Catching Up with Game Notes — thru Saturday, July 12

Fell into a vicious cycle last week, never quite able to finish a day’s work. Damn the sentence fragments; full speed ahead!

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Tigers 16, @Royals 4 (Thurs.) — Payback …
Tigers 2, @Royals 1 (Fri.) — … lived up to …
Tigers 5, @Royals 1 (Sat.) — its reputation. Since KC took those three in Motown to snatch first place, they’ve gone 8-14, and the Tigers 17-5 in building a season-high 7.5-game lead.

 

If the opening beat-down was painful to the Royals, the next two were excruciating. Friday, KC out-hit Detroit by 11-5, but gave away the lead run on Danny Duffy’s pickoff error. Seven Royals in the last three frames alone might have tied the game with just a single. Six of them made contact, the team’s specialty. But nothing would fall, and so the Royals did — to 3-8 against Detroit this year, half those defeats by one run. Their 10-18 one-run record represents the most AL losses, and MLB’s worst percentage.

Saturday started much the same. Detroit scratched two-out runs off James Shields in the 3rd and 4th, while KC’s first two threats melted into two more DP grounders for Rick Porcello. Shields held the line through seven, but another Royals rumbling died with bags full in the 5th. A sac fly in the 6th filled half the hole, but the last 11 Royals went down in order, while the Bengals bombed two in the 9th to pull away.

  • KC batters, who totaled 2 walks and 9 strikeouts Friday & Saturday, represent the pros and cons of an emphasis on contact hitting. They have MLB’s lowest totals of whiffs and walks, and (as you’d guess) the AL’s lowest average pitches per PA. Attacking early helps put balls in play, hence their .265 BA (4th in AL). But they’re dead last in bases per hit, 9% below the AL average. On PAs settled early (0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1), KC’s bases per hit is 15% below the other AL clubs. Working counts does play a role in power hitting.

In Thursday’s opener, Miguel Cabrera’s 2-run double in the 4th broke Detroit’s string of 34 straight scoring singletons. Their prior two-run event was a Victor Martinez homer in the 1st inning last Thursday.

  • Torii Hunter and Nick Castellanos each had two hits in the 8-run 5th.
  • Eric Hosmer’s homer with two out in the 7th foiled Drew Smyly’s bid to go five-for-five in starts of 6+ IP and 2 runs or less against the Royals. Against all other teams, he’s 9 of 28.

Poll: Who’s the top random overachiever of the first half: Steve Pearce, J.D. Martinez, or someone else?

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Phillies 9, @Brewers 1 (Thurs.) — “And I’m freeeee …

Cardinals 7, @Brewers 6 (Fri.) — “… free-falling’ …

Cardinals 10, @Brewers 2 (Sat.) — “… (free-fallin’, I’m-a … free-fallin’ … )

On Friday — with their backs to the wall, after a 1-9 stretch made this weekend’s series a surprise showdown for first place — the Brewers made some early statements: Three runs in the 1st, fueled by three free baserunners for a team that doesn’t walk much, and a double-steal against now-starting catcher Tony Cruz (better known as “anyone but Yadier”). A pair of triples in the 2nd built the lead out to 6-0, and Yovani Gallardo looked ready to snap his Cardinal hex.

But chip, chip, chip went the Redbirds, driving Gallardo off in the 6th with the lead slashed to one. And as of late, there was no relief in sight for the Brewers. Rob Wooten filled the sacks with three straight Cards, capped by a walk to Cruz (career .235 BA/66 OPS+), and a chopper by Oscar Taveras brought the tying run. Trying to keep it square into the home 9th, Francisco Rodriguez handled two with ease, but hung the first pitch to Matt Holliday, and watched his 7th homer in his last 25 innings. The Brewers got a leadoff runner in their last gasp, but Trevor Rosenthal locked him tight to first base, whiffing Ryan Braun and Khris Davis before assisting on the final out.

  • The Brewers’ bullpen has a 5.40 ERA in 32 IP since June 27, with a combined 11 runs in 9 IP by Will Smith and K-Rod.
  • The Cards looked for a lift as Joe Kelly returned from almost three months out. But rust was evident, just as in his rehab results (6 walks and 4 Ks in 10.1 IP).
  • Milwaukee has no sympathy to spare for the injuries to their pursuers. The 6-game slide is their worst in more than a year, cutting their collective lead on last year’s playoff trio from 17.5 games down to six. They could drop to 3rd place by Sunday.
  • Heartbreaking news for Jean Segura.

Saturday put two red-hot righties in the ring, Adam Wainwright and rookie Jimmy Nelson, with first place at stake. The bout was stopped on cuts in the 5th round. Wainwright completely mastered Milwaukee to that point, sporting an 8-0 lead before the Brewers had their second hit. Nelson had dominated triple-A this year, and yielded just one run in two prior career starts, but today, the third-out recipe escaped him. All 8 runs charged to his account came with two out, including Kolten Wong’s 5th HR in 7 games.

To recount more of Milwaukee’s plunge seems almost sadistic, but … On Thursday, hoping to avert a four-game sweep at home by last-place Philadelphia, Matt Garza led 1-0 after seven, working towards a second straight two-hitter by that score. After a one-out double (on 0-2) and then a full-count walk, a groundout moved the runners up for Jimmy Rollins. After 16 pitches in the inning, 108 in the game, Garza gave way to Will Smith, with nightmare consequences.

The move’s only logic was a fresh arm. Although he’d busted Garza’s no-hitter in the 7th, the switch-hitting Rollins is 6 for 26 against the righty, and has no platoon differential, this year or career. Garza has fared better against lefties than has Smith against righties, both this year and career. Smith took damage in his previous two games, losing both, and after starting the year so strong, he came in here with a 17-game stretch of .288 BA/.917 OPS. One might consider Garza’s career splits after 100 pitches, and also (since such splits are often warped by how the pitcher is managed) his small sample of results with two out in the 8th or 9th and men aboard. The fresh arm still might justify the move; we don’t know how Garza felt, or what he really did have in the tank. It’s just a shame he got the loss.

  • 7 runs in the 8th is a new MLB high for what’s been the lowest-scoring frame this year, with a rate of 3.69 runs per nine innings before this (4.07 in the 9th).

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Pirates 9, @Cardinals 1 (Thurs.) — Not to say we’re shocked by Edinson Volquez’s recent consistency … but it is his first 4-game streak of 6+ IP and one run or less, and just the second time he’s even met the first part of that combo.

@Reds 6, Pirates 5 (Fri.) — In other late-reversal news … Pittsburgh led 5-3 in the 8th, behind long-balls by their power core, and Tony Watson (one of this year’s best setup men) had “two dead, one dying” with a 1-2 count. But the fastball scheduled to arrive belt-high to Devin Mesoraco missed its plane, and that rocket was boosted by four straight singles from Cincy’s supporting cast. Liners by Ramon Santiago and pinch-hitter Brayan Pena scored the tying and lead runs, as Watson tied his season high by facing seven batters.

  • Cincinnati’s 21-9 run is tied with LAA for the best “last 30.” How their injuries will affect the second half is anybody’s guess, but I don’t think Bryan Price enjoyed Billy Hamilton’s daredevil dive as much as we fans did — especially after Billy missed Thursday’s start with a tight leg. I’ll just bet that Bryan Price would rather take the out there, if it helps him reach the Break without losing another every-day player.
  • Another fair bet: Pittsburgh must improve on 12-25 against the other three division contenders if they’re to stay relevant. After this set, they have just six games left with each.
  • Remember the first batter Curtis Partch ever faced? His other bases-full encounters in last year’s brief trial resulted in two walks and a double. His next such chance came in this game, after walking Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez. Ike Davis had been 4 for 7 with 13 RBI (two slams, a double and a walk), but this time his thirst went unquenched, as Partch punched him out to get in line for his first win.
  • If you can find a pitcher less likely than Partch (majors, minors) to get a second Show trial, I’d like to know his name.

Pirates 6, @Reds 5 (Sat.) — And then, there’s Cutch. Charlie Morton blew a 4-0 lead in the 5th on 5 runs’ worth of long-ball by Chris Heisey and Todd Frazier. But Andrew McCutchen answered with a tying homer in the 9th off Jonathan Broxton, then banged the winner with two out in the 11th. The Bucs pulled a Houdini in the Cincy 10th, after Ernesto Frieri’s night began and ended with two 5-pitch walks. Jay Bruce pulled Justin Wilson’s 3-1 pitch for a single, but Gregory Polanco’s throw home caught Ramon Santiago. The other runners moved up on the play, and an IBB to Devin Mesoraco put Wilson on the spot. But he whiffed Ryan Ludwick and Brayan Pena, without so much as a foul ball.

  • First HR off Broxton since last August. Bucs own five of his last six bombs allowed, including a Cutch walk-off in 2012.
  • First player since Matt Adams last September with two tying or go-ahead home runs in the 9th or later, in one game.

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@Dodgers 1, Padres 0 (Sat.) — Adrian Gonzalez doubled to start the home 9th — the game’s 9th and final hit, and first for extra bases. After Matt Kemp whiffed and Andre Ethier was passed, Juan Uribe worked one of his own rare walks to fill the sacks, and A.J. Ellis stayed alive from 0-and-2 to deliver this year’s second lone-run walk-off sac fly. The Padres got 5 singles and nothing else, with six one-two-three innings, and didn’t get a man to second base until two out in the 9th, when Yasmani Grandal fanned.

  • Dodgers have the NL’s best record, for the first time since April 3.
  • LA’s one prior walk-off win was April 8, the longest drought of any team.
  • Ian Kennedy is the first Padre to go 8+ scoreless innings in a team loss since Jake Peavy, 2009
  • Their last walk-off from 0-0 was Yasiel Puig’s lone game-winner, off Curtis Partch. (Where have I heard that name?)

Padres 6, @Dodgers 3 (Fri.) — Carlos Quentin broke out of an 8-for-82 funk with two hits that plated three, to help the Friars stop another 3-game skid, their 9th this year at least that long. Jesse Hahn improved to 5-2 with six strong frames in his first taste of this SoCal rivalry. LA’s loss dropped them to 23-24 at home, and back into a first-place tie with the Giants.

  • Among first-years with at least 4 starts, Hahn’s 2.21 ERA trails only teammate Odrisamer Despaigne (1.35).
  • In the 8th, Dodgers were on third and second with none out, but Joaquin Benoit punched through.
  • Houston and Arizona also have nine losing streaks of three or more.

I don’t want to believe that a big-leaguer could do something this dumb (roll from 1:37). Few situations could offer so little value from a base advance. But then, we’ve seen Yasiel play baseball. His 12 outs on base this year already match last year’s MLB high. Weren’t we told he had cut down on bonehead blunders? Fans who savor amped-up antics by Puig and his ilk should watch this play a hundred times (under the right conditions) while reciting, “The inherent cost of unchecked emotion on a ballfield.” Puigs have no situational sense, because they see every moment through a lens of, “How can I make the highlight reel?” Congratulations, Yasiel — you made it.

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@Giants 5, Diamondbacks 0 (Fri.) — Are we buying stock in Freak-dot-comeback yet? Seven commanding innings in Tim Lincecum’s fourth straight win, starting with his second no-hitter, continuing with 10 hits and one run over his next 21.1 IP. You can say he’s whupped some dogs, but the Giants are 2-12 since June 23 outside of Timmy’s turns.

  • This is by far Lincecum’s best stretch within the last three seasons. He had two other 4-start win streaks — mid-2009, his second Cy Young campaign, and then the start of 2010. (Career record then was 44-17; it’s 54-58 since.) Two other 4-start streaks with one run or less in each, in July and August of 2011.
  • This year’s consecutive-start win streaks with one run or less in each: Kershaw 7; Lincecum, Mark Buehrle and Edinson Volquez, 4 each.

Diamondbacks 2, @Giants 0 (Sat.) — San Francisco’s 5th shutout loss in their last 13 games dropped them back out of first place and into tie for the second wild card. The Giants had 5 hits or less in all five shutouts, and totaled two extra-base hits.

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Cubs 6, @Reds 4 (Thurs., 12 inn.) — The Legend of Arismendy …

@Cubs 5, Bravos 4 (Fri.) — … grows. After Atlanta tied it up with two out in their 9th, the rookie second baseman Arismendy Alcantara followed his breakout game with a two-out knock in the bottom half, then bagged his first steal, and scurried home on Justin Ruggiano’s second two-out ribby.

  • Atlanta had 6 hits and 3 walks, plus one Chicago error. How’d they get 15 ABs with men in scoring position? Four doubles, three steals, and a man who only went second-to-third on a no-out double.
  • Jake Arrieta surrendered 3 runs for the first time in eight starts, but he left in the 8th with a 4-3 lead. Hector Rondon has struggled since late May, but name a reliable Cubs reliever. Brian Schlitter, I guess.
  • Andrelton Simmons’s dWAR decline this year might stem from big-impact plays like Ruggiano’s game-winning grounder  that hit the infield lip and hopped over his outstretched glove. Last year, maybe he knocks it down.

On Thursday, Luis Valbuena’s two-out triple in the 12th snapped his 0-for-12, and capped a comeback win that broke a six-game skid since their top two starting pitchers were dealt away. Alcantara led the Cubs with 4 hits in his second MLB game, driving in their first three runs and scoring the next two. His triple with one out in the 10th went for naught, as Jumbo Diaz pitched around a pair of lefties, while fanning Starlin Castro on three pitches and getting Justin Ruggiano to pop out.

  • The four irregulars in Cincy’s lineup — CF Chris Heisey led off, 1B(?) Brayan Pena hit 4th, 2B Ramon Santiago hit 6th, and newby C Tucker Barnhart hit 8th — went a combined 3-19, but they chipped in 3 walks, 2 runs, a ribby, and some leathercraft.

Back to Alcantara … First things first: Although both are Dominican, I can’t find anything that says Arismendy is related to the infamous Izzy. Okay, now: Since 1914, among a player’s first two games:

  • Fourth Cub with a 4-hit game (all in their second game): Don Johnson (1943, also at 2B in extra innings), Coaker Triplett (1938) and Sparky Adams (1922, also at 2B). Chicago had at least 16 hits in those three games, just 10 today.
  • First Cub with a double and a triple.
  • 11th in MLB with a single, double and triple. Only the famous superstars Gil Flores (1977), Ed Freed (1942) and Ralph Mattis (1914 Federal, never played in the real majors) have done it in a debut.

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@Phillies 6, Nationals 2 (Fri.) — Despite this game, the Nats have an NL-best 33-15 record against sub-.500 teams, 16-27 against the rest. But their second-half schedule is none too daunting: just 28 of 69 games against teams who now have winning records, and 18 of their last 24 with the division’s also-rans (against whom they’re 14-7 so far).

  • July is when the injuries start to mount. Jordan Zimmermann had to leave mid-batter in the 4th, already down 4-0.
  • Do you think Cameron Rupp‘s parents are big college hoops fans? Maybe his mom’s a Dukie, and bargained for the future naming rights, to offset the sting of marrying a Rupp.

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@Mets 5, Marlins 4 (Sat.) — Two big pinch-hits — Chris Young’s 2-run homer in the 7th, Eric Campbell’s 2-out single in the 8th — paced a double-comeback win that put the Mets at 7-2 on this homestand, and over .500 at home for the first time this year, with a chance to grab third place in the division at the Break.

Ruben Tejada had no official at-bats, yet was central to a pair of 2-run innings: First came a suicide squeeze against a wicked curveball, tying matters in the 5th. Back down by two with one out in the 7th, Tejada battled out a 9-pitch walk that started 1-and-2, and finished the workday of Tom Koehler, who’d held the Mets to 2 hits on the day and a 2.21 ERA in six starts since last year. Bryan Morris brought his 0.00 ERA to bear on Young, but that number vanished with a first-pitch slider that split the plate and didn’t bite.

  • Daisuke Matsuzaka’s 10 strikeouts tied his career high. That surprised me, since he fanned 201 in 2007. From 2004-13, out of 73 pitchers with at least 190 Ks in any season, only Dice-K never topped 10 in a game during that span. The others all had at least two games at 11+, except Curt Schilling and Homer Bailey.
  • 14 games since Giancarlo Stanton’s last home run, 12 since an extra-base hit. Pure random fluctuation.
  • Pinch-hitting is hard: the NL pinch-hitting average this year is .205. Young in his career is 14 for 51 (.275), with 2 HRs and 13 walks. The rookie Campbell is 6 for 12 with 3 walks, 3 doubles and 3 RBI.
  • Travis d’Arnaud started two rallies with base hits. Since coming back from the minors, he’s 18 for 61 (.295), slugging .525. You’d have to have seen him before to fully grasp the difference, but these counts will do in a pinch: 9 RBI and 6 XBH in his first 39 games, 10 RBI and 8 XBH in his last 16.
  • Kirk Nieuwenhuis is 14 for 46 this year, with 10 extra-base hits (.630 SLG). The Mets are 9-0 when he starts, all vs. RHPs; they’re 26-40 in other games started by RHPs.
  • The Mets have thrived mainly by quality over quantity in this homestand. Five of seven wins saw the Mets get 7 hits or less, and get out-hit by 47-33 combined. But they had more extra-base hits in those games (19-17), and their 7 HRs plated 12 runs, while their foes’ 6 HRs scored 7 runs.

@Mets 7, Marlins 1 (Fri.) — Henderson Alvarez had allowed 9 runs and one homer in his last 9 starts, and 4 runs and no HRs in 35.2 IP over five prior starts for Miami against the Mets. Proving once more that you should never bet on baseball.

  • Worth noting once again: David Wright has 6 HRs at home this year, just two on the road. Lucas Duda’s split is 9/5. Curtis Granderson has 18 XBH at home, 12 on the road. The Mets have more HRs at home (38-34), and more isolated power. Whatever “it” is that has often ailed this lineup this year, it’s not the park.

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Angels 5, @Rangers 2 (Sat.) — When the North-going Zax met the South-going Zax, there was a stand-off. These parties were close as recently as June 16: Angels 37-32, Rangers 35-35. But they’ve long since parted ways, with hardly a word in passing. Texas is 3-21 since then, with skids of 8, 6, and now 7 games, while LA has gone 19-5 to lock up MLB’s 2nd-best record at the Break.

Angels 3, @Rangers 0 (Fri.)Garrett Richards rolls on. His string of eight starts with 6+ IP and no more than 6 hits or 3 runs is the longest ever by an Angel in one season. Totals for that span: 56.2 IP, 33 hits, 8 runs, 63 Ks.

  • Richards is #1 in lowest SLG among all qualifiers, #4 in BA. In the AL, he’s 5th in ERA, 4th in FIP.

Angels 15, @Rangers 6 (Thurs.) — The score was 9-2 before the first out in the Angels’ 2nd, and 13-2 after Mike Trout’s bomb put Colby Lewis out of his misery, having retired just 7 of 20 batters. That was enough for Hector Santiago finally to join the Halos’ win parade, his first victory in 17 starts since last August.

  • One other starter since 1914 allowed at least 13 runs in less than 3 innings: Pat Caraway vs. Murderers’ Row in 1931.
  • Most runs allowed by any pitcher since Vin Mazzaro took one for the team in May 2011. Most by a starter since a 2010 game that drove Scott Kazmir to the disabled list.
  • If the end is near for Lewis — he’s 34, coming off two years of injury, sporting the worst ERA/ERA+ among regular starters, and not signed beyond this year — let’s remember his stellar work in the 2010-11 postseasons: Eight starts, 4-1 with a 2.34 ERA.

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@Mariners 3, Athletics 2 (Fri.) — It’s official: The best first half of King Felix’s nine full seasons. Hernandez overcame Stephen Vogt’s 1st-inning homer — just the 5th off Felix this year, and 2nd by a lefty — to last 8 innings and best the A’s for the third time in four tries this year, while handing Jeff Samardzija his first AL loss. Seattle’s just-enough attack featured a solo shot by Logan Morrison (batting 4th due to a prior Shark attack), Brad Miller’s leadoff double followed by productive outs, and 2-out two-baggers by James Jones and Robinson Cano, both landing just fair.

@Mariners 6, Athletics 2 (Sat.) — Hisashi Iwakuma made a shutout bid, tasting the 9th inning for the first time in his 62 career starts. It tasted like Moss.

  • Are we still worried about Robbie Cano’s power? A 3-run shot tonight put Cano on pace for 97 RBI — most by a Mariner since 2008, and exactly what he averaged in his last seven years (in a higher run context). More to the point, his .334 BA and .392 OBP would rank #2 and #1 for his career; his OPS+ is near his best seasons; he’s hitting .373 with men in scoring position; and the M’s will hit the Break in firm possession of a wild-card seat.

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Thursday, July 10

@Dodgers 2, Padres 1 — Or, “The Three-Hit Disappointment?” Clayton Kershaw’s streak of 41 shutout innings ended abruptly in the 6th, on Chase Headley’s two-out solo homer. At one-and-two, Headley was set to be the southpaw’s eighth strikeout victim, but he fouled off three in a row, then put good wood on a fastball and watched it just clear the wall in left-center, tying the game. Hanley Ramirez helped snatch the lead right back, and Kershaw clamped down to retire 10 of the last 11 Padres, finishing with 11 Ks.

  • Kershaw now qualifies for the ERA title, and vaults straight to the MLB lead at 1.78, a tick below Adam Wainwright. It would be his record fourth straight MLB crown; only Greg Maddux (1993-95) and Lefty Grove (1929-31) notched three in a row.
  • It had been more than two years since Kershaw served a two-out tater, and 20 starts since any two-out run this late in a game.
  • Headley has a 4-game hit streak against Kershaw — 4-15, with a “cycle” and two walks (11-51 career). One other career cycle off Kershaw, by Jimmy Rollins (7-35).
  • Odrisamer Despaigne took his first loss, yielding two runs for the first time in four starts, with 7 Ks to best his prior total. He is the 11th since 1991 to start a career with four straight games of 6+ IP allowing 2 runs or less; only Jered Weaver made it to five or more.

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Athletics 6, @Giants 1 — A cycle in a span of five A’s batters put this one out of reach. John Jaso’s two-out triple in the 5th set up Stephen Vogt’s single for a 2-0 lead. Tim Hudson made the last out in the home half, with the tying runs in scoring position, then served up four straight extra-baggers, including Josh Donaldson’s 20th home run. Vogt capped off the 4-run burst with another two-out knock.

  • Oakland’s blowout pace has slowed a bit, but they’re still on track to finish in the all-time top 40 in both wins and W% in games decided by 5 runs or more.
  • Vogt’s .367 BA would be the highest ever for Oakland with 90+ at-bats. The current mark of .350 was set by Catfish Hunter in 1971 (36-103).
  • Sixth straight home series lost by San Fran.

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@Red Sox 4, White Sox 3 (10 inn.) — Three hits all day for Boston, their AL-high 8th such game already — but all came in two scoring frames set up by leadoff walks.

  • It took Conor Gillaspie 60 games to hit his first home run this year, and now he’s gone deep in three straight, this one a stunner off Koji Uehara.

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Wednesday, July 9

@Tigers 4, Dodgers 1 — Max Scherzer’s last six include five gems totaling 5 runs in 37 IP … and a 10 runs/4 IP disaster, leaving his ERA right back where it started.

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@Angels 8, Blue Jays 7 — Don’t know why Kole Calhoun keeps surprising me. Now in his 5th pro season, he’s hit very well every year — career .320/.403/.545 in the minors (not in hitter’s havens), so his 131 OPS+ in the bigs was entirely predictable. Maybe ’cause he’s only 5′ 10″, I mix him up with Collin Cowgill. Anyway, Calhoun’s killing it from the leadoff spot this year — .321/.973, with 41 runs in 41 games, 1st in SLG and 2nd in OBP among leadoff regulars.

  • C.J. Wilson was roughed up for the fourth straight time — totaling just 16.2 IP with a 10.26 ERA — but the Angels have won three of the four, scoring 27 runs.
  • Don’t look now, but the Angels’ hot hitting has even unfrozen David Freese — 10 RBI and a 1.367 OPS in his last 10 games.
  • No. 512 for Albert tied him for 21st on the career list; Eddie Mathews and Ernie Banks ranked 6th and 8th when they hung up the spikes. Nine more clouts to the trifecta at #18 — Ted Williams, Frank Thomas and Willie McCovey all hit 521 HRs. (Ted ranked 3rd when he bowed out on a high note, just 13 HRs behind Foxx. But it was never his dream to hear folks say, “There goes the second-greatest slugger who ever lived.”)

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@Red Sox 5, White Sox 4 — Chris Sale left the game with a 4-0 lead and four outs for the bullpen to get. Not even close. Three scored straight away, and Javy Guerra had to rescue Jake Petricka with the tying and lead runs in scoring position. In the 9th, Guerra plunked Mookie Betts on a 1-2 count. Then Daniel Nava stepped up for the brand-new starting catcher Christian Vazquez (0-3 debut) and delivered a tying double, followed by Brock Holt’s first game-winner.

  • To say the ChiSox are 37-6 when leading after 8 innings doesn’t quite capture their late-inning funk. How about … four more such losses than (a) the average of other AL teams, and (b) if CHW had the same conversion rate as the rest of the AL. Just one other AL team has even four such losses.
  • What’s more exciting than an infield double? And that leadoff dash in the 8th by Betts, risky as it was, may have been a game-changer, removing the force play in front of two straight groundouts. Should 2B Gordon Beckham have stayed at home when his shortstop ranged far to his right, instead of sliding left to back up the play at first? (Aside: The explosion in infield shifts, though not involved here, has given added weight to secondary infield responsibilities, and created more chances for plays like this.)
  • Nava’s hitting .226 this year, but 12-33 with a man on first base only.
  • For 2012-14, most AL starts with 7+ IP, one run or less, and no win: 14–Felix Hernandez (SEA); 8–Jose Quintana (CHW); 7–Chris Sale (CHW).
  • Hmm, should Sale be an All-Star? If the AL wants to win, I guess.

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Nationals 6, @Orioles 2 — While Doug Fister sat out the first month, it was easy for a Tigers fan to overlook Dave Dombrowski’s most puzzling trade. But Fister’s 12-game record of 8-2, 2.90 looks as good as anything in Detroit’s rotation.

  • Despite a potent infield, the Nats are just average in the NL homer ranks. Fifty-two of their 77 HRs have come from the four infield spots, just 13 from the outfield.
  • I know we’ve moved way past Jayson Werth’s contract, but … I notice that he’s been removed from 30 games between last year and this, mainly for late-inning defense — a concession to what dWAR has said for years. Still 3 years left at $21 mil apiece, for a guy who’ll be 36-38 and has never started a game at an infield position. One might think a transition to 1B, but there’s already a logjam there, with Ryan Zimmerman no longer able to play his natural spot, but locked in for five more years.
  • O’s against their Beltway foes, through 2013: 251-146 overall, a .632 W%; 89-65 vs. Senators I (1954-60); 135-61 vs. Senators II (1961-71); 27-20 vs. Nationals (2005-13). Each opponent won just one season series from the Birds.

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Royals 5, @Rays 4 — Kirby Yates had done well to date, but even Cinderella had growing pains. His first save will have to wait. I’d comment on this game’s impact, but David Schoenfield beat me to it, once more.

  • Kevin Kiermaier’s first official at-bat with the sacks full was a smash — two out, two strikes, wiping out Yordano Ventura’s 2-0 lead (with the help of two walks).
  • Splitting Ventura’s 20 career starts on the basis of walk rate:
    2.85 ERA in 12 starts with no more than one walk per 3 innings (1.4 W/9 total);
    4.14 ERA in 8 starts with more than one walk per 3 innings (5.4 W/9).
    His HR and K rates are about the same either way. Free runners hurt.

__________

@Mets 4, Bravos 1 — Dillon Gee’s first game in two months had a pre-set 90-pitch cap, and began with a 10-pitch walk. But he kept throwing quality strikes to an attacking lineup, and got through the 7th with just 69 more tosses. Tied at one in the home half, New York cashed David Wright’s leadoff hustle double with two liners to right: Jason Heyward corraled both, but each earned a bag, and then a suddenly dangerous Travis d’Arnaud quick-stroked a hanger to cap the winning push. And when Tommy La Stella struck out with two on, the Mets had their first 4-win streak in just under a year.

  • The big inning was set up by Wright deking B.J. Upton into stopping his throw, just as Andrelton Simmons did to Juan Lagares the night before. I’ve seen all these teams’ games this year, and my eyes endorse both Upton’s bad dWAR in center (here’s a bad beat from Tuesday) and Heyward’s great range both ways in right. Their present alignment is puzzling.
  • Gee’s last 31 starts: 2.67 ERA in 209 IP, 3.1 K/W, three unearned runs.
  • Bobby Abreu, fearless at the wall. (Wait, who?)

__________

New York 5, @Cleveland 4 (13 inn.) — Extra innings, two out, bases empty and 0-2 count: First go-ahead homer since 2005; fifth one in the pitch-count era (mainly since 1988).

  • The long season has so many twists and turns. Think back to the day Brian Cashman signed Masahiro Tanaka, to fill out a rotation with CC Sabathia (14 wins, 211 IP last year), Hiroki Kuroda (3.31 ERA), Ivan Nova (3.10), and the returning Michael Pineda, with David Phelps and Vidal Nuno for depth. Now imagine telling Cashman that day: Come July, your season will hang by Tanaka’s elbow ligament.
  • 1908, 1966, and 1988-90: Years that no qualified Yankee had an ERA+ of at least 100. Tanaka’s the only one this year. Of those five teams, three finished last in their league, and two were 5th in their division.
  • David Huff walked all three men he faced in the 10th, but was bailed out by Shawn Kelley. It’s been six years since the last outing of three or more walks, no outs recorded and no runs charged to or let in by that pitcher. (And you don’t want to be linked with Jack Taschner.)

__________

@Diamondbacks 4, Marlins 3 — The baseball gods help those who don’t walk Ender Inciarte on four pitches when there are real hitters behind him, but Steve Cishek didn’t qualify for aid.

__________

@Giants 5, Athletics 2

  • Hunter Pence may look like he’s playing through a torn rotator cuff, but he’s one of the most durable players — 3rd in total games since 2008, 2nd in games started. And now he’s chasing career highs in WAR and OPS+.

__________

Twins 8, @Mariners 1 — With seven scoreless starts, Kyle Gibson continues to hold an odd position among those leaders:

  • 9, Adam Wainwright (1.79 season ERA)
  • 7, Josh Beckett (2.26) and Kyle Gibson (3.92)
  • 6, Clayton Kershaw (1.85), Henderson Alvarez (2.27) and Yu Darvish (2.97)

Gibson also has four disaster starts (more runs than innings). No one else has at least four of each.

____________________

Tuesday, July 8

Twins 2, @Seattle 0 —  Phil Hughes has four starts this year with 7+ scoreless innings and at least one hit per inning. Believe it or not, no one else since at least 1914 has done that four times in a year, and just three have done it three times — Rick Reuschel in 1973, Jim Kaat ’71, and Big Bill Lee ’38. All four by Hughes featured no walks; no one else has more than two with that factor added. He’s has won three of those games with the Twins scoring just two runs.

More Hughesiana:

  • Has yielded at least a hit per inning in 14 of 18 starts, but in those games, has a K/W ratio of 79/8 and just 8 HRs allowed.
  • Leads all qualifiers with a 9.27 K/W ratio. Kershaw’s at 9.58, but just short of qualifying; ditto Hisashi Iwakuma at 9.00.
  • Has walked none in 10 of 18 starts. Since 1923, only Bob Tewksbury and Greg Maddux have topped 19 walk-free starts in a season.
  • Number one with a bullet in strike percentage (72.5%, no other at 70+) and percentage of pitches swung at (57%, next is 52%, qualified median is 46%). Also leads in swung-at strike percentage and foul strike percentage; trails only Kershaw and Sale in percentage of 0-2 counts (35%, median 24%).
  • Has issued two 4-pitch walks, one intentional. (Three qualifiers have no 4-pitch walks: Tim Hudson, Jordan Zimmerman and Drew Hutchison.)
  • His ERA is 3.70, but FIP is 2.68 — 4th among qualifiers, and the biggest percentage excess of ERA/FIP.

__________

@Tigers 14, Dodgers 5 — Justin Verlander’s curves came in flat, then went out flatter. Seven batters in, LA had four loud hits and five runs, their biggest opening of the last three years. The Tigers were silent in their half; Victor Martinez was out again, and it looked like a long night ahead. But you can’t predict baseball: Eight hits in the 2nd tied the game, and six more built an 11-5 bulge by the 4th, all while Verlander retired 13 in a row.

It was the death of a thousand cuts for Hyun-jin Ryu (career high 7 ER) and his followers. No one left the yard, but the lineup turned over, and over, and over again, as the Tigers went 12 for 17 with men in scoring position, and scored all 14 runs on separate plays. Austin Jackson and Ian Kinsler batted in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th innings. Three knocks and a triple apiece for Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez, batting #3-4, while nos. 5-6 Torii Hunter and Nick Castellanos had matching treys with a double. They tied the MLB season high of 20 hits without a homer; the only team with more in the last two years was the Tigers themselves, with 26 hits in Kansas City last September.

  • How does Miggy get a triple? It helps when Yasiel Puig chucks it all the way from deepest right-center. No Cespedes, he. (Best part of the clip starts at 0:20 — Puig’s “who, me?” reaction, perhaps, to a look from either of the cutoff men he eschewed.)
  • Some splits are misleading. Detroit came in 18-9 facing a lefty starter. But they’ve scored a bit more against righties, 4.7 to 4.4 R/G, and their overall BA and OBP are very close against both slants. Then again … 19-9.

__________

@Cardinals 5, Pirates 4 — The last team with walk-off home runs on consecutive days was Arizona, last August 12-13. For the Cards, the archive shows just one other pair on consecutive days (since 1942) — they just happen to be the club’s last-but-one game-ending blasts before this week: The majestic Albert, on June 5-6, 2011.

  • It hasn’t been all sunshine since Kolten Wong returned from his triple-A tuneup. But after 2 extra-base hits in his first 71 ABs (.268 SLG), he has 9 XBH and 3 HRs in 97 ABs (.412 SLG). Anyway, nothing wrong with this swing.
  • In 10.2 IP since June 1, Ernesto Frieri has yielded 17 runs on 23 hits — including a walk-off slam when he inherited three runners and a 3-1 lead. For the year, 9 HRs out of 149 batters faced, equivalent to 36 HRs for a batter’s full season. And they say power’s in short supply.
  • Still, remember how small these reliever samples are. Frieri’s 34 IP with a 7.48 ERA this year add up to one bad month for a starter … this chap, for instance. Ernesto might yet get right this very season.

__________

Marlins 2, @Diamondbacks 1 — Of course, for sheer volume of game-changing homers allowed, even Frieri must bow down to Addison Reed, who has served 14 lead-changers in the 9th or later since 2012. Nine of those came with two out, four more than #2 Frieri. Of the 19 closers with 50+ saves since 2012, Reed ranks dead last in Win Probability Added. One of these days, some free-thinking skipper might just ask himself if this lad is quite ready for closing, at this point in his career. Maybe some GM will even wonder if 43 innings in one year at the top farm levels was enough seasoning.

  • Sad but ironic that Reed blew the win for Vidal Nuno, erstwhile taterista whose ‘Zona debut was his best game to date.
  • For the Marlins, their first behind-to-ahead blast in the 9th or later since 2011.
  • For all teams, the first such blow since 2004 when the team was one strike away from a 1-0 ending.

__________

@Cleveland 5, Yankees 3 — And the other shoe fell much louder than a mere lost ballgame.

__________

@Reds 4, Cubs 2 (day)Big bang by Jay Bruce, for the third straight game, all against southpaws.

@Reds 6, Cubs 5 (night) — Billy Hamilton capped a big day with his first walk-off hit, completing Cincy’s comeback via five straight scoring frames. Chicago staked Tsuyoshi Wada to a 5-0 lead in his MLB debut, and he gave them five innings on one unearned run. But their shaky bullpen will be taxed now that Samardzija and Hammel are gone. No Cubs starter has gone past the 6th inning this month

  • After nine years in Japan’s Pacific League, Wada signed a 2-year deal with the Orioles before 2012, but had T.J. surgery after one game at AAA, and was unimpressive last year. But he was among the PCL’s best this year.
  • Chris Coghlan’s going well: Homers in both halves today, after four hits on Monday. In his last dozen, Coghlan is 17 for 42 with 12 runs scored. It’s been a long road back for the 2009 Rookie of the Year, who spent as much time in the minors as in the bigs the past three years.

__________

Phillies 9, @Brewers 7 — Who would have guessed it, a week ago? The coming Cards-Brewers first-half finale could be the first time since April 8 that Milwaukee doesn’t hold first place alone — and the first time all year that St. Louis does.

  • Three of Milwaukee’s four bullpen lefties worked this game, but they’ve yet to use all four in one game. Since 1914, just 16 regulation games before September’s expanded rosters featured four lefty relievers for one team; the first group went up against Walter Johnson.

__________

Blue Jays 4, @Angels 0 — The Jays needed a stop and a spark, and their ex-Mets gave them both. R.A. Dickey pinned up seven zeroes, cooling the Halos from a 14-3 spurt scoring six a night. Jose Reyes had 4 hits and drove in the first three, including a breathing-room 2-run shot with two gone in the 7th.

  • Why pull Dickey after 96 pitches? Even on a good night, “third time through” was a struggle — 3 for 7 tonight (with a big Melky recovery that kept Mike Trout from tripling), and a season .968 OPS that’s 2nd-worst among regulars.
  • Reyes has 28 four-hit games, ranking 5th since 2004 (Ichiro, Albert & Miggy, and Crawford).
  • The Angels have been blanked just twice, fewest of all teams.

__________

@Rockies 2, Padres 1 — LaTroy Hawkins has cashed 29 of 31 save tries since donning the closer’s mantle last August, despite just 33 Ks in 55 IP. Nine walks and 3 HRs are part of the story.

__________

@Mets 8, Bravos 3 — Seven scoreless with 11 Ks for Jacob deGrom — the first 10-K scoreless game by a Met since Matt Harvey, last July. The most recent Mets with such a game within their first 15 outings were Harvey, Gooden, Ryan and Koosman; only Dennis Ribant did that with no walks.

  • By the 3rd inning, every Met had a hit off Julio Teheran. Of course, I wondered if that made Mets history, and Elias came through: First such game by the Mets against one pitcher. Teheran matched his shortest start (3.1 IP), with a career-high 11 hits.
  • Early on, deGrom muscled up when he had to. The leadoff man reached in the 1st and 2nd, but he fanned five in those frames, three with a man on third. Atlanta missed a lot, obviously, but they had 7 hits off him, plus a few loud outs.
  • Lucas Duda’s last 40 games: .291 BA, .409 OBP, 1.008 OPS, 25 walks against 29 Ks.
  • Curtis Granderson had started hitting before he moved to the leadoff spot, but he has 5 HRs in 14 games there (three in his first AB), with OPS over .950.

__________

@Athletics 6, Giants 1 — Oakland made it six in a row since Detroit swept ’em, allowing five runs while holding off the Angels’ charge. Sonny Gray kicked off the rotation’s revival, and he kept the metronome going: Their last six starts were all one run in 7 IP or no runs in 6 IP.

  • The only blue in San Fran skies is the Dodgers’ own bumps, 3-4 since first grabbing the lead.

__________

Astros 8, @Rangers 3

Batting #8-9 for the Rangers, Jake Smolinski and Rougned Odor. Congrats to Jake on his first hits & RBI.

  • Ample Altuve action on the basepaths, not all of it good. Still hasn’t been caught stealing in his last 28 tries.
  • I’m trying to recall a true slugger who stood as straight-up at the plate as George Springer. Does Brady Anderson count? Anyone else?
  • In Chris Carter’s 70 games since April 9, he’s held a postgame season BA of exactly .200 three times, but never above. Best part of this Carter clip is seeing the 6′ 4″ swatter back-slapped by the the 5′ 6″ skeeter.
  • Shouldn’t Chad Qualls be an Angel or Tiger by now?
  • At 35, Adrian Beltre is closing in on Gary Gaetti for #3 in career games at third. Graig Nettles (#2) played 751 games at the hot corner from age 36 onward, 31% of his career total.

____________________

Monday, July 7

@Cardinals 2, Pirates 0 —

I don’t get this move: Tony Watson threw five pitches for three outs in the 8th. His spot didn’t come to bat, and the home 9th had two lefties among the first three. But Clint Hurdle brought in his other lefty, Justin Wilson. The first two hitters were Matt Carpenter (1 for 10 off Watson, 2 for 9 off Wilson) and Matt Holliday (Watson 1 for 8, Wilson 4 for 9).

  • Seven hard-earned scoreless innings shaved Adam Wainwright’s MLB-best ERA to 1.79. Two games this year totaled 13 runs in 9.1 IP. The other 16 starts: 13 runs in 121.2 IP. Nine scoreless games of 7+ IP, three more than #2 Yu Darvish; the last with more than nine was Cliff Lee’s 11 in 2011.
  • Whether or not he deserves his All-Star nod, I love Josh Harrison.

__________

Orioles 8, @Nationals 2 (11 inn.) — Another regulation oh-fer had crashed Chris Davis through the Mendoza Line on a 4-for-44 rocket to ruin. But bonus ball brought a fifth try, after Nelson Cruz kicked off the 11th with his third hit, and Davis seized it with both fists — the first of three Birds who took flight in that frame.

  • First Beltway Series for Cruz, and yes, he belted one. But Stephen Strasburg retired 11 of the next 12 thereafter, and Anthony Rendon got ’em back in the 6th.
  • Strasburg has faced the O’s just once before. Feels like a long time since his 2010 debut, but this was just his 94th outing, what with the T.J., and Operation Shutdown. He’s on track to reach both 200 IP and 200 Ks for the first time.

__________

@Athletics 5, Giants 0 — Just when SF fans thought it was safe to start watching their offense again, up springs their fifth shutout in the last 14 games, three with nary an extra-base hit. Eleven straight games with 9 hits or less ties the team’s high since 1994.

__________

@Phillies, Brewers

Jean Segura leads the majors with an 82% rate of bases taken as a runner, including going first-to-third on 7 of 10 singles. But he made a costly first out in the 5th, trying for third as the tying run, top of the order coming up. And they never did get that run,

__________

@New York 4, Atlanta 3 (11 inn.) —

The home 9th raised a big gray area in the rule making the “neighborhood play” not reviewable: Does it apply to bunts? If not, why not? I hate the neighborhood play — partly because I think umps use it as an excuse not to call interference on take-out slides — but a rule’s a rule, so I think Atlanta got screwed. The throw didn’t pull Simmons off the bag, and it was a legitimate DP attempt. If any such play is exempt from review, that one should be, too.

Mike Minor’s best game in a month ended on a high note — 13 straight Mets retired after David Wright homered in the 3rd, and a go-ahead 3-run rally with two out in the 8th. But neither Minor’s effort nor a year’s-best seven scoreless from Dice-K would be rewarded.

No Craig Kimbrel? Not even when the winning run reached second base with one out in the 11th? Workload’s no factor; he’s pitched just twice this month.

Luis Avilan has allowed just 4 HRs in 130 career innings, but three to lefties. They haven’t done much else against him: .181 BA, .482 OPS.

I dubbed him Three-Hit Freeman. Against the Mets, it always fits.

Last July 4th was the Mets’ last come-from-behind home run with two out in the 8th or later. But even that dramatic blow in the 13th, and another tying blast in the 14th, couldn’t bring it home.

__________

@Reds 9, Cubs 3 —

The first of Jay Bruce’s 173 career HRs that didn’t come as an outfielder. He’d never played another position until tonight’s debut at 1B, and while he’s 9 for 22 as a pinch-hitter, none left the yard.

In the 1st, Billy Hamilton drew a four-pitch walk from Edwin Jackson, went first-to-third on a single to left, and scored on a sac fly. He’s scored after all five 1st-inning walks this year, four times without a hit involved. (Steal & two wild pitches; steal, wild pitch & sac fly; two steals & groundout; steal, groundout & sac fly.) Billy didn’t attempt a steal in his last four games.

__________

New York 5, @Cleveland 3 — Shane Greene won his first start with six stanzas of two-run ball, no walks. He was nearly perfect until Nick Swisher homered with two down in the 5th. The only other runner up to then was hit by a pitch, and promptly caught stealing. After a two-out hit made it 5-2 in the 6th, the skipper let Greene face Michael Brantley (infield single) and then Carlos Santana, as the tying run. Got him on a full-count flyout.

Yan Gomes, in just over 600 PAs since 2013: 22 HRs, 30 doubles, 123 OPS+, and 6.4 WAR.

Greene’s first start began much better than his one prior outing: 3 walks, 3 unearned runs, one batter retired. Just one other no-hit debut with at least 3 unearned runs: Clay Roe, starting for the Senators late in 1923, walked six of 12 batters, and never got back on the hill. Best part of that box score is Roy Meeker’s CG win, on 15 hits, 6 walks and 8 runs.

And so, Jim Bouton remains the last Yankee with a first start of at least 6 scoreless innings, a 1962 shutout after one relief outing. Bouton skated through trouble in the top of the 1st, then Maris & Mantle went back-to-back, and Mickey turned around and slugged another in the 7th. Bouton walked seven (appropriately enough), but Bobby Richardson turned three DPs, and Elston Howard caught a base thief. Nothing like having powerful friends.

The Yanks are really reaching for starters. Greene’s in his 6th pro season and just reached AAA this year, posting a 4.61 ERA there, 4.39 in his minor-league career.

__________

Royals 6, @Rays 0 — James Shields mustered his biggest game since May — 10 Ks, 3 hits in seven — to beat his ex-mates for the second time in as many tries.

__________

White Sox 4, @Red Sox — Scott Carroll’s first scoreless start: one single, two walks in 6.2 innings. Chicago’s last four starters have yielded one run over 30 IP, that one by Chris Sale in the 9th.

  • Boston’s second home shutout loss in eight days with two singles. Just 38 others since 1914 with R=0, XBH=0 and H<=2.
  • Clay Buchholz is the 316th pitcher to serve one up to Adam Dunn, who has exactly one HR against 230 of them.

____________________

Sunday, July 6

@Reds 4, Brewers 2 — Mired in an 0-for-26 skid, the last thing Jay Bruce needed in a crucial at-bat was to face a southpaw who’d held lefties to 8 for 56, all singles. But that’s who he got. The tie-breaking blow was just reward for Mat Latos, who absorbed a 1-0, one-hit loss in his prior start, and brought a two-hitter to the 8th on Sunday, only to yield the equalizer on a Rickie Weeks two-out pinch-hit.

  • I can’t remember seeing this call made. (Neither can Tony Tarrasco.) Looks like the proper ruling, but it’s too bad Logan Schafer got a pass for just holding the ball, as if he were the interfering spectator, while Ramon Santiago circled the bases.
  • Schafer’s day had its ups and downs, but he did more than his fair share from the #8 spot in the order, leading the comeback with two extra-baggers and scoring both Milwaukee runs. Those batting 1st through 7th were held to a single and a walk in 25 trips.
  • Jonathan Broxton saved it with three groundouts, including a nice play by Zack Cozart. Broxton’s yielded just 10 hits in 28 IP, despite one of the league’s lowest strikeout rates (5.8 K/9). But he’s not the only Reds hurler with a minuscule BAbip (.141); starters Latos, Johnny Cueto and Alfredo Simon are all at .235 and below, and the team’s .276 BAbip is lowest in the league. As you might guess, the Reds rank #1 in NL defense by all standard measures, even good ol’ fielding percentage.
  • When a team allows four hits with just 3 Ks, you can bet there was more than one leather-clad highlight. Does anyone have more fun afield than Brandon Phillips? And here, Billy Hamilton reminds us that he used to be a shortstop: Backhand pickup, deep in the hole, the long throw … got him!

__________

Orioles 7, @Red Sox 6 (12 inn.) — I believe this is the first time that Steve Pearce started at first base against a RHP when Chris Davis was healthy. I know I’m harping on a mere sidebar to the real Baltimore story — their first July division lead since 1997. But imagine if Roger Maris in 1962 had begun to lose playing time to a 31-year-old journeyman — one who had never come to bat 200 times in a season, who’d been released during the season. Anyway….

With a chance to gain ground on the first-place O’s, in their final meeting before September, Boston scored five in the 7th to tie, and had the winning run on base for Big Papi with one out in the 9th. Then Dustin Pedroia slid too soon and was out stealing. In the 12th, now trailing, Ortiz slashed one to the left-field corner, but David Lough cut him down easily at second.

With their subsequent fall to last place, it’s tempting to read this game’s emotional narrative as Boston’s death knell. In truth, the champs are d-o-n-e for reasons far more mundane: The predictable decline of older players, and the youngsters’ failure to step up. While the Yankees get the most attention for their aged roster, the Red Sox are roughly the same: Weighted by playing time, Boston’s pitchers are the AL’s oldest (31.2 years), and their position players are 2nd-oldest (30.3, to New York’s 32.9).

  • This was the 80th game this year that went at least 11 innings. That season pace of 147 would be the most in at least 100 years, although that’s not adjusting for expansion.

__________

Marlins 8, @Cardinals 4 —

One of baseball’s enduring quirks: SP Marco Gonzalez allows one run in 4.2 IP and “loses,” while his relief lets in 7 runs over 4.1 IP and is officially blameless. Just one other SP has lost this year yielding one run while his mates served up five or more.

__________

Rays 7, @Tigers 3 — Okay, Tampa’s 10-2 surge has brought them to 41-50, and out of last place. I want to think Joe Maddon still has a chance, but it’s a tough sell. In the wild-card era, no playoff team was worse than 44-47 at this point. In the last 100 years, four teams made the playoffs from 43-48 or worse, but the 1981 Royals don’t count, due to the split-season format. So, it’s really three teams, each in the same scenario — lousy division:

  1. The 1973 Mets went from 40-51 to 82-79 — a 42-28 stretch (.600), but still tied for the fewest wins by any full-season playoff team. Not coincidentally, this case is the gold standard both for divisional parity (11.5 games separated 1st from 6th) and for waiting until the last possible moment to engage the race. From 40-51, the Mets slid slightly to 58-70 on August 26 — last place, 6.5 GB — before a 24-9 kick that clinched the crown without even making up one rain-out.
  2. The 1984 Royals were also 40-51 — 6th place, 8 games behind the Angels — and finished at 84-78, the third-worst W% by any playoff team, and one of the few who were outscored on the season. Four AL East “also-rans” had a better record than the Royals.
  3. The 1974 Pirates went from 42-49 to 88-74. That 42-49 mark was in the midst of an 8-game winning streak leading into the All-Star break. Reprising the division’s mediocrity of the year before, Philadelphia’s 49-46 record led at the break, with all five others at least three games under .500. Pittsburgh was 45-49 at the break, but had the best run differential, and their talent proved out in the second half.

Even the Miracle Braves of 1914 and last year’s Dodgers were well into their surge by this point, both 46-45.

Tampa is 8.5 games behind both Baltimore and Seattle (second wild card). They have seven games left with the O’s, none with the M’s. They have three left with the Angels, whom they trail by 12 games for the first wild card. Five other wild-card wannabes are ahead of Tampa.

__________

Giants 5, @Padres 3 —

Tim Lincecum was shooting for his first 3-game scoreless streak, but Brooks Conrad homered in the 7th.

__________

Arizona 3, @Atlanta 1 — “It worked! Hahahahaha! And they laughed at me back at university!”

(Aww, nuts — I should’ve saved the hex for their Mets series! And it almost cost me.)

__________

Random stuff:

Another first-pitch home run for J.D. Martinez, now 15 for 28 with 6 HRs, 7 doubles. This year, only Nelson Cruz has more home runs (8), and only Miguel Cabrera more extra-base hits (14), each in twice as many ABs as Martinez.

____________________

Saturday, July 5

@Angels 11, Astros 5 — Michael Roth made his season debut with two clean innings when the Halos trailed 5-2, then got to watch the power show that rang up eight runs in the 7th and made Roth the winner.

  • Stupid stat: First team inning this year with two 2-out, multi-run HRs in the 7th or later. Second team inning with three multi-run HRs in the 6th or later.

__________

Best marks since 2013 by position players who debuted that year (400+ PAs combined):

Random aside on Jeff Baker’s game-winning pinch-hit Saturday — his career splits vs. LHP, by situation:

  • Bases empty (495 PAs) — .318 BA, .522 SLG, .894 OPS
  • With RISP (250 PAs) — .242 BA, .419 SLG, .727 OPS

 

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Doug
Doug
9 years ago

Top random overachiever? Lonnie Chisenhall has come back down to earth (as he had to), but his first half is still well above what might have been expected.

Not “random” but still overachieving is Johnny Cueto who has just kept rolling along, with WHIP below 0.9 and H/9 under 6. Only 18 others have done that in a first half of 100 IP since 1914. Only Justin Duchscherer (2008) and Pedro Martinez (2005) in the last 10 years. Nobody did it between Gaylord Perry (1974) and Pedro (2000).

Doug
Doug
9 years ago

Worst ball/strike call of the first half? How about this one to end the game with the tying run on 3rd base.

http://m.mlb.com/video/v34507675/oaksea-rodney-fans-punto-earns-the-save/?c_id=mlb

mosc
mosc
9 years ago
Reply to  Doug

If punto wasn’t so small, that’d be a textbook strike. Far from the worst strike call of the year IMHO.

Doug
Editor
9 years ago
Reply to  mosc

Good point, mosc.

Punto doesn’t actually start his crouch until the pitch is delivered. Freezing the playback with the ball in mid-air, he’s started to go into his crouch but, even then, the ball looks just a bit higher then his belt (maybe bottom of the rib cage).

When I saw the play live, it sure seemed like the pitch was high and possibly inside, but that was assuming Punto’s stance was what it was when he backed off the pitch. From Punto’s stance when the pitcher started his delivery, looks like the pitch was a high strike.

mosc
mosc
9 years ago
Reply to  Doug

I mean it’s probably high I agree, I just don’t think it’s an out of the ordinary call except that it ends the game. Rodney has a big fastball and likes that high 4 seamer paired with the diving split change against off handed bats. It has quite a bit of rise on it. Pitch FX quotes it at 9.4 z movement average this year which is pretty crazy. The ball doesn’t have an arc guys are used to seeing, particularly at a higher site line. Even umpires are going to get fooled that the ball didn’t dive as much… Read more »

mosc
mosc
9 years ago
Reply to  mosc

I can’t find an active leader in things like fastball Z movement but I looked up the best one I could think of which was Linsecum when he still had velocity. The years he won Cy Youngs his movement was +10.8. David Robertson is another guy who’s 4 seamer seems to defy physics, pitch FX has him at +10.0. You wonder why he doesn’t throw that more than his cutter anymore. The last time he favored the 4 seamer over the cutter was 2011… when he had a 1.08 ERA over 66.2 IP and got Cy Young votes.

David P
David P
9 years ago

Garrett Richards has an outside chance to be the first pitcher since Red Ames in 1904 to have 30+ wild pitches in a season (he currently has 17).

Only pitchers with a 25+ Wild Pitch season in the BR database:

AJ Burnett (25 in 2011)
Jose Guzman (26 in 1993)
Larry Cheney (26 in 1914)
Tony Cloninger (27 in 1996)
Red Ames (30 in 1904)

Interestingly, those 5 pitchers went a combined 81-51 despite having modest ERA+ (ranging from 83-109). Talk about being wildly effective!

Doug
Editor
9 years ago
Reply to  David P

Richards’ 17 WP are the most in a first half since Larry Cheney’s 20 in 1914.

Paul E
Paul E
9 years ago

Pearce versus JD Martinez? Both had an OPS+ of 88 prior to this season; however, I’ll go with the 31 year old Pearce as having a longer established track record of mediocrity than the 26 year old Martinez.

mosc
mosc
9 years ago
Reply to  Paul E

JD Martinez crushed in the minors relative for his age every time he’s been down there and has the look of a prospect that was rushed along more than a guy who never panned out. He’s a classic “why you don’t move guys from AA to the majors” case. I think he’ll be a league average outfielder going forward.

Artie Z
Artie Z
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I don’t think the power output is too unexpected. He did hit 40 doubles and 18 HRs in the minors in 2010 (in 600 PAs), and 25 doubles and 13 HRs in 370 PAs in 2011. He only had 3 doubles in the minors this season, compared to the 10 HRs.

Ken
Ken
9 years ago

The Astros made 44 errors at the shortstop position in 2013. That was the most since the Pirates made 45 in 1998, and the most in the AL since Oakland made 46 in 1984. At the current pace, they will make only 24 this year. Oddly enough, all eleven instances of 40 or more errors at that position from 1986-2012 occurred in the NL. (I hope these numbers are correct, did the research by eyeballing the yearly stats in Retrosheet).

RJ
RJ
9 years ago
Reply to  Ken

That’s all correct Ken. In the same spirit, here are the teams since 1955 committing 50 or more errors at shortstop: – 1961 Cardinals (53): A real team effort, with five players making at least 8 errors at short. – 1965 Cubs (50): A young Don Kessinger taking the blame. He didn’t get better. – 1968 Twins (51): All-singing, all-dancing Cesar Tovar spent most of his time elsewhere. – 1973 Cardinals (51): Mike Tyson with 33 errors, 30 the next year, and moved to second in short order. – 1975 Angels (51): Shared culpability. – 1975 Brewers (50): A 19-year-old… Read more »

Doug
Editor
9 years ago
Reply to  RJ

Amazing.

A worst defensive team statistic that doesn’t include the 1974 Cubs with their 199 errors. Their shortstop was Don Kessinger who appeared regularly on the most errors list, including in 1974 when his 32 errors were the second highest total for any player.

bstar
9 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Here are the Rfield numbers for some ’74 Cubs regulars: Rick Monday, -27 in CF Jerry Morales, -22 in LF Don Kessinger, -15 at SS Bill Madlock, -10 at 3B Billy Williams, -9 at 1B etc. Even the bench was awful. In only 56 games, second baseman Vic Harris at -16, utility guys Dave Rosello at -13 in only 59 games and Ron Dunn at -7…in only 159 innings! Totaled up, the ’74 Cubs were -139 in fielding runs. Is that the record? I honestly don’t know, but it’s just one more reason why we have trouble wrapping our heads… Read more »

bstar
9 years ago
Reply to  bstar

I found the ’77 Braves with a team Rfield of -138, one run “less worse” than the ’74 Cubs.

Does anyone know how to use the P-I to search for team fielding numbers?

Artie Z
Artie Z
9 years ago
Reply to  bstar

bstar – I can’t find any way to search for team fielding. I thought I might be able to do a backdoor search by looking for RA9def for pitchers, but I don’t see that as a search parameter either. The “best” I can see to do is a search for “teams with players matching criteria” and then hand check those teams. The only other teams I’ve found with -130 or worse Rfield is the 1993 Padres and 1997 Padres, with exactly -130. The problem with that method is that sometimes teams with a lot of bad fielders will have a… Read more »

bstar
9 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Artie and JA: I knew the ’77 Braves from countless looks at Phil Niekro’s RA9def marks in the ’70s. They’re almost as bad as Reuschel’s as a Cub. Look at what that awful defense (and rarely pitching with the lead) does to their career WPA: PNiekro, 97 WAR in 5400 IP: 14 career WPA W Spahn, 92 WAR in 5200 IP: 55 career WPA Reuschel, 68 WAR in 3500 IP: 15 career WPA J Palmer, 68 WAR in 3900 IP: 44 career WPA Here, WPA is telling us much more about pitchers’ context than performance. And, yes, I would take… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
9 years ago
Reply to  bstar

@19: There is something you can do with the PI but it involves a lot of copying and pasting of PI result sheets into an Excel spreadsheet. To give you an idea consider this example: Go to PI Season Finders Player Batting Select Single Year Totals Select a time period, say 1950-1969 Select a Team, say the Red Sox Check non-pitcher (since the PI shows only 8 pitchers overall with a WAR Fielding value) Sort by WAR Runs Fielding Get Report There are 399 players listed spanning two result sheets. Copy those two sheets onto an Excel spreadsheet, sort by… Read more »

Ken
Ken
9 years ago
Reply to  RJ

Thanks for verifying my info BJ and for the interesting lists. I see the Ripken rubbed off on the other Orioles shortstops in 1990 as they played errorless ball, albeit in only 29 innings.

David P
David P
9 years ago
Reply to  Ken

Ken – If you had gone back one more year, you would have added the ’85 Indians who had 40 SS errors. And they had 39 the year before that. Much credit goes to Julio Franco who had 71 of those 79 errors.

RJ
RJ
9 years ago

Another thorough Game Notes, John! Piggybacking on some of your observations: -Here’s something unusual about Cano’s season: he’s killing it with RISP. He’s currently .368/.457/.697 in that split versus 286/.350/.472 for his career. Still struggling in Late & Close and Tie game splits though. (Cano’s career struggles in the clutch were bought to my attention by JA of course.) -Hunter Pence presently has 4.8 Runs from Baserunning. That’s fourth highest in the majors and more than, say, Dee Gordon. Anyone explain that? Pence (aka the anti-Puig) is 8-2 in SB-CS, is running a career high 57% XBT (which is good,… Read more »

bstar
9 years ago
Reply to  RJ

RJ, regarding Pence:

I see also that Pence has 20 extra bases taken (from wild pitched, passed balls, advancing on flies, etc.) while Dee Gordon only has 11.

Also, Gordon has already made 5 outs on the basepaths (non-CS outs) to only the 1 for Pence. Outs on bases are far more costly than an extra base is beneficial (looking at you, Master Puig).

If you want to find a guy who never stole many bags but accumulated a lot of baserunning runs, look no further than The Mick.

RJ
RJ
9 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Thanks for digging deeper bstar. Obviously I know that outs on bases are bad and extra bases taken are good, but I guess I find it difficult to know exactly how much value to place on those events.

BTW, since discovering him a couple of months ago, my favourite non-base stealing, high Rbaser player is Glenn Beckert.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beckegl01.shtml

Doug
Editor
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I suspect that BABIP will continue to rise as long as strikeouts do the same. Hitters, in the main, are still not cutting down their swings with two strikes with the result that they are more likely to either miss or hit the ball solidly, than to hit something weakly. The other factor assisting BABIP rates is declining walk rates. More balls in the strike zone combined with harder swings means better contact, when there is contact. The declining walk rates are, I suspect, in part due to the return of the high strike call, resulting from umpires calling rule… Read more »

Doug
Editor
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

BABIP is more volatile than K% but the two have been moving mostly in the same direction for the past 40 years or so.

RJ
RJ
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Jeff Sullivan over at Fangraphs wrote something on shifts and batting average on groundballs a month or so ago:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/grounders-in-the-age-of-the-shift/

I believe birtelcom made mention of it in a comment recently, although I can’t seem to locate it right now.