Ichiro Watch

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Ichiro Suzuki picked up two hits last night to move past 2900 for his career. He’s on pace to finish this season somewhere around 2925. Will he get another season to reach the finish line? I’ll look at that question after the jump.

When Suzuki signed with the Marlins, I hadn’t expected he would see much playing time without the DH and given Miami’s young outfield that logged over 600 PA per man last season. But, circumstances will knock about 100-120 PA or so off that workload this year and most of those PAs have gone (so far) to Ichiro, who is on pace to finish with close to the same number of PA he had last year in New York. If Ichiro finishes above 350 PA this season (he needs 100 PA more), he will join this group of outfielders with two such seasons aged 40-41.

Rk	Name	Yrs	From	To	Age
1	Raul Ibanez	2	2012	2013	40-41	Ind. Seasons
2	Steve Finley	2	2005	2006	40-41	Ind. Seasons
3	Rickey Henderson	2	1999	2000	40-41	Ind. Seasons
4	Stan Musial	2	1961	1962	40-41	Ind. Seasons
5	Sam Rice	2	1930	1931	40-41	Ind. Seasons
6	Ty Cobb	2	1927	1928	40-41	Ind. Seasons

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/30/2015.

So, will Ichiro get to 3000? He’s signed through the end of this season, but it looks like he’ll need close to the same number of PA next season, which could be a tall order even with the most accommodating of host clubs. Of the group above, only Musial and Henderson added a third 350 PA season at age 42, so the odds are not with Ichiro, more especially given the decline in his slugging over the past several years.

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	IBB	Pos
2009 ★	35	SEA	146	678	88	*225*	31	4	11	46	26	9	32	71	.352	.386	.465	.851	129	15	*9/D
2010 ★	36	SEA	*162*	732	74	*214*	30	3	6	43	42	9	45	86	.315	.359	.394	.754	113	13	*9/D
2011	37	SEA	161	721	80	184	22	3	5	47	40	7	39	69	.272	.310	.335	.645	86	13	*9D
2012	38	TOT	*162*	663	77	178	28	6	9	55	29	7	22	61	.283	.307	.390	.696	93	5	*97/8D
2013	39	NYY	150	555	57	136	15	3	7	35	20	4	26	63	.262	.297	.342	.639	77	4	*98/7D
2014	40	NYY	143	385	42	102	13	2	1	22	15	3	21	68	.284	.324	.340	.664	88	1	*9/78D
2015	41	MIA	96	251	23	57	1	3	1	15	9	5	18	32	.249	.301	.293	.594	66	1	97/8D

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/30/2015.

When less than 10% of your hits are for extra bases and your slugging percentage drops below your on-base percentage, the end cannot be far off. Still, Ichiro is compensating by improving his walk rate significantly without increasing his strikeouts. He’s also not costing Miami anything on defense, and almost nothing on the bases, so there’s some value in that. His next stolen base will be the 25th over the past two seasons, putting him on par with Nap Lajoie, Willie Mays and Ty Cobb (nice group) over the same ages, and significantly trailing only Rickey, Davey Lopes and Honus Wagner.

Whether he gets to 3000 or not, Ichiro’s place among the game’s elite seems assured. Measured over the first 15 seasons of a career or over his ages (27-41), Ichiro trails only Pete Rose in hits. If Ichiro doesn’t get another hit, the only non-HOFers ahead of him are Rose, A-Rod, Palmeiro, Bonds and Jeter, the last a sure thing and the others with baggage that Ichiro lacks.

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Doug

8 years ago

If you were wondering, as I was, how Ichiro’s lone double in 250+ PA stacked up, here are the live ball era seasons with the most PA with one double or none. Rk Player PA 2B Year Age Tm 1 Rafael Belliard 321 0 1988 26 PIT 2 Jim Davenport 307 1 1968 34 SFG 3 Jose Valdivielso 304 1 1960 26 WSH 4 Choo-Choo Coleman 277 0 1963 25 NYM 5 Jose Tartabull 275 1 1967 28 BOS 6 Roger Repoz 255 1 1969 28 CAL 7 Ichiro Suzuki 251 1 2015 41 MIA Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play… Read more »

Dr. Doom

8 years ago

Reply to Doug

Of the seven listed seasons, believe it or not, Ichiro’s three 3B are NOT the most; Belliard had 4 (along with no other XBH). The most XBH was be Roger Repoz with 10 – EIGHT of them homers. In spite of those homers, he posted only a 63 OPS+.

I agree that Ichiro will be getting another 2B… still, it’s an interesting group.

David P

8 years ago

I was surprised that someone signed Iciro this season and that he got this much playing. So now I’m expecting him to be back again next year with someone (just hope it isn’t my Indians). Though it may take two more seasons for him to cross 3,000 hits I think someone will give him the opportunity.

Mike L

8 years ago

I always linked Ichiro with Jeter–I know it sounds ridiculous, but I thought they resembled each other in approaches to the game–intense inward focus on excellence, even when the body would no longer cooperate. Both played longer than their talents justified, and not being power hitters, weren’t able to easily transition to a DH-and-off-the-bench-crunch-one like Thome, but there’s a lot to admire.

robbs

8 years ago

How many hits would age 20 to 26 Ichiro project to? He’s HOF without another at bat in my book.

Doug

8 years ago

Reply to robbs

Let’s be conservative and give him 5 more years, age 22-26. I think we’re talking a minimum 800 more hits and probably closer to 1000. Perhaps not enough to threaten Rose or Cobb but damn close.

Brent

8 years ago

Reply to Doug

Rose once sneeringly suggested that Ichiro could have credit for all his hits in Japan and he still couldn’t catch good ol’ Charlie Hustle, but I think Peter Edward didn’t really think Ichiro would reach 3000. Ichiro had 1278 hits in Japan, so his total is 4179, well within striking distance of Rose. Rose’s disdain for Ichiro and Jeter chasing him makes me wonder what Cobb would have said about Rose’s 1983 season (OPS+ 69) and the fact that Rose got over 1000 PAs after that season. I suspect Cobb would have been similarly condescending.

David P

8 years ago

Reply to Brent

Brent – Actually Rose said that Ichiro shouldn’t be given credit for his hits in Japan. And that if he was, then Rose and others deserved credit for their hits in the minors.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2013/08/22/ichiro-suzuki-4000-hits-pete-rose-yankees-japan/2686497/

Hub Kid

8 years ago

Reply to David P

I am pretty sure that Rose’s 2013 comments are a takeback of an earlier ‘give him his Japanese hits’ comment from some years before. I don’t care enough about Pete Rose to dig around to prove that, though. Rose’s ‘If you count his Japanese hits, give me my minor league hits’ argument is more than a bit spurious to me – the NPB is not a minor league, but then again nor is it the MLB. We’ll never know, and I agree with Doug’s estimate that Ichiro would probably have gotten about 5 more seasons, so it’s still an interesting… Read more »

Brent

8 years ago

Reply to David P

David P, I was referencing a Joe Posnanski blog post from years ago, and yes, Pete went back on what he originally said after he realized that Ichiro COULD catch him with his NPL hits added in, here is a summary of what Posnanski said after the take back: “A handful of years years ago, I was talking with Pete Rose while he signed autographs in Las Vegas. I’ve done this five or six times now and it’s fantastic every single time. People will disagree about whether Rose belongs in the Hall of Fame but as a character, a storyteller,… Read more »

Author

Doug

8 years ago

Reply to Brent

Just to be clear, my gut-feel estimate of hits for Ichiro above (comment #6) was for major league hits, had he been in the majors for those years. It’s not an argument for factoring in his NPL results.

Given that Ichiro’s first look at major league pitching resulted in 242 hits would suggest he probably would have been at or above 200 hits for two or three years prior to that, so his 5 year progression might have been something like 160, 180, 200, 210, 220, to get pretty close to the 1000 mark that I suggested.

Brent

8 years ago

I would think the Mariners would at least think about bringing him back next year if he wants to play. They would have a box office reason for doing so, I would think and he certainly isn’t hurting the Marlins as a 4th outfielder.

Mark

8 years ago

I think that the minors are quite different than NPB. When ichiro played in Japan he was playing in the highest league available to him. Rose’ minor league time was not the highest league available to him.

mosc

8 years ago

One thing I think people forget about Ichiro is he was hard to project as a prospect even if he was drafted into the MiLB. He probably was not going to rush through anybody’s system with deceptive speed, a quirky swing, and little power for a corner outfielder in the heyday of home runs. Boggs is a good measuring stick and I think Ichiro would have had a lot harder time that him. If you compare Ichiro to say a 22 year old Jeter, shortstops are asked to hit a lot less, Jeter took walks and hit for some power.… Read more »

mosc

8 years ago

Reply to mosc

another thing is after his terrible age 37 season he had 2428 MLB hits. If he had come up earlier he would have been at or close to 3,000 at that point. How much longer would he have held on through the struggles of his last 5 years? With 3,000 hits and the HOF assured, I don’t think he would still be playing.

Later start than you might think, earlier end than he’s reaching now.

Author

Doug

8 years ago

Reply to mosc

Really good points, mosc. I like Lofton as a comp except, as you say, with a quirky swing and not quite as much speed. But, part of why Lofton got a late start in the majors was he went to university and thus had a late start in the minors. Attending Arizona, his first two years were in a short season league, then hit .331 and .308 in A+ and AAA. So, given that he went to college, he may have gotten to the majors about as soon as could reasonably be expected. Possibly, Ichiro, perhaps hitting for a higher… Read more »

David P

8 years ago

Reply to Doug

Mosc – I generally agree with your comments re: Ichiro. People tend to forget that he weighed 124 pounds coming out of high school and still doesn’t speak much english. So what scenarios were there for him to reach the majors at age 22 or younger? 1) Straight out of high school. Hard to see MLB teams being interested in him at this point. Even the Japanese teams were skeptical. Best case scenario might be being drafted in about the 40th round. Which means he’s going to start off in the low, low minors. And who’s going to invest in… Read more »

CursedClevelander

8 years ago

Reply to Doug

Obviously, we can never know how Ichiro would have performed in a strange country where he didn’t know the language and wasn’t 100% comfortable, and it’s very hard to translate NPB stats to an MLB context, let alone an MiLB context, but given the numbers Ichiro was putting up in his early 20’s with Orix, I have to think he’d have been a force in the low minors. On a pure scouting level, he obviously didn’t have an MLB-type body, and I don’t know what he would have looked like to scouts as a 20 year old, but it’s fair… Read more »

8 years ago

Reply to CursedClevelander

To your point:

Ichiro’s first full season in NPB (when he was 20) saw him hit .385

We can’t speak for his pathway from High School through the Japanese minors to get to that level of talent, but it’s very fair to say that the 20 year-old Ichiro was Major League ready to the caliber of a .300 hitter.

no statistician but

8 years ago

Reply to mosc

I think there’s some confusion here about the entire premise of Ichiro’s chances of success had he reached the bigs at an earlier age. The question seems to have been sidetracked into whether he would have been given an opportunity, rather than addressing the issue of how he would have succeeded had the opportunity arisen. Since it didn’t, how it failed to transpire is a moot point. So the question still remains: if he HAD appeared at age 21 or so in a major league uniform, how effective a player would he have been through those years in which he… Read more »

David P

8 years ago

Reply to no statistician but

NSB – To try to answer your question, I looked for players who were similar to Ichiro from ages 27-36 (his peak). In other words, I looked for players who were high BA, high speed, low power. And who didn’t play too long ago. I found three: Carew, Brock, and Rose (though Rose was more hustle than speed). Carew has 845 hits from age 21-26, though it should be noted that he was much better hitter than Ichiro from ages 27-36 (143 vs 117 OPS+). Brock had 638 hits from age 22-26 and was a similar hitter to Ichiro from… Read more »

mosc

8 years ago

Reply to David P

I agree with this. Carew and Rose were better hitters and middle infielders! The second reason there is why they had so many more opportunities than Ichiro at a younger age. We can fantasize about Ichiro in an era where he wouldn’t have slipped through anybody’s radar but he wasn’t a middle infielder or a power threat. Brock is a great choice for a comp. I have Brock’s OPS+ 22-26 as just 106 with 146 steals at under 70% success. Brock wasn’t a regular until he was 23 and even then it was mostly because of how unbelievably fast he… Read more »

mosc

8 years ago

Reply to mosc

Also a note here on Ichiro’s real strengths. He was an amazing contact hitter and bunter with an unusual way of reducing his time between batted ball and reaching first, had a tremendous arm, and could utilize his speed extremely well by reading pitchers. Some of these things bled over into also helping him be one of the best ever at avoiding the double play in an era with lots of baserunners. Oddly not listed there is his ability to hit. Batting 350, especially in the early 2000s, is not enough to call somebody a good hitter. I find it… Read more »

Richard Chester

8 years ago

Reply to mosc

Just for the heck of it I did an analysis to see how Ichiro compares to other lead-off batters in terms of RBI. There have been 52 searchable players with 4500+ PA from the lead-off position. Ichiro has 622 RBI with 8276 PA in the lead-off position only for a ratio of 0.075 RBI/PA. That puts him in 22nd place among those 52. Tops were Johnny Damon, Brady Anderson and Jimmy Rollins. At the bottom were Otis Nixon, Richie Ashburn and Maury Wills.

mosc

8 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

RBI from leadoff is going to be hugely different when the pitcher is in front of the guy and when a hitter is in front of the guy. All the more impressive from rollins, not surprising from somebody like Damon who played his entire career in the AL. Ichiro until age 42 was AL-only so ranking 22nd on that list, particularly given the run scoring enviornments of his era, is not impressive.

David P

8 years ago

Reply to mosc

Mosc: Thanks for the positive comments re: my #18. You mentioned Gwynn. Somehow he slipped through the cracks in my list of low-power, high-average, high steal guys. Gywnn had 770 hits from age 22-26. (I deliberately left Jeter off because he had about twice as many homers as Ichiro). BTW, here’s what I don’t see people saying about Ichiro and all his hits: It was basically a “Perfect Storm” situation. 1) High batting average 2) Low walks 3) High offensive era 4) Healthy 5) Batting leadoff All of that means lots and lots and lots of PAs/ABs. Which in turn… Read more »

mosc

8 years ago

Reply to David P

Gwynn vs Ichiro is interesting. Aged 27-36, the main difference between the two at the plate was health and where they were hit. Gwynn slashed .342/.394/.458 compared to Ichiro’s .331/.376/.430. Course Gwynn would also outhit Ichiro’s BA by a full 100 points the next season so that’s as nice to Ichiro as I can be. Still, Ichiro managed 7339 PA’s to Gwynn’s 5788 during those stretches. Gwynn mostly hit second/third in the NL vs Ichiro’s leadoff lock in the AL. Perhaps it would be smart to add unusually durable to the list of Ichiro’s attributes. Just saying I think if… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin

8 years ago

I don’t see Ichiro getting to 3000 hits. At his present pace, he’ll end up with 2,930, maybe 2,935 hits by the end of 2015; about 65 hits short. If he gets, say, 250 AB and hits about .260, he’ll get those 65 more hits next year. BUT, he’s 41 now, will be 42 next year – how many 42 year-old players have even gotten 250 AB? The ones I thought of were Honus Wagner, Dave Winfield, Yaz, Sam Rice, Luke Appling, Ty Cobb. All of these guys had better age-41 years hitting than Ichiro is having now. This doesn’t… Read more »

Richard Chester

8 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

All told 15 players have had one or more seasons of 250 AB at age 42 or older. High was Pete Rose with 493 AB in 1983. Luke Appling had the highest PA with 619 in 1949. Cobb never made it to age 42.

Mike L

8 years ago

Ichiro’s slightly lesser comp–Willie Randolph. Ichiro has a bit more power and a more speed, but Willie actually had a higher OBA and their OPS+ is fairly close (104 for Willie, 109 for Ichiro). Ichiro has about a season’s more PA, but their 162 game averages are fairly close as well. Willie’s were 93 R, 23 2B, 5 3B, 4HR, and 51 RBI. Ichiro’s was 93R, 24 @B, 6 3B, 8 HR, and 61 RBI.
Ichiro has 58.6 bWAR in 9927 PA, Willie 65.5 bWAR in 9561 PA.

brp

8 years ago

We’re really banging on Ichiro without accounting for the fact that his long decline phase (2011-present, starting at age 38 basically) is hurting his overall rate stats. He’s probably hung around too long based on reputation, name recognition, etc., but he’s still roughly a replacement player at age 41 and that’s damned impressive in its own right. From 2001-2010, ages 27-36, we have a guy whose seasonal averages are: 159 Games (durability is a valuable skill) 105 R 224 H, 46 BB, 5 HBP (or 275 TOB not counting ROEs, which are also likely high for a fast lefty guy… Read more »

David P

8 years ago

BRP – I don’t see people banging Ichiro around so much as acknowledging his strengths and limitations. There’s no doubt that a 10 year peak of 54.6 WAR with the two highest seasons being 9.1 and 7.1 is excellent. At the same time, his 161 Rbat from ages 27-36 only puts him about 184th all time for those ages. And that likely greatly overrates him for several reasons: 1) Some players below him played during the 154 game season. 2) Some players below him lost time due to WW1/WWII or various strikes. 3) Batting leadoff and playing during a high… Read more »

mosc

8 years ago

Reply to David P

I agree. Ichiro’s abilities and significance are not in question just the focus on hits as his major contribution. It was not. His bat was a help to his career but not his best attribute. RBAT age 27-36 also discounts the fact that he’s the all time leader in PA’s over that period of life by a country mile. His 184th ranking in our cherry picked peak (most guys best 10 years are behind them by 36) would drop to probably twice that if you have say a 3500 PA threshold (he managed a staggering 7339) and look at RBAT/PA.… Read more »

Author

Doug

8 years ago

Reply to mosc

Ichiro is the all-time Rdp leader (for now), just ahead of Johnny Damon. Nobody else is close. Rk Player Rdp PA GDP 1 Ichiro Suzuki 50.3 9931 83 2 Johnny Damon 49.5 10917 93 3 Larry Bowa 36.4 9109 121 4 Willie Davis 33.6 9822 128 5 Steve Finley 33.4 10460 152 6 Carl Crawford 33.1 6962 75 7 Brett Butler 33.1 9545 62 8 Vada Pinson 32.9 10402 164 9 Cristian Guzman 30.8 5785 88 10 Mickey Rivers 29.2 6026 44 11 Richie Ashburn 28.8 9736 83 12 Randy Winn 28.2 6878 98 13 Juan Pierre 27.3 8280 92… Read more »

David P

8 years ago

Reply to Doug

Doug: I was about to post that same info. Though for some reason, Ichiro’s player page shows him with 54 Rdp, instead of 50.

Of course, the data doesn’t go back to Cobb’s era. Too bad…

David P

8 years ago

Reply to mosc

In answer to Mosc’s other question, the single season leader in outs is Omar Moreno with 560 in 1980. Ichiro had 516 in 2011 which doesn’t make the all-time top 20.

Richard Chester

8 years ago

Reply to mosc

Ichiro’s 516 outs in 2011 puts him in a tie for 46th place for most outs in a season with 5 others. Omar Moreno holds the record with 560 outs in 1980.

Lawrence Azrin

8 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

@37;

In the late 70s/early 80s, I sometimes saw him referred to as “Omar The Out-Maker”.

His rank in “Outs Made” from 1979-1982: 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 1st

Rbat those years: -9, -25, -7, -28

brp

8 years ago

Reply to mosc

This makes sense. I guess here at HHS I’d assume we all know that an “empty average” doesn’t make for a good hitter. Of course Ichiro was a very, very good hitter, but it doesn’t seem we were disputing that either; top 200 batter all-time is still great. However I know your frustration when hearing people at work talk about how so-and-so is having a better year because his batting average is .260 instead of .240 from a season ago, or something like that. @David Hruska P 31, I didn’t really check his current season. So, the guy should have… Read more »

David P

8 years ago

Reply to brp

BRP- Actually the issue is that Ichiro can no longer hit righties, but teams keep using him against them. The Yankees did it in 13-14 and the Marlins are doing it this year.

He’d probably have positive WAR if he was being used correctly: start and pinch hit against lefties, late inning defensive replacement, late inning base runner. Giving him 200+ PAs against righties is just plain dumb.

Jimbo

8 years ago

Reply to David P

Fascinating to see that Ichiro has always hit LHP’s better, and especially this year. Do managers even look at the data?

Jimbo

8 years ago

Reply to David P

Ichiro was a career .611 hitter when he bunted.

Author

Doug

8 years ago

To echo the points made that Ichiro’s real hallmark is as a complete player, Ichiro is the only player to accumulate 50 Rbaser and 50 Rdp. Add to this 161 Rbat through 2010 (but -56 since then) and 108 Rfield, and you have a 100/100/100 player for batting, fielding and baserunning (Rbaser+Rdp). Kenny Lofton (who mosc mentioned as a good Ichiro comp) is the only other 100/100/100 player. Rk Player Rbaser+ Rdp Rbat Rfield G PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS 1 Ichiro Suzuki 109.9 103.4 107.6 2304 9931 1328 2903… Read more »

mosc

8 years ago

Reply to Doug

It’s worth noting in this that Ichiro has -78 RPOS so his DWAR components of RFIELD and RPOS do not add up to be particularly impressive (+30) especially compared to the career competent CF that was Lofton. Adding in his RPOS to his RFIELD (108+37) gives him a 115 run advantage on the defensive side of the ball over Ichiro and really shouldn’t be understated. There are a few other guys to mention too. Setting requirements of RBAT > 100 and RFIELD+RPOS > 100 I think Lofton’s RBASER+RDP of 101 is best?? I found Larkin at 84 and Mays at… Read more »

mosc

8 years ago

Reply to mosc

AROD aged 20-32 had the bat and the glove and managed +55 on the RBASER+RDP category too, so there’s another name.

brp

8 years ago

Reply to mosc

Lofton should be in the HOF, but that’s another discussion. Ichiro played primarily CF one year – 2007, at age 33. He put up 4 Rfield. He also split between CF & RF in 2008 and put up 9 Rfield. This is reasonable enough evidence (200+ games) that he was at worst an average CF into his mid-30s. Ichiro could have played CF for most of his career and just wasn’t asked to. RPOS is fine for what it is, but here we have evidence that Ichiro likely could have played CF and put up more WAR just by advent… Read more »

mosc

8 years ago

Reply to brp

I don’t buy much of this. Ichiro’s RFIELD is compared to an average right fielder, not an average center fielder. An average right fielder playing center for extended periods is going to be terrible. Especially with the value that Ichiro’s arm brought being similarly utilized keeping him in right I’m not ready to say he was lofton’s equal at center field by any stretch. He clearly didn’t have lofton’s speed. Course, RFIELD is a terrible statistic as we’ve discussed many times on here and I would favor even more extreme positional value adjustments. Just like he didn’t play in the… Read more »

Dr. Doom

8 years ago

Reply to mosc

If I recall correctly, in 2001 (or maybe ’02), Mike Cameron had one of those years where he pulled back like 3-4 HR from over the fence. I remember thinking that he seemed to be on Sportscenter or Baseball Tonight (both of which were shows I then considered watchable at the time – oh how things change) like every night making spectacular catches. The fact that he went on to have a 4-HR game in ’02 pretty much guaranteed that he’d stay on everyone’s radar. For what it’s worth, I thought Cameron still passed the eye test in ’08 and… Read more »