Strand Leaders: The best when you’re in a mess

As a followup to this post, I thought I’d run a few tables of leaders at stranding inherited runners in recent years and all-time.

Note that B-R gives the percentage of inherited runners that scored (IS%). To convert IS% into the more commonly discussed Strand Rate, simply subtract from 100%.

 

2011 Strand Leaders (min. 20 inherited runners and IP >= 0.9 * Games)

Rk Player IS% IR SO/9 SO/BB WPA IP G Year Age Tm GF SV BB SO ERA+ HR
1 Kenley Jansen 4.76% 21 16.10 3.69 1.384 53.2 51 2011 23 LAD 13 5 26 96 131 3
2 Greg Holland 6.06% 33 11.10 3.89 3.103 60.0 46 2011 25 KCR 15 4 19 74 228 3
3 Al Alburquerque 9.68% 31 13.92 2.31 1.675 43.1 41 2011 25 DET 11 0 29 67 220 0
4 Antonio Bastardo 12.50% 32 10.86 2.69 2.605 58.0 64 2011 25 PHI 15 8 26 70 147 6
5 Louis Coleman 12.82% 39 9.65 2.46 0.875 59.2 48 2011 25 KCR 11 1 26 64 143 9
6 Fernando Rodriguez 14.29% 21 9.80 1.90 1.038 52.1 47 2011 27 HOU 11 0 30 57 96 6
7 Daniel Bard 14.71% 34 9.12 3.08 1.295 73.0 70 2011 26 BOS 10 1 24 74 128 5
8 Koji Uehara 16.00% 25 11.77 9.44 2.254 65.0 65 2011 36 TOT 22 0 9 85 181 11
9 Sam LeCure 17.86% 28 8.46 3.48 0.673 77.2 43 2011 27 CIN 7 0 21 73 106 10
10 Chris Sale 18.42% 38 10.01 2.93 3.633 71.0 58 2011 22 CHW 17 8 27 79 152 6
11 Tony Watson 18.52% 27 8.12 1.85 0.489 41.0 43 2011 26 PIT 6 0 20 37 98 6
12 Daniel McCutchen 18.60% 43 5.00 1.42 1.033 84.2 73 2011 28 PIT 15 0 33 47 103 7
13 Cory Wade 20.00% 25 6.81 3.75 0.802 39.2 40 2011 28 NYY 8 0 8 30 218 5
14 Tyler Clippard 21.74% 46 10.60 4.00 5.227 88.1 72 2011 26 WSN 8 0 26 104 211 11
15 David Robertson 22.73% 44 13.50 2.86 4.195 66.2 70 2011 26 NYY 8 1 35 100 410 1
16 Will Ohman 23.08% 52 9.11 3.18 -0.124 53.1 59 2011 33 CHW 15 0 17 54 100 8
17 D.J. Carrasco 23.08% 26 4.93 1.69 -1.175 49.1 42 2011 34 NYM 15 0 16 27 62 7
18 Tim Collins 23.81% 42 8.06 1.25 0.407 67.0 68 2011 21 KCR 18 0 48 60 113 5
19 Francisco Rodriguez 23.81% 21 9.92 3.04 1.908 71.2 73 2011 29 TOT 36 23 26 79 145 4
20 Cory Luebke 24.00% 25 9.92 3.50 0.060 139.2 46 2011 26 SDP 3 0 44 154 108 12
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/9/2012.

Kenley Jansen’s insane K rate — the highest ever for 50+ innings (or 25+ IP, for that matter) — make him ideally suited to working around inherited runners. Jansen whiffed his first batter in 29 of 51 chances (57%), while allowing 3 hits in 43 AB (.070). Yet he was used to start the inning in almost 3/4 of his games. Meanwhile, 3 Dodger relievers inherited at least 30 runners, with a collective 38% IS% (48 of 125). Not surprisingly, 2 of the 3 have subpar SO rates — Mike MacDougal and Matt Guerrier — while Scott Elbert is a run-of-the-mill LOOGY.

Nice work by the Royals rookies Holland and Coleman, and of course Al Alburquerque (sigh). Daniel McCutchen is unlikely to repeat that IS% without more Ks; he did get a lot of DPs but isn’t actually a ground-ball pitcher. Odd that D.J. Carrasco did well with inherited runners, yet still stank over all (the only negative WPA on the list).

 

Top 1-Year Strand Rates of the Past 10 Years (min. 30 inherited runners and IP >= Games)

Rk Player IS% IR SO/9 SO/BB WPA IP G Year Age Tm GF SV SO ERA+ HR
1 Wilton Lopez 3.03% 33 6.72 10.00 0.927 67.0 68 2010 26 HOU 14 1 50 132 4
2 B.J. Ryan 3.45% 29 10.70 4.30 4.727 72.1 65 2006 30 TOR 57 38 86 335 3
3 Jose Veras 3.85% 26 10.13 1.86 0.131 48.0 48 2010 29 FLA 11 0 54 112 5
4 Kenley Jansen 4.76% 21 16.10 3.69 1.384 53.2 51 2011 23 LAD 13 5 96 131 3
5 Juan Rincon 5.00% 20 8.59 1.35 0.237 36.2 33 2009 30 TOT 7 0 35 69 4
6 Armando Almanza 5.00% 20 8.76 1.96 -0.798 50.1 51 2003 30 FLA 15 0 49 70 10
7 Justin Speier 5.71% 35 6.79 2.47 1.317 62.1 63 2002 28 COL 7 1 47 111 9
8 Greg Holland 6.06% 33 11.10 3.89 3.103 60.0 46 2011 25 KCR 15 4 74 228 3
9 Brad Lidge 6.67% 30 14.93 5.23 5.759 94.2 80 2004 27 HOU 44 29 157 230 8
10 Frank Francisco 6.82% 44 7.43 1.29 1.037 59.1 59 2007 27 TEX 16 0 49 101 3
11 Braden Looper 7.14% 28 5.76 1.96 2.324 86.0 78 2002 27 FLA 40 13 55 129 8
12 Joaquin Benoit 8.70% 23 11.19 6.82 1.959 60.1 63 2010 32 TBR 16 1 75 295 6
13 Willie Eyre 8.70% 23 5.56 1.31 -1.698 68.0 33 2007 28 TEX 10 1 42 89 8
14 Rafael Betancourt 9.09% 33 9.08 8.89 5.380 79.1 68 2007 32 CLE 15 3 80 307 4
15 Joe Borowski 9.52% 21 8.69 3.47 3.068 68.1 68 2003 32 CHC 59 33 66 165 5
16 Trevor Hoffman 9.52% 21 10.47 3.83 1.040 59.1 61 2002 34 SDP 52 38 69 138 2
17 Al Alburquerque 9.68% 31 13.92 2.31 1.675 43.1 41 2011 25 DET 11 0 67 220 0
18 Hong-Chih Kuo 10.00% 20 10.80 4.57 1.564 80.0 42 2008 26 LAD 10 1 96 196 4
19 John Halama 10.00% 20 4.22 1.42 -1.114 108.2 35 2003 31 OAK 4 0 51 105 18
20 Pat Neshek 10.34% 29 12.89 8.83 1.092 37.0 32 2006 25 MIN 3 0 53 206 6
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/9/2012.

Lidge’s 14.9 SO/9 is the record for 90+ IP. A lot of other high K rates here, and the exceptions are mostly guys that didn’t last. Are we sensing a trend?

 

Top Combined Strand Rates for the Past 10 Years (min. 100 inherited runners and IP >= 0.9 * Games)

Rk Player IS% IR SO/9 SO/BB WPA IP G From To Age GF SV BB SO ERA+ HR
1 Brian Wilson 17.65% 119 9.57 2.41 9.485 318.0 313 2006 2011 24-29 236 170 140 338 132 17
2 Frank Francisco 18.06% 144 9.92 2.54 5.428 334.0 331 2004 2011 24-31 143 49 145 368 123 34
3 Carlos Marmol 20.00% 165 11.74 2.00 10.101 459.1 391 2006 2011 23-28 189 95 300 599 132 35
4 Jose Veras 21.00% 100 9.06 1.89 0.400 247.1 255 2006 2011 25-30 71 4 132 249 104 28
5 Craig Breslow 21.69% 189 7.58 2.01 1.190 279.0 295 2005 2011 24-30 61 6 117 235 139 23
6 Hong-Chih Kuo 22.00% 100 10.62 2.72 4.912 292.1 218 2005 2011 23-29 40 13 127 345 112 18
7 Brendan Donnelly 22.06% 204 8.62 2.40 8.853 385.1 386 2002 2010 30-38 97 6 154 369 137 35
8 Jonathan Papelbon 22.22% 117 10.67 4.43 20.946 429.1 396 2005 2011 24-30 334 219 115 509 197 31
9 B.J. Ryan 22.57% 226 10.72 2.64 10.364 420.2 443 2002 2009 26-33 228 115 190 501 148 29
10 Rafael Perez 22.86% 210 7.39 2.34 2.940 321.1 330 2006 2011 24-29 62 3 113 264 116 25
11 Mark Lowe 23.01% 113 8.10 2.01 -0.728 223.1 217 2006 2011 23-28 56 5 100 201 108 23
12 Heath Bell 23.28% 116 9.22 3.07 13.618 482.0 435 2004 2011 26-33 214 134 161 494 127 30
13 Sean Marshall 23.44% 128 7.45 2.30 4.531 530.0 292 2006 2011 23-28 50 7 191 439 113 56
14 Brad Lidge 23.58% 123 11.95 2.86 14.076 594.0 592 2002 2011 25-34 364 223 276 789 126 56
15 Jason Isringhausen 23.68% 114 8.23 2.08 7.732 462.2 463 2002 2011 29-38 351 224 203 423 137 36
16 Daniel Bard 23.85% 109 9.73 2.80 4.929 197.0 192 2009 2011 24-26 34 5 76 213 154 16
17 Pat Neshek 24.56% 114 9.97 2.55 2.884 154.1 157 2006 2011 25-30 42 0 67 171 132 20
18 Justin Speier 24.69% 243 7.83 2.66 2.384 480.2 474 2002 2009 28-35 150 17 157 418 121 71
19 Joaquin Benoit 24.71% 174 8.55 2.19 3.519 707.2 401 2002 2011 24-33 77 11 307 672 108 85
20 Keith Foulke 24.75% 101 7.66 3.70 7.122 373.2 327 2002 2008 29-35 225 102 86 318 144 49
21 Chad Gaudin 24.79% 117 7.09 1.67 -1.368 670.0 268 2003 2011 20-28 65 2 316 528 92 80
22 Brian Fuentes 25.00% 164 9.52 2.57 11.370 571.2 608 2002 2011 26-35 364 199 235 605 137 56
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/9/2012.

We finally found something that Mariano Rivera isn’t great at; his 32% IS% for the past 10 years is just average, and his career rate is 29%. (Different story in the postseason, though.)

 

Top Career Strand Rates of All-Time (min. 100 inherited runners and IP >= 0.9 * Games; stats available since 1950)

Rk Player IS% IR SO/9 SO/BB WPA IP G From To Age GF SV BB SO ERA+ HR
1 Brian Wilson 17.65% 119 9.57 2.41 9.485 318.0 313 2006 2011 24-29 236 170 140 338 132 17
2 Frank Francisco 18.06% 144 9.92 2.54 5.428 334.0 331 2004 2011 24-31 143 49 145 368 123 34
3 Steve Wilson 19.43% 175 6.57 1.94 -3.834 345.1 205 1988 1993 23-28 42 6 130 252 88 33
4 Carlos Marmol 20.00% 165 11.74 2.00 10.101 459.1 391 2006 2011 23-28 189 95 300 599 132 35
5 Trevor Hoffman 20.23% 346 9.36 3.69 34.320 1089.1 1035 1993 2010 25-42 856 601 307 1133 141 100
6 Russ Swan 20.29% 138 3.65 0.87 -0.621 266.2 168 1989 1994 25-30 45 11 124 108 84 26
7 Joe Klink 20.69% 145 5.14 1.25 1.155 164.2 176 1987 1996 25-34 45 3 75 94 96 10
8 Jose Veras 21.00% 100 9.06 1.89 0.400 247.1 255 2006 2011 25-30 71 4 132 249 104 28
9 Craig Breslow 21.69% 189 7.58 2.01 1.190 279.0 295 2005 2011 24-30 61 6 117 235 139 23
10 Scott Eyre 21.97% 437 7.44 1.62 2.980 649.1 617 1997 2009 25-37 107 4 332 537 107 83
11 Hong-Chih Kuo 22.00% 100 10.62 2.72 4.912 292.1 218 2005 2011 23-29 40 13 127 345 112 18
12 Brendan Donnelly 22.06% 204 8.62 2.40 8.853 385.1 386 2002 2010 30-38 97 6 154 369 137 35
13 Jonathan Papelbon 22.22% 117 10.67 4.43 20.946 429.1 396 2005 2011 24-30 334 219 115 509 197 31
14 Pep Harris 22.58% 124 5.76 1.41 2.807 172.0 121 1996 1998 23-25 30 0 78 110 121 18
15 Kevin Hickey 22.67% 247 4.56 1.17 0.693 232.2 231 1981 1991 25-35 79 17 101 118 100 21
16 Rafael Perez 22.86% 210 7.39 2.34 2.940 321.1 330 2006 2011 24-29 62 3 113 264 116 25
17 Randy Myers 22.94% 401 8.99 2.23 19.536 884.2 728 1985 1998 22-35 548 347 396 884 123 69
18 Mark Lowe 23.01% 113 8.10 2.01 -0.728 223.1 217 2006 2011 23-28 56 5 100 201 108 23
19 John Rocker 23.01% 113 11.70 2.02 -0.220 255.1 280 1998 2003 23-28 176 88 164 332 132 23
20 Roger Mason 23.08% 130 6.18 1.78 0.636 416.1 232 1984 1994 26-36 76 13 161 286 95 42
21 Heath Bell 23.28% 116 9.22 3.07 13.618 482.0 435 2004 2011 26-33 214 134 161 494 127 30
22 Sean Marshall 23.44% 128 7.45 2.30 4.531 530.0 292 2006 2011 23-28 50 7 191 439 113 56
23 Brad Lidge 23.58% 123 11.95 2.86 14.076 594.0 592 2002 2011 25-34 364 223 276 789 126 56
24 Daniel Bard 23.85% 109 9.73 2.80 4.929 197.0 192 2009 2011 24-26 34 5 76 213 154 16
25 Keith Foulke 24.00% 225 8.21 3.70 20.564 786.2 619 1997 2008 24-35 406 191 194 718 140 94
Rk Player IS% IR SO/9 SO/BB WPA IP G From To Age GF SV BB SO ERA+ HR
26 Dennis Powell 24.07% 162 5.27 1.25 -2.924 339.2 207 1985 1993 21-29 42 3 159 199 81 35
27 Billy Pierce 24.24% 132 5.45 1.85 37.295 3069.2 526 1950 1964 23-37 67 32 1005 1858 122 267
28 Dave Koslo 24.30% 107 3.11 1.07 2.350 646.0 173 1950 1955 30-35 62 14 208 223 108 56
29 Stan Thomas 24.53% 106 4.17 1.12 -2.614 265.1 111 1974 1977 24-27 42 9 110 123 101 16
30 Pat Neshek 24.56% 114 9.97 2.55 2.884 154.1 157 2006 2011 25-30 42 0 67 171 132 20
31 Jerry Gleaton 24.57% 293 5.33 1.33 1.996 447.1 307 1979 1992 21-34 123 26 199 265 97 40
32 Ray Narleski 24.70% 166 5.82 1.36 8.134 702.0 266 1954 1959 25-30 132 58 335 454 107 81
33 Joaquin Benoit 24.71% 174 8.54 2.18 3.236 712.2 402 2001 2011 23-33 77 11 310 676 107 88
34 Chad Gaudin 24.79% 117 7.09 1.67 -1.368 670.0 268 2003 2011 20-28 65 2 316 528 92 80
35 Scott Bankhead 24.79% 117 6.13 2.12 2.835 901.0 267 1986 1995 22-31 30 1 289 614 103 111
36 Jesse Orosco 24.83% 1051 8.19 2.03 12.990 1295.1 1252 1979 2003 22-46 501 144 581 1179 126 113
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/9/2012.

I just had to run the list down through Jesse Orosco, who inherited more runners than anyone in history and did a pretty good job with them. In fact, let’s close with a list of:

 

Most Inherited Runners of All-Time (stats available since 1950)

Rk Player IR IS% SO/9 SO/BB WPA IP G From To Age GF SV BB SO ERA+ HR
1 Jesse Orosco 1051 24.83% 8.19 2.03 12.990 1295.1 1252 1979 2003 22-46 501 144 581 1179 126 113
2 Sparky Lyle 970 34.02% 5.65 1.81 14.538 1390.1 899 1967 1982 22-37 634 238 481 873 128 84
3 Tom Burgmeier 852 29.23% 4.18 1.52 6.821 1258.2 745 1968 1984 24-40 370 102 384 584 119 94
4 Rich Gossage 832 33.29% 7.47 2.05 32.623 1809.1 1002 1972 1994 20-42 681 310 732 1502 126 119
5 Lindy McDaniel 823 35.84% 5.73 2.18 9.112 2139.1 987 1955 1975 19-39 577 172 623 1361 110 172
6 Dan Plesac 818 27.14% 8.74 2.59 2.419 1072.0 1064 1986 2003 24-41 422 158 402 1041 118 105
7 Mike Stanton 801 28.59% 7.23 2.13 10.408 1114.0 1178 1989 2007 22-40 363 84 420 895 113 93
8 Rollie Fingers 783 28.74% 6.87 2.64 16.392 1701.1 944 1968 1985 21-38 709 341 492 1299 120 123
9 Kent Tekulve 771 28.02% 4.88 1.59 14.305 1436.2 1050 1974 1989 27-42 638 184 491 779 132 63
10 Mike Myers 755 25.30% 7.13 1.68 1.395 541.2 883 1995 2007 26-38 195 14 256 429 112 58
11 Darold Knowles 695 27.63% 5.61 1.42 1.639 1092.0 765 1965 1980 23-38 417 143 480 681 113 65
12 Hoyt Wilhelm 690 35.22% 6.43 2.07 30.140 2254.1 1070 1952 1972 29-49 651 227 778 1610 147 150
13 Paul Assenmacher 688 26.74% 8.49 2.56 3.237 855.2 884 1986 1999 25-38 275 56 315 807 118 73
14 Michael Jackson 659 31.56% 7.62 2.17 16.030 1188.1 1005 1986 2004 21-39 422 142 464 1006 126 127
15 Gene Garber 647 35.70% 5.60 2.11 0.783 1510.0 931 1969 1988 21-40 609 218 445 940 117 123
16 Tippy Martinez 646 28.17% 6.82 1.49 12.108 834.0 546 1974 1988 24-38 320 115 425 632 112 53
17 Don McMahon 644 35.56% 6.89 1.73 7.303 1310.2 874 1957 1974 27-44 506 153 579 1003 120 104
18 Ron Perranoski 632 32.91% 5.26 1.47 11.990 1174.2 737 1961 1973 25-37 458 179 468 687 124 50
19 Grant Jackson 630 28.73% 5.89 1.74 3.655 1358.2 692 1965 1982 22-39 291 79 511 889 105 109
20 Dave LaRoche 628 29.14% 7.02 1.78 9.700 1049.1 647 1970 1983 22-35 381 126 459 819 106 94
21 Roy Face 628 34.71% 5.74 2.42 5.122 1375.0 848 1953 1969 25-41 574 193 362 877 109 141
22 Buddy Groom 621 26.09% 6.05 1.90 2.734 734.2 786 1992 2005 26-39 195 27 260 494 98 73
23 Paul Lindblad 620 29.19% 4.98 1.75 2.344 1213.2 655 1965 1978 23-36 258 64 384 671 105 112
24 Bob McClure 612 27.61% 5.45 1.41 1.497 1158.2 698 1975 1993 23-41 233 52 497 701 102 104
25 Jeff Nelson 597 27.81% 9.51 1.94 -0.957 784.2 798 1992 2006 25-39 237 33 428 829 133 55
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/9/2012.

I’m a little surprised that the Goose had an ordinary strand rate. But then, he also added a lot of value after the mess was gone, averaging almost 2 IP per game.

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Hartvig
Hartvig
12 years ago

Who would have thought Mike Myers would rank so high. I assume that there were a number of 1 batter appearances involved in his case.

CursedClevelander
CursedClevelander
12 years ago

He doesn’t qualify because of the IP per G qualifier, but Ricardo Rincon was historically good with Inherited Runners. He inherited 422 in his career, and has a career IS% of 18.96 (or, to say it another way, a career Strand Rate of 81.06).

From what I can see, no one else is particularly close to him. The only pitchers with over 100 IR and a better IS% are Frank Francisco (18.06%), Brian Wilson (17.65%) and Jesse Carlson (17%), but none of them have anywhere near Rincon’s 422 IR (they have 144, 119 and 100, respectively).

Doug
Doug
12 years ago

Surprised Frank Francisco shows so well here, and allowed ed only 1 IR to score last year. It seemed a lot worse, as evidenced by his 4 blown saves in only 21 opportunities in 2011.

Dr. Remulak
Dr. Remulak
12 years ago

Old school relievers on the “most inherited runners — career” list, indicative of an era when closers would pitch 1 2/3, 2 1/3, etc. for the save. Now most simply come in at the start of the ninth.

kzuke
kzuke
12 years ago

Is there a way to weigh the inherited runners by the base that they’re on? Should a runner that scores from third with zero outs count as the same as a runner that scores from first with two outs?

topper009
topper009
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

an inherited runner that scores is credited to the previous pitcher, but is the WPA deduction given to the current pitcher? Seems inconsistent?

topper009
topper009
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Not sure about that, in game 2 of the World Series this year, Arthur Rhodes came in to face 1 hitter and allowed a SF for -0.07 WPA. Since it was earned to the previous pitcher Rhodes should have a WPA of 0 for the game correct? But instead he has the 0.07 from the SF.

deal
12 years ago

How does Carlos Marmol rank so high? Feels like everytime the cubs are on TV he is blowing up. Is this just a case of a guy that can pitch well in the 8th and can’t in the 9th or is he a guy that was really good 3 years ago and just hasn’t pitched well recently. Or are my eyes deceiveing me and I am falling for the small sample size dilemma?

topper009
topper009
12 years ago
Reply to  deal

This doesn’t count runners he allowed to reach himself who then scored. Don’t worry, Marmol still sucks, the Cubs will continue to blow late leads and the sun will rise tomorrow.

PhilM
PhilM
12 years ago

Great to see Billy Pierce on the all-time strand list, who was John Smoltz before there was a John Smoltz — but only for two years. I always wondered if he could have had an Eckersley-type career and a HOF ticket if the “closer” mentality had appeared in the 60s.

Tmckelv
Tmckelv
12 years ago

You mention Mariano Rivera’s average career strand rate. I think over the years his overall use (like most closers) has been starting the 9th inning unless there was a real mess in the 8th inning.

Is there a statistic for inherited runners stranded that takes base-out situations into consideration (I guess like a relief pitcher’s equivalent to RE24).

Tmckelv
Tmckelv
12 years ago
Reply to  Tmckelv

Sorry, I see by question about base-out situation was asked earlier. I must have missed it.

Christopher
Christopher
12 years ago

I misunderstood the topic! I was expecting a table of batters who left runners stranded and I was eager to see just how far up the chart Jayson Werth placed!

Dr. Remulak
Dr. Remulak
12 years ago

Brian Wilson career WHIP >1.30 yet #1 in strand rate. Pretty impressive with runners on base. Fear the beard.

Daniel
Daniel
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

B-R defines IS% as follows:
> IS% — Inherited Score Percentage
> Percentage of runners on base when pitcher entered the game who subsequently scored.
> These runners show up in the previous pitcher’s ERA.

So I don’t see that it would be easier for a LOOGY to get credit for stranding a baserunner, although I agree it’s a bit more random.
Unless you think that LOOGYs are more likely to come in with 2 outs than other relievers?

Daniel
Daniel
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Hmm, you’re right. The wording “subsequently” made me think it was deliberate, but I guess not.

I took a look at one more game to check:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA201109212.shtml
Cesar Ramos came in with 2 runners on, issued an intentional walk, and then left, with 2 IR but 0 IS!