If you’e reading this, you know what a star pitcher CC Sabathia is today. In each of the last 6 years, Sabathia has qualified for the ERA title with an ERA+ of at least 136. He’s the only pitcher since 1901 with a qualifying ERA+ of at least 130 in each of his 6th through 11th years. (For the rest of this post, I’ll use the term “star season” to mean a year qualified for the ERA title with ERA+ of at least 130.)

But before he became a star, Sabathia was a rotation fixture for 5 middling years, averaging a 107 ERA+ in 195 innings. His best season ERA+ was 122; the other 4 years fell in the range of 100-106. Those first 5 years were remarkably similar all-around: starts ranged from 30 to 33, IP from 180 to 210, strikeouts from 139 to 171, HRs from 17 to 20.

During his early years, many folks in Cleveland and throughout baseball thought it was only a matter of time before he became an elite pitcher. However, the studies I’ve just done studies that suggest that, after 5 years without significant improvement, it was historically quite unlikely that Sabathia would become a star.

Continue reading →

Here’s a very trim-looking C.C. Sabathia working with newly-acquired Michael Pineda during spring training.

On this holiday, I always think of Dennis Martinez, because he’s the obvious player to consider when thinking of baseball “presidents”.

It has been well-documented that Martinez struggled with alcohol in the early part of his career and apparently it significantly affected his performance. For the first half of his career (1976-1986), he had a 92 ERA+ over 1873 innings. From when he joined the Expos onward (1987-1998) he had a 122 ERA+ over 2126 innings.

Think how good he would have been if he’d been better during his prime years.

Here’s on quick way of showing how marked his career age split is. Continue reading →

Tim Wakefield announced his retirement last week, joining Chuck Finley and George Uhle as pitchers who finished with exactly 200 wins, and Dennis Martinez & Milt Pappas as those who got there without ever winning more than 17 in a season. Wakefield also wound up 6 wins shy of the Red Sox franchise record, shared by a couple of no-names, Cy Young and Roger Clemens.

At the end of 2011, Wakefield was MLB’s active leader in nine pitching categories:

• Continue reading →

Gary Sheffield is an interesting case for the Hall of Fame. As with so many guys of his era, steroids come up a a big issue. Sheffield admitted to a grand jury that he unknowingly used a steroid cream during 2002. Many folks theorize that he had used other substances as well but there have been no formal accusations or admissions. There’s not a lot more we can say on the subject of steroids, though–exactly how it will affect his candidacy remains to be seen.

What we do know about Sheffield for sure are the facts: he topped 500 career homers with a 140 OPS+, was a 9-time all star (at two different positions), received MVP votes in 7 different seasons including 4 top-6 finishes, and he homered in every post-season series in 1997 as his Marlins won it all.

Still, he’s not a slam dunk candidate by any means. Click through for the debate and poll. Continue reading →

In 2011, a player in the NL East had a two-piece statistical combination that had only been done twice before in MLB history.

• Both stats are basic counting stats that you would have found on the back of a 1950s baseball card.
• Both stats are of the “more is better” variety; the combination was a “good news, bad news” story.
• One of the two previous players did it as a rookie; the other was a grizzled veteran.

Who did what?

(Note: The mystery has been solved — congrats to jsg — click “Read the rest…” for the answer.)

Continue reading →

From Tim Kurkjian’s appreciation of Gary Carter:

“People ask me who is the best catcher I ever threw to, and the answer is always Gary Carter,” said Ed Lynch, who pitched for the Mets when Carter was with the team. “I don’t say that because he was a great caller of games, or that he blocked every ball in the dirt, or that he caught every game. I say that because every game I pitched, he hit a three-run homer.”

Now, that’s obvious hyperbole; he doesn’t mean that Carter hit a 3-run HR literally every game that Lynch pitched. But I had to chuckle on discovering that Carter never hit a 3-run HR or grand slam in a game that Lynch pitched.

Continue reading →

On August 8, 2007, Barry Bonds hit his 756th home run in the major leagues, passing Hank Aaron as the all-time leader.

Those are the facts….but does public perception match? Continue reading →

Here’s a quick look at the best MLB players named “Gary” or “Carter”.

Continue reading →

The inevitable has happened, with Gary Carter’s passing today from cancer.

Carter had a very large personality and had a million-dollar smile. Just this past Saturday I posted a recent picture of him, and it’s hard not to smile when looking at him.

I know that some criticized Carter, saying that his happy-go-lucky persona was engineered to curry favor with the public and increase his endorsement revenue. If so, he was damned good at faking it, because he always had that same enthusiasm and charm, and he did it all while earning himself a spot in the Hall of Fame as one of the game’s best catchers.

Click through for some stats on Carter’s career.

Continue reading →