This is why it’s so much harder managing pitchers in the NL

The biggest impact the designated hitter has on the game is detaching the link between a pitcher’s performance and what his own team is doing on offense. In the NL, without the DH, it’s not uncommon for a manager to have to decide whether to pinch-hit for a pitcher who comes to bat in a key situation.

Here are the 2011 batters with the highest average Leverage Index (which is basically a measure of how much game hinges on the plate appearance, with 1.0 being average.)

Rk Player aLI Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SH GDP BA OPS Pos
1 Scott Proctor 3.220 ATL 31 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 *1
2 Jose Arredondo 2.560 CIN 53 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .500 1.000 *1
3 Chad Reineke 2.120 CIN 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 .000 .000 /*1
4 David Herndon 2.098 PHI 45 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 .000 .000 *1
5 Brandon Moss 2.072 PHI 5 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 .000 .000 /9
6 Adron Chambers 2.054 STL 18 8 8 2 3 0 1 0 4 0 1 0 0 .375 1.000 /789
7 Jeremy Affeldt 2.035 SFG 67 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 .000 .500 *1
8 Carlos Fisher 1.995 CIN 17 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .000 .000 *1
9 Zach Stewart 1.990 TOT 14 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 .000 .000 *1
10 Cristhian Martinez 1.920 ATL 46 8 6 0 2 1 0 0 2 0 1 2 0 .333 .833 *1
11 CC Sabathia 1.907 NYY 33 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .000 .000 *1
12 Joel Pineiro 1.877 LAA 27 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 .000 .000 *1
13 Joseph Thurston 1.835 FLA 1 4 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .250 .500 /*4
14 Felipe Paulino 1.770 TOT 39 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 3 0 .000 .000 *1
15 Kyle Davies 1.750 KCR 13 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .000 .000 *1
16 J.C. Boscan 1.737 ATL 4 9 9 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 .333 .667 /*2
17 D.J. Carrasco 1.700 NYM 42 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 *1
18 Javier Lopez 1.680 SFG 70 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .000 .000 *1
19 Juan Castro 1.679 LAD 7 15 14 2 4 0 0 0 1 1 4 0 0 .286 .619 /*45
20 Mike Rivera 1.675 MIL 1 6 6 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .333 .667 /*2
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/2/2012.

The vast majority of these guys are pitchers, and most of them were starters who the manager preferred to keep in the game. He’d probably have liked to use a pinch-hitter, but liked his chances even less if he had to replace his pitcher.

Obviously, the above list has no lower limit for plate appearances and many of the samples are ridiculously small.

If we instead apply a lower limit of 100 plate appearances, we get a lot of guys who specialized in coming off the bench in big situations:

Rk Player aLI PA Tm G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Jorge Cantu 1.321 155 SDP 57 144 8 28 4 0 3 16 7 28 .194 .232 .285 .517 35/4
2 Jason Giambi 1.321 152 COL 64 131 20 34 6 0 13 32 17 45 .260 .355 .603 .958 3/D
3 Brooks Conrad 1.267 122 ATL 92 103 11 23 5 0 4 13 15 41 .223 .325 .388 .713 4/53
4 Matt Downs 1.258 222 HOU 106 199 29 55 18 0 10 41 17 47 .276 .347 .518 .864 453/96
5 Ivan Rodriguez 1.252 137 WSN 44 124 14 27 7 0 2 19 10 28 .218 .281 .323 .604 *2/3
6 Adam LaRoche 1.245 177 WSN 43 151 15 26 4 0 3 15 25 37 .172 .288 .258 .546 *3
7 Donnie Murphy 1.231 100 FLA 36 92 10 17 4 1 2 9 4 21 .185 .240 .315 .555 *65/4
8 Steve Pearce 1.231 105 PIT 50 94 8 19 2 0 1 10 7 21 .202 .260 .255 .515 35/9
9 Ross Gload 1.222 116 PHI 93 113 3 29 8 0 0 8 3 23 .257 .276 .327 .603 3/9D
10 Greg Dobbs 1.209 439 FLA 134 411 38 113 23 0 8 49 22 83 .275 .311 .389 .701 *5/397D
11 Omar Vizquel 1.200 182 CHW 58 167 18 42 7 1 0 8 9 18 .251 .287 .305 .592 *54/6D3
12 Luis Rodriguez 1.192 139 SEA 44 117 10 23 10 0 2 14 16 21 .197 .299 .333 .633 *65/43
13 Ike Davis 1.191 149 NYM 36 129 20 39 8 1 7 25 17 31 .302 .383 .543 .925 *3
14 Scott Rolen 1.190 269 CIN 65 252 31 61 20 2 5 36 10 36 .242 .279 .397 .676 *5
15 Brian Bogusevic 1.180 182 HOU 87 164 22 47 14 1 4 15 15 40 .287 .348 .457 .805 97
16 Ryan Ludwick 1.180 553 TOT 139 490 56 116 23 0 13 75 51 124 .237 .310 .363 .674 *79/D
17 Brad Hawpe 1.179 216 SDP 62 195 19 45 10 0 4 19 19 68 .231 .301 .344 .645 *3/9D
18 Eric Patterson 1.175 103 SDP 47 89 8 16 2 1 2 8 12 22 .180 .272 .292 .564 4/897
19 Ezequiel Carrera 1.166 226 CLE 68 202 27 49 8 3 0 14 16 35 .243 .301 .312 .613 *8/79D
20 Jay Bruce 1.163 664 CIN 157 585 84 150 27 2 32 97 71 158 .256 .341 .474 .814 *9
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/2/2012.

Two guys really stick out for me—Jason Giambi, who had his best season in a long time (from a percentages basis only, since he didn’t play all that much) and Ike Davis, who was playing full-time until he got hurt, and still produced at a high level despite batting in high LI situations a lot of the time.

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Max
Max
12 years ago

I have my fingers crossed that Ike Davis is healthy, because with all the bitching and moaning for how terrible the Mets are/are going to be, he looked like an absolute beast in the making the last couple years. If he is healthy, he will almost be worth watching the games for. Almost. (and much like his original injury, I am sure the Mets will find away to screw it up, like trading him for John Lackey or something.)

Ed
Ed
12 years ago

I know Bill James would definitely disagree with you. He wrote about this (I think) in one of his abstracts. He found that in the NL, taking out a pitcher is basically an easy/automatic decision based on what’s going on when they come to bat. In the AL, on the other hand, the manager actually has to pay attention to how the pitcher is throwing, see if they struggling, fatigued, etc.

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  Andy

Gotcha. Thanks for the clarification. I think this is one of the reasons I prefer the AL…pitchers actually get to pitch and don’t get pulled from the game due to something that has nothing to do with their pitching.

vivaeljason
vivaeljason
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

If I recall right, Jim Leyland has said it’s significantly easier to manage substitution in the NL due to the automatic nature of subbing the pitcher.

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  vivaeljason

Yep. He said it was more difficult in the AL, but more fun in the NL.

http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2011/05/detroit_tigers_manager_jim_ley_12.html

kds
kds
12 years ago

Andy, it has been argued, especially by Mitchel Lichtman, (MGL at insidethebook blog), that managers routinely get this wrong by leaving in the starter too long. Not only is there the obvious gain at bat, but there is frequently a gain in removing the starter, as a reliever is likely to be as good, or close to it. Obviously other things matter, how much has the bullpen been used recently, who is coming up for the other team, (can a platoon advantage be leveraged). Generally a starter the 3rd or 4th time through the order is not better than a… Read more »

Doug
Doug
12 years ago

Jay Bruce’s inclusion here is interesting – only guy on the list (albeit the last guy on the list) who had a full season with 600+ PAs. Don’t know whether his nice counting stats are because he got a lot of important ABs, or because he came through in those opportunities. I’m guessing more the former, based on his Situational Wins Added, which at 0.7 is way behind the leaders (Jose Bautista, followed by the usual suspects) who are above 6.

Steven
Steven
12 years ago

The DH “experiment” should have ended when the last of the original set of injury-hobbled sluggers (Cepeda, Carty, Tommy Davis, Horton,) retired. Two separate sets of rules for the same sport is silly. Unfortunately, since inter-league play isn’t going away, I think universal use of the DH is going to happen soon. Thanks a lot Bud.

Thomas
Thomas
12 years ago

Am I the only one who thinks Juan Castro probably wouldn’t be in the top 10 hitters if you ranked the 20 players in the first list given?

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
12 years ago
Reply to  Thomas

I think it would be a very close call.

Juan Castro – career 55 OPS+

CC Sabathia – career 64 OPS+

Somehow, Juan Castro conned teams into giving him almost 3,000 PAs even though he has a career -2.8 dWAR and a bat worthy of Ray Oyler.

Kahuna Tuna
Kahuna Tuna
12 years ago

According to a little-known MLB rule, there has to be at least one player from Los Mochis, Mexico in the majors each year. Teddy Higuera kept MLB in compliance until 1994, when his career ended abruptly due to arm trouble. We’ve been stuck with Castro ever since.

Luis Gomez
Luis Gomez
12 years ago
Reply to  Kahuna Tuna

You’re right, and don’t forget about Dennys Reyes, he is from Higuera de Zaragoza, a small town just outside los Mochis but it belongs to the los Mochis County.

Kahuna Tuna
Kahuna Tuna
12 years ago

Outfielder and 2007 draftee Adron Chambers (#6 on Andy’s first list) is the first 38th-round pick to make the majors since Cubs pitcher and 2002 draftee Randy Wells . . . who was drafted as a catcher.

DaveR
DaveR
12 years ago

Wow! Jorge Cantu. What happened?

Kahuna Tuna
Kahuna Tuna
12 years ago
Reply to  DaveR

Cantú’s #1 comp is Garrett Atkins. Same question. (At least Cantú is still playing professionally.)