The right time, the right place and the left arm combined to place Sandy Koufax among the most famous and popular baseball players ever. High Heat Stats voters were a bit skeptical, but he’s now been elected, in his 19th round on the ballot, as the 61st inductee into the High Heat Stats Circle of Greats. More on Sandy and the voting, after the jump.

When the statistics that numerate fans, such as HHS readers, have come to use most frequently seem at odds with historical opinion, it is sometimes useful to check the Win Probability Added (WPA) statistic (look back, for example, at the 1984 AL Cy Young Award).   We don’t tend to use WPA, given its various limitations, as often as other sabermetric stats. But it can sometimes be useful. A stat that by design incorporates the flow of game play, WPA may help re-capture a sense of what fans at the time were seeing as the games were being played.

Win Probability Added numbers at baseball-reference go back to the 1940 season.  Here are the highest five-season sequences of pitching in terms of total Win Probability Added, as far back as b-ref’s numbers go:

1. Sandy Koufax (1962-1966) 33.37
2. Greg Maddux (1993-1997) 29.97
3. Sandy Koufax (1963-1966) 29.86
4. Pedro Martinez (1997-2001) 29.81
5. Greg Maddux (1994-1998) 29.51

And here are the top four-season sequences:
1. Sandy Koufax (1962-1966) 29.86
2. Pedro Martinez (1997-2000) 26.34
3. Sandy Koufax (1962-1965) 25.39
4. Greg Maddux (1992-1995) 25.35
5. Greg Maddux (1994-1997) 24.36

Not only is Koufax’s best five-year sequence substantially ahead of anyone else’s, his final four years sit third among all five-year sequences despite the fact that he didn’t even pitch in that fifth year.

Using Wins Above Replacement (WAR), or Wins Above Average (WAA), or ERA+, Sandy’s peak is comparable to, or maybe a bit behind, those of a few others, such as Maddux, Pedro, Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson. Koufax’s is still an extraordinary peak based on those measures, but it’s not unique, and because so many other pitchers had much longer periods of success, if Koufax’s peak is not truly transcendent, doubts arise over Koufax’s objective status among the all-time greats. Yet if one goes by Win Probability Added standards instead, Koufax’s performance in the mid-1960s does indeed begin to seem transcendent, achieving a level of success well beyond what anyone else, within the currently measurable time frame, has accomplished over comparable sequences of seasons.

What is Koufax’s extraordinarily high WPA during his peak telling us that WAR or ERA+, for example, are not? Part of the goal of stats such as WAR and ERA+ is to remove some of the context of an individual baseball player’s performance, so that his achievements can be measured neutrally across space and time. Thus purified, these measures can be used to evaluate a player without the contamination of biases such as the ballpark he played in most often, or the era in which he played, or the quality (or lack thereof) of his teammates. Such a paring away of context is a worthy goal, and I’m a firm endorser, and user, of stats like WAR. But perhaps there is also a place for stats that, in seeking to measure a player’s full historical accomplishment, try to re-introduce more of the historical context in which he performed. It may be that Sandy Koufax’s unrivaled four-year and five-year sequences of peak Win Probability Added restore a greater statistical recognition that he pitched at his peak in actual historical conditions that made him, for a significant period of time, arguably as valuable to his team as any pitcher of at least the last 75 years.

Yes, Koufax did pitch, in the mid-1960s, in one of the lowest scoring eras in major league history, and his home park was very pitcher-friendly. WAR and ERA+ , etc., adjust for those matters and Sandy’s record looks less impressive after such adjustments than it does when we look at his raw stats. But WPA reminds us, perhaps, that Koufax was also pitching in an environment in which close, low-scoring games were the norm, for a team that scored very few runs but was usually competitive anyway. WPA suggests that Koufax performed at the highest level in a time and a place when runs were an especially valuable commodity and for a team regularly playing close games in which runs were at an even greater premium. What fans saw at the time was Koufax, over five years or so, pitching in one tight, low-scoring game after another and bringing his team toward success, in that intense setting, like no one else.

Sandy Koufax has been idolized in part for reasons that go beyond the baseball diamond — he was handsome and charismatic, with a bi-coastal career arc and a religious background that gave his personal story an interesting twist and a special connection to many baseball fans (like me). Plus, Koufax’s abrupt retirement at his peak preserved in amber an image of invincibility, without the erosion toward vulnerability that usually arrives with a great ballplayer’s decline phase. But Koufax’s unique peak-period Win Probability Added numbers suggest that his special fame was also earned on the field, as he put up spectacular performance numbers not just in an abstract, neutralized sense, but in a context in which they resonated with extraordinary value in the peculiarly urgent and demanding environment in which he pitched.

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Notes on the 61st voting round:

–Koufax actually received one fewer vote than he received in the last round, but on a percentage basis that was good for a bump from his 40% last round to 44% this round. Yet this wasn’t Sandy’s best percentage round either: he appeared on 46% of the ballots in the 1932 round, but came in way behind Al Kaline (71%) in that one.

–On the other hand, Willie McCovey’s vote total this round was the highest he’s gotten, in any of his 24 rounds on our ballot. Willie received 24 votes, one more than he received in his debut on the ballot, which had been his previous high-water mark.

–The very last ballot cast this round put Ryne Sandberg and Craig Biggio over the 25% level, giving them each an extra round of eligibility protection. Kenny Lofton, Willie McCovey and Whitey Ford all also added an extra round to their respective reserves of protected eligibility.

–On the other hand, two newcomers to the ballot, Hoyt Wilhelm and Ralph Kiner, while garnering more than enough support to return for another round, fell just short of the 25% support needed to avoid “bubble” status in the upcoming 1921 voting. Wilhelm missed the magic 25% level by two votes, and Kiner by a paltry single vote. That may be important in the upcoming round, as we will have nine guys on the bubble next round, immediately vulnerable to dropping off the ballot.  Doby, Ashburn, Killebrew and Murray remain on the bubble, Wilhelm and Kiner now join them, and the Redemption Round returnees, Roberto Alomar, Kevin Brown and Dennis Eckersley, will now also be part of that group of the most vulnerable candidates.  There will be a bit of a rugby scrum at the bottom of the ballot for the 1921 vote, and the image of a rugby scrum taking place on a bubble is not a picture of security for anyone.

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The full spreadsheet showing this round’s vote tally is here: COG 1922 Part 2 Vote Tally.

The vote summary for recent Circle of Greats voting rounds is here: COG Vote Summary 2 .  An archive with fuller details of the 1968 through 1939 rounds is here: COG 1968-1939 Vote Summary .  In both cases, raw vote totals for each past round appears on Sheet 1 and the percentage totals for each past round appears on Sheet 2.

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A spreadsheet listing the full membership to date of the Circle of Greats is here: Circle of Greats Membership . You can also now find that same link any time by clicking on “Circle of Greats” at the top of the High Heats Stats home page.