Don’t get too excited about Middlebrooks, Red Sox fans

30 Replies

Will Middlebrooks has started off really well in the first 10 games of his MLB career. Just to play devil’s advocate, though, check out the list of players in the last 20 years to have at least 4 HR in their first 10 career games:

Player
Brant Brown
Bobby Estalella
Mike Jacobs
Andruw Jones
Will Middlebrooks
Jose Oliva
Mark Quinn
Carlos Delgado
Shelley Duncan
Josh Hamilton
Bucky Jacobsen
Geoff Jenkins
Matthew Joyce
Matt Kemp
Jason Kipnis
J.D. Martinez
Carlos Quentin
Kevin Roberson
Taylor Teagarden

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/14/2012.

Sure, there are a few awesome players on here, such as Matt Kemp, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Delgado, and Andruw Jones. But check out the career homers for all the guys in this group:

Rk	Player	HR	From	To
1	Carlos Delgado	473	1993	2009
2	Andruw Jones	424	1996	2012
3	Geoff Jenkins	221	1998	2008
4	Matt Kemp	140	2006	2012
5	Josh Hamilton	136	2007	2012
6	Carlos Quentin	121	2006	2011
7	Mike Jacobs	100	2005	2010
8	Matthew Joyce	51	2008	2012
9	Bobby Estalella	48	1996	2004
10	Mark Quinn	45	1999	2002
11	Brant Brown	45	1996	2000
12	Shelley Duncan	33	2007	2012
13	Kevin Roberson	20	1993	1996
14	Taylor Teagarden	16	2008	2011
15	Jason Kipnis	13	2011	2012
16	Jose Oliva	13	1994	1995
17	J.D. Martinez	9	2011	2012
18	Bucky Jacobsen	9	2004	2004
19	Will Middlebrooks	4	2012	2012

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/14/2012.

Bucky Jacobsen famously never played another season, and numerous other guys like Mark Quinn, Brant Brown, Kevin Roberson had pretty short and unremarkable careers.

Of course, Middlebrooks has hit very well so far, well more than just a few homers. AND the number of star and superstar players on this list is high enough that it’s pretty good odds (if Middlebrooks is “only” as good as Geoff Jenkins, he’ll still be a great player for a bunch of years.)

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Adam Darowski

12 years ago

ANDY ALSO DOESN’T GET EXCITED ABOUT ICE CREAM BECAUSE HE MIGHT DROP IT.

Majik

12 years ago

I posted this in the Suggestions section, and someone made an attempt at answering it, but not completely:

Will Middlebrooks has hit 4 HRs in his short career. He has hit them in the following order: Grand Slam, 3-run HR, 2-run HR, Solo shot. Is it possible to determine if that has been done before?

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Majik

Majik, all such things are possible — but in this case, there is no efficient way to do it with the Play Index.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Elias Bureau can determine it, but they don’t do anything for free, and nobody there owes me a favor (or even knows I exist).

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Majik

Majik, if you just want to check all the other guys on Andy’s list above, just check their individual HR log on the main player page. It’s under standard batting on the tool bar right after “Splits”.

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to Majik

Here’s what I did. I ran BR’s Play Index for Players with Most Matching Games in Multiple Years for the player’s first 10 games. I set HR = 1 and RBI = 4 (a necessary requirement for the HR sequence we are seeking)and got a list of 125 names. Only 2 of the names on Andy’s list were on the PI list, Middlebrooks and J. D. Martinez. I checked Martinez’ HR log and he did not hit HRs in the sequence that we are looking for. So Middlebrooks is the only one to accomplish the feat in his first 10… Read more »

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

For post 20: Make that RBI => 4.

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

I forgot to say that I also ran HR = 2 and RBI =>7, HR = 3 and RBI => 9 and HR = 4 and RBI => 10. There were no names.

In 1952 Jim Greengrass came close in his first 12 games. His first HR was a GS in game 7, number 2 was a three-run shot in game 8 and number three was a two-run shot in game 11. In game 12 he hit anothher HR but there were two men on.

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

As a retiree I have lots of spare time so I decided to look for other guys who hit their first 4 HRs in the reverse sequence as Middlebrooks did. I arbitrarily set my cutoff point as the player’s first 25 games. First I got a list of players who hit at least 4 HRs in their first 25 games covering the entire searchable era. That is similar to what Andy did to get his first list above. Then I got a list of players who had at least one game with one or more HRs and four or more… Read more »

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Richard @26, nice sleuthing!

I made a few random search-and-follow forays, but didn’t find anyone else who did the “HR cycle” in reverse order.

Norm Zauchin of the ’55 BoSox had the HR cycle in his first 4 HRs, but not in either order. However, the 3 multi-run HRs all came in one game (10 RBI, including a double):
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS195505270.shtml

Zauchin finished his rookie year with 27 HRs & 93 RBI, but a .239 BA and a “shocking” 105 strikeouts. He played just 4 more years, never full-time, and hit 23 more HRs.

Majik

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Wow. Thanks, guys! I guess we haven’t answered whether Middlebrooks is the first to ever hit his first HRs in “reverse” order (who knows if someone did it over a longer stretch than 25 games), but I think it is reasonable to think that it has rarely (if ever) been done.

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Reply to post 28: Those 105 SO in 1955 put Zauchin in a tie for 27th place on the all-time seasonal SO list. Now he is tied for 1700th place.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Majik

Kevin Kouzmanoff’s first 4 HRs also included one of each RBI flavor, but in the order 4-1-3-2. The grannie came on the first pitch of Kouzmanoff’s career.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Daniel Nava of the Red Sox also did this (GS HR on 1st pitch), nearly two years ago:

6-12-2010, at Fenway Park, against the Mariners (whom coincidentally he hit his _second_ career HR against last night).

It got a lot of coverage because it was a Fox Game of the Week, and his parents were in attendance.

Wine Curmudgeon

12 years ago

Brant Brown. Sigh.

brp

12 years ago

Reply to Wine Curmudgeon

Am I correct in remembering that he really screwed the Cubs over in a playoff game in 1998? I remember hating that guy during my teenage years and I think that’s why…

Brent

12 years ago

Reply to brp

From Wikipedia: “Brown may be most remembered for the error he committed on September 23, 1998 in a game against the Brewers, when he was with the Cubs. In a tie with the New York Mets for the lead in the NL Wild Card standings with three games remaining, Chicago held a 7-5 lead in the bottom of the 9th inning with two out. Milwaukee was down to its last gasp, but they loaded the bases with Geoff Jenkins at the plate. Jenkins hit a long fly ball to left field, a routine play for Brown. But with the sunlight… Read more »

Tmckelv

12 years ago

Reply to Brent

In the “it’s a small world” category…Geoff Jenkins, who hit the fly ball mentioned above, is also on the 4-HR list.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

I had a long comment that got eaten by the ISP. Here’s the short form:

It’s always good to temper one’s enthusiasm about a hot young player. (Kirk Nieuwenhuis is probably not as good as he’s looked — there, I said it!) Still, out of 18 players on this list (excluding Middlebrooks), I’d say that at least 8 represent good to excellent outcomes for his future. That’s better odds, I think, than the Rookie of the Year list.

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Well said–that’s what I was trying to say in my last sentence.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

[writing on chalkboard]
“I will read the whole post before commenting.
I will read the whole post before commenting.
I will….”

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

I wasn’t attempting to criticize you at all–I was referring to your comment suggesting that a player has better long-term odds of success appearing on the list above than getting a vote for ROY…I would definitely agree with that. (Paging Don August, Cecil Espy, Craig Worthington to name a few…)

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

OK, Andy. But even though you weren’t scolding me, I confess anyway!

nightfly

12 years ago

This post was sponsored by Kevin Maas.

Mike L

12 years ago

Reply to nightfly

Mass was typical of those gruesome Yankee teams. Nightfly-please, I don’t need the emotional recall…..

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Mike L

Mike L –

So you don’t want to re-live “The Stump Merrill Years”?

I don’t blame ya (49-64; 71-91).

nightfly

12 years ago

Reply to Mike L

You had Stump Merrill, we had Dallas Green. It’s all on the wheel, old chap…

mosc

12 years ago

He’s a good prospect. People should be excited. Maybe Babe Ruth gets hit by a truck right after the trade to the Yankees, who knows what can happen. The potential is exciting in and of itself. Baseball isn’t a game where guys come out of nowhere very often and make the hall of fame. We generally know the studs long before they even hit the roster. Not that most “high potential” guys pan out mind you, but I don’t see anything wrong with celebrating when a prospect starts making the transition. The real test is when he starts to have… Read more »

Neil L.

12 years ago

Thanks, Andy K, for the heads up on Will Middlebrooks. I had missed his auspicious start to his major-league career. Looking at his minor-league stats to try and get a sense of his history and place in the Red Sox organization, I see that he spent three years at A-ball. Does anybody know why? http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/x5yh2 He even started last year with a cup of coffee at A-ball again and didn’t exactly tear it up at Pawtucket at the end of last year either. My point is that there is very little in Middlebrooks’ minor-league ledger to suggest he is a… Read more »

Tmckelv

12 years ago

I think that the better comparison would be to put Middlebrooks up against the other young Red Sox players from the last 10 years or so. Them seem to have generated more than their share of great players from the minors over that time period. Kevin Youkalis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, John Lester, Clay Bucholz, Jonathon Paplebon, Daniel Bard. You don’t hear about a lot of Highly touted Sox that don’t ever pan out (maybe Jed Lowrie and I am sure there are a few more). But I think this is a good indicator of Middlebrooks’ chances of performing well… Read more »

mosc

12 years ago

What was that other shortstop’s name that was supposed to be a stud? Navarro or something? Yeah, they never bring up duds.