, allowing only an unearned run in the middle of those 5 games.

I checked Lefty Grove and Guidry as well.

As I was about done guessing I thought, “It’s probably someone like Mickey Lolich.” Lo and behold:

Mickey Lolich (1964) and (1967)

Doug

9 years ago

Reply to Artie Z.

One of the players you mentioned does have two single season 3-shutout streaks. Remember that relief appearances between starts do not break a shutout streak.

You haven’t mentioned any of the other three.

Luis Gomez

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

I´m guessing Fernando and the Big Unit.

Artie Z.

9 years ago

Reply to Luis Gomez

They both appear to be one-timers – Fernando in 1981, Unit in 1994.

Richard Chester

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

How about these guys: Lolich, Ken Holtzman, Wilbur Wood and Woodie Fryman.

Artie Z.

9 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Wood is one (1972) and (1973). Holtzman is one (1968) and (1969). And Fryman (1966) and (1975) (with a 2/3 IP relief appearance thrown in between) is one.

So that’s Wood, Lolich, Holtzman, Fryman, and Pierce.

Doug

9 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Fryman is the one I never would have guessed.

Artie Z.

9 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

There’s no shame in not guessing Fryman. What is shameful is when I was thinking of “great left-handers who might have done this” that Randy Johnson never crossed my mind until I saw Luis’ post.

Artie Z.

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

Billy Pierce’s game logs are a mess – but in 1953 he had a SHO on 8/3, then a 8-GF(14) on 8/5 (picking up a win), then a SHO on 8/9, then a 9-GF on 8/11 (picking up a save), and then a SHO on 8/14.

He pitched 7.2 innings in relief in those two games (6.2 on 8/5 and 1 on 8/11) and actually didn’t break his scoreless streak.

So that, along with his 1958 season, gives him two streaks.

Author

birtelcom

9 years ago

Marvelous stuff as always. I think my favorite tidbit this time is the Willard Marshall/Morgan Ensberg one. If nothing else because the combination of names sounds more like it belongs to the co-editors of an academic journal on translating Greek classics than to two ballplayers from different eras.

Richard Chester

9 years ago

Dorish is the last AL pitcher to steal home, on 9-2-50. Dick Fowler got credit for a ho-hitter while sitting in his team’s dugout. Pitching for the A’s in a game against the Browns in Philadelphia on 9-9-45, the score was 0-0 going into the bottom of the 9th when the A’s pushed across a run to give Fowler his victory and his no-hitter. Virgil Trucks had a similar on 5-15-52 while pitching for the Tigers. Jim Rivera played 10 seasons in his career, all in his thirties. This was once discussed on HHS and I think it was mentioned… Read more »

Richard Chester

9 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Make that “…Trucks had a similar game on…”

Editor

Doug

9 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Good additions, Richard. Thanks. Re: Valo, seems that “legend” is corroborated by silence as when questioned about it (based on what I’ve read) the official scorer wasn’t sure he could recall and Valo offered only a “no comment”. Not sure how you erase someone from a box score and have the box score still add up … unless Valo’s walk was credited to the batter he *didn’t* (nudge, nudge, wink, wink) pinch-hit for. Or, maybe the scorer just picked someone else off the bench to be that pinch-hitter. Looking at the box score, seems the former method must have been… Read more »

Richard Chester

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

Doug: I meant a player who played for exactly 10 years, all from age 30-39. Looks like Hubbard is the only other one. And you may have been the one to bring this up in the past.

Richard Chester

9 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Another pitcher with 70+ games for the Red Sox, White Sox and Browns/Orioles? Why Milt Gaston, of course. He played from 1924-1934.

Doug

9 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Milt and Alex Gaston formed a rare brother battery for the 1929 Red Sox. But, their first time out didn’t go so well, as Milt was bombed for 8 runs in 1.1 IP. In fact, Milt lost his first 3 starts (the last on a walk-off walk to Joe Sewell), all with Alex behind the plate. Milt then went 3-2 with other catchers before the two finally got a W together when Alex finished the game in a 4-1 CG win over the Browns. The two didn’t have another CG (for both) together until September, in a 2-1 loss to… Read more »

BryanM

9 years ago

Warren Spahn, Hal Newhouser, Roy Campanella. Because I can

9 years ago

Ashburn, Spahn, McCovey

Jeff Harris

9 years ago

Spahn, Lofton, McCovey

Andy

9 years ago

Spahn, Campanella, Alomar

Mike G.

9 years ago

Spahn, Brown, Eckersley

Joel

9 years ago

Spahn
Campanella
Kiner

Insert Name Here

9 years ago

My initial ballot: 1. Warren Spahn (5.4 WAR/season during 1947-63) – Regardless of the relatively low WAR/season number, his ridiculous longevity (17-year “peak”!) put him right on top of the ranking this round. 2. Kenny Lofton (6.8 WAR/162 during 1992-99) 3. Larry Doby (6.2 WAR/162 during 1948-56) – Still not getting enough recognition. Doby was lucky to stay on the ballot after last round. Ranking of other candidates: 4. Ryne Sandberg (6.2 WAR/162 during 1984-92) 5. Craig Biggio (5.8 WAR/162 during 1991-99) 6. Kevin Brown (5.7 WAR/season during 1992-2000) 7. Willie McCovey (6.7 WAR/162 during 1963-70) 8. Hal Newhouser (6.5… Read more »

Steven

9 years ago

Warren Spahn, Whitey Ford, Willie McCovey.

PaulE

9 years ago

Spahn, Sandberg, McCovey

David Horwich

9 years ago

15 holdovers/redemptionists and 3 plausible candidates from this year – the ballot has gone from famine to feast in a hurry. The “10% or top 9” rule may well be a factor for the first time in a while. In the past the holdover list has topped out at around 15, so we’ll probably see some attrition, especially with so many guys on the bubble. For the first time I can remember, I don’t think a solid majority of the holdovers are CoG-worthy. My take on the current ballot goes something like this: Yes: Alomar, Biggio, McCovey, Sandberg, Spahn Probably:… Read more »

Michael Sullivan

9 years ago

Reply to David Horwich

clear no on Brown? Is that a character issue for you? Or are you disbelieving something about the stats there?

David Horwich

9 years ago

Reply to Michael Sullivan

Irrational dislike. On his merits I suppose I’d rate him “probably”. We’re going to have plenty of pitchers, though, so it won’t bother me if Brown gets left out.

David P

9 years ago

Reply to David Horwich

The PEDs evidence against Brown seems fairly strong and you can’t make a Bonds/Clemens “he was COG worthy before” PEDs argument.

Dr. Doom

9 years ago

Reply to David P

According to the Mitchell Report, Brown began taking HGH in July of 2001, following his injury. (At least, that’s when Eric Radomski supposedly began supplying him). His career hardly gained any value following 2001. I can’t see why the “Bonds/Clemens” argument wouldn’t work with Brown, unless the final 6.4 WAR of his career is totally integral to his case (which I just don’t see).

David P

9 years ago

Reply to David P

Several points Dr. Doom: 1) Some voters don’t want to vote for any player associated with Peds. 2) I don’t have a copy of the Mitchell Report but Wikipedia states a year of 2000 or 2001. Which suggests up to his last 16.8 WAR. 3) Kirk Radomski, the person who sold PEDs to Brown beginning in 2000 or 2001, stated that Brown was already thoroughly familiar with PEDs. So it seems possible that Brown was taking PEDS before 2000/2001. 4) I don’t have a sense as to when Clemens might have begun taking PEDs. But Bonds had roughly 100 WAR… Read more »

9 years ago

Reply to David P

@ David P: The exact quote from the Mitchell Report is:

“Radomski said that Paul Lo Duca referred Brown to him in 2000 or 2001 when Brown and Lo Duca were teammates with the Dodgers. Brown called Radomski and they spoke about human growth hormone for one or two hours. Radomski said that Brown was “very knowledgeable” about human growth hormone. Brown was placed on the disabled list in June 2001 with a neck injury and in July 2001 with an elbow injury. After Brown got hurt, he called Radomski again and asked for human growth hormone.”

Voomo Zanzibar

9 years ago

Reply to David P

Yes, and HGH was not a banned substance until 2005.
Yet we form these negative perceptions of people who used it in 2000.

And right now, in a major league training room,
a ballplayer is getting shot up with cortizone,
which is a steroid,
but that’s okay,
because we’ve used that steroid for decades.

But screw all these newfangled steroid and healing methods. Screw ’em!

In fact, screw any ballplayer who goes to the dentist. Damned airy fairy dentists. When Denton True Young needed a tooth pulled, he got it done at the barbershop. That’s baseball.

Dr. Doom

9 years ago

Reply to David P

@David Hruska P Certainly, voters may do whatever they like. If they don’t want to vote for a PED-associated player, that’s their prerogative; I was talking about the relative strength of argument and whether or not it was Clemens/Bonds-like. IF the Mitchell report is accurate and Brown didn’t start using until July of 2001 (which I cannot speak to, other than what the Mitchell Report states), it can’t have been more than about 8 WAR that his career gained, and that’s assuming that the ENTIRETY of his value from post-July 2001 is tied up in PED use. Obviously, Bonds and… Read more »

David P

9 years ago

Reply to David P

Thanks for the clarification Dr. Doom!

And just to be clear, I’m not really taking a position re: PEDs. I just find it to be way too complicated of an issue and we don’t have enough information to make informed decisions. Of course, for our little COG exercise, it really doesn’t matter since there are no real world implications.

David Horwich

9 years ago

Reply to David P

I’d forgotten about Brown & PEDs, so thanks for the reminder, David P. (Although I’m pretty much a PED agnostic – for the most part it doesn’t affect my voting.)

Luis Gomez

9 years ago

Alomar, Miñoso and Eckersley.

Nick Pain

9 years ago

Spahn, Murray, Lofton

koma

9 years ago

Craig Biggio, Dennis Eckersley, Warren Spahn

KalineCountry Ron

9 years ago

Warren Spahn
Roy Campanella
Hal Newhouser

mosc

9 years ago

We need to start the discussion from this era with Hal Newhouser that he racked up stats against what was a very different league 1941-1946. Spahn’s WAR is still over 90 taking out those years for example, barely a change. Newhouser accumulated more than half of his career value during the war period while a lot of the best talent was out to war. 30 WAA in 5 years from 44-48 is a huge number, Ryan only has 35 career, but most of those Newhouser years are against sub-par competition. Because of this, to me, Newhouser is nowhere close to… Read more »

Artie Z.

9 years ago

Reply to mosc

With Spahn, it’s not like he really pitched at all during those years – he was in the military for 3 years, so if anything his adjustment is probably to add more WAR, or at the very least call it a wash. Not that it matters one way or the other. Without adjusting for anything, Newhouser has a Koufaxian peak. 4-year pitching WAR peak: Koufax 36.5 WAR, Newhouser 34.6 WAR; Koufax 25.2 WAA, Newhouser 25.7 WAA 6-year pitching WAR peak: Koufax 46.6 WAR, Newhouser 46.4 WAR; Koufax 30.9 WAA, Newhouser 33.2 WAA And to really dig into the details Newhouser… Read more »

Dr. Doom

9 years ago

Reply to mosc

I agree a lot with Artie Z. I think Newhouser was probably a great pitcher. He wasn’t as good as his WW2-era stats suggest, but I think he was probably better than many people give him credit for being. From 1946-1949, when the regulars were back, he had 9.5, 5.9, 6.3, and 5.4 WAR. That was AFTER a heavy pitching load beginning in 1940: 133, 173, 183, 195, 312, and 313 innings. In the 1946-1949 period, he was still pitching 280 innings a year. It’s not super shocking that a 29-year-old pitcher with that kind of workload would just give… Read more »

mosc

9 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

A lot of guys were rusty in ’46 and some never got back into form. I don’t think you can judge the league fully restored in balance between those who went to war and those who didn’t until later into the 40s.

Dr. Remulak

9 years ago

Biggio, Ford, Campanella. All this Spahn-love, yet Ford trounces Warren in ERA+, 133 to 119.

Dr. Doom

9 years ago

Reply to Dr. Remulak

Yeah… and Billy Wagner annihilates Walter Johnson by ERA+, 187-147. New greatest pitcher ever, in the house! Ignoring innings pitched is not a good way to go…

David P

9 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Not to mention defense (Ford’s was better) or the fact that Ford never had to face the Yankees’ offense. Neither of those are accounted for in ERA+.

no statistician but

9 years ago

Reply to David P

Spahn was the better pitcher overall, no question, but Spahn had a terrible record against the team he had to beat, the Dodgers, going 24-37 lifetime. His record against teams with .500+ records is a very pedestrian 158-148 (.516). Ford was notoriously tough against Cleveland and Chicago and had a .606 record against winning teams. As for defense behind him, Spahn was a flyball pitcher and Ford was a groundball pitcher, so I’m not sure how much the mythical, magical Gil McDougald charged infield balances against whatever outfield the Braves fielded during Spahnie’s years. The Braves offense, by the way,… Read more »

Richard Chester

9 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

So afraid were the Braves to pitch Spahn against the Dodgers that from 1954-1957 he pitched all of 3.3 innings against them. He made one start during that time period and did not make it past the second inning, and he never threw a pitch in Ebbets Field.

David P

9 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

I think this is a bit unfair to Spahn. As I noted when we were debating Duke Snider, the Dodgers had a VERY righty hitting line-up (Snider was basically the only lefty). Hard to be successful under those conditions. That being said, Spahn’s career ERA was 3.28 vs. the Dodgers, not that different from his career ERA of 3.10. He had similar career ERAs of 3.33 against the Pirates and 3.24 against the Giants, teams he beat well over half the time (.566 and .590 respectively). That suggests that his difficulty beating the Dodgers was most likely due to lack… Read more »

Artie Z.

9 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

There is one other difference – if I recall correctly, Ford was “spotted” by Stengel as to which teams he would face, but he had limited innings. Spahn may or may not have been spotted by whoever his manager(s) was/were, I have no idea. But Ford never carried the workload like Spahn did. Ford’s innings look like something Halladay could have had – not quite, but someone who knows enough about baseball and different workloads in the different eras and who Roy Halladay is might think “That could be Halladay’s workload” when seeing Ford’s innings. Not so with Spahn. Ford… Read more »

David P

9 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

Artie Z. – There’s a guy named Jack Morris on line 1 for you. He’d like to have a little chat with you about this “teams beat teams” nonsense. 🙂 🙂

no statistician but

9 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

Beating the team you have to beat: If your team is a game back and you win against some other team, you’re only guaranteed the outcome of staying a game back. If you play the team ahead of you and win, you draw into a tie by virtue of your effort. You aren’t dependent on what happens in some other game between the team ahead of you and another team. Destiny is in your hands. Thus, the best way to stay ahead of the pack is to beat the leaders of the pack. The easiest way to get to the… Read more »

Richard Chester

9 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

Reply to @97:
Record of Yankee pitchers, other than Ford, vs. the White Sox, 1950, 1953-1967;
W = 146
L = 118
Pct. = .553

David P

9 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

Reply to #97 and #99 – I’m not sure it’s fair to include ’66 and ’67 since the Yankees weren’t in competition and Ford barely pitched those years.

Excluding those two year gives Ford a .638 winning percentage against the White Sox vs. .585 for other pitchers. (would prefer to limit this to just starters but I don’t have time to do that).

Anyway, Ford did have a bit higher winning % against the White Sox than the rest of the staff, but isn’t that to be expected from an ace???

David P

9 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

BTW, if you also exclude ’65 – another year in which the Yankees weren’t in contention – the gap narrows even more. .622 for Ford versus .593 for everyone else.

So in the end, not much of a difference. The rest of the Yankees staff beat the White Sox at about the same level as Ford.

Artie Z.

9 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

But the White Sox weren’t always the team to beat. From 1950-1967, the only times the White Sox finished within 10 games of first place (which pretty much means the Yankees) were: 1955 – they were in 3rd and 5 games out 1957 – they were in 2nd and 8 games out 1959 – they finished 1st 1964 – they were in 2nd and 1 game out 1965 and 1967, when it didn’t matter for the Yankees Looking at 1955, 1957, 1959, and 1964, when the White Sox were a team, perhaps the team, the Yankees needed to beat: Ford… Read more »

no statistician but

9 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

Artie Z: One last comment and I’m done: Where a team finishes in terms of games behind at the end of a season doesn’t necessarily have much to do with where it was earlier in the year when those head to head games might have been played. 1961, the year the Yankees ran away with the pennant with 109 wins? They were in second place behind Detroit from the get-go until late July. Just an example, as was my citing of Ford’s overall record against the Sox. Second quibble: don’t see much sense in faulting a good pitcher for pounding… Read more »

Artie Z.

9 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

Except that Koufax’s W/L Pct, while overall worse than Ford’s, was much better against +.500 teams. If anyone deserves an extra boost for beating the teams that need to be beaten, it’s Koufax, not Ford. Who cares if Koufax beats the team in last place, right? Because he’s beating the Giants or whoever else is in the race. One argument you’ve made is that Ford deserves extra credit because he won a lot against these teams he needed to beat. The gap method, which somewhat controls for the overall quality of the pitcher’s own team, shows that while his level… Read more »

bstar

9 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

Another problem with putting too much stock in this “win pct. vs. such-and-such team” stuff, in comparison to other pitchers on the same staff, is that we are not taking the “rest of staff” strength into consideration. Two pitchers on two different teams, both have a 120 ERA+. Same offense and defense on both teams, but the “rest-of-staff” on team A has an 87 ERA+. Team B’s rest-of-staff has a 102 ERA+. The pitcher on team B is going to look much worse than the pitcher on team A when we compare (winning % of pitcher) vs. (winning % of… Read more »

David Horwich

9 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Spahn pitched 2073 more innings than Ford. That’s about the same number of innings as Pat Hentgen or Danny Jackson pitched in their entire careers. (And if you add Hentgen’s or Jackson’s W-L to Ford’s you get something approximating Spahn’s W-L record.)

So you could say Warren Spahn = Whitey Ford + Pat Hentgen. That’s not a bad combination.

Dr. Remulak

9 years ago

Reply to Dr. Doom

Reliever vs. Starter irrelevance. And Rivera’s 206 blows away Wagner’s 187, even before discussing post-season performance.

Author

birtelcom

9 years ago

Reply to Dr. Remulak

Ford pitched 3,170 regular season innings in his career with that 133 ERA+. If you take Spahn’s 12 best ERA+ seasons (non-consecutive), they add up to 3,379 IP. His average ERA+ was 132.9 over those 12 seasons. Spahn also pitched almost 2,000 innings in addition to those 12 best ERA+ years, but I’m not sure that’s something we should hold against him in a comparison with Whitey.

Dr. Remulak

9 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

One could interpret that to mean Spahn’s BEST 12 years are about as good as Ford’s entire career. And that Spahn’s mediocre additional 2,000 innings allowed him to compile counting stats.

Artie Z.

9 years ago

Reply to Dr. Remulak

Except that in those additional 2,000 innings Spahn had seasons of 5.6, 4.1, 3.9, 3.3, 2.7, and 2.5 WAR, along with 3 not so good seasons – his first season and his last two seasons in which he posted -0.6, -1.9, and 0.7 WAR. On net for those additional 2,000 innings, he has a 5.6, 4.1, 3.9, 3.3, and 2.7 season, with the 2.5 being erased by the two negative WAR seasons, and not really caring about the 0.7 season in which he pitched 71 innings. All of that is on top of the 72.6 WAR he earned in his… Read more »

Darien

9 years ago

Reply to Dr. Remulak

I don’t get why people say “compiling” like it’s a bad thing. We should sneer at Warren Spahn for “compiling” three- and four-WAR seasons in addition to his superstar stuff? Like that’s not a good thing?

I mean, I guess I could see the argument if the guy’s whole case is built on “compiling” a prodigious number of IP, and he contributed effectively nothing while doing so. But it doesn’t take much of a look to see that that don’t much describe Warren Spahn.

Voomo Zanzibar

9 years ago

Reply to Darien

Could Ford have pitched 270 IP a year? That we don’t know. Workloads are in part variable due to the manager(s), in part due to the physical gifts of the pitcher. Clearly Spahn was a rare and great physical specimen. Using both counting stats and effectiveness stats, comparing the years in which they sustained being good pitchers: Spahn (1946 – 1963) WFord (1953 – 1965) 4857 IP 2941 IP 270 IP avg 226 IP avg 94.1 park Factor 94.6 park Factor 0.08 RA9def 0.26 RA9def 3.31/4.40 RA9/RA9opp 3.13/4.26 RA9/RA9opp That’s… 1.09+ 1.13+ 1.09 – 0.08 = 1.01+ 1.13 – 0.26… Read more »

Artie Z.

9 years ago

Reply to Darien

Darien – My guess is that it works in some cases. Take Harold Baines. There’s nothing wrong with Harold Baines as a player – he had a fine career, and a long career, but he wasn’t a dominant player. His career rankings in various categories: 19th – games played 35th – PAs 43rd – hits 38th – total bases 67th – doubles 60th – HRs 30th – RBI 94th – walks 51st – times on base But he didn’t play defense for most of his career, and he played in a high offense era for a good chunk of his… Read more »

Bill Johnson

9 years ago

Killebrew, Newhouser, and Wilhelm

aweb

9 years ago

Spahn, Brown, Killebrew. One new, one new again, one hanger-on.

Darien

9 years ago

Spahn, Lofton, and Sandberg. Also a shout-out to (but by no means a vote for) Hoot Evers, who for some reason was playing baseball instead of ropin’ do-gies on the lone prarie.

Author

birtelcom

9 years ago

Reply to Darien

According to his SABR bio, Evers was indeed nicknamed after a cowboy: rodeo performer and early cowboy-movie actor Hoot Gibson. http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/f6f63877

Mike HBC

9 years ago

Spahn, Campanella, Ford

mosc

9 years ago

Reply to Mike HBC

I agree with this ballot, same as the first poster in the thread, but I’m saving my vote for the evening of July 2nd. 15 candidates…

jeff hill

9 years ago

Spahn, Lofton, Ford

Artie Z.

9 years ago

I don’t think I’ve actually voted yet:

Spahn, Kevin Brown, and Murray

If Alomar falls off hopefully he’ll get through the next redemption round.

oneblankspace

9 years ago

Warren Spahn
Two days of rain

that won’t work? I’ll have to think some more

9 years ago

Spahn and Fain and two days of… oh wait

Spahn
McCovey
Minoso

Author

birtelcom

9 years ago

For the record: “Spahn and Sain and pray for rain” is memorable as a vivid summary of a 17-game stretch from Sept. 3 to Sept. 21, 1948. The Braves had not won an NL pennant in 44 years, but were .003 percentage points ahead of Brooklyn for first place when play began on September 3 (and only 1.5 games ahead of the Cardinals and 2.5 games ahead of Pittsburgh). When play ended on Sept 21, the Braves were in first by 7.5 games, with 9 games left in the regular season. The team had won 15 of their previous 17… Read more »

9 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

You’re right, it is “pray for rain” which turns out to be the shortened version of the “poem” which ends with “two days of rain.” Too early for me to remember The Boston Post (which the sports writer who wrote it worked for). Though I faintly recall the old Record American, which apparently published 5 to 6 editions a day. Whoa.

9 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

In cricket (where rain can determine the outcome of a match) there’s the philosophical question, “is it cowardly to pray for rain?”. I never realised that the Braves had settled the debate over 65 years ago.

Chris C

9 years ago

Spahn, Biggio, McCovey

For the record (and I know I’m in the minority) I think redemption rounds should be about once every 3-4 years and only to elect one player. By flooding the ballot, excessive votes will be used to save the bubble guys and the safety rounds built up for others will be whittled away. Regardless, I enjoy the process.

Hartvig

9 years ago

Reply to Chris C

I agree with you but I suspect that at least one fairly large factor in why we don’t do that is all the extra work it would entail. I imagine redemption rounds are even more complicated than our regular yearly ballots and frankly I’m amazed- and very appreciative- that birtelcom has stuck with it as long as he has.

But like it or not I’m guessing we’re going to see at least 3 or 4 names fall off the ballot in the next few rounds.

Kirk

9 years ago

Spahn deserves to win and since it appears he will, I have to vote for three guys on the bubble – Alomar, Doby and Killebrew.

Voomo Zanzibar

9 years ago

Eckersley

361 games started
577 games finished

Nobody else has done 300/500, of course.
Nobody else has 300/300

In fact, only 7 other pitchers have done 200/200
By games:

1071Eck
890 Tom Gordon
858 Charlie Hough
756 Jack Quinn
751 Ron Reed
736 Ron Kline
723 John Smoltz
542 Sylvester Johnson

oneblankspace

9 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

of course, a complete game does not count as a game finished

mosc

9 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Wilbur Wood isn’t far off your lists. He was rarely used as a “closer”, instead the rubber armed middle relief but he did appear in 651 games, starting 297 of them. He was used as the game’s final relief pitcher only 84 times though where Eck did that 477 times in his career.

Still, it’s hard to say Eck was much more than Wilbur Wood with a longer career (7 more seasons). Both had most of their value as STARTERS not RELIEVERS.

Author

birtelcom

9 years ago

Reply to mosc

For what it’s worth, Eckersley totaled 17.1 Win Probability Added as a relief pitcher, out of his career total of 30.8.

bstar

9 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

So that’s 17.1 WPA for Eck as a reliever but only 13.7 as a starter.

And yet (approximate values):

Eck reliever WAR: 17
Eck starter WAR: 45

This really underscores the fact that WPA can work as a value estimate for relievers but not for starters.

Doug

9 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Sylvester Johnson is a curious one. It’s not like he was a starter for part of his career and a reliever for another. Instaed, he was a swingman for pretty much his whole career. – No seasons with 25 starts, Had 3 seasons with 20+ starts that were more than 60% of his games. – 6 seasons with 10+ starts, that were less than 60% of his games – 6 more seasons with 5+ starts – 2 seasons primarily as a reliever (1 and 2 starts) – 2 “cup of coffee” seasons – no starts, 16 IP total Other than… Read more »

David Horwich

9 years ago

Alomar, Campanella, Murray

Editor

Bryan O'Connor

9 years ago

Most Wins Above Average, excluding negative seasonal totals:

Spahn 46.7
Brown 43.3
Lofton 39.3
McCovey 38.9
Sandberg 38.8
Newhouser 38.5
Alomar 37.1
Biggio 36.3
Eckersley 34.3
Ashburn 33.9
Murray 33.7
Killebrew 33.0
Doby 32.2
Minoso 30.6
Ford 29.3
Wilhelm 28.7
Kiner 27.0
Campanella 19.2
Pollet (whose birthday is today) 18.3

What a ballot! I was looking forward to digging into Wilhelm’s case vs. Eckersley’s, but with Spahn, Newhouser, and Campanella hitting the ballot and Brown coming back, I’m not sure I need to. Let’s hope they’re both still around next time.

Spahn, Brown, Campanella

Doug

9 years ago

Spahn, Wilhelm, Kiner

I don’t think people properly appreciate how dominant Wilhelm was. Not quite Mariano dominant, but not far off. He has 10 seasons of 75 IP with 150 ERA+. Nobody else has more than 7. At 75/175, Wilhelm still leads with 5 seasons, tied with Mariano and Gossage. At 100/150, Wilhelm leads with 5 seasons, tied with Sparky Lyle.

Michael Sullivan

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

those are good figures, but I think I have an idea of how dominant he was. He ran at .022 WAR/IP for his career, which is an extremely strong number. Only 43 pitchers have maintained this rate for a while career of at least 600 IP. That said, it’s instructive to look at the list in more detail. Most of the list is the better relievers of the last 30-40 years since relievers began to specialize. It includes Rivera, of course, along with nearly everyone we think of as the greatest relievers: Hoffman, Wagner, Quisenberry, Sutter, Gossage, HIller, and a… Read more »

mosc

9 years ago

Reply to Michael Sullivan

I agree with Mike. Mariano is the definitive relief pitcher. I think all the others have a very hard time differentiating themselves from the pack. I have a hard time saying Wilhelm is clearly better than Hoffman, Wagner, Quisenberry, Sutter, Gossage, Hiller. That’s not bad company but it’s hard to elect these pure relievers. We had a hard enough time respecting the relief contributions of Smoltz and don’t seem to like Eckersley very much in this process either. I’d take those guys due to the SP value along with Gossage over Wilhelm. Gossage has 31.1 post season relief innings of… Read more »

bstar

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

Doug, I don’t know if you’re one of those guys who is interested in how much team defense can affect pitcher ERA and ERA+. But, if you are one of those guys, most of Wilhelm’s really high ERA+ years came when he had really good defenses behind him in Baltimore and Chicago. For his career, Wilhelm’s defenses saved him 0.18 runs per 9, or about 45 runs over his 2200+ innings. To me, 45 runs is too significant to ignore. Also, ERA+ cannot measure the amount of unearned runs that Wilhelm gave up. Wilhelm’s UER% (ER/R) is almost 19. With… Read more »

Doug

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

All good points, guys. Thanks for making them.

I have to admit I have a bias for knucklers. Just because of their non-conformity. But, I understand the opposing view.

no statistician but

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

My recollection of Wilhelm coming into pitch was that the home team fans were always on edge because of the wild pitches and passed balls. He wasn’t regarded as the sure thing he looks in retrospect—and he wasn’t. Here are some interesting lines for the discussion, according to me: Batters faced: Spahn 19015; Ford 12964; Koufax 9495; Wilhelm 8897; Gossage 7506; W. Wood 11130; M. Rivera 51034 Bases taken: Spahn 202; Ford 182; Koufax 170; Wilhelm 504; Gossage 89; Wood 306; Rivera 72 Percentage of times runner scored from third w/less than two outs: Spahn 48%; Ford 46%; Koufax 40%;… Read more »

Doug

9 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

Good additions, nsb.

That also helps to explain the high unearned run rate for Wilhelm that bstar noted.

Voomo Zanzibar

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

Maybe Wilhelm’s teams should have come up with some better catchers.

J.C. Martin and Gus Triandos took on 37% of his innings.

Martin didn’t start catching until his 7th year of professional ball. The following season he squatted in front of Wilhelm.

Triandos: “Catching Hoyt was such a miserable experience, I just wanted to end the game.”

oneblankspace

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

And Bob Uecker’s theory on the easiest way to catch a knuckleball:

Wait till it stops rolling.

no statistician but

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

Voomo:

Actually, Martin was brought in to games to catch Wilhelm because no one else could. I might be dreaming this, but I seem to recall that Wilhelm’s knuckler was something out of the ordinary in terms of unpredictability. His SABR player bio seems to back me on this.

Richard Chester

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

At least in his early years Wilhelm’s catchers used oversized mitts.

brp

9 years ago

Reply to Doug

Wilhelm proved he could do it as a starter, too. In his one year primarily as a starter, 1959, he lead the league in ERA+. He also had 100+ innings pitched 11 different times, so had much heavier usage than the modern relievers.

Votes:
Wilhelm
Spahn
Murray

opal611

9 years ago

For the 1921 election, I’m voting for:
-Warren Spahn
-Craig Biggio
-Roberto Alomar

Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):
-Sandberg
-Murray
-Eckersley
-Lofton
-McCovey
-Killebrew
-Ashburn
-Ford
-Wilhelm
-Brown
-Newhouser

Richard Chester

9 years ago

Ford, Spahn, McCovey