Wild Wednesday notes

(Updated … again … and again)

@Red Sox 6, Tigers 4: In last place through May 10, Boston has gone 14-5 since then, and find themselves … still alone in last place. (For those who don’t know, all statistical nuggets in these pages originate with me, unless attributed; I heard that one on SportsCenter and couldn’t resist.) The difference between their first 31 games (12-19) and these last 19 has been mostly on the defensive side; they allowed 5.8 R/G before, 3.4 since. Their own scoring is virtually unchanged at 5.3 R/G, but more level; in the first period they had 8 games of 10+ runs (7-1) but also 9 games of 2 or less (1-8). In the latter period, 15 of 19 games have fallen between 3 and 7 runs.

Meanwhile, what ails the Tigers? For one thing, the offense is mysteriously inefficient:

  • They’re 8th in R/G, below the league average, even though they’re 4th in BA, 5th in OBP and 6th in OPS over all, and doing quite well in some important situations: .278 BA with RISP (.252 with none on), .300 in high-leverage situations (tops in a league that averages .251), and 3rd in leadoff-inning OBP, 15 points above the league norm  (.334-.319).
  • Power has been less than expected after adding the Prince, even though he has hit within reasonable expectations — .318/.380, 140 OPS+; he’s on pace for 26 HRs, 100 RBI, which are below his norms but predictable in coming to a tougher park. (In Milwaukee, his HR rate was 6% of PAs at home, 5% away.) Still, they were 7th in HRs last year, and now they’re 9th.
  • They haven’t been shut out, yet the run distribution has been uneven. They’ve scored 9 or more 6 times (3rd in the AL, and they won all 6), but 3 runs or less 24 times (only Oakland, Seattle and Minnesota have more). And when it comes to scoring exactly 4 runs — the optimal figure this year (i.e., the lowest level at which most games will be won) — Detroit is an enigma. At 4 runs, the other AL teams are 60-31, Detroit just 3-6.
  • The batting order has been inefficient. Nos. 1, 3 and 4 (Austin, Miggy & the Prince) have gotten on at almost a .380 clip, presenting lots of RBI chances for the #5-6 spots. But the main guys in those spots have been awful (Delmon Young, Alex Avila and Brennan Boesch). Detroit ranks 12th with 20 RBI from the #5 spot (other teams average 31) and dead last with 14 ribbies by the #6 men (others average 24).
  • They’ve flailed with the bases full: 4 for 35, no HRs; they’re one of 4 AL teams that have yet to slam. Still, we’re talking about a handful of ABs there. Ditto with their inept pinch-hitting, 3 for 19 with no RBI and 3 GIDP; pinch-hitting in the AL is usually more about giving the starter a rest than it is a strategic decision, and AL teams average just 3 pinch-RBI to date.
  • Second base has been where rallies go to die. Detroit 2Bs are hitting .178/.504, with 12 runs and 11 RBI in 50 games.

There’s plenty of time left to tweak the lineup (benchDelmon,benchDelmon,benchDelmon), but if they can’t find someone to provide a little pep at #5 — not “protect” Cabrera & Fielder, but drive them in — and if Austin Jackson is out much longer, they may be out of luck in the division. And the wild-card windows seem to be closing already.

Royals 6, @Indians 3: The resilient Royals rallied from a 3-0 hole to complete a 15-13 month. They took the lead with two 2-out RBI hits in both the 3rd and 4th. Cleveland had a chance in the 9th: with a 3-run lead and none aboard, Jonathan Broxton walked Shin-Soo Choo on 4 pitches; fell behind 3-1 on Jason Kipnis, who singled; and walked Asdrubal Cabrera to load ’em up. He got out of it, thanks to a DP-destined swing by Jose Lopez that was so awkward, you’d swear it was an 0-2 count and not, y’know, the first pitch he saw from a struggling pitcher.

  • Of the 216 active hitters with 2,000+ PAs, Lopez is the 2nd-hardest to walk, trailing only Yuniesky Betancourt; both have career OBPs in the low .290s. Lopez hasn’t drawn a walk in his last 8 starts and hasn’t scored in his last 12; in 22 total games, he has 15 RBI but just 5 runs. (But as long as they reward the payoff stats, might as well keep hackin’.)
  • Cleveland has dropped 5.5 games in the standings in 2 weeks, going 5-7 while Chicago went 11-1 (and Detroit bowed out of the race).
  • Since a 12-game April skid that left them 3-14, the Royals have gone 18-14, mostly against good teams. That’s a compliment to Ned Yost and his staff, as well as the players, most of whom are under 30.
  • They’re such thoughtless guests, folks might stop asking them over: This was the 5th time out of seven 3-game road series that KC lost game 1, but won the next 2 — including both their Cleveland stopovers. They’re 16-11 on the road, trailing only 3 division leaders.
  • KC is also 17-19 against teams at .500+, but 4-9 against losing teams (DET, MIN, OAK, ARI).
  • Broxton has fanned just 5 of his last 50 batters and less than 15% for the season; the AL average is 19%. He’s converted 11 of 13 save opps. and has a 1.83 ERA, but I wonder how long it can last. Fortunately, the KC bullpen has really come on strong in the last month, moving into the top half of the AL relief table.

@Blue Jays 4, Orioles 1: These are the times that try upstarts’ souls. The AL East is not for the faint of heart, nor of arm or bat. Brandon Morrow and his backup band held the O’s to 4 singles, as Morrow bounced back from a Texas woodshedding with 8 Ks in 6.1 IP, and Toronto completed the sweep. The Jays got leadoff HRs in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th innings, and another solo shot in the 5th.

  • Speaking of backup bands, Toronto’s 4 HRs involved just one of their top 4 sluggers.
  • That one was Edwin Encarnacion, who got the fireworks started. Has there ever been a hitter that you can’t afford to get ahead of? His HR came on a 1-2 count; he’s hitting .314 with 3 HRs in 35 ABs in that specific count, and .288 with 5 HRs in 66 ABs in all pitcher’s counts — but just .218 when he’s ahead.
  • Adding insult to injury, Adam Jones was plunked and walked in his last 2 trips, ending his hit streak at 20 games.
  • 2 GIDPs left the O’s tied for the AL lead with 54 (2nd in DP%). Texas has had more DP opps., but hit into 20 fewer DPs — even though there’s little difference between their GB/FB ratios, and Texas strikes out far less often.
  • Baltimore remains tied for 1st despite their 5-game skid. But the teams are packed so tightly that they could drop to last if they don’t at least split the next 6 games with Tampa & Boston.

@Twins 4, Athletics 0: In 24 starts since his 2011-05-03 no-hitter, Francisco Liriano was 7-10 with a 5.36 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP, and was recently dropped from the rotation by a team with 4 other starters with ERAs over 5. But in his parole from the ‘pen, Liriano logged his first scoreless start since the no-no, stifling Oakland on 3 hits and 2 walks over 6 IP, with a season-high 9 Ks. But, uh, consider the source of his success….

  • Oakland takes over the MLB lead by getting shut out for the 9th time. Their last 20 batters made 21 outs. Their last hit was a single to start the 3rd.
  • The A’s get F’s this trimester in all their hitting courses. They’ve scored 12 runs in their 7-game losing streak, and rank last in the majors in BA (.210) and SLG (.332), last in their league in OPS/+ and in R/G (37% below the AL average). With Cespedes on the DL, their offense is “Reddick & weep”; the bottom 5 in their order Wednesday all finished with BAs of .208 or less (and OPS of .608 or less), the leadoff man was at .215, and cleanup at .220.
  • Manny is 8 for 36 at AAA, all singles. And if you can’t get one past an outfielder in the PCL….
  • Too bad Oakland didn’t pony up to keep Josh Willingham (4-1-2-3, 10th HR). His 165 OPS+ would lead the team by far — and he wouldn’t have almost single-handedly killed them in the past 3 games.

Yankees 6, Angels 5Rafael Soriano dug himself a hole in the 9th, walking Alberto Callaspo (8 HRs, .361 SLG since 2011) as the tying run in front of Albert. As if El Hombre isn’t menacing enough in general, he came into the AB perfect in 4 encounters with Soriano — a HR, 2 doubles and a single, with 3 of the hits leading directly to a tying or winning run. The expected hit was an anticlimactic infield single, and Soriano stayed cool enough to retire Torii Hunter on a grounder and the deadly Mark Trumbo on a pop to left. The Yanks went straight to the team bus with their spikes still on, relieved to get out of town with a win.

  • The last out was one of the few times NY contained Trumbo, as he went 8-13 in the series with 3 HRs (one per game), a triple, a double and 6 RBI. He’s homered in 4 straight, the first Angel to do that since Mo Vaughn in 1999. The club record is 5, by Bobby Bonds in 1977.
  • Curtis Granderson‘s 16th HR, his first 3-run shot this year, puts him on pace for 52, or 11 more than he hit last year — but his RBI pace is just 94, 25 off his AL-high 2011 total. He began the night hitting .200 with RISP and 3 for 24 with 2 or more runners on; 12 of his 16 HRs were solo shots.

Mariners 21, @Rangers 8: Do not adjust your browser. On the night that Ichiro‘s latest consecutive games streak was stopped at 150, Seattle fell 1 shy of the franchise scoring record with the first 20-run game in MLB this season, and topped 10 runs for the first time this year. It was 16-0 in the 3rd after the M’s second straight 8-run inning; their previous high inning this year was 6.

  • The Mariners’ record is 22 runs on 4/29/1999, paced by Junior‘s 2 HRs and 6 RBI in his final year with the team (and the last of his 4 HR titles). They scored 21 on 9/30/2000, as A-Rod had 2 HRs and 7 RBI in his next-to-last regular-season game with Seattle (and the next-to-last regular-season game before Ichiro’s debut).
  • The visitors scored 10 runs the night before. The last time they reached double figures in consecutive games was just over 5 years ago.
  • Seattle began the night next-to-last in AL scoring, BA and OPS+.
  • It’s the first time in 2 years that teammates each allowed 8+ runs (Derek Holland & Yoshinori Tateyama).

@Cubs 8, Padres 6: Before they walked off on the power of Darwin Barney(?), Chicago walked amok in the 5th inning, scoring 2 runs on a single and 4 passes. Three of those walks went to Starlin Castro (53 PAs per BB), Alfonso Soriano (22) and Barney (18). Out of 169 qualified batters in MLB, those three rank #138 (Barney), #151 (Soriano) and #169 (Castro).

Anthony Bass, presumed to be the first ever to walk Castro and Soriano in the same inning, also walked Ian Stewart (hitting .180 in 2011-12) to force in the first run of the inning. Bass departed, but the kiddie carousel kept turning — Miles Mikolas immediately walked Barney for another tally. In the 8th, Chicago tied the game on Castro’s 2nd infield single, scoring pinch-runner Tony Campana, who had swiped 2nd & 3rd. (He’s 15 for 17 in SB this year, and 10 for 11 in 20 games as a pinch-runner in 2011-12.)

  • The Cubs’ last 3-game win streak was Sept. 10-12 last year.
  • Barney also walked, stole and scored CHC’s 1st run in the 2nd. He’s plumped his SLG by 61 points in the last 4 games (6-13, 2 HRs, 3 doubles) — his first 4-game streak with an extra-base hit.
  • Castro takes a walk every 3 weeks, whether he needs one or not. He had 1 walk in his past 41 games (176 PAs) before looking at ball 4 from Bass today.
  • Ryan Dempster might have grown weary of casting his pearls before swine — he’d allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of 8 starts with nothing to show for it — and had his worst game of the year, 6 runs in 4+ IP, allowing 3 HRs for the first time in over a year.
  • San Diego’s early lead was powered by Carlos Quentin, who had a pair of 2-run HRs off Dempster. No injured player was as sorely needed as Quentin by the Pads, who have no regulars slugging even .460. In 3 games, he’s 7 for 12 with 3 HRs and 3 doubles — 19 total bases. Quentin is the first Padre this year to homer in consecutive games; the first since 2010 with 3 HRs in 2 games; and the first since 2008 to have a HR and another XBH in consecutive games.
  • Quentin’s next challenge, should he choose to accept it: San Diego’s last 3-HR game was in 2001 by Phil Nevin. Since 2002, there have been one hundred 3-HR games in MLB (5 against SD), including four 4-HR games. Quentin hit 3 HRs a year ago in Texas.

@Rockies 13, Astros 5: Speaking of 3-HR games … CarGo carried the payload for Colorado, hitting 3 HRs for the first time in his career.

  • Houston out-hit the Rox, 15-14, but lost the HR battle by 5-zip.
  • Since Coors Field opened in 1995, there have been 17 three-HR games there, 15 in Wrigley Field, 14 in Rangers Ballpark and in Cincinnati’s parks, and an average of 5 in all the other parks.

@Pirates 2, Reds 1: Johnny Cueto was good, but A.J. Burnett was a little better, allowing 2 hits and an unearned run in his 7 IP, lowering his mulligan ERA* to a slick 1.52. (*A term I made up for a pitcher’s stats minus his worst game.) Burnett is 4-2, and the team is 6-2 in his starts.

  • Pittsburgh’s winning rally in the 6th began with a 2-out walk to Neil Walker and ended with a 2-run double by rookie Matt Hague.
  • Burnett’s ERA+ should be at or above 100 after this start. With James McDonald at 170 and Erik Bedard at 120, this could be the first time since 1999 that the Bucs have 3 qualifying pitchers with ERA+ of 100 or better. (Of course, Bedard won’t stay healthy enough to qualify; he hasn’t done so since 2007, and has never reached 200 IP.)

 

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Darien
11 years ago

Tonight, of course, the Rockies also designated Jamie Moyer for assignment, which is a bit sad if not surprising. I was hoping Moyer would defy all reason and actually have a good age-49, coming-back-from-Tommy-John season. At least he had a few good starts in there, though!

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago
Reply to  Darien

It’s been a while since Moyer was good, so I didn’t expect TJ surgery and another year off to do him any good. Yet it is an interesting story to watch. I wouldn’t bet against him being signed by another team. He does throw with the left hand. Also, it’s not uncommon for pitchers coming off TJ to take a few months to refind their command, and Moyer is needs 100 percent command to be effective, so it’s possible he might get a little better as the season progresses, assuming he gets another shot. Like many of us approaching or… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago
Reply to  Darien

He’s not done! Somebody will get him and make him a superloogy.
And by the way, how did Oswalt hover under the radar and get picked up by the best team in the AL for a modest performance-based contract?

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

I remember thinking when Ron Guidry retired that if he really wanted to, he could probably stick around pitching out of the bullpen for several more years. (I don’t think the term LOOGY existed back then.) I’m even more convinced that Randy Johnson could pitch until he was 60 as a LOOGY.

As for Oswalt and his modest contract, he pretty much limited his market to a couple of teams, with the Texas Rangers being at the top of the list. I’m thinking the Cardinals were the other team he identified.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago

John – Is there any way to find out with the PI if a team has ever scored 8 runs in an inning in back to back innings (either 8 runs exactly or 8 or more runs)?

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Thanks John. I assumed not but figured I’d ask. I took a look at the ESPN writeup and they’re also silent on the issue. However, the did offer up one interesting tidbit. Not only did the Mariners set a team record for runs scored on 9/30/2000 the Rangers gave up a team record 22 runs that exact same date.

Anthony D
Anthony D
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

I do remember that the Cubs it in 2001 (scored 8 runs in back to back innings) http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN200105050.shtml , and they mentioned before that it had been the 1934 Yankees who had done it last. Hope that helps!

Anthony D
Anthony D
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Actually I tracked down the 3 other times it’s happened since 1900! Here ya go! The Mariners scored 8 runs in both the second and third innings in their 21-8 rout of the Rangers last night. Seattle became the 7th team in major league history with consecutive 8+ run innings, and only the fourth since 1900. The other three during the modern era: the Cubs against the Dodgers on May 5, 2001 (innings 7 and 8), the Indians against the Yankees on July 29, 1928 (innings 1 and 2) and the Red Sox against the Athletics on May 2, 1901… Read more »

nightfly
11 years ago
Reply to  Anthony D

I could have sworn the Phils did this against the Mets in that infamous 26-7 game. I looked it up, and they actually came very close: they scored nine in the first, and then seven in the second. The Mets only used five pitchers for that one. Two of them, Schiraldi and Sambito, each gave up ten runs. That’s only happened three times in the searchable era, and each time, the Phils were involved, though on the other two occasions, it was on the bad end… and both times, against the Cubbies: 8/25/1922 – ChC 26 Phl 23 – The… Read more »

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  Anthony D

Cool, thanks for the info everyone!

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I know of one game in which each team scored 8 runs in the same inning. On 8-2-07 the White Sox and Yankees each scored 8 runs in the second inning.

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago

Was checking the Rangers-Mariners boxscore with fascination and mild amusement, only to realize I had Derek Holland active on my fantasy team today. Yikes. So much for seemingly safe bets in baseball.

Evil Squirrel
11 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

Just the opposite… I had Beavan on my bench. The Mariners probably won’t score another run for him until July…

topper009
topper009
11 years ago

Why did the Rangers go for 2? Was there a bad snap and the holder ran it in?

nightfly
11 years ago
Reply to  topper009

They got it the old-fashioned way, topper: 2 figgies and a safety on a bad punt snap.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago

BTW, I want to officially nominate Jose Lopez of the Indians for “Bad WPA” of the evening. Here’s the situation. It’s the bottom of the 9th, your team’s down 6-3, bases are loaded, one out. The pitcher you’re facing has walked two batters in the inning and has thrown balls on 12 of his last 15 pitches. Why oh why would you swing at the first pitch???? (and yes, he grounded into a game ending DP and reportedly the pitch he swung at was out of the strike zone). Remind me again why these guys get paid so much money???

no statistician but
no statistician but
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Just one more example of why modern players are so much better than that those of previous eras.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
11 years ago

Do I detect a note of sarcasm here?

no statistician but
no statistician but
11 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

Irony. Always irony, please.

Albanate
Albanate
11 years ago

Didn’t realize that the Bucs haven’t had three above average pitchers in so long–didn’t even know that baseball was being played back on the year 199. 🙂

RJ
RJ
11 years ago

I like “mulligan ERA”.

RJ
RJ
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

– Tim Lincecum, 5.82 to, uh, 5.12… Eh… Oh dear. OK, two mulligans. 4.64. Hmmm. Three? 4.21. Yes we’re really not getting anywhere here.

RJ
RJ
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

If we’re talking about an otherwise successful ballplayer having the option of mulliganing a season, who’s our prime candidate? Halladay 2000?

Brent
Brent
11 years ago
Reply to  RJ

RJ:

for some reason there is no reply button for your comment below about prime candidates for mulligan season, but if we are expanding out from pitchers, I think Adam Dunn’s season last year would be the best candidate for a mulligan.

RJ
RJ
11 years ago
Reply to  Brent

Good shout Brent. Dunn’s utter abysmalness last year is just plain weird.

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

I’ve had Holland on my fantasy baseball team the past couple of years, so I’m very aware of his bi-polar starts. Like the little girl with the curl, when he’s good, he’s very good indeed, but when he’s bad…

bluejaysstatsgeek
bluejaysstatsgeek
11 years ago

No mention of the Jays’ sweep of the Orange Birds?

No mention of Hammel’s suggestion of Jays’s hitters stealing signs?

bluejaysstatsgeek
bluejaysstatsgeek
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Was that an update after the original post? after browsing through the article, I did a search for “jays” when the article was first posted and got nothing! Weird. Sorry!

Bill Chuck
11 years ago

Nine to Know: Hard to believe edition by BILL CHUCK on MAY 31, 2012[EDIT] Carlos Gonzalez became the fifth player with at least three homers in a game this season matching the totals for 2007 and 2008 It’s hard to believe that the Seattle Mariners topped the Texas Rangers last night, 21-8, one night after defeating the Rangers 10-3. The Mariners had back-to-back eight-run innings in the 2nd and 3rd. The 21 runs are the most scored in a game this season, topping the Rangers and Rockies, who have each scored 18 runs. It’s hard to believe that there is… Read more »

Brent
Brent
11 years ago

As a Royals fan, I will take Broxton in the closer’s role, provided his save opportunities continue to be of the 3 run lead 3 out variety. That way Yost can use the actually effective relief pitchers (Crow, Collins, Holland since he came back from the DL) in the high leverage situations in the 7th and 8th innings. And in the high leverage situations in the 9th, I will just hold my breath and hope.

Doug
Editor
11 years ago

Dempster’s 5 straight starts from the beginning of the season, with 2 runs or less allowed in a team loss, ties the game-searchable record for longest such streak of starts.

topper009
topper009
11 years ago

Well here are some Thirsty Thursday’s for you to chug: -The Brewers just swept the Dodgers, and according to their announcers, for the first time in franchise history dating back to 1998 in the NL. -Not a very nice welcome to Dodger rook Alex Castellanos who was hit by a pitch in his first career PA. -Nyjer Morgan now has 138 PAs and no RBIs, The 1906 version of Gene Good had 135 in his full season with 0 RBIs and Oscar Jones of the 1904 Browns holds the record with 150 PA w/ no RBIs in a full season.… Read more »

Doug
Doug
11 years ago
Reply to  topper009

Nyjer’s streak is the longest to start a season since at least 1977 (P-I is running slow now, so will have to check the rest later).

Doug
Doug
11 years ago
Reply to  topper009

Dean Chance went 259 PA between RBIs, from Sep 22, 1965 to Jul 24, 1968. But, don’t know if that’s the record (P-I is still running slow). I checked Chance because he has the most PA for any player with 20 or fewer career RBI.

Found a couple of interesting seasons where a player’s RBI for the season all came in one game.
– Howie Bedell, 1962 MLN, 150 PA, 2 RBI on one hit (May 17)
– Wally Gilbert, 1928 BRO, 171 PA, 3 RBI in one game (Sep 17)

Jimbo
Jimbo
11 years ago

Amazes me that Manny got a contract, and will get action, when he’s done nothing for the last 1.5 seasons and is 40.

Meanwhile, a younger Vlad Guerrero, who put up a 103 OPS+, is younger, and has a better team player rep than Manny (anybody does) and has never tested positive for drugs as far as I know, could only get a mid season minor league contract.

Manny can’t get one pas an outfielder, while Vlad homered in his first minor league game.

I like the pickup the Jays made and look forward to seeing Vlad in the lineup.

Doug
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Jimbo

We’ll see. The Jays need a guy with some speed and who can get on base consistently (I know – who doesn’t?). Last year Vlad had a .317 OBP and 2 stolen bases (he hasn’t stolen more than 5 in 6 years).

I think Vlad’s difficulty in attracting a suitor is his undisciplined hitting. Most hitters get more disciplined later in their careers, to compensate for their declining skills. But, not Vlad. Last year, the Orioles got 13 HR and 17 BB for the 590 PAs invested in Vlad – ouch!

Jimbo
Jimbo
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

But it was still a 103 OPS+ and he’s only 37. There’s plenty of possibility for him to contribute. I expect him to contribute more than Manny will anyways.

bstar
bstar
11 years ago

I can see your viewpoint on Manny vs. Vlad seeing as how Manny has only 1 hit in 17 at-bats since 2010. But I think Manny is a better option right now; Ramirez has yet to post a half-season’s worth of batting below an .870 OPS even once in his career, while Vlad has proven in the last three years he’s going to give you a league average at-bat. It’s very possible he might be done, but if Manny is even 90% of the hitter he was in 2008-2010, he’s going to be worth the investment.

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