COG 1921 Results: Voters Give Warren Peace of Mind — Easy Win

After a number of closely contested voting rounds, this week voters strongly embraced Warren Spahn from the outset and put him on 54 ballots, the most for any candidate in a single round since Mantle and Mays in the 1931 voting. Spahn becomes the 62nd inductee in the High Heat Stats Circle of Greats. More on Warren and the voting, after the jump.

Through 60 rounds of voting, we had inducted only three left-handed pitchers: Steve Carlton, Tom Glavine and Randy Johnson. Now we’ve elected two in two rounds, Sandy Koufax and Spahn. In the world of traditional statistics, Warren Spahn is perhaps best known for having the most career Wins, by a wide margin, of any lefty pitcher in major league history.

Most Regular Season Wins By A Left-handed Pitcher
1. Warren Spahn 363
2. Steve Carlton 329
3. Eddie Plank 326
4. Tom Glavine 305
5. Randy Johnson 303

But forget the left-handed aspect for a moment, and consider who has the most regular seasons Wins over the last 100 seasons, among all pitchers, regardless of pitching hand:

1. Warren Spahn 363
2. Greg Maddux 355
3. Roger Clemens 354
4. Steve Carlton 329
T5. Nolan Ryan and Don Sutton 324

Using more sabermetrically sophisticated stats, Spahn’s numbers are not quite that dominant, but they are still extremely impressive. For example:

Most Pitching Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, baseball-reference version) in the Majors From 1930 Through 1980
1. Warren Spahn 92.6
2. Tom Seaver 89.0
3. Gaylord Perry 88.8
4. Robin Roberts 83.1
5. Phil Niekro 82.7

And to think Spahn didn’t generate his first positive WAR until his age 25 season:

Most Pitching WAR in NL History, Age 25 Season And After
1. Grover Cleveland Alexander 108.6
2. Warren Spahn 93.2
3. Greg Maddux 90.8
4. Phil Niekro 90.0
5. Cy Young 89.4

Spahn didn’t get into positive WAR territory until he was 25 because he spent his early twenties in the military during World War II, including action under fire in Europe. Many sources report that Spahn was awarded a Bronze Star for his service in battle. For example, both his write-up on the Hall of Fame web site and his obituary in the New York Times refer to his having received the Bronze Star. But Spahn filed, and won, a lawsuit, which at one point made it all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, in which Spahn argued among other things, that he had not been awarded a Bronze Star. The suit, which was brought against the author and publisher of “The Warren Spahn Story”, with Spahn claiming the book had exaggerated his wartime heroism, is to this day an important precedent for the principle that you can sue for the publication of false information that you find embarrassing even if that information actually puts you in a good light. The trial court judge in the case found that Spahn had not in fact been awarded the Bronze Star, and that “The Warren Spahn Story” had been incorrect when it claimed that he had. Odd then, how the Hall of Fame and the New York Times, among others (including the Army Corps of Engineers website), could get this wrong.

One more Warren Spahn oddity: Although Spahn led the NL eight times (!!) in Wins, not once did he lead his league in pitching WAR. He was second in the league four times: in 1947, he was second (by a tiny fraction) to Ewell Blackwell and in the three seasons from 1951 through 1953 he was second to Robin Roberts in pitching WAR each time.

Most Career Pitching WAR By a Pitcher With No Seasons Leading His League:
1. Warren Spahn 92.6
2. Eddie Plank 86.5
3. Nolan Ryan 83.8
4. Curt Schilling 80.7
5. Don Sutton 68.7

***************************************

Notes on the 1921 round:

–The large number of holdovers on this ballot, combined with several viable newcomers and the popular Spahn soaking up many votes, made for a highly contested, and fateful, election on the lower end of the ballot. Two holdovers on the bubble, Richie Ashburn and Larry Doby, fell below the 10% level of support and thus drop off the main ballot. One of the newcomers, Hal Newhouser, fell a single vote short of the 10% level, so Hal, like Ashburn and Doby, will now need to go the redemption round route to get back to the main balloting.

–Voters submitted exactly 70 ballots, so 7 votes was just enough to survive for guys on the bubble. Harmon Killebrew made it through to the next ballot with just that bare minimum. A single additional ballot cast, without Harmon’s name on it, would have sent Killebrew off with Ashburn and Doby. Craig Biggio also received 7 votes, which allowed him to barely retain all three of his current rounds of protected eligibility.

–In addition to Spahn, the 1921 birth year brought us Roy Campanella, who received solid support — appearing on 20% of the ballots, impressive given the crowded ballot and enough for the third most votes this round, behind Spahn and Willie McCovey. No one but Spahn reached the 25% support level this round, as votes on this big ballot were widely spread.

–All three of the guys who returned to the main ballot this round via last week’s Redemption Round, Roberto Alomar, Kevin Brown and Dennis Eckersley, garnered enough votes to hang on for at least another round. Brown and Eckersley each got more votes this round than had gotten in any round in their previous appearances on the main ballot. Eck was previously on for only two rounds, receiving 6 votes once and three the next — this time he got 8 votes. Brown previously had 5 votes and three votes, dropped off, was redeemed, got 9 votes, 7 votes and 7 votes and fell off again. This round he appeared on 12 ballots.

–While Doby and Ashburn now drop off, the addition of Campanella means we will only see a net reduction of one in our long holdover list, from 15 down to 14, for the next round — which may mean another tough battle for votes at the lower end in the upcoming round.

***************************************
The full spreadsheet showing this round’s vote tally is here: COG 1921 Vote Tally.

The vote summary for recent Circle of Greats voting rounds is here: COG Vote Summary 2 .  An archive with fuller details of the 1968 through 1939 rounds is here: COG 1968-1939 Vote Summary .  In both cases, raw vote totals for each past round appears on Sheet 1 and the percentage totals for each past round appears on Sheet 2.

***************************************
A spreadsheet listing the full membership to date of the Circle of Greats is here: Circle of Greats Membership . You can also now find that same link any time by clicking on “Circle of Greats” at the top of the High Heats Stats home page.

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David Horwich
David Horwich
9 years ago

Spahn’s 40-vote margin of victory was the 3rd largest to date; only Randy Johnson (+45 over Schilling) and Mike Schmidt (+42 over Smoltz) have exceeded it.

I’d say there’s a fair chance Musial will post a similarly large margin of victory this coming round…

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
9 years ago
Reply to  David Horwich

Musial realistically has a shot at a 50+ vote margin. He currently (57 ballots cast) has a 43-vote cushion over Willie McCovey, and he’s appeared on 95% of the ballots. Since we usually end up with about 70 votes, we’ll use 70 as an estimated total for this round, as well. If he were to continue at his current pace (unlikely, since late voters tend to be strategic voters, but bear with me) he’d end up at about 66/70. To get within 50, McCovey would need to appear on at least 6 of the final 13 – nearly 50% of… Read more »

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
9 years ago

Here are some thoughts about the CoG so far. First of all, this 1921 round was most similar to 1949.2 in terms of the lopsidedness of the vote. That was the Mike Schmidt election, and was (until 1921) the only election in which the runner-up failed to garner 25% of the vote (John Smoltz led all non-winners with 21%). That round featured 17 players receiving votes, while this one featured 18. 14 of the 17 managed 10%; in this election, we topped that significantly. Nonetheless, there was no other round that was particularly close to this one, other than that.… Read more »

Hartvig
Hartvig
9 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

I’m guessing that Koufax would be the answer to a “most votes/year, at least x # of years on the ballot” question of some sort. I think x would have to be at least 7 because a quick glance (and some even quicker and thus questionably accurate) calculations tell me that: a) Kaline averaged 33 votes/year in his 4 years on the ballot b) Sinder averaged 26 votes/year in his 5 years on the ballot c) Banks averaged 19.8 vptes/year in his 6 years on the ballot d) Koufax averaged 19.7 votes/year for his 19 years on the ballot Another… Read more »

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
9 years ago
Reply to  Hartvig

Nolan Ryan is another who received a lot of support: 24.4 votes per election, in 9 years on the ballot.

But the champ may well be Frank Thomas. Sure, he was on the ballot for ‘only’ four years, but he averaged 45 votes in those four years. He actually topped 50 twice, and didn’t win either time.

I didn’t remember Gwynn’s support having been that strong, but I did remember that Glavine got a lot of love.

Hartvig
Hartvig
9 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

Schilling was another with 28 votes/year in his 8 years on the ballot.

And Gwynn is a bit odd when compared to Raines. Raines came on the ballot a year later and was inducted a year sooner but only averaged 16.4 votes/year in his 13 years on the ballot. So even though Gwynn averaged close to 7 votes a year more than Raines it took him 2 years longer to get elected.

Chris C
Chris C
9 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

I think about 45 of those Biggio ballots are mine. 🙂

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
9 years ago
Reply to  Chris C

You may have, by percentage, the greatest impact of any voter on any one player (among players with more than, let’s say, 10 votes – obviously, those players who only got one vote had a much bigger influence by one person). I don’t actually want to slavishly look through all of the rounds and all of the voters, but I can’t imagine anyone else has done that much for one guy. Maybe an Alomar voter who’s supported him every time; that could be around 10% of his total (certainly, it’d be 8 or 9), where as you’re like 7% of… Read more »

Artie Z.
Artie Z.
9 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

I might be pretty close on Steady Eddie. Once I decided I liked Eddie’s consistency over McCovey’s peak I’ve stuck with Eddie except in a few instances when I just couldn’t do it (which would have been possible with some ballot in the 1930s when Bob Gibson or Al Kaline may have been the 3rd best player on the ballot – it’s one thing to vote for Eddie Murray over Lofton or Edgar, and another thing to vote for him over Al Kaline, even though I may have done that and will now apologize to Al Kaline’s family, friends, and… Read more »

Insert Name Here
Insert Name Here
9 years ago
Reply to  Chris C

On the flip side, I’ve voted in nearly every round, yet I don’t think I’ve ever voted for Smoltz or Biggio, or at least not more than once or twice each.

oneblankspace
9 years ago
Reply to  Chris C

I’ve had cast a few votes for Mr Biggio, and researched his claims.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
9 years ago
Reply to  Chris C

@7/Chris C.;

I think that I voted for Alomar just about every time he was on the ballot (till he dropped off).

Chris C
Chris C
9 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

I voted for Alomar several times myself. I actually didn’t vote for him in the redemption round because I assumed he would take 2B votes away from Biggio and Sandberg. Personally, I prefer Biggio, Sandberg, and Alomar all over Grich and Whittaker (who both have been elected) so obviously I’m in the minority here.

David Horwich
David Horwich
9 years ago
Reply to  Chris C

Actually, I agree with you on Alomar/Biggio/Sandberg over Grich & Whitaker (I’ve voted for Sandberg 30 times, Alomar 29). But the latter two are already in, and my guess is that not all 3 of the holdovers are going to make it; 2 out of 3, perhaps.

bells
bells
9 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

This is a list of all the guys with more than 100 votes that have been on the ballot since 1939, right? It’s missing Gwynn (346 votes), Glavine (262), as well as other notables, like Larkin, Walker, Ryan, and about ten others who had between 100 and 225 votes. Not that it makes an impact at the top, as all those guys are elected already and Gwynn was the highest, but I just wanted to note that there are more guys with a bunch of votes. Good to see it in a list! I often just peruse the spreadsheet and… Read more »

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
9 years ago
Reply to  bells

Yes, bells, you’re right. But I didn’t think about it when I was making the list. I’ll have to update it sometime…

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
9 years ago

As bells pointed out @12, I only used the updated spreadsheet when I posted my list of all-time leaders by number of votes. Here is the corrected list, including ALL players with 100 or more votes in the COG. This time, I denoted the “active” leaders with an asterisk. Here’s the list: John Smoltz – 658 *Craig Biggio – 630 *Ryne Sandberg – 517 Edgar Martinez – 507 Lou Whitaker – 493 *Kenny Lofton – 480 *Roberto Alomar – 434 *Eddie Murray – 413 Bobby Grich – 376 Sandy Koufax – 375 Tony Gwynn – 346 *Willie McCovey – 292… Read more »

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
9 years ago

In other Musial news, through 62 ballots cast, Musial has 59 votes. His next vote (assuming none of them go away) will make him our first 60-vote-getter since Rickey Henderson in the 1958.1 round. Other than that, I believe Cal Ripken (62 votes, 1960), Randy Johnson (66, 1963) and Greg Maddux (68, 1966) are the biggest vote-getters. And Musial’s might be most impressive of all, since there wasn’t nearly the backlog we have now when those other players were elected. He is still also looking to top George Brett (93.44%) for the highest vote percentage in COG history. Again, through… Read more »

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
9 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

Musial has now reached a 50-vote margin through 68 ballots cast. He leads McCovey 64-14. It’s looking less and less likely that Musial will catch Maddux for most overall votes (he needs four more to tie), but he remains ahead of Brett in terms of vote percentage. That is why the call him “The Man,” I believe.

Chris C
Chris C
9 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

Could be short lived records with Ted Williams two years away.

Hartvig
Hartvig
9 years ago
Reply to  Chris C

As much of a Musial fan as I am there are way too many secondary factors for this to mean a whole lot. Al Kaline got 19 votes because he was on the same ballot as Hank Aaron, Robert Clemente and Bob Gibson. Mays got 58 on the same ballot as Eddie Mathews and Ernie Banks. Williams will be on the ballot with Bob Feller & PeeWee Reese plus HOFer Bobby Doerr. And as Dr. Doom points out: our current leader for the highest percentage of votes received is George Brett. And as good as Brett is there are at… Read more »

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
9 years ago
Reply to  Hartvig

The Feller issue certainly puts the margin-of-victory record out of reach. Feller will garner 20+ votes, for sure.