Young hurling stars of 2010-11

Following our post on the young position stars, here are the pitchers’ top bWAR values over the past 2 years by those who will be 26 or under in 2012.

All seasons of at least 2.5 WAR are listed. As before, the listed age is their seasonal age for 2012.

Player WAR ERA+ SO/9 SO/BB IP Year 2012
Age
Tm G GS W L SV BB SO ERA GDP OBP OPS
Clayton Kershaw 6.9 163 9.57 4.59 233.1 2011 24 LAD 33 33 21 5 0 54 248 2.28 14 .256 .554
Felix Hernandez 6.2 174 8.36 3.31 249.2 2010 26 SEA 34 34 13 12 0 70 232 2.27 25 .273 .585
David Price 5.3 145 8.11 2.38 208.2 2010 26 TBR 32 31 19 6 0 79 188 2.72 18 .296 .637
Gio Gonzalez 5.0 130 8.78 2.16 202.0 2011 26 OAK 32 32 16 12 0 91 197 3.12 18 .318 .654
Felix Hernandez 4.7 111 8.55 3.31 233.2 2011 26 SEA 33 33 14 14 0 67 222 3.47 25 .304 .660
Clayton Kershaw 4.5 132 9.34 2.62 204.1 2010 24 LAD 32 32 13 10 0 81 212 2.91 9 .295 .615
Johnny Cueto 4.3 169 6.00 2.21 156.0 2011 26 CIN 24 24 9 5 0 47 104 2.31 18 .290 .593
Jhoulys Chacin 4.3 124 6.96 1.72 194.0 2011 24 COL 31 31 11 14 0 87 150 3.62 15 .315 .707
Jeremy Hellickson 4.2 126 5.57 1.63 189.0 2011 25 TBR 29 29 13 10 0 72 117 2.95 13 .287 .660
Gio Gonzalez 4.2 128 7.67 1.86 200.2 2010 26 OAK 33 33 15 9 0 92 171 3.23 18 .316 .644
Matt Harrison 4.0 131 6.11 2.21 185.2 2011 26 TEX 31 30 14 9 0 57 126 3.39 30 .312 .685
Trevor Cahill 4.0 139 5.40 1.87 196.2 2010 24 OAK 30 30 18 8 0 63 118 2.97 27 .287 .619
David Price 3.7 107 8.75 3.46 224.1 2011 26 TBR 34 34 12 13 0 63 218 3.49 17 .289 .659
Jair Jurrjens 3.7 128 5.33 2.05 152.0 2011 26 ATL 23 23 13 6 0 44 90 2.96 8 .306 .690
Trevor Cahill 3.5 97 6.37 1.79 207.2 2011 24 OAK 34 34 12 14 0 82 147 4.16 17 .340 .738
Ivan Nova 3.5 119 5.33 1.72 165.1 2011 25 NYY 28 27 16 4 0 57 98 3.70 16 .322 .706
Mat Latos 3.2 126 9.21 3.78 184.2 2010 24 SDP 31 31 14 10 0 50 189 2.92 7 .272 .601
Brian Matusz 3.1 98 7.33 2.27 175.2 2010 25 BAL 32 32 10 12 0 63 143 4.30 9 .322 .718
Craig Kimbrel 3.0 181 14.84 3.97 77.0 2011 24 ATL 79 0 4 3 46 32 127 2.10 4 .266 .499
Jordan Zimmermann 2.9 122 6.92 4.00 161.1 2011 26 WSN 26 26 8 11 0 31 124 3.18 6 .294 .671
Jaime Garcia 2.9 145 7.27 2.06 163.1 2010 25 STL 28 28 13 8 0 64 132 2.70 18 .315 .638
Daniel Hudson 2.9 174 7.93 3.11 95.1 2010 25 TOT 14 14 8 2 0 27 84 2.45 8 .268 .579
Michael Pineda 2.8 103 9.11 3.15 171.0 2011 23 SEA 28 28 9 10 0 55 173 3.74 5 .279 .621
Vance Worley 2.8 129 8.13 2.59 131.2 2011 24 PHI 25 21 11 3 0 46 119 3.01 7 .303 .673
Madison Bumgarner 2.8 111 8.40 4.15 204.2 2011 22 SFG 33 33 13 13 0 46 191 3.21 11 .304 .670
Derek Holland 2.7 113 7.36 2.42 198.0 2011 25 TEX 32 32 16 5 0 67 162 3.95 20 .325 .724
Chris Perez 2.7 226 8.71 2.18 63.0 2010 26 CLE 63 0 2 2 23 28 61 1.71 6 .287 .583
Greg Holland 2.6 228 11.10 3.89 60.0 2011 26 KCR 46 0 5 1 4 19 74 1.80 6 .246 .521
Yovani Gallardo 2.6 111 8.99 3.51 207.1 2011 26 MIL 33 33 17 10 0 59 207 3.52 14 .296 .686
Daniel Hudson 2.6 113 6.85 3.38 222.0 2011 25 ARI 33 33 16 12 0 50 169 3.49 15 .301 .694
Mat Latos 2.5 102 8.57 2.98 194.1 2011 24 SDP 31 31 9 14 0 62 185 3.47 8 .292 .655
Tommy Hanson 2.5 117 7.68 3.09 202.2 2010 24 ATL 34 34 10 11 0 56 173 3.33 12 .301 .648
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/1/2012.

P.S. Apologies to anyone who expected to see stats on the great Gaelic sport of hurling.


Comments

Young hurling stars of 2010-11 — 10 Comments

  1. Good question about King Felix, but he is from Venezuela and the only players I’ve heard so far with age issues are from the Dominican Republic.

    Off topic. Does anyone in this forum have any interest in the Caribbean Series?

    • Jesus Montero is from Venezuela, and when the Yankees first signed him it was discovered he lied about his age. (His listed age of 22 is correct.) A couple years back about a half a dozen players from Venezuela were declared ineligible to sign MLB contacts because they had committed age and identity fraud.

      It’s become more difficult to commit age fraud, and Venezuela has never been at the top of the list, but it has happened and it is still happening.

  2. There have been 82 such seasons (25 or younger, bWAR >= 2.5) in the past 4 years.
    2008: 23, 2009: 19, 2010: 19, 2011: 21

    This is the most in any 4-year period since 1977-80, which also had 82 seasons.
    1977: 18, 1978: 21, 1979: 17, 1980: 26

    Only other season since 1976 with 20 or more pitchers was 2000 with 20.

    Another “canary in the coal mine” indicator of a new, low-offense period.

    • Doug, that’s an interesting angle on this topic. But what about expressing those figures in terms of the number of seasons per MLB team?

      The seasons referenced above:
      2008-11, 2.73 seasons per MLB team
      1977-80, 3.15 seasons per MLB team

      The high for the modern, dead-ball era:
      1910-13, 3.56 seasons per MLB team

      The high for the live-ball, pre-expansion era:
      1932-35, 2.75 seasons per MLB team

      The high for the expansion era:
      1966-69, 3.43 seasons per MLB team
      (same for 1968-71)

      I would also suggest that these numbers are more the product of their offensive context than the cause of it. I think there is a fairly strong selection bias involved: In low-scoring times, there is a perception that pitchers are performing better, which may let them stay in a game (or in a MLB role) longer than they would given the same level of effectiveness in a higher-scoring context. And since innings are a huge factor in WAR, that illusion leads to higher WAR values, generally.

      • I agree that having more young pitchers who pitch effectively is an indicator (i.e. the product, rather than the cause) of a low-offense environment. I would venture to say the cause of the current such period is the reduction in PEDS use, not that we suddenly have much better pitching.

  3. Expect to see MadBum on here at least 3 of the next 4 years. Also, as a giants fan, I am genetically predisposed to hating LA. That said, Kershaw is my favorite non-SF young hurler in the game right now. He’s just superhuman.

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