Monday Game Quickies: Everything’s Jake … Almost

Cubs 2, @Red Sox 0 — Not Stephen Drew … Really? Stephen, eight-for-sixty-two, Drew, who’d fanned in both at-bats?? … Well, he had seen 19 pitches from Jake Arrieta by that point.

So, what would you have done, if Arrieta had gotten Drew out with pitch #120, to complete eight no-hit innings?

 

His prior highs were 105 this season, 114 career. I can’t see letting him throw 130 pitches. They’ve been careful with him all year, under 95 pitches in seven of ten starts.

Is it time to look at precedents for his sudden emergence, at age 28, after four crappy years? (Mike Scott comes to mind, but we don’t want to imply any shenanigans by Arrieta.) Before this year, Arrieta’s strikeout high was nine, four times in 72 starts. He’s fanned nine or more in four straight games now.

  • Arrieta’s last five games: 3 runs in 34.2 IP, 14 hits, 3 walks, 46 Ks.
  • He’s allowed just four extra-base hits out of 49 total; opponents slugging under .270.

__________

@Tigers 5, Athletics 4 — Not quite the “ultimate slam” — there was just one out, and one strike, when Rajai Davis caught a hanging slider from Sean Doolittle, and turned a 4-1 deficit to stunning victory.

The joyful disbelief on Rajai’s face as he reached first said all you need to know about how devastating Doolittle has been on batters this year. But his blown save on Saturday was a recent sign that — twenty-six straight scoreless innings aside — he’s still just human, after all. Another was the walk that set the stage for Davis, after two piddling hits and an easy punch-out: Austin Jackson fouled off three 2-and-2 offers, then took two straight balls — the lefty’s first walk in five weeks, and second of the year. In 27 prior at-bats that reached a 2-2 count, Doolittle had allowed a single and no walks, with 14 Ks.

Still another reminder that sudden reversals do happen was on deck while Davis batted: Ian Kinsler hit a 3-run homer Saturday with two out in the 9th, dodging a 2-1 loss.

  • Doolittle did have one other disaster this year, right before his scoreless streak: Tied 8th in Houston, four batters faced, four hits, all scored. And Mike Trout got him for a tying two-run homer in the 9th, back on April 15.
  • Phil Coke, my favorite target, kept Detroit’s ship from sinking utterly in the 8th, after the A’s had cracked a 1-1 tie with three runs, and Joba Chamberlain foundered. Coke came in with two on and no outs, and got two grounders for three outs.
  • There’s just one Tigers walk-off from 3 runs down in the database — the only one for any team with two outs and two strikes: in 1988, Alan Trammell off Cecilio Guante.
  • Scott Kazmir tamed the Tigers for five innings, but a hip condition forced him out mid-batter in the 6th, lead run on second, after Miggy’s homer tied it. Dan Otero cleaned that up.
  • So, what’s the story behind Otero? Waived twice in two days last March, he now has a 2.30-ish ERA in over 100 career innings. Super ground-ball rate, but doesn’t seem to be a submariner.
  • For Tigers fans, nothing that comes before October can erase the sting of last year’s ALCS stunners. But doing this, to this team, while the champs were getting humbled in Chicago … that’ll hold us through the next slump, at least.

__________

@Padres 1, Reds 0 — Tommy Medica drew a leadoff walk from Mat Latos in the 5th, then stole second, moved up aggressively on a fly to left-center, and scored on Everth Cabrera’s flyout. Medica also had the only hit against Latos, who retired the other 21 he faced. Jesse Hahn didn’t go deep in this one, but he’s allowed just 3 runs in his last four games, with 31 Ks in 24 IP.

  • Fourth time the Pads have ever won with just one hit — second this month.
  • Latos gets just the 12th loss since 1914 allowing no more than one run, one hit and one walk in 7+ IP.
  • Top of the 1st: Billy Hamilton singled, then thrown out by Yasmani Grandal. Todd Frazier walked, then doubled off by Cameron Maybin on Joey Votto’s fly.

__________

@Los Angeles 1, Cleveland 0 — This must have felt pretty sweet: Clint Robinson‘s first big-league hit was a pinch-single with two out in the 7th, plating the only run on a nicely worked full count — right after they had IBB’d the gimpy Hanley, also coming off the bench. Robinson is 29, with an OPS over .900 in the high minors, but has gotten only eight pinch-hit at-bats in two looks so far. I hope he gets a chance to stick, somewhere. Clint Barmes won’t last forever, and there should always be a Clint.

____________________

Going back to Mike Napoli’s homer off Masahiro Tanaka Saturday … The last starting pitcher to surrender a lead-changing home run with two out in the 9th: Stephen Strasburg in Wrigley, last August 22 — and, like Tanaka, on his 112th pitch. Strasburg took a 4-1 lead to the 9th, gave up two hits for one run, then a tying 2-run shot to Donnie Murphy. Three other SPs did this since 2009, all in 2011:

  • Cliff Lee — 0-2 count, pitch #115, tying solo by Jose Lopez.
  • Mike Leake — 2-0 count, pitch #91, tying 2-run shot by Bryan LaHair. (Leake took a minimum-batters one-hitter into the 9th.)
  • Clayton Kershaw — 3-2 count, pitch #112, go-ahead solo by Vernon Wells.

None of those four pitchers took the loss, as Tanaka did. Their teams all won; the Dodgers even rallied to get the win for Kershaw.

And while I have the list in front of me … In the last two years alone, Addison Reed has allowed eight lead-changing homers with two out in the 9th or extra innings. Eight! That’s more than the next two guys combined.

__________

As heard on SportsCenter … On Sunday, Jose Altuve swiped a pair in his fourth straight game — the first such streak since Ray Chapman, in 1917. (Yes, that Ray Chapman.) Altuve also had two or more hits in each game, which Chapman did not — so the streak (for all it’s worth) could be unique. Before 1980, the only ones with 3-game streaks of multiple hits and steals were Chapman and Bert Campaneris — and one of Campy’s games saw both his steals come in the 16th inning.

Among Altuve’s intriguing numbers:

  • He’s on a pace of 70 steals and just 6 caught stealing, a 92% success rate. The record rate for 60+ SB is 91%, by Willy Taveras (68-7, 2008).
  • His pace of 226 hits would shatter the modern record for a player listed at 5′ 7″ or smaller. (Jose is 5′ 6″.) Only six modern players of such stature have reached 200 hits in a season, led by the 209 of good ol’ Jigger Statz in 1923. (The Cubs in that decade cornered the market on 200-hit fireplugs, with Charlie Hollocher‘s 201 in 1922 and, of course, Hack Wilson‘s 208 in 1930.)
  • Alas for Houston, Altuve is on track to score just 80 runs — mighty odd. He doesn’t walk a lot, but he still has a .386 OBP and ranks 5th in MLB in times on base (including errors). Adding his 29 extra-base hits, 36 steals, efficient baserunning (3 CS, 3 outs on base), and batting 1st or 2nd almost every game, it’s puzzling that he has a below-AL-average scoring rate per time on base. But the team splits dispel the mystery. Check these batting averages, starting with Houston’s #3 spot (look away if you’re squeamish) — .236, .198, .212, .225, .224, .216 and .217. That’s a composite .219 for #3-9 — so it’s as if Altuve is leading off for the Padres. Anyway … 80 runs would be the fewest ever in a full schedule for a .370+ OBP and 60+ SB.

 

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BryanM
BryanM
9 years ago

Altuve is an outlier ,sure, but his stats remind us that it is darn hard to score 100 unless you are knocking yourself into scoring position a significant amount . Before the season , we were speculating on whether Billy Hamilton 2.0 would score 100 runs – based on his great base stealing – consensus was he would not, and he will have to have a great second half to do so, in spite of the fact that he has hit a bit better than projected and has 34 steals at the midpoint –

BryanM
BryanM
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

John , I phrased that badly – I will stipulate that Altuve scores surprisingly few runs for one who is on base as frequently as he is; and there have been times in the history of baseball when it was easier to score 100 runs than today; but, under current conditions , the usual route to scoring 100 is with a combination of OBP and power – last year 9 players scored 100 or more, they averaged 30 HR and about 70XBH low HR total was Carpenter with 11, but he hit 55 doubles, all the other 8 hit at… Read more »

BryanM
BryanM
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

John – I’ll go with likely rather than certain or I’d go with certain if we drop the bar down to 90 runs, so we are really quibbling over a slight difference — Best comps I can find for Altuve come from the careers of Lou Brock, Tim Raines and Kenny Lofton — great SB men all with High OBP — It would be wonderful if Altuve could come up to their standards — they typically reached 100 sometimes much more, but not always, and often they did it with the help of a dozen or so of both triples… Read more »

bstar
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Despite all those CS, Billy Hamilton overall has been a pleasant surprise this year. No one knew what kind of defender Hamilton would be in center. He’s been quite good: +9 fielding runs, +13 by Fangraphs’ UZR. I don’t think anyone projected Hamilton to have a league-average OPS+ at this point, either. So, a disappointment on the basepaths but a pleasant surprise as a hitter and defender. Overall, he’s got 2.1 WAR halfway through the season, 2.8 by FangraphsWAR. I think the Reds will take that. Even if Hamilton slumps in the second half, he’s got a great chance this… Read more »

Baltimorechop
Baltimorechop
9 years ago
Reply to  bstar

As a biased reds fan, I’ve personally witness at least 3 ham burglar caught stealings where I thought he was safe but the reds didn’t challenge. Seemed like reds were unwilling to waste challenge. To be fair, reds have a terrible record on their challenges. I swear 80% for have failed and against have worked. Wish someone had stats on that.

bstar
9 years ago
Reply to  Baltimorechop

Good info. How has Hamilton looked defensively, in your estimation?

David P
David P
9 years ago

FYI: If you have an amazon kindle, you can buy “56: Joe DiMaggio and the Last Magic Number in Sports” for $0.99. This is a one day sale for July 1st only! I haven’t read the book but the reviews are really good. Link is here:

http://www.amazon.com/56-DiMaggio-Magic-Number-Sports-ebook/dp/B004R1Q9SA/ref=sr_1_1?s=digital-text&ie=UTF8&qid=1404211043&sr=1-1&keywords=56+joe+dimaggio+and+the+last+magic+number+in+sports

Doug
Doug
9 years ago

As of the end of June, home teams have a .508 W-L% with a .498 Pythag. If that mark holds for the season, it would be second only to the .506 mark in 1917.

Home teams, incidentally, have always done better than Pythag (batting last is worth something). The smallest advantage was .003 in 1968, worth about half a game over 162.

Ken
Ken
9 years ago
Reply to  Doug

“As of the end of June, home teams have a .508 W-L%”

It seems like this has gotten worse as the season moves along. Anyone have the breakdown by month? Can’t seem to do that with the Play Index.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
9 years ago

Chris Carter currently has:. 88 strikeouts and 43 hits.
Brandon Hicks is looking at: 75 strikeouts and 33 hits.

Seasons with more 2x more SO than H, by PA:

649… Dunn
596… Reynolds
539… Deer
537… Uggla
496… Dunn
446… Upton
364… McGwire
351… Dave Nicholson (1964)
312… Cody Ransom (2012)
266… Chris Carter (current)
260… Nate Colbert (1975)
253… Kelly Shoppach
247… Ray Oyler
244… Ryan Langerhans
243… Brandon Wood
238… Andruw Jones
237… Brandon Hicks (current)
221… Bob Uecker !
216… Frank O’Rourke (1912)

This year, Cody Ransom has 17 hits and 40 strikeouts… in Japan.

Paul E
Paul E
9 years ago

” “So, what would you have done, if Arrieta had gotten Drew out with pitch #120, to complete eight no-hit innings?” ”

John:
Since, apparently, the Cubs are willing to trade away Samardzjia and live without the ever-so-essential 1-2 in the front of the rotation that would be extremely competitive, why not let him go for the no-no? It seems to me that our boy Epstein is prepared to let the mediocrity roll on as long as he can get away with it. If Arrieta gets hurt, he’s just another guy Epstein and Ricketts don’t have to pay 🙁

PaulE
PaulE
9 years ago

John A,
Well time willl tell now that the Cubs’ ace has departed for the usual suspects……and Epstein bought himself another three years. No, I’m not a Cubs fan though I have admired the talent of someof their ballplayers.

These trades generally don’t turn out well for the club that dealt the veteran

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
9 years ago

Anyone have a sense of
just how many decades we
are going to have to endure teams NOT
using their best relief pitcher in tie games on the road?

I’m so discouraged by it right now that I want to give up following baseball
(though of course i never will).