Memories … don’t trust ’em! |

From Tim Kurkjian’s appreciation of Gary Carter:

“People ask me who is the best catcher I ever threw to, and the answer is always Gary Carter,” said Ed Lynch, who pitched for the Mets when Carter was with the team. “I don’t say that because he was a great caller of games, or that he blocked every ball in the dirt, or that he caught every game. I say that because every game I pitched, he hit a three-run homer.”

Now, that’s obvious hyperbole; he doesn’t mean that Carter hit a 3-run HR literally every game that Lynch pitched. But I had to chuckle on discovering that Carter never hit a 3-run HR or grand slam in a game that Lynch pitched.

Still, Lynch’s memory could be true in spirit, if Carter hit a lot of home runs or drove in a lot of key runs behind Lynch. And Lynch has a reputation as a pretty sharp guy; he stayed in the game after his playing days were done, serving in various roles, including Cubs GM from 1995-2000. He’s only 55. So when he says that Carter hit great when Lynch pitched, shouldn’t we be able to trust that?

It’s easy to check, since Carter and Lynch were teammates only in 1985 and one game in ’86. And here’s what we find from their game logs:

Carter played in 30 games that Lynch pitched (see table below) — 29 in 1985 and 1 in ’86.
He batted .279 (31 for 111) with 4 HRs and 17 RBI, slugging .414 — all below his 1985 norms.
Had he met those norms in Lynch’s games, he would have hit 6 HRs and driven in 20, with a .281 BA and .488 SLG.
His biggest offensive game in support of Lynch — the game to which Kurkjian connects the quote — was August 11, 1985, with a pair of go-ahead, 2-run HRs in a 6-2 win, putting the Mets a game ahead of the Cards in their see-saw battle for the division. His Win Probability Added was 0.379 in that game, his highest WPA in support of Lynch.
The sum of Carter’s other Lynch-game WPAs was negative, with just one other WPA over 0.200. His combined WPA in Lynch games projects to 2.140 for a full season, well below his actual ’85 total of 3.280.

In Lynch’s defense: While Gary Carter’s offensive production on his behalf was not up to Carter’s own standard, it was well above what most catchers could do, and miles above what Lynch had seen from his ’84 backstops, who combined for 2 HRs all year.

But the quote still serves as a reminder that personal recollections often prove unreliable, and are no basis for player evaluation.

One last note: Carter hit 32 HRs in ’85, and hit at least one in support of eight different Mets starters. Here’s the breakdown, in order of HRs per start:

McDowell, 1 HR in 2 starts — 0.50 HR per start
Aguilera, 7 HR in 19 starts — 0.37 HR per start
Berenyi, 1 HR in 3 starts — 0.33 HR per start
Schiraldi, 1 HR in 4 starts — 0.25 HR per start
Gooden, 7 HR in 35 starts — 0.20 HR per start
Fernandez, 5 HR in 26 starts — 0.19 HR per start
Darling, 6 HR in 35 starts — 0.17 HR per start
Lynch, 4 HR in 29 starts — 0.14 HR per start

Lynch was favored by a Carter home run less often than any other Mets starter. Naturally.

P.S. Here is Carter’s game log for games that Lynch pitched:

1985	Opp	Rslt	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	GDP	BOP	WPA	RE24	Pos
Apr 13	CIN	W,2-1	4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	-0.163	-0.92	C
Apr 15	PIT	L,1-4	4	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	0.073	0.60	C
Apr 20	PHI	L,6-7	4	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	4	-0.036	-1.07	C
Apr 23	STL	L,3-8	4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	-0.036	-0.03	C
Apr 27	PIT	L,2-3	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	0.094	0.59	C
May	Opp	Rslt	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	GDP	BOP	WPA	RE24	Pos
May 3	CIN	W,9-4	5	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	-0.022	-0.42	C
May 8	ATL	W,4-0	4	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	0.068	0.91	C
May 13	ATL	L,0-1	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	-0.174	-0.88	C
May 18	SFG	L,2-8	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	-0.150	-1.08	C
May 24	LAD	L,3-4	4	4	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	0.113	1.01	C
May 29	SFG	W,4-3	4	3	1	2	1	0	0	2	1	0	4	0.338	1.81	C
June	Opp	Rslt	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	GDP	BOP	WPA	RE24	Pos
Jun 3	LAD	L,4-5	5	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	0.003	0.37	C
Jun 13	PHI	L,4-5	4	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0.081	0.62	C
Jun 18	CHC	W,5-1	4	4	0	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	0.194	2.04	C
Jun 23	MON	L,1-5	4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	-0.004	-0.15	C
Jun 28	STL	L,2-3	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	-0.128	-0.91	C
July	Opp	Rslt	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	GDP	BOP	WPA	RE24	Pos
Jul 3	PIT	W,6-2	4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	-0.018	0.33	C
Jul 8	CIN	W,7-5	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	-0.054	-0.52	C
Jul 13	HOU	W,10-1	4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	-0.097	-0.30	C
Jul 31	MON	W,5-2	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	4	0.033	0.55	C
August	Opp	Rslt	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	GDP	BOP	WPA	RE24	Pos
Aug 5	CHC	W,7-2	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	-0.005	-0.83	C
Aug 11	CHC	W,6-2	4	3	2	2	0	0	2	4	1	0	4	0.379	3.37	C
Aug 21	SFG	L,2-3	4	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0.027	0.66	C
Aug 26	LAD	L,1-6	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	0.002	-0.27	C
Sept.	Opp	Rslt	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	GDP	BOP	WPA	RE24	Pos
Sep 1	SFG	W,4-3	4	4	1	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	4	0.074	0.61	1B C
Sep 7	LAD	L,6-7	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	-0.011	0.54	C
Sep 12	STL	W,7-6	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	-0.015	-0.08	C
Sep 17	PHI	L,1-5	4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	-0.031	-0.29	C
Sep 27	PIT	L,7-8	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	4	-0.199	-1.14	C
1986	Opp	Rslt	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	GDP	BOP	WPA	RE24	Pos
Apr 12	PHI	L,8-9	7	6	1	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	0.092	-0.30	C

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/17/2012.

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Steven

12 years ago

Ted Simmons hit line drives every time I saw him play.

thomas

Fantastic work!!

DaveR

Maybe he meant Gary hit three-run homers OFF of him every time he faced the greatest catcher he ever threw to!

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John Autin

Reply to DaveR

Hmmm … That’s clearly not what he meant, but maybe it did unconsciously affect his memory. Carter hit Lynch like batting practice.

Reply to John Autin

That’s funny, John! He probably just remembered the way he got neck strain when Carter ripped another pitch to the outfield and beyond.

bluejaysstatsgeek

Yeah, but he never walked the Kid!

MikeD

I was just about to ask that very question. What did Carter do off of Lynch? He was probably just happy with the idea of finally having Carter on his side instead of facing him.

kds

Of course what fans or writers see could not possibly be erroneous, even if some players aren’t always right. So you always put the greatest weight on, “I saw him destroy the other team with his clutch (hitting, base-running, etc.)” type of testimony.

Dr. Remulak

Lynch later corrected himself: “I remember being on the edge of the dugout steps when Carter hit that 2-out rally-starting single against the Red Sox in game six. What? I was traded to the Cubs early that season? Never mind.”

John

*Maybe* he was just paying tribute to a deceased friend.

Reply to John

Obviously so, John, and perfectly understandable in that context. I’m only trying to make a broad point about the use of first-hand impressions in evaluating players long after their careers. It’s natural that our first remembrance of the departed puts them in the best possible light. But quotes like this one become part of the historical record. And when they are accessed and cited years later, it’s usually without the context which makes their inaccuracy so forgivable. Sentiment for recently deceased or ailing players is the leading cause of bad HOF selections by the Veterans Committee. And first-hand recollections are… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin

John A., As for “Sentiment for recently deceased or ailing players…”, I know without researching it that Roger Bresnahan, Rabbit Maranville, and Harry Heilmann were selected/elected shortly after passing on. Kennesaw Landis would also fit this bill, so might Ron Santo this year. But really, _how many other_ HOF inductees might owe their selection to being in poor health or recently passing on? I’m not knocking you John, I’m sincerely curious in how many other HOFers this may have played a part. I admit I’m being kind of lazy here, but I’m not up to clicking on the 100+ people… Read more »

Dr. Doom

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

I remember Bill James specifically mentioning Waite Hoyt as someone whom the BBWAA elected due to poor health.

Reply to Dr. Doom

Dr. Doom, Hoyte was elected in early 1969, but didn’t die until August 1985. I’m not not doubting James, but either he recovered somewhat from that severe illness, or that was one mighty looooong illness.

Richard Chester

I did a little research on Hoyt. He was elected to the HOF by the veterans committee in 1969 and he died in 1984. He was an alcoholic during his playing days but recovered thanks to A.A. He said that if he did not drink during his playing days he would have won 300 games. His off-season careers as a mortician and a vaudeville entertainer gained him the nickname of “The Merry Mortician”. He later became a very popular play-by-play broadcaster for the Reds for 24 years.

Doug

Here are some I spotted in a quick scan, who were elected proximate to their deaths.

Herb Pennock (1948) and Eppa Rixey (1963) were elected the same year they died.

Mordecai Brown (1949) and Roberto Clemente (1973) were elected the year after they died.

Chief Bender (1953), Dave Bancroft (1971) and Walter Alston (1983) were elected the year before they died.

Probably Rixey looks most like someone who may owe his induction to sentiment related to his death.

Reply to Doug

Great job, Doug- I bow to your superior knowledge and effort on this.

One minor inquiry/clarification – since “year of election” is when the results were announced, have the results always been announced in early January, after elections being held the December of the previous year? I know that’s true in recent years, but has it always been that way?

For example, Rixey died Feb 28, 1963, but the voting would’ve taken place in late Dec. 1962 (if my assumption is true). Of course, he may have been quite ill for a while before that, influencing the vote.

According to his SABR Bio, Rixey was elected in Jan 1963, a month before his death from a heart attack, the first honoree to die after election but before his induction ceremony.

Unclear from the Bio whether he was ailing before the heart attack.

Pennock looks to be one who rode into the Hall on a wave of sentiment. Pennock garnered 82% support when elected months after his sudden death from a stroke, a far cry from the 16% he polled two years before. Babe Ruth, himself just months away fom the grave, publicly called Pennock ‘a “honey of a pitcher who never made an enemy” and said his all-time, all-star pitching staff included Herb Pennock.’

Source: SABR Bio project.
http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/612bb457

Jeff Allen

Reminds me of Rob Neyer’s book of baseball legends. Great stuff, definitely worth a read. Seriously, silly things like “facts” just clutter up the things we already know are true. For example, I know that J.T. Snow was the greatest player in history at coaxing a walk after falling behind 0-2 by fouling off multiple pitches. Wherever his 11 times* doing this may rank, it doesn’t change what I know to be true. *In researching this, I discovered he walked on a 3-2 count after fouling off at least 2 pitches 57 times in his career. 11 times, the first… Read more »

Reply to Jeff Allen

Jeff,

Neyer also had a recurring feature in Bill James’ Baseball Annuals, called “Tracers”, where he tried to get to the bottom of details in specific game recollections, similar to the one here with Ed Lynch being quoted about his memories of Gary Carter. Good stuff, anyone else remember this?

Jim Rice’s famous broken bat on a check swing would be a good one to check out. Urban myth or did it really happen?

Quick internet search failed to find any specifics about when such an event may have happened.

Doug,
Actually, Jim Rice’s bat split in half _in fear_ after Rice glared at it rather fiercely…

A similar quick internet search using Ye Olde Google Machine revealed many references, but no specific date for this event. He did rescue a boy from the stands who was very badly injured by a foul ball, on August 7th, 1982, in Fenway Park.