2015 World Series Preview: Game 1

Tuesday night marks the beginning of a highly anticipated World Series between the New York Mets and Kansas City Royals.

It’s going to be Fall Classic first-timers versus a club that has “been there before;” power pitching versus contact hitting; Jim Breuer versus Sung Woo Lee; a mega market versus one of MLB’s tiniest.

High Heat Stats will bring you insight and entertainment throughout the series. Game previews like this will put star—and scrub—performances in historical context, while dissecting the matchups that could determine which team clinches the 2015 title.

 

Historically Speaking…

  • The best run differential for a New York team in the 162-game era—since 1961—belongs to the 1998 Yankees (plus-309). The Mets have thus far outscored their opposition 43-26 in the postseason, a plus-306 run differential if scaled over 162 games.
  • If Bartolo Colon makes an appearance, he’ll be the oldest player (42 years, 156 days) to do so in the World Series since Jamie Moyer in 2008 (45 years, 342 days for his Game 3 start).
  • Prior to NewMatt Harvey-Dark Knight York’s Matt Harvey, Barry Zito (San Francisco Giants, 2012) was the most recent Scott Boras client to serve as starting pitcher for a World Series opener. Prior to him, it was Anthony Reyes of the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals.
  • Royals shortstop Alcides Escobar seeks to become the first player ever to win ALCS MVP and World Series MVP in the same postseason. (The American League began recognizing an ALCS MVP in 1980.)
  • Royals reliever Luke Hochevar will join David Price as the only pitchers to be selected No. 1 overall in the amateur draft and compete in the World Series for their original teams.
  • Six of the 11 pitchers on Kansas City’s active roster weren’t on the team when it won the AL pennant last year.

 

What to Watch for

  • Kansas City’sAlcides Escobar Heat Map Escobar has been an aggressive hitter throughout 2015, but he is taking that to an extreme this October. In 20 percent of his postseason plate appearances, the shortstop has put the first pitch in play. His heat map in these situations comes courtesy of ESPN’s Mark Simon.
  • The Mets used their baserunning to put pressure on the defenses they faced in the NLDS and NLCS, averaging a stolen base per game. With nearly a week to rest their legs leading up the Game 1, that’s a trend we might see continue…especially as Edinson Volquez takes the mound for the Royals. The battery of Volquez and Salvador Perez caught only four of 22 would-be base-stealers this season (81.8% success rate), and Volquez has just one career pick-off.
  • Home run binges have been a huge reason for New York’s second-half ascension, but rallying with the long ball will be a challenge in the series opener. The back end of Kansas City’s bullpen features a rested Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis. A product of both their pitching styles and the spaciousness of Kauffman Stadium, Herrera and Davis are among the least homer-prone relievers, despite heavy workloads. Here’s how they stack up to their AL peers in HR/9 since the beginning of 2014, according to FanGraphs:

AL HR/9, 2014-2015

 

Follow along for ongoing coverage of the World Series!

And HHS has football goodies for you, too!

 

 

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Andy
Admin
8 years ago

The oldest player to appear for the Mets in the World Series is Willie Mays, who was 42 years, 163 days old in Game 3 of the 1973 World Series. That means if this series lasts more than a week and Bartolo Colon (42 years, 156 days old today) appears after that, he’ll be the oldest Met ever to appear in the World Series.

Doug
Doug
8 years ago
Reply to  Andy

The oldest Royal to appear in the World Series was Hal McRae at age 40 when he made 3 pinch-hitting appearances in the 1985 series. Second was Jason Frasor at age 37 in his one relief appearance last season. The oldest Royal to start a World Series game and oldest to get a hit was Jose Cardenal, two months younger than Frasor in the final game of the 1980 series.

Brent
Brent
8 years ago

Raul Mondesi added to roster for Royals (and Terrance Gore dropped). He is the 20 year old son of the prior ML playing Raul Mondesi. He has not played an inning in ML ball. Assuming he gets in a game, is that a first? A player who has never played in the Major Leagues getting his MLB debut in the World Series?

brp
brp
8 years ago
Reply to  Brent

Looks like he’d be the first:
http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/kansas-city-royals-raul-mondesi-jr-could-be-first-major-leaguer-to-debut-in-world-series-102615

“The unexpected addition of Mondesi is fascinating on any number of levels, starting with the fact that no player has ever made his major-league debut in the World Series, according to STATS LLC.”

Doug
Editor
8 years ago
Reply to  brp

Ken Brett probably came the closest to doing this, with a single regular season appearance and two World Series appearances for the Red Sox in his 1967 debut season.

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
8 years ago
Reply to  Brent

He would indeed become the first player to make his MLB debut in the World Series. Two other players made their debuts in the postseason: Mark Kiger in 2006 with the A’s. He was added to the roster because Mark Ellis got injured, played the 9th inning in two games as a defensive replacement, but never got a PA. He never again played in the majors. He was picked in the 5th round of the famous 2002 ‘Moneyball Draft,’ and his minor league numbers show decent plate discipline, but he never really had stellar numbers overall, and he was a… Read more »

mosc
mosc
8 years ago
Reply to  Brent

Am I the only one who read that online and thought it was talking about his father? I’m thinking man, they must REALLY be desperate for a pinch hitter in those inter-league games. He must have had a great year in Mexico or something. Though his father hasn’t hit MLB pitching since 2005 he’s only 44. I guess in my mind 2005 was a little more recent and he was a little younger than 44. HA!

Brent
Brent
8 years ago
Reply to  mosc

Mosc, if you want to be really confused, this is Raul A. Mondesi, while Raul Mondesi, Jr. (his brother) plays in the Tampa minor league system. Yes, Raul Mondesi, Sr., ala George Foreman, named both his sons Raul.

Doug
Doug
8 years ago

Edinson Volquez is the 83rd pitcher to start World Series game 1 aged 30 or older, and he does so with an 83 career ERA+ thru age 29, easily of the worst in the group (Early Wynn, with a 92 ERA+ thru age 29 is next).

If you expand the group to include all 163 World Series game 1 starters, Volquez still has the lowest career ERA+ thru age 29, followed by Anthony Reyes (86), Bob Walk (87), Mule Watson (89) and then Wynn.

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
8 years ago

Well…that’s quite a way to start the WS.

According to my very quick research, that’s the first inside-the-park HR in the World Series since Mule Haas hit one in Game 4 of the 1929 WS for the Philadelphia A’s against the Chicago Cubs. It’s the 13th ever as per David Vincent’s book about HR’s, though the Wiki article on inside-the-park HR’s only has 9 instances listed.

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
8 years ago

Cross-referencing the Play Index and Wikipedia’s article on inside-the-park HR’s, David Vincent’s count of 13 WS inside-the-park HR’s (counting Escobar’s, of course) is correct. For some reason, the Play Index does not have the following HR’s listed as being inside-the-park jobs: Patsy Dougherty in 1903, Duffy Lewis in 1915, and Larry Gardner in 1916 (coincidentally, all three of those guys played for the Red Sox). The Wiki article is also missing 3 instances, which the Play Index has correctly listed as inside-the-park HR’s: Benny Kauff in 1917 (New York Giants), Ross Youngs in 1923 (New York Giants), and Joe Dugan… Read more »

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
8 years ago

I might be selling Bentley short by saying he had a ‘decent’ bat. A lot of people think he could have been a very good, maybe even a great MLB hitter after his superstar run in the International League, but McGraw bought him from the Orioles to be a pitcher, as he already had a loaded infield. He hit fabulously in a small sample size in 1923, fell off in 1924, and rebounded a bit in 1925, but he never really got a chance to be an everyday MLB hitter, and arm problems quickly retired him by age 32.

T-Bone
T-Bone
8 years ago

Baseballmusings.com posted this story about Edison Volquez:

The father of Edinson Volquez, the starting pitcher for the Kansas City Royals in Game 1 of the World Series, died Tuesday in the Dominican Republic, a family source told ESPNdeportes.com.

The source said Daniel Volquez, 63, died of heart disease complications. The pitcher heard the news while on his way to Kauffman Stadium.

Doug
Doug
8 years ago

Game 1 is the first extra-inning post-season game to have the decisions go to two pitchers aged 36 or older. Colon is the oldest pitcher, starter or reliever, to lose a WS game.

Doug Sussman
Doug Sussman
8 years ago

You were quite on target for Game 1. Looking forward to your game by game analysis.

Kahuna Tuna
Kahuna Tuna
8 years ago

I think it was very touching for the Mets to offer that tribute to their 1962 team in the bottom of the first inning of Game 1. Harvey grooving a first-pitch strike to a (white-hot) notorious first-pitch hitter, Céspedes and Conforto playing Escobar’s drive like first-year expansion scrubs—it might be the closest we’ll ever come to seeing the original Amazin’s!

All facetiousness aside, it should be a fun Series.

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
8 years ago

I have to admit, when you first posted this piece, I thought the idea that Alcides Escobar would be great in the WS after a great ALCS was preposterous. Whoops. Alcides for WS MVP!