Author Archives: Ely Sussman

2015 World Series Preview: Game 1

Tuesday night marks the beginning of a highly anticipated World Series between the New York Mets and Kansas City Royals.

It’s going to be Fall Classic first-timers versus a club that has “been there before;” power pitching versus contact hitting; Jim Breuer versus Sung Woo Lee; a mega market versus one of MLB’s tiniest.

High Heat Stats will bring you insight and entertainment throughout the series. Game previews like this will put star—and scrub—performances in historical context, while dissecting the matchups that could determine which team clinches the 2015 title.

 

Historically Speaking…

  • The best run differential for a New York team in the 162-game era—since 1961—belongs to the 1998 Yankees (plus-309). The Mets have thus far outscored their opposition 43-26 in the postseason, a plus-306 run differential if scaled over 162 games.
  • If Bartolo Colon makes an appearance, he’ll be the oldest player (42 years, 156 days) to do so in the World Series since Jamie Moyer in 2008 (45 years, 342 days for his Game 3 start).
  • Prior to NewMatt Harvey-Dark Knight York’s Matt Harvey, Barry Zito (San Francisco Giants, 2012) was the most recent Scott Boras client to serve as starting pitcher for a World Series opener. Prior to him, it was Anthony Reyes of the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals.
  • Royals shortstop Alcides Escobar seeks to become the first player ever to win ALCS MVP and World Series MVP in the same postseason. (The American League began recognizing an ALCS MVP in 1980.)
  • Royals reliever Luke Hochevar will join David Price as the only pitchers to be selected No. 1 overall in the amateur draft and compete in the World Series for their original teams.
  • Six of the 11 pitchers on Kansas City’s active roster weren’t on the team when it won the AL pennant last year.

 

What to Watch for

  • Kansas City’sAlcides Escobar Heat Map Escobar has been an aggressive hitter throughout 2015, but he is taking that to an extreme this October. In 20 percent of his postseason plate appearances, the shortstop has put the first pitch in play. His heat map in these situations comes courtesy of ESPN’s Mark Simon.
  • The Mets used their baserunning to put pressure on the defenses they faced in the NLDS and NLCS, averaging a stolen base per game. With nearly a week to rest their legs leading up the Game 1, that’s a trend we might see continue…especially as Edinson Volquez takes the mound for the Royals. The battery of Volquez and Salvador Perez caught only four of 22 would-be base-stealers this season (81.8% success rate), and Volquez has just one career pick-off.
  • Home run binges have been a huge reason for New York’s second-half ascension, but rallying with the long ball will be a challenge in the series opener. The back end of Kansas City’s bullpen features a rested Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis. A product of both their pitching styles and the spaciousness of Kauffman Stadium, Herrera and Davis are among the least homer-prone relievers, despite heavy workloads. Here’s how they stack up to their AL peers in HR/9 since the beginning of 2014, according to FanGraphs:

AL HR/9, 2014-2015

 

Follow along for ongoing coverage of the World Series!

And HHS has football goodies for you, too!