Bonds, Aaron and the Maris “Asterisk”

From 1904 through 1960 (AL) and 1961 (NL) the standard major league regular season schedule was 154 games long. Since 1961 (AL) and 1962 (NL) that standard schedule has been 162 games. The difference resulted in a stir (created in part by then-Commissioner Ford Frick) when Roger Maris took more than 154 games to tie and break Babe Ruth’s season home run record in 1961. The so-called Maris “asterisk” story is very old news and I have nothing to add to the tale itself. What I was curious to see, however, purely as a matter of statistical amusement, was what effect a restriction to the first 154 games of each season would have on the career home run numbers of Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds. The answer, which I found even more amusing than I expected, is after the jump.

As most fans of baseball numbers know, Barry Bonds hit seven more career regular season home runs than Hank Aaron, 762 for Bonds to 755 for Aaron, making Bonds the all-time record holder for career regular season homers in the major leagues. But what if we applied a Ford Frickian-style adjustment and looked only at homers hit over the first 154 games of each regular season? After all, Aaron played the first part of his career in the shorter-schedule era.

Most Career Regular Season Homers in Team Games 1 through 154 of Each Season
T1. Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds 734
3. Babe Ruth 712
4. Willie Mays 639
5. Alex Rodriguez 631

Note that Babe Ruth loses a couple of his 714 career homers under this test. Even with the old 154-game standard season, tie games that were subsequently replayed and pennant-resolving playoff games could extend a team’s schedule beyond 154 games. Ruth had two homers (one in 1925, the other in 1932) in the 11 such “season-overtime” games in which he played over the course of his career.

With Aaron and Bonds in an elegantly perfect tie at 734 homers each when using the 154 team games per season limit, simple arithmetic shows that Bonds had 28 homers in games after game 154, while Aaron had 21. But Bonds is not the record-holder for career homers in games 155 or later.

Most Career Regular Season Homers in Team Games 155 and Later of Each Season
1. Harmon Killebrew 34
2. Mark McGwire 32
3. Barry Bonds 28
4. Reggie Jackson 27
5. Willie McCovey 26

It is interesting to see Killebrew on top, especially given that his first 84 career homers came before 1961 when the switch over to the longer schedule occurred. Reggie Jackson’s presence in the top 5 also caught my eye — apparently he was Mr. Late September as well as Mr. October.

Going back to the original application of the “asterisk” idea, how does the single season record now shake out if we limit it to the first 154 games of a season?

Most Homers in a Regular Season, in Team Games 1 Through 154
1. Barry Bonds (2001) 68
T2. Mark McGwire (1998) and Sammy Sosa (1998) 63
4. Sammy Sosa (1999) 61
5. Babe Ruth (1927) 60

For the AL only, the top 5 list looks like this:

Most Homers in a Regular Season, AL, in Team Games 1 Through 154
1. Babe Ruth (1927) 60
2. Babe Ruth (1920) 59
T3. Roger Maris (1961), Jimmie Foxx (1932) and Hank Greenberg (1938) 58

Lastly, what about the single-season record for homers after game 154? Well, at the top there’s Killebrew again.

Most Homers in a Regular Season, Team Games 155 and Later
1. Harmon Killebrew (1962) 8
T2. Chris Davis (2012), Carlos Delgado (2003) and Mark McGwire (1998) 7
T5. eight players tied with 6

Through the first 151 Twins games in 1962, Killebrew had 37 homers, the same number of homers Norm Cash had, and just one more than Rocky Colavito had, through 151 Tigers games that year.  But starting with Twins game 152,  Killer went on a spectacular home run tear, slugging 11 dingers in the next 11 games to run away with the AL home run title, a title he did not thereafter surrender until 1965.

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Richard Chester
Richard Chester
9 years ago

In 1962 Killebrew’s last 11 homers came in his team’s last 12 games (the Twins played 163 games that year). I have found only one other player who has matched that, Albert Belle in 1995.

David Horwich
David Horwich
9 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

I knew Belle posted some impressive numbers in the shortened season of ’95, but I’d not realized what a streak he was on to finish the year. From August 1 to the end of the season he hit .350/.439/.885, with 23 doubles and 31 HR in 58 games – a pace of 65 doubles and 87 HR over 162 games…yowza. Coincidentally enough, in 2001 Barry Bonds hit 31 HR in his last 58 GP. He didn’t hit nearly as many doubles as Belle (12), but of course drew a huge number of walks (76), so his slash line for those… Read more »

John Autin
Editor
9 years ago

Great concept, birtelcom! In the same vein: — George Sisler holds the season hits record for the first 154 games (257). Ichiro was 7 hits short in 2004 after 154 team games. Like so many record setters, Ichiro and Sisler both finished the year on fire: Ichiro with a 13-game hit streak (26 for 59); Sisler with 20 hits in the last 9 games, and 48 hits in the last 22 games (plus 29 RBI). — Ty Cobb holds the career hits record for the first 154 games, though the exact number is unknown. Pete Rose had a mere 4,070… Read more »

John Autin
Editor
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I’ll add that Nap Lajoie in 1901 had a higher hits rate than either Sisler or Ichiro — 232 hits in 137 team games, which is 260 hits per 154 or 274 hits per 162. But that was without the foul strike rule.

oneblankspace
oneblankspace
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Tim Raines set the single-season NL rookie record for stolen bases in strike-shortened 1981 — Montréal played 108 games, Raines played 88.

wlcmlc
wlcmlc
9 years ago

How about the lost stats due to baseball strikes?