Are 1-run games more common in 2012?

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There have been some funky things going on with 1-run games in 2012. The Orioles have played 25 of them already and won 19, a remarkably high percentage. (This is thanks mainly to luck and unlikely to be maintained the rest of the season.) The Athletics just swept four games from the Yankees and won each one by 1 run. The Phillies had been 11-18 in 1-run games until winning two such games in a row the last 2 days.

All of this 1-run-ness has me wondering if it’s more common in 2012. Certainly, it would seem likely that 1-run games would be more common when overall scoring is lower. When teams average closer to 4 runs a game than 5, it means that a higher fraction of final game scores will be 1-run decisions. There’s also something to be said for strategy–when overall scoring is lower, managers are more likely to “play for” 1 run, i.e. use sacrifices to advance runners, lessening the chance of a big inning.

Anyway, there’s a quick way to look up the basic numbers for such a study. Continue reading →

End of an era – Ichiro leaves Seattle

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Everyone has heard the news now of Seattle trading Ichiro to the Yankees. On one level, just a seller/buyer trade and one that probably wouldn’t have been made but for an injury on the buying team. But, perhaps more significantly, an icon moving from his only team late in his career and not voluntarily, leaving his fans a little perplexed and bewildered but, in this circumstance, also happy for the player who now has a good shot at finally winning a championship.

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Johan and the Mick: a story of platoon advantage

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June 1st this season was a milestone date for the New York Mets. The Mets hosted the Cardinals that day and achieved something never previously accomplished in the team’s first 50 seasons of play. That was the day, of course, of Johan Santana‘s no-hitter, the first ever by a Met.

After the break, I’ll take a look at this and other similar games.

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Quiz – Nifty fifty

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My apologies for botching this quiz. I somehow left two names off the list below, which I’ve added now. The answer is that these are the only players since 1918 with careers including 50 or more games for each of the following:
– 3 or more walks
– 3 or more strikeouts
– 3 or more hits

Thanks for playing, and sorry again for messing this up.

Since 1918, these are the only players to appear on certain statistical lists at least 50 times. What are these these statistical lists?

Player
Mickey Mantle
Harmon Killebrew
Jim Thome
Mark McGwire
Jeff Bagwell
Jack Clark
Eddie Mathews
Adam Dunn
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/8/2012.

Hint: the third time is the charm

Saturday game notes

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@Cardinals 12, Cubs 0: We’ve seen a 12-run inning before (right?) — but in the home 7th of a scoreless game? It began with an infield single, a pitching change and a failed sac attempt. Then: double, single, triple, walk, double, walk, popout, pitching change, double, double, double, walk, pitching change, double, double, and SO/reached on WP, before the carousel finally coasted to a halt.

Friday game notes (East Coast bias admitted)

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Braves 11, @Nats 10 (11): As soon as Paul Janish came up in the 11th with the go-ahead run on 3rd, you just knew he would make a monkey out of your humble narrator, who had wondered aloud about this very situation two days ago: “How did it happen that Fredi Gonzalez let such a weak stick as Janish bat with the winning run on 3rd?” (OK, but look at this hit. If the infield wasn’t in, the SS coulda caught it in his hat.)